“You can't cheat an honest man. He has to have larceny in his heart in the first place.” W. C. Fields
It isn't an ethical discussion as much as a common sense reminder, imo.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
With the introduction of the new Halloween items inside Black Lion chests I wanted to create a thread dedicated to providing the playerbase with accurate data & determining the % chance of acquiring said skins. If you decide to contribute I must ask "Please only provide factual data & do not exaggerate/inflate numbers" Provided the vast majority of submitted data is correct we can begin to determine the actual % chance a player has of acquiring said skins per chest.
As a additional study, please also report if you loot one of the other new items that have been added recently. Permanent Bank, Permanent Black Lion Trader etc
Unfortunately at this time I cannot contribute personally as I am at work, but feel free to add your own. I will do my best to update daily provided the opportunity arises.
Black Lion Chests Opened: 392
Probability of a Halloween skin using current sample data: .0153
I saw this happen in STO with their Winter event and I unsubbed very shortly afterwards. Now Cryptic/PWE shoves all the good stuff behind their lockboxes. Even knowing that the rate is horrible, people will still spend their cash in attempts to get a winning chest in that game and in GW2. Even if most of us weigh the odds and abstain, Anet still makes a ton off those who don't. Sad, because the skins could have been handled in a way that gets them a reasonable return without alienating as many of its players.
Pretty crazy that people are supporting the system and flaming those who lost money.
They sell rather useless junk keys, why would the rest of us care?
It is a fun game and you really dont need this stuff. Or you could farm the keys just like anything else, or buy it for real money.
As I see it they pay the money I would pay for monthly fees for me, thankyou guys.
And they havnt actually lost money, they bought stuff for it. They knew what they were buying. No one feels sorry for me when I buy Guiness for my money. No one forced either of us.
And it is not like they actually got better characters for this, but they already knew that one they bought their keys.
So what is your problem? People dont whine when someone buy a new flying mounts in Wow or whatever.
This game is only played mostly for cosmetic looks. There is no other thing to do endgame than get cool looking sets. The PVP is optional and nothing else to play for really once you get to 80.
Also, no lions arch is not ever full, no town or city is FULL. You see more people there, but people are never standing around looking at your armor in cities.
So, you would want these armor sets to run around in and look cool for yourself while you are in dungeons and farming and etc.
Town clothes is garbage. They have sets in the store now that work in combat, why not make the halloween sets the same so us that want them in combat can use them>?
AHH - I get booted to LA overflow everytime I go there on Gandara. SO yes the town is full
THEY ARE A RIPOFF. THE GAME IS PERFECTLY PLAYABLE AND AWESOME WITHOUT BUYING ANYTHING FROM THE SHOP. SKINS TAKE TIME AND MONEY TO AQUIRE.
Once again... DO NOT BUY KEYS!!! THEY ARE PRETTY MUCH WORTHLESS.
ahh, sorry, I misunderstood you.
Another thing is that I was gonna sell my stock of chests in this event and this super low rate has apparently killed the market
Really? I think you should hold out a tittle longer. I respected your thread and your prediction as well that prices were going to go up. I still think they will to be honest.
The BLCs didn't go up in price from 16 cp a piece?
No it appears they capped out value wise right before the event. Now they are back down to 8-9c and will likely drop. The early adopters should be thanked in this case. We spent our money and took our chances. We all know the drop rate is bawls now.
No one is buying those freaking keys now. I'm in a guild with like 250 members.. andeverytime someone logs on to ask about the chests (first time logging on for the event).. They get spammed with DONT BUY ANY ITS A RIP OFF!
Correction.. dropped to 6c in the last hour.
This drop rate is actually causing quite a lot of bad feeling already... which is a shame because the event itself is awesome.
The falling price of the chests is a very good indicator as to how a lot of folks are seeing this situation I think. It's obvious most are choosing to simply not engage in something that they were previously excited about (gaining those skins I mean).
