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The Coming Twilight of MMOs?

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  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member
    The only reason you need to worry about where investors are puting money is because most of that is for small companys.    Companys like SOE are already developing new MMOs and will continnue to do so because it makes money.
  • KyleranKyleran Tampa, FLPosts: 19,995Member Uncommon

    As far as I'm concerned the genre has been in the dark ages for many years now, so I consider the idea of a bubble crash and burn as a good thing.

    It will open up the MMO space more to Indy Devs who seem to have far more interesting ideas in flight than the major investor lead houses, and players who enjoy the genre will have no choice but to support them long enough until they get their titles fleshed out properly. 

    Many of the early MMO's release in pretty rough shape, UO was "Coaster of the Year" in one computer gaming mags review, Anarchy Online was horribly bug shot, DAOC I believe launched with only 20 levels and quickly pushed it up to 50 in the first few months. EVE, same deal, was lucky to have 35K subs at launch but today, over 300K

    Yet in every case, those early games turned out to be real gems to play over the long haul and most folks stuck with them for quite some time.

    Today's player base expects far more polish and content than that, but I'm starting to believe that once you try to go down that path, the costs balloon out of control making MMO'S far too risky to deviate from proven past successes. (at least in the eyes of investors)

    So I say let the crash commence, and out of the ashes hopefully we'll see a rebirth of new ideas or at least a repackaging of some older designs that were never expanded upon from their early inception.

    And if not...well as far as I'm concerned, nothing really lost then, the genre might as well go away. 

    Besides, there will probably always be EVE. image

    The rest of you, can probably go play WOW expansion number 23 or whatever. image

    In my day MMORPG's were so hard we fought our way through dungeons in the snow, uphill both ways.
    "I don't have one life, I have many lives" - Grunty
    Still currently "subscribed" to EVE, and only EVE!!!
    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  • SicaeSicae LulePosts: 110Member

    Zenimax (parent company also owns bethesda) is making elder scrolls online, blizzard have project titan, SOE works on planetside 2 and EQ next, Carbine (ncsoft) is making wildstar, Trion is working on defiance and end of nations, CCP is working on dust514 (world of darkness looks far away atm). You also have Blade&soul and archeage coming to the west, neverwinter, firefall, mechwarrior online, df:UW and plenty of new indie companies coming up with sandboxes.

     

    Social networking games and mobile games is a fast growing market but its growth is not at the cost of traditional MMO's, instead its a new market aiming for people that are not traditional gamers.

  • fenistilfenistil GliwicePosts: 3,005Member
    Originally posted by Kyleran

    As far as I'm concerned the genre has been in the dark ages for many years now, so I consider the idea of a bubble crash and burn as a good thing.

    It will open up the MMO space more to Indy Devs who seem to have far more interesting ideas in flight than the major investor lead houses, and players who enjoy the genre will have no choice but to support them long enough until they get their titles fleshed out properly. 

    Many of the early MMO's release in pretty rough shape, UO was "Coaster of the Year" in one computer gaming mags review, Anarchy Online was horribly bug shot, DAOC I believe launched with only 20 levels and quickly pushed it up to 50 in the first few months. EVE, same deal, was lucky to have 35K subs at launch but today, over 300K

    Yet in every case, those early games turned out to be real gems to play over the long haul and most folks stuck with them for quite some time.

    Today's player base expects far more polish and content than that, but I'm starting to believe that once you try to go down that path, the costs balloon out of control making MMO'S far too risky to deviate from proven past successes. (at least in the eyes of investors)

    So I say let the crash commence, and out of the ashes hopefully we'll see a rebirth of new ideas or at least a repackaging of some older designs that were never expanded upon from their early inception.

    And if not...well as far as I'm concerned, nothing really lost then, the genre might as well go away. 

    Besides, there will probably always be EVE. image

    The rest of you, can probably go play WOW expansion number 23 or whatever. image

    +1

     

    Apart of EvE thing. Good game but I don't dig playing in space. So my 'safe-net' is single player games and non-computer /video-games activities.

  • PresbytierPresbytier Phoenix, AZPosts: 424Member
    Originally posted by DavisFlight

    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    I have never met a community of gamers more morbidly obsessed with an unfounded belief in their own demise than MMORPG players. I mean seriously I don't get the general doom and gloom MMORPG players posses; sometimes that alon makes me want to quit playing MMORPGs.

