Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Fuzzy Avatars Solved! Please re-upload your avatar if it was fuzzy!

XFire - As MMO population estimation tool

2456713

Comments

  • grimalgrimal Stamford, CTPosts: 2,873Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mannish
    What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

    I agree.  It was clearly an infliuence of GW2 fans that were pushing to have these topics closed.  However, I wonder if it's still too soon.  Still a lot of rabid defenders around.

  • L0C0ManL0C0Man Puerto OrdazPosts: 1,065Member Uncommon

    Xfire numbers are one way (not particularly good, mind you) to estimate population trends (as in, population incresing or decreasing), but not as a general population guide.

    First off, a disclaimer, I don't work professionally with statistics, but I have taken several courses about it in college, so take with a grain of salt. For any data to be statistically significant it must comply with several criteria, a big one of them is that the sample size must be completely random, as in, any member of the total universe being studied must have equal chances of becoming part of the sample, and any serious discussion about statistical data must deal about what measures were taken (if any) to ensure this.

    Xfire users are not nearly a random sample, since there is a specific target market for it. The fact that the numbers for total population for EA (he doesn't mention a specific game, does he?) fit the expected from Xfire only means that their average player fits the Xfire user profile. (just to mention 2 games), maybe players of WoW fit the profile, while maybe players of EVE don't, in which case the numbers will be skewed towards WoW. Likewise, while the numbers might be used to estimate players increase or decrease, it might also mean just increase or decrease within the players that fit the Xfire user profile.

    What can men do against such reckless hate?

  • MikeBMikeB MMORPG.com Community Manager Queens, NYPosts: 5,716Administrator Uncommon
    I'm stickying this as long as this discussion can be kept civil.

    Michael "MikeB" Bitton
    Community Manager
    Twitter: @eMikeB

  • ScalplessScalpless SnowballvillePosts: 1,394Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Yamota

    Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690.

    Disregarding the "XFire is a poor sample" argument (which I agreee with, but nvm that), played per day is a very poor basis for deciding sub numbers, because some games are more casual than others and that skews the numbers even more. Of course, there's correlation between hours played and sub numbers, but you're going through two correlations to get to a number and that's inaccurate at best, especially in social studies.

    XFire numbers can be used as to make educated(ish) guesses, but they're way too inaccurate to be used in calculations.

  • grimalgrimal Stamford, CTPosts: 2,873Member Uncommon

    Here's an idea...

    let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

    Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

     

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by grimal
    Originally posted by Mannish
    What funny to me is that Xfire was allowed to be used on every game thread until Guild Wars 2 came out. Even when Guild Wars 2 came out Xfire numbers were allowed to be posted because it had a good launch but as soon as it started showing Guild Wars 2 gameplay hours going down rapidlly then they declare Xfire can no longer be posted on a thread anymore. 

    I agree.  It was clearly an infliuence of GW2 fans that were pushing to have these topics closed.  However, I wonder if it's still too soon.  Still a lot of rabid defenders around.

    If you mean defender by saying negative Nancy's are just that negative with nothing constructive to say, then yes. If you mean, just becuase I agrue with people about XFire, then no - I used Xfire years ago and then realized I don't want what they are selling, mainly your information to advertisers - not for me - uninstalled the useless software. I argued that XFire was useless as a measure for ANY game not just GW2. It is just nonsense.

     

    I can measure the amount of time I spend in a game - I own a watch.

     

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by grimal

    Here's an idea...

    let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

    Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

     

    I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • erictlewiserictlewis Cottondale, ALPosts: 3,026Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by Zalmon
    I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.

    I agree every few weeks we get this topic yet again.

  • grimalgrimal Stamford, CTPosts: 2,873Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by grimal

    Here's an idea...

    let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

    Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

     

    I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

    Your opinion is noted.  So no need to keep posting this.

  • ScotScot UKPosts: 5,751Member Uncommon
    Xfire is better than pulling numbers out of the air but that's about it.
  • LarsaLarsa NurembergPosts: 990Member


    Originally posted by Yamota

    ... As an example I will use Eve estimated playerbase of 360k subs (only counting the subs in the West as I believe X-Fire is not used much in the East).

    Then I divide this sub. number with the X-Fire played per day which for Eve is currently at 690. 

    360k/690 = 522 (rounded)...


     

    Sadly Eve is a very bad choice because quite some Eve players have multiple accounts to the game. Thus your X-Fire factor is completely off the mark right from the start.