The price of chests has not dropped at all - it's UP. At 6 copper, the price of chests is 3X what it was before the announcement of the chests having event items. That's how speculation works. Anyone that invested in the chests a 2 copper has long since cleaned up and moved on.
Any volatile trading, especially trading based on news and perceived demand is over before most people even knew it started. This is true whether you're trading Gobs of Ectoplasm, Sticks of Butter, BLCs or even real-life stocks and currency.
When the news hits that something might be in demand, a lot of people buy it up. There are multiple reasons for it. The top ones are:
profit on short term turn around before it adjusts
attempt to control or corner the market
personal ownership or use "before it's all gone" (sadly, this is a very real and powerful factor)
This means there is far more demand for it in those first few hours or first day than there ever will be. Ever.
These spikes and anomalies in price are most noticeable and most drastic when non-investors and novice speculators get involved in the trading, and their impact is disasterous on two levels.
Oversaturation - there are a finite amount of people that want or need something, so if the resource/product far exceeds the demand and the number of people with that resource far exceeds the number of people that want it, the resource/product quickly devalues as quantity and competition take their toll.
Future Avoidance - Most non-investors and novice speculators often have a use or affinity for the resource/product, but after getting burnt - emotionally or financially - on what they thought was a major moment for them, it leaves them jaded about the resource/product afterwards. Basically, it takes a lot of the less invested consumers (the largest pool) out of the market entirely.
The "Death of Superman" comic is a classic example of the above scenario happening in real life.
"It's obvious most are choosing to simply not engage in something that they were previously excited about (gaining those skins I mean)." - Vesavius
That's an unfortunate byproduct of all this. It's entirely possible that the next big announcement of BLC specials will probably be met with far less enthusiasm as many drop out of both the speculative investment and the actual use of the chests. The good thing is that - if MMO gamers finally figure out how to learn from history - there will be less of a spike next time and the johnny-come-lately will not get as burnt because he won't be buying up a couple hundred chests at 8x their value expecting 20x return. The bad part is that ArenaNet will probably have to really market the chests well next time or they will be met with rather lackluster response form the players.
However, the sad reality is most likely that players will not learn from history, will not actually figure out what happened here that left them jaded and repeat the same damn mistakes over again... mistakes that will be welcomed with open arms by the guys who are waiting until the market adjusts back after the event and buying up chests again at 2 copper.
IMO, it shouldn't be about money, investing, and profit. It should be about cool stuff for an event. Unfortunately, the event-related item is a traded commodity, so the market plays a big part in the enjoyment, accessbility and perception of the item.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Originally posted by colddog04 I hate their town clothes sytem. The entire town clothes system in general is full retard IMO.
I agree. Why the hell would I switch out of my armour? I guess it's for the hardcore RP crowd, but defnitely not for me. I like how it worked in GW1 where my costume overrides my armour, not negates it.
I will try to find where the comment was, but I remember reading something about how there are plans and content for town clothes but they were not able to get it in by the release date so they held off further development on it until later.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
That drop rate is unfortunate. Cash shop items with rng attached is also unfortunate. Reading a lot of these replies, im a little baffled by the number of people defending this type of revenue model.
The people that are "smart enough" to not spend a dime seem to also be ridiculing the "suckers" that are throwing down cash. This is your game community? Thats not good. This cash shop will only breed animosity on a server.
Well whatever it is, we better start our ramen diets now so we can save enough money to buy gems so we can then turn around and buy keys.
My favorite is shrimp, whats yours?
It is just skins you know, and you can actually farm keys, you have 2 months. I have gotten 30 keys in 2 months without bothering to farm them, and it seems I been a bit unlucky even.
Or farm gold instead and buy the keys, each key will cost you about 75 silver so you can easily get 2 keys a day without any specific farming tricks not including drops. Then you get a key in every second chest or so as well.
Besides, this is useless crap. Skins matter little or not at all (my HoM sword skin give my swords fire damage which matters a little, it is the only skin I have with some use).