    In no other genre has there been such a sharp and sudden decline in the quality of products. Not only that, but out of all the genres, MMORPGs had the most potential to do amazing mind blowing things. And they did, at first. Then after 2004 that all stopped.

    Their has not been a sharp decline in quality Oh by god yes there has The quality is on par with other genres of gaming. There are a great deal of crap out there, but that is not unique to MMOs. No, what's unique to MMOs is when 100% of the AAA titles are all so identical to eachother that its hard to tell them apart. What is unique is the ever increasing snobbery and self entitlemnt of the player base. Yeah people tend to get upset when developers continuously make really bad games. i believe this is do to the intrensic nature of the internet and the fact that MMOs are directly connected with it. I think it has to do with the fact that we've had TWO MMORPG releases from AAA companies in the last 8 years that weren't shot for shot clones of WoW. TWO.  Lets face it internet anonimity is the real issue if people had to face the consequances of the things they said then much of the attitude and problems with the internet and in turn MMos would go away.What is really amazing is the complete stupidity and idiocy(yes i actually said some people are stupid) people demonstrate in regards to WoW and many current MMOs. Well when you insult WOW you kind of insult them all considering how similar they are. not everyone apes WoW and even games that play similarly are different enough to not be WoW clones Ha, yeah I bet AoC, LotRO, and Rift aren't WoW clones with one gimmick thumb tacked on, right? . The WoW clones line is more of a myth than fact Incorrect.; WoW plays very similarly to early MMOs Holy shit you couldn't be more wrong. WoW is the antithesis of early MMOs. and what we see is just a continued evolution of the genres as a whole.

    Evolution would be nice. But devolution is more accurate.

    And this a great example of someone simply incapable of making an argument. i9nstead of ingaging my points you simply stuck your head in the air and declared "nanana boo boo you are wrong and I am right". I mean come on try to show how WoW is not similar to EQ. I did, you didn't quote it. WoW was very clearly based on EQ but the two had entirely different philosophies. What's more, EQ wasn't the only pre WoW MMO.  What this really is is you your one specific ideal MMO has never been released It has, actually. so you get in a tizzy every time a new one comes out. other than really Rift and maybe even SW:TOR there have not been that many WoW clones You're forgetting WAR's PvE, LotRO, and AoC, aren't you? (and even those games have enought to destinguish them from WoW haha, no not really. Rifts had the event system from Tabula Rasa stapled onto their game, but that's about it. It may seem like enough to you, but those of us who are used to how vastly different each and every pre WoW MMO was from one another, it amounts to almost nothing. Hell, Rift even has the same UI and graphics as WoW. ). So please show me the WoW clones, actually explain how they clone WoW, then try to explain how that is any different from how WoW built off of EQ or any earlier MMOs.

    All the MMOs I mention share the same class system (except Rift), the same type of gear grind, the same quest based leveling system, the same GUI, the same tiered raiding system, the same focus on instancing and singleplayer gameplay, the same lack of any kind of depth, same casual focus by putting in global auction houses, no death penalty, GPS auto maps that tell you how to do quests, sparkling objectives, !! over NPC heads... they're all cast from the same mold, and its very clear.

    EQ had a similar class system to WoW (except all of EQ's classes had a TON of fluff abilities and player interdependent abilities) and WoW's raid system was based off EQ's raid system (both were terrible). That's about where the similarities end. EQ's world was without instances, focused on long long term leveling, group based content, shared content, player interdependency, immersion and player reliance over convenience, and each and every piece of the game just had more effort put into it. Quests in EQ involved actually typing and talking to the NPCs, there were little details in each system that didn't have to be there, more fluff in general. It feels like the difference between an adults house, and a house with a toddler in it, that has everything covered in safety gates and padded.

     

    I quoted everything you typed, but it sure is nice to see you completely backpedaled claim that WoW and EQ had no similarities. As far as your other point they mount to the equivalent of "OH MY GOD THESE GAMES HAVE GRAPHICS AND QUESTING!!!!MUST BE A WOW CLONE!!!!"

    "Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game."-Guybrush Threepwood
    "I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."-Hunter S. Thompson

  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    Originally posted by smh_alot
    I didn't read the articles - will do so later - but hmm, I don't know. Personally, I think we'll see a new dawn for MMO's after years of 'dark ages' in a sense.

