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So how can we discuss the player numbers

YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

As the mods say that XFire threads are guessworks (not sure why that is against the forum rules) how can we discuss player numbers after the F2P launch?

I mean everything will be guesswork so I assume it is forbidden to discuss the player numbers unless EA release them, or?

Torstatus.net? MMOdata.net? 

Can we use those as basis for discussion?

Because I think it is quite an interesting topic to discuss as most people will agree that the numbers have gone up. But how much and for how long and will this affect the revenue EA is getting from the game?

I think it will in the short therm, 2-3 months, but I dont see this game having enough holding power to keep the higher population numbers which are indicated by <censored>.

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Comments

  • altair4altair4 SkelleftePosts: 158Member
    All EA can do is give out account numbers and such. It doesn't say anything, not like the number of subscribers could. If they release any numbers it will be spun into something positive as always so it's not a number to pay any attention to whatsoever.
  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by altair4
    All EA can do is give out account numbers and such. It doesn't say anything, not like the number of subscribers could. If they release any numbers it will be spun into something positive as always so it's not a number to pay any attention to whatsoever.

    Well they could say the revenue from the game as NCSoft did with GW 2 and I believe Funcom did with AoC.

  • WhiteLanternWhiteLantern Nevada, MOPosts: 2,732Member

    How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.

     

    I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.

    I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member

    Discussing player numbers is a pointless discussion. For any game other than Eve, it's an unknown quantity and will not be revealed by anyone other than the developers themselves.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by WhiteLantern

    How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.

     

    I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.

    Well I am very interested to see if going F2P is really this great thing that some people seem to think it is, I dont care specifically about SW:TOR but rather the payment model and if it really can invigorate an otherwise stale game.

    For LOTRO it seems to have, for CoX it did not so I am not entirely convinced that it is a good thing. For sure not for you as a customer.

  • grimalgrimal Stamford, CTPosts: 2,873Member Uncommon

    We can't disuss the player numbers as there is no information to base it on.  Pointless thread.

    Mods - can we just close this thread?

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

    Discussing player numbers is a pointless discussion. For any game other than Eve, it's an unknown quantity and will not be revealed by anyone other than the developers themselves.
     

    That is like saying that GFX is pointless to discuss because it will always be somewhat subjective and impossible to get an absolute reading about. I mean come on, have you never guessed anything?

    The outcome of a sport game? Revenue of an upcoming movie?

    You dont have to have absolute numbers to have a discussion. You can estimate, guess and argue for why you think your estimations are correct.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by grimal

    We can't disuss the player numbers as there is no information to base it on.  Pointless thread.

    Mods - can we just close this thread?

    Ok so then close every thread which are not based on pure facts? That would mean maybe 75% of the threads on most discussion forums.

  • CecropiaCecropia Posts: 3,472Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by WhiteLantern

    How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.

     

    I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.

    Same reason people care about viewership for television shows. If the numbers start dipping too low, there's the possibility your favorite show will drop drastically in quality or cease to exist altogether. 

    Nowadays in mmos, you also run the risk of the game switching to "F2P". A lot of people do not embrace such a metamorphosis. It can be a real game killer for many who were consistently and happily supporting their game.

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by WhiteLantern How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.   I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.
    Well I am very interested to see if going F2P is really this great thing that some people seem to think it is, I dont care specifically about SW:TOR but rather the payment model and if it really can invigorate an otherwise stale game.

    For LOTRO it seems to have, for CoX it did not so I am not entirely convinced that it is a good thing. For sure not for you as a customer.




    The answer would be "sometimes". Since the player numbers are unknown, they can't be relevant to the discussion. Other indicators need to be used to get the answer.

    The thing is, even if you get the answer to the question, it's only the answer right now. In six months, it could be a different answer.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by Cecropia
    Originally posted by WhiteLantern

    How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.

     

    I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.

    Same reason people care about viewership for television shows. If the numbers start dipping too low, there's the possibility your favorite show will drop drastically in quality or cease to exist altogether. 

    Nowadays in mmos, you also run the risk of the game switching to "F2P". A lot of people do not embrace such a metamorphosis. It can be a real game killer for many who were consistently and happily supporting their game.

    Yep. I am very much against going F2P and if we can see more games not gaining from it, CoX was one that even shut down and other games like AoC got an initial surge but is now back to pre F2P populations, then maybe it is not the great thing we are being told it is and fewer games will adopt it.

    So even if I dont care about SW:TOR per se, I hope this F2P thing fails which will lead to fewer games adopting it.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by WhiteLantern How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.   I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.
    Well I am very interested to see if going F2P is really this great thing that some people seem to think it is, I dont care specifically about SW:TOR but rather the payment model and if it really can invigorate an otherwise stale game.