    I maintain this List of Sandbox MMORPGs. Please post or send PM for corrections and suggestions.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Rthuth434
    The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.

    I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    I think it is very useful for trend tracking within a game but next to useless to determine an overall playerbase or compare games population wise.  There are just too many unknowns about the sample to be able to extrapolate from one games data points to another games (IE come up with some sort of multiplier to determine how many players a game has based on data points from a different game).
  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Rthuth434
    The Secret World's XFire numbers are bogus, the game installs /runs it when you reinstall or download it.

    I call BS on this. I have installed TSW 3x or more now. I have never had xfire on ANY of my PC's at any point in time EVER.

    When I downloaded the installer to install the patcher which downloads the game, it asked me if I wanted to install xfire and the box for yes was pre-checked, I had to uncheck it because I didn't want it.

  • madazzmadazz A town, ONPosts: 1,564Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Pivotelite
    Originally posted by Jonnas13

    8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

    Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

    Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

     Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

     

    WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

     

    That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

    Accurate if you are calculating xfire uses. Statistics don't work that way. I could explain on here, but I feel everyone reading this thread should probably read up on how you properly get stats. I feel those that trust xfire as a reliable source would change their minds without hesitation with a little bit of education.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by botrytis
    Originally posted by grimal

    Here's an idea...

    let's not discuss whether XFire is accurate or not and just for the sake of discussion, assume it is.  So, now that we got that out of the way, let's talk  about numbers.

    Remember, we are just "pretending" XFire is accurate, so no need to chime in and say how it isn't.

     

    I already did - what % of say WoW players use XFire (how about any game for that matter) - can you tell me? If not, it is a useless tool, period.

    Knowing the % of the population is  unneccessary for statistical purposes, the fact that it is a self-selected sample is the real problem and is why it is useless to compare games based on x-fire.  This isn't a problem though for looking at trends within the game.  As long as you have about 400 or more people using the tool you will get a margine of error of about 5.5% which is reasonable when discussing trends.

  • CecropiaCecropia The Great White North, ONPosts: 3,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by erictlewis

     


    Originally posted by botrytis

    Originally posted by Zalmon
    I agree - we have discussed this AD NAUSEUM!! XFire IS NOT a good tool for populations. we don't know the % of players for each game using it - some maybe 0% some may be 100%. It is not useful at all. Only if you know the EXACT % of players of a particular game using XFire, then it may be useful. Otherwise, it is just a measure of XFire users.

     

    I agree every few weeks we get this topic yet again.

    It takes a long time for many folks around here to absorb anything. The reality of XFire's numbers seems to be ever elusive, though. Just report the thread (I won't as I'm done reporting people to the mods of this site).

    They do not allow XFire threads on mmorpg.com anymore, and for good reason. Super nerds are not representative of the average gamer, therefore XFire's numbers are essentially useless.

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • sfc1971sfc1971 UtrechtPosts: 421Member

    I have never installed Xfire and never will and in general think those kind of tools are for tools. Yet I play MMO's. So how do you count me?

    You can't use these kind of statistics because you have no way to correlate them to anything. If a game happens to be popular with the Xfire type person then how do you compare that with a game that doesn't attract that type of crowd?

    For that matter, you can't even judge it in one type of game, what if people who use Xfire are more likely to leave a game OR stick with it?

    Anyone who thinks that you can do a simple "10% of gamers" have Xfire installed and translate that to a specific game popularity needs to study statistics a bit more. 

     

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by sfc1971

    I have never installed Xfire and never will and in general think those kind of tools are for tools. Yet I play MMO's. So how do you count me?

    You can't use these kind of statistics because you have no way to correlate them to anything. If a game happens to be popular with the Xfire type person then how do you compare that with a game that doesn't attract that type of crowd?

    For that matter, you can't even judge it in one type of game, what if people who use Xfire are more likely to leave a game OR stick with it?

    Anyone who thinks that you can do a simple "10% of gamers" have Xfire installed and translate that to a specific game popularity needs to study statistics a bit more. 

     

    This is why it is such a bad idea to try to compare games using x-fire or to extrapolate how many people are playing a game from using x-fire.  It is, however, usefull for trends within the game where the sel-selection of the sample has less importance than whether or not at least 400 people or so use xfire within said game.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 7,860Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by madazz

    I could explain on here

    Oh please, entertain me with lesson in applied math...