But sure, if you must have them, enjoy your ramen.
Where are you farming keys? I have played since opening day and I have 2 level 80 characters. I have a total of 11 keys and nearly 60 chests.
There is no realiable location to farm them. They drop at the rate of epic world drops in WoW (hardly ever). Beyond that zone completion will sometimes net you one.
That's what I thought. Ironically, I haven't had anything decent come out of one yet. Not anything I wanted anyway.
I don't really care what people spend their money on. But it is always the same complaints with these kind of lottery things. A lot of ppl just don't seem to grasp the idea of what random actually means. It means there is no guarantee that you get what you want. Not if you open 5 chests and not if you open 500 chests. Besides the other items from the chests are intended rewards too. That you don't want them is just bad luck for you.
It sucks to have bad luck, but lashing out at Anet over this is just silly. Not that I am a fan of this method, but it is not as if those skins are only obtainable from chests that you have to open yourself. Ppl simply got kicked in the back by their own greed.
Well whatever it is, we better start our ramen diets now so we can save enough money to buy gems so we can then turn around and buy keys.
My favorite is shrimp, whats yours?
It is just skins you know, and you can actually farm keys, you have 2 months. I have gotten 30 keys in 2 months without bothering to farm them, and it seems I been a bit unlucky even.
Or farm gold instead and buy the keys, each key will cost you about 75 silver so you can easily get 2 keys a day without any specific farming tricks not including drops. Then you get a key in every second chest or so as well.
Besides, this is useless crap. Skins matter little or not at all (my HoM sword skin give my swords fire damage which matters a little, it is the only skin I have with some use).
But sure, if you must have them, enjoy your ramen.
Loke I call BS on getting 30 keys drop, I have been playing the same length of time and with 2 lvl 80's and 3 other alts, I have never had a key drop, only as rewards from personal story or map completion.
There are also youngsters that have probably spent their pocket money (allowance) on buying keys to open these chests and being young and emotional on things like this are pretty well upset and damn right they should be.
The keys do drop. You just seem to be very unlucky. They aren't common by any stretch but they are there. My highest is around 60 and I've had about 9 key drops and then I've had the ones from personal story rewards like you mentioned.
Then i'd call you lucky, I have a level 80 elementalist with 390 hours played and i've never owned a black lion key.
Then i'd call you lucky, I have a level 80 elementalist with 390 hours played and i've never owned a black lion key.
You get one key, at the very beginning of every personal story. Not sure exactly what level. 8 or 12, something like that. Least that's been my experience, with seven alts. Other than that.. think maybe I got a key once or twice as a zone completion reward. Never as loot.
Never got anything from the chests I opened, though. Transformation tonics, single-use insta-bank access golem. Worthless crap like that. Never a permement item of any kind, or anything of that nature. Struck me as pretty odd that anyone would spend a dime on any of it.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Then i'd call you lucky, I have a level 80 elementalist with 390 hours played and i've never owned a black lion key.
You get one key, at the very beginning of every personal story. Not sure exactly what level. 8 or 12, something like that. Least that's been my experience, with seven alts. Other than that.. think maybe I got a key once or twice as a zone completion reward. Never as loot.
Never got anything from the chests I opened, though. Transformation tonics, single-use insta-bank access golem. Worthless crap like that. Never a permement item of any kind, or anything of that nature. Struck me as pretty odd that anyone would spend a dime on any of it.
Linking to other thread that had the big important update in it, that deserved its own thread. Since it would help people to take notice and hang onto their items.
This is going to be the combination in the forge all those silly Black Lion Chest items.
“Our Halloween celebrations are in full swing, costume brawls are aplenty and the Shadow of the Mad King is falling across Tyria. Because we are as excited as you are, we will add another opportunity for you to get shiny Halloween goodies.