     

    For LOTRO it seems to have, for CoX it did not so I am not entirely convinced that it is a good thing. For sure not for you as a customer.



    The answer would be "sometimes". Since the player numbers are unknown, they can't be relevant to the discussion. Other indicators need to be used to get the answer.

    The thing is, even if you get the answer to the question, it's only the answer right now. In six months, it could be a different answer.

     

    Yes it is propably to soon to have this discussion. But again, you dont need exact population numbers, you need to know if it has gone up or down and if this has increased/decreased the revenues.

    The former you can get an indication from server status and other estimates like mmodata.net uses. The latter I hope can be seen in the next quarterly report.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Cecropia

    Originally posted by WhiteLantern How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.   I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.
    Same reason people care about viewership for television shows. If the numbers start dipping too low, there's the possibility your favorite show will drop drastically in quality or cease to exist altogether. 

    Nowadays in mmos, you also run the risk of the game switching to "F2P". A lot of people do not embrace such a metamorphosis. It can be a real game killer for many who were consistently and happily supporting their game.



    It doesn't really matter how interested anyone is in the player numbers. There is no way to get the player numbers unless the developer provides them. That's it. That's why it always devolves into an argument...people are arguing what they believe, not what's actually happening.

    ** edit **
    If player numbers are known to be unknown, then the player population trends are inaccurate at best. From there, the argument becomes how inaccurate the trends are, which is again, people arguing what they believe, not what's actually happening. MMORPG.com has nixed certain threads, and the discussion on player numbers has nearly died, moving on to things that actually matter. I for one think they made exactly the right decision.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by Cecropia

    Originally posted by WhiteLantern How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.   I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.
    Same reason people care about viewership for television shows. If the numbers start dipping too low, there's the possibility your favorite show will drop drastically in quality or cease to exist altogether. 

     

    Nowadays in mmos, you also run the risk of the game switching to "F2P". A lot of people do not embrace such a metamorphosis. It can be a real game killer for many who were consistently and happily supporting their game.



    It doesn't really matter how interested anyone is in the player numbers. There is no way to get the player numbers unless the developer provides them. That's it. That's why it always devolves into an argument...people are arguing what they believe, not what's actually happening.

     

    So discussions can only be kept about hard facts? Never estimates or subjective opinions?

    That sounds like a pretty boring discussion I would say...

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member

    Ask Mike B.

    He set the x-fire policy;

    "The reliability of XFire numbers is highly controversial, as shown by any discussion involving them, and as such these thread topics ultimately stop becoming about the game itself and instead become a discussion on the reliability of Xfire data on the whole. The SWTOR XFire thread has been restarted once after it got too large and at almost 700 new posts in its second incarnation people are still debating whether or not usage of XFire numbers to make these sorts of points is even a valid exercise. These particular forums are for the discussion of Guild Wars 2 and if these threads are just going to devolve into this same sort of back and forth (already seen in this very thread) there is really no reason for us to commit resources to dealing with multiples of them in different game subforums.

    My best advice is to create an XFire thread in The Pub where you can discuss this topic and compare numbers from all the top MMOs in one shot. I'll even be glad to sticky it for you. There's simply no way we're going to be able to keep up with multiple 700+ post threads for each major MMO release going on simultaneously, especially when they all ultimately break down to the same thing: a debate over the use of XFire numbers.

    Locking this."

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    Ask Mike B.

    He set the x-fire policy;

    "The reliability of XFire numbers is highly controversial, as shown by any discussion involving them, and as such these thread topics ultimately stop becoming about the game itself and instead become a discussion on the reliability of Xfire data on the whole. The SWTOR XFire thread has been restarted once after it got too large and at almost 700 new posts in its second incarnation people are still debating whether or not usage of XFire numbers to make these sorts of points is even a valid exercise. These particular forums are for the discussion of Guild Wars 2 and if these threads are just going to devolve into this same sort of back and forth (already seen in this very thread) there is really no reason for us to commit resources to dealing with multiples of them in different game subforums.

    My best advice is to create an XFire thread in The Pub where you can discuss this topic and compare numbers from all the top MMOs in one shot. I'll even be glad to sticky it for you. There's simply no way we're going to be able to keep up with multiple 700+ post threads for each major MMO release going on simultaneously, especially when they all ultimately break down to the same thing: a debate over the use of XFire numbers.

    Locking this."

    This thread is not about Xfire so please dont turn it into one. It is about discussing if F2P has a positive/negative effect on population numbers and if this is something that will last and also how would it affect revenues.