  • TerranahTerranah Stockton, CAPosts: 3,605Member

    I only briefly used Xfire many years ago.  I found it too intrusive and cumbersome at the time. It could be a weak indicator of population but I would use it only in conjunction with other indicators. 

     

    In medicine, when we are ruling a myocardial infarction in or out, we test CK total, CKMB, CKMBI, Troponin, and 12 or 18 lead EKG.  No one test is definitive.  I'd say Xfire is like that, maybe one indicator taken in conjunction with others could be useful, but alone is misleading or just plain wrong.

  • Sevenstar61Sevenstar61 Centreville, VAPosts: 1,690Member Uncommon

    What kind of statistical sample Xfire is giving us - that is a question. Is it a true representation of the playerbase or artificial booster to some specific games.

    Analyzing features available for Xfire users: easy game detection and launching, finding your friends and what they are playing at this momnet, intant messages, game chat, screenshots, video captures, broadcasting... etc we can assume with high probability, that xfire users are:

    1. Players with big social network who are playing multiple games at the same time  - they instantly know which games their friends are playing at the moment and can join them easily via Xfire. Not necessary MMOs. Xfire is a great tool for this. These are true Xfire users.

    2. Players who want to boost xfire numbers for their favorite game. Lets call it Xfire battlefront. And don't tell me that it's a BS /grin

    3. Players who downloaded it out of curiosity and though they do not play many game they like the fact that they can launch game or games easily... or they just have it in start-up /grin.

     

    #1 - this number is a variable which change the most... most likely these are the players who stay with game for first month ot two and then move on... these are content locusts

    #2 - this number is proportionate to fanbase... the more fans the biggest number

    #3 - pretty much unknown.

    Conclusion? The higher Xfire numbers - the more hardcore fans the game has. Period.

     

    Edit. There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.

    image
    Sith Warrior - Story of Hate and Love http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxKrlwXt7Ao
    Imperial Agent - Rise of Cipher Nine http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBBj3eJWBvU&feature=youtu.be
    Imperial Agent - Hunt for the Eagle Part 1http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQqjYYU128E

  • BoreilBoreil Dallas, TXPosts: 448Member Uncommon
    Xfire is in no way a measurement of MMO players in a game, never has been never will be, have played mmorpg's for over 10 years and 80% of the people i have met have never used xfire, most never even heard of it .

    image

  • oftenoften Tampa, FLPosts: 7Member
    Originally posted by madazz
    Originally posted by Pivotelite
    Originally posted by Jonnas13

    8 people have walked past my window in the last hour. From that I can deduce that the town I live in has 55k population. The facts prove it!

    Sadly this is more likely to be accurate than the usual x-fire numbers and MMO population bullshit.

    Trying to take a tiny sample of a skewed pool and applying to a broad spectrum is inherantly flawed.

     Based on hours played from most populated to least it goes...

     

    WoW, GW2, SW:TOR, Aion, EvE, TSW, Rift, TERA then like 50 dead MMOs after that.

     

    That seems pretty accurate to me... it gives a general idea, a pretty good one for the most part IMO. It always has shown trands, when a game is gaining players or losing players. Every event GW2s numbers shoot up, F2P SWTORs shot up, B2P TSWs shot up. And they all remain in a realistic position based on their playersbase relative to the other MMOs.

    Accurate if you are calculating xfire uses. Statistics don't work that way. I could explain on here, but I feel everyone reading this thread should probably read up on how you properly get stats. I feel those that trust xfire as a reliable source would change their minds without hesitation with a little bit of education.

    There are a few assumptions that underly any stastical calculation.  

    First is a random sample where members of the sample are independent.  Outside of X-Fire's other failings, this is where the biggest problem occurs.

    The same is NOT random, it's peole who have elected to install a specific program on their computer, therefore any results used would be baised toward to types of people who install and use X-Fire.

    So, if you want to use X-Fire numbers in any meaningful way, you must intrepret resutls within the frame of X-Fire users (e.g., populaiton is increaseing among WoW players who use X-Fire).  There is no way around that.

    As madazz said, statistics don't wory that way.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member
    Originally posted by Sevenstar61

    There is 21 million Xfire users, so it's a big chunk of players.

    Raptr, a site similar to Xfire, claims 15 million users

    http://raptr.com/download

    Join your friends and our community of 15 million gamers who love using our award-winning PC desktop app. Fully customize your experience to fit your gaming style. No spyware or adware; ultra light so that your games won’t get bogged down.

     

    another version of "truth"

Sign In or Register to comment.