You will be glad to hear that we are adding recipes to the Mystic Forge that will allow you to throw stuff you get from the Black Lion Chests into it to get a special Halloween chest (no key needed for this one). These chests will include Halloween specific loot and give you a second chance to get one of the terrifying, rare Halloween skins. Here is the recipe we will add:
You need 1 Candy Corn, 6 Mystery Tonics, 1 Boost (any), 1 Boost (any) to get a Mad King Chest.
We hope you like this gruesome addition, we will let you know immediately when they will be in the game – enjoy the celebrations!”
This is going to be the combination in the forge all those silly Black Lion Chest items.
“Our Halloween celebrations are in full swing, costume brawls are aplenty and the Shadow of the Mad King is falling across Tyria. Because we are as excited as you are, we will add another opportunity for you to get shiny Halloween goodies.
You will be glad to hear that we are adding recipes to the Mystic Forge that will allow you to throw stuff you get from the Black Lion Chests into it to get a special Halloween chest (no key needed for this one). These chests will include Halloween specific loot and give you a second chance to get one of the terrifying, rare Halloween skins. Here is the recipe we will add:
You need 1 Candy Corn, 6 Mystery Tonics, 1 Boost (any), 1 Boost (any) to get a Mad King Chest.
We hope you like this gruesome addition, we will let you know immediately when they will be in the game – enjoy the celebrations!”
Repeat (COMING SOON - NOT YET IN GAME)
well there you go what people wanted another way to get skins and one related to the event
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
I'll certainly let people know how it goes after this is in effect.
assuming the 141 is mystery tonic looks like 23 chances to get a skin.. good luck:)
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
I have about 6 characters and have had about may be ten keys in all drop since I started playing .From them some chests had keys too when I opened them but I threw away the transformation tonics and the mystery ones too...yikes now I regret that.
Originally posted by cheyane I have about 6 characters and have had about may be ten keys in all drop since I started playing .From them some chests had keys too when I opened them but I threw away the transformation tonics and the mystery ones too...yikes now I regret that.
yea i have also gotten several keys from chest themselves
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
Originally posted by cheyane I have about 6 characters and have had about may be ten keys in all drop since I started playing .From them some chests had keys too when I opened them but I threw away the transformation tonics and the mystery ones too...yikes now I regret that.
if you have artificer maxed you can craft as many you want..if not give the mats to a friend to craft for you:D
That link describes upcoming additions to the extra items given to players by the Black Lion Chests. This will hopefully fix the multiple, unnecessary threads about the drop rate of Chests. Enjoy, have fun, and explore guild wars 2.
Comments
“You can't cheat an honest man. He has to have larceny in his heart in the first place.” W. C. Fields
It isn't an ethical discussion as much as a common sense reminder, imo.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
Information from elsewhere...
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/72647-black-lion-chest-halloween-r-d-thread/
With the introduction of the new Halloween items inside Black Lion chests I wanted to create a thread dedicated to providing the playerbase with accurate data & determining the % chance of acquiring said skins. If you decide to contribute I must ask "Please only provide factual data & do not exaggerate/inflate numbers" Provided the vast majority of submitted data is correct we can begin to determine the actual % chance a player has of acquiring said skins per chest.
As a additional study, please also report if you loot one of the other new items that have been added recently. Permanent Bank, Permanent Black Lion Trader etc
Unfortunately at this time I cannot contribute personally as I am at work, but feel free to add your own. I will do my best to update daily provided the opportunity arises.
Black Lion Chests Opened: 392
Probability of a Halloween skin using current sample data: .0153
1 Halloween Greatsword
1 Halloween Staff
2 Halloween Dagger
1 Halloween Scythe
1 Halloween Medium Avian Shoulder
1 Permanent Bank
1 Permanent Trader
AHH - I get booted to LA overflow everytime I go there on Gandara. SO yes the town is full
The price of chests has not dropped at all - it's UP. At 6 copper, the price of chests is 3X what it was before the announcement of the chests having event items. That's how speculation works. Anyone that invested in the chests a 2 copper has long since cleaned up and moved on.