    There are no hard facts here, jus guestimates and hypothesizing.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Yamota
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by Cecropia Originally posted by WhiteLantern How much do we, as a community, really care about the population of this game? Or any game for that matter. What end are you seeking with starting what will be another flame-filled troll-fest.   I'm not trying to harp on you Yamota, but I don't get the infatuation people have with sub numbers. Especially sub numbers of games they don't like.
    Same reason people care about viewership for television shows. If the numbers start dipping too low, there's the possibility your favorite show will drop drastically in quality or cease to exist altogether.    Nowadays in mmos, you also run the risk of the game switching to "F2P". A lot of people do not embrace such a metamorphosis. It can be a real game killer for many who were consistently and happily supporting their game.
    It doesn't really matter how interested anyone is in the player numbers. There is no way to get the player numbers unless the developer provides them. That's it. That's why it always devolves into an argument...people are arguing what they believe, not what's actually happening.  
    So discussions can only be kept about hard facts? Never estimates or subjective opinions?

    That sounds like a pretty boring discussion I would say...




    I think if it didn't devolve into the back and forth about the validity of the numbers, it wouldn't be something that gets threads locked. But it does. Pretty much every time.

    People end up arguing opinions about an unknown fact. It's just pointless.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member

    You could guess ToR's population from ToRstatus. This doesn't give population numbers, but shows an aglamation of the server load reports.

    It seems server load has about doubled.

    As to revenue, you'll never know.

    You could use content release as a yardstick, but with SWTOR this is difficult since they've been storing up content since the spring.

    Even numbers released in quarterly reports can be misleading.

    The only definitive barometer of a FTP game's performance is when they shut it down. (City of Heroes)

    Even then, there are FTP proponrts who claim that it was still profitable but NcSoft wanted to make more monry on something else. (I know whatever)

    FTP is the ultimate spin tool for a game developer. All you can really do is use your eyeballs, guts, and brain.

    You'll never be able to proove anything definitevely.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon

    The mods here get their panties in a bundle over XFire threads.  It's kind of ridiculous really.

     

    With that being said there are other metrics, mainly regarding the number of people in the fleet(s) at peak times and how those numbers have evolved.  That will only tell you how much the game grows since F2P as the number of servers is just a fraction of what it once was.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    You could guess ToR's population from ToRstatus. This doesn't give population numbers, but shows an aglamation of the server load reports.

    It seems server load has about doubled.

    TORStatus is a poor indicator as it just has these undefined tiers.

     

    It will show Super Heavy if you have Heavy_Max_Value + 1 all the way to Full_min_value - 1.  It's impossible to tell where in that range you are.  It's also impossible to tell if BW has recently changed how they define each status descriptor.

     

    XFire atleast shows the trends of people using XFire down to the individual and hours played. 

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    You could guess ToR's population from ToRstatus. This doesn't give population numbers, but shows an aglamation of the server load reports.

    It seems server load has about doubled.

    TORStatus is a poor indicator as it just has these undefined tiers.

     

    It will show Super Heavy if you have Heavy_Max_Value + 1 all the way to Full_min_value - 1.  It's impossible to tell where in that range you are.  It's also impossible to tell if BW has recently changed how they define each status descriptor.

     

    XFire atleast shows the trends of people using XFire down to the individual and hours played. 

    Oh I agree. I was just giving OP another option (albeit a worse option).

    As you point out individual server caps are not static and are adjusted periodacally by Bioware.

    An example being Jung MA prior to FTP only having a few hundred players and being consistently listed as "Standard".

    EA has to a large degree succeded in disguising its alarmingly low subscriber base.

  • FromHellFromHell NY, NYPosts: 1,311Member

    do we really need to know?

    as long as there are still people around on the 24 servers left, who cares?

    worked for SWG for 9 years

     

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  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member
    Originally posted by FromHell

    do we really need to know?

    as long as there are still people around on the 24 servers left, who cares?

    worked for SWG for 9 years

     

    Not to drone on, but after the secondd server merger there were 20 servers remaining.

    3 of those are on the wrong coast in Australia and are nearly dead even after the advent of FTP.

    3 are German, 3 are French. 8 are in the US, including Jung Ma.

    It does matter because without a large enough playerbase, no matter the payment model, there is not a large enough revenue stream to warrant new content creation and release.

  • kanezfankanezfan margate, FLPosts: 482Member

    whatever population bump they may have gotten will be gone in 2 or 3 weeks, doesn't matter.

  • SwaneaSwanea Vegas, NVPosts: 2,368Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by kanezfan

    whatever population bump they may have gotten will be gone in 2 or 3 weeks, doesn't matter.

    Thanks for that scientific update backed up with facts!

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