    When WoW goes down (please note fanboys: not saying that's any time soon, merely recognizing the inevitability), we're going to have a hungry herd the likes of which we've not before seen.

    You can probably sell the Eskimos some ice cubes, when conditions are just right.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by SereneBlue

    Read an interesting paper by a guy in the gaming industry. He specifically specializes in MMOs - especially how in-game economies work (or more usually don't) as well as the problems MMOs currently have these days with retaining players past a few months beyond a small, dedicated fandom.

     

    Anyway what he said had me wondering if within the next 3-4 years we will enter a period where no more Western dev'd MMOs will be made and it will only be ports/localizations of Asian MMOs. He specifically mentioned 2011 investor numbers in games.

     

    Here was the 2011 industry break down for investing in new game IPs for various platforms.

     

    • 57% of all investor money went into social networking games (ex: Facebook, etc)
    • 30% went into mobile games (cellphones, tablet)
    • the remainder was divided up among everything else - traditional console games and traditional style MMOs
    • MMOs post-2004 (outside a handful) have a troubled history with the subscription model of supporting the games made.
     
    Basically MMOs and traditional single-player/co-op PC/Console games are fighting for the remaining scraps of investor dollars (13%) that are left over from the other two categories for anything new. Current stuff in development won't be affected but anything actually NEW (as in the idea was being pitched to investors in 2011/2012 for the first time) is fighting over that remaining 13%.
     
     
    I wonder if MMO fans post 2014 are in for a long draught of new MMO IPs (assuming if what he states is true). If it is - and we are in for a long draught - are there any current western-dev'd MMOs you would reconsider playing? He doesn't mention Asian MMOs in his article and I'm assuming Asian MMOs during this "draught" would continue to be ported/translated into Western markets.
     
     
    Here's a link to the original article. It's a good, short read.
     
     
    Here's another one he wrote posted to Gamasutra on the errors he saw made in SWTOR. Both this article and the comments by game developers (and his replies to them) are also worth checking out.

    Yes, I mentioned in another discussion on this site how companies don't want to invest in MMOs anymore because the returns aren't there. Being the typical forum people they are they all shouted for me to show proof or I was full of it when simple google searches can tell them what they want to know.

     

    Companies are definetly moving away from MMOs. They cost a lot to make and 3 months in you have at most a third of the players you had at launch day so it becomes so very hard for them to get all the investment back let alone make a profit. From the day the game launches they are funding making new content and a new expansion, all of which is a cost. So those month to month payments aren't just profit like a lot of players think.

     

    Now players want to get into the games for free (there's 50-60 bucks per player lost which can easily equate to over $100 million less than they would normally bring in) and they want to get everything in game for free. If the companies put things you HAVE to buy then players revolt because for some reason everything in the world should be free.

     

    The era of MMOs peaked 6-8 years ago, it has been downhill since. More competition combined with far less player loyalty to a specific game has erroded away any profitability the genre had. Some small indie companies will keep trying, but as it is only 10-30k people pick up an indie MMO so it isn't exactly big business.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,928Member Uncommon

    Certainly not going to be a drought in the next year.  Titan is also on the horizon.

     

    I do think new AAA MMOs are in trouble though.  It's just too expensive and you really need to get so many things right.  They will be released much less frequently in the future until someone blows the lid off and finds a formula to match WOWs ten million players..

  • DavisFlightDavisFlight Talahasee, FLPosts: 2,556Member
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Certainly not going to be a drought in the next year.  Titan is also on the horizon.

     

    I do think new AAA MMOs are in trouble though.  It's just too expensive and you really need to get so many things right.  They will be released much less frequently in the future until someone blows the lid off and finds a formula to match WOWs ten million players..

    There is no "magic formula" and people should stop trying to find one. One's big success was almost entirely timing based. It was the first MMORPG from a well established dev with a huge fan base and the first one to spend a year on marketing to non MMO players pre launch.

    Once that audience is hooked you can't catch them again. WoW keeps going through momentum, not its "formula". Its Formula is the same as EQ's.

    Over the years Blizzard has shown they don't know anything about running an MMO, so I wouldn't expect much from Titan.

    AAA MMORPG devs would do much better if they scaled back their budget a bit and started aiming at the untapped "niches" out there, like the hardcore MMORPG player base, or the sandbox players. Look at how much Dark Souls had