Any volatile trading, especially trading based on news and perceived demand is over before most people even knew it started. This is true whether you're trading Gobs of Ectoplasm, Sticks of Butter, BLCs or even real-life stocks and currency.
When the news hits that something might be in demand, a lot of people buy it up. There are multiple reasons for it. The top ones are:
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I will try to find where the comment was, but I remember reading something about how there are plans and content for town clothes but they were not able to get it in by the release date so they held off further development on it until later.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Official forums thread is at 760 post and 26k views.
https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/halloween/22-Chests-opened-nothing-unique/page/17#post515882
That drop rate is unfortunate. Cash shop items with rng attached is also unfortunate. Reading a lot of these replies, im a little baffled by the number of people defending this type of revenue model.
The people that are "smart enough" to not spend a dime seem to also be ridiculing the "suckers" that are throwing down cash. This is your game community? Thats not good. This cash shop will only breed animosity on a server.
That's what I thought. Ironically, I haven't had anything decent come out of one yet. Not anything I wanted anyway.
You don't even need good gear to do that, you can PvP with no gear at all.
I don't really care what people spend their money on. But it is always the same complaints with these kind of lottery things. A lot of ppl just don't seem to grasp the idea of what random actually means. It means there is no guarantee that you get what you want. Not if you open 5 chests and not if you open 500 chests. Besides the other items from the chests are intended rewards too. That you don't want them is just bad luck for you.
It sucks to have bad luck, but lashing out at Anet over this is just silly. Not that I am a fan of this method, but it is not as if those skins are only obtainable from chests that you have to open yourself. Ppl simply got kicked in the back by their own greed.
Then i'd call you lucky, I have a level 80 elementalist with 390 hours played and i've never owned a black lion key.
You get one key, at the very beginning of every personal story. Not sure exactly what level. 8 or 12, something like that. Least that's been my experience, with seven alts. Other than that.. think maybe I got a key once or twice as a zone completion reward. Never as loot.
Never got anything from the chests I opened, though. Transformation tonics, single-use insta-bank access golem. Worthless crap like that. Never a permement item of any kind, or anything of that nature. Struck me as pretty odd that anyone would spend a dime on any of it.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
Acquisition
Linking to other thread that had the big important update in it, that deserved its own thread. Since it would help people to take notice and hang onto their items.
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/367938/page/2
This is going to be the combination in the forge all those silly Black Lion Chest items.
“Our Halloween celebrations are in full swing, costume brawls are aplenty and the Shadow of the Mad King is falling across Tyria. Because we are as excited as you are, we will add another opportunity for you to get shiny Halloween goodies.
You will be glad to hear that we are adding recipes to the Mystic Forge that will allow you to throw stuff you get from the Black Lion Chests into it to get a special Halloween chest (no key needed for this one). These chests will include Halloween specific loot and give you a second chance to get one of the terrifying, rare Halloween skins. Here is the recipe we will add:
You need 1 Candy Corn, 6 Mystery Tonics, 1 Boost (any), 1 Boost (any) to get a Mad King Chest.
We hope you like this gruesome addition, we will let you know immediately when they will be in the game – enjoy the celebrations!”
Repeat (COMING SOON - NOT YET IN GAME)
well there you go what people wanted another way to get skins and one related to the event
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
I'll certainly let people know how it goes after this is in effect.
assuming the 141 is mystery tonic looks like 23 chances to get a skin.. good luck:)
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
yea i have also gotten several keys from chest themselves
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
if you have artificer maxed you can craft as many you want..if not give the mats to a friend to craft for you:D
http://www.gw2db.com/recipes/11158-mystery-tonic-s#related:ingredients
https://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/halloween/More-Halloween-Goodies
That link describes upcoming additions to the extra items given to players by the Black Lion Chests. This will hopefully fix the multiple, unnecessary threads about the drop rate of Chests. Enjoy, have fun, and explore guild wars 2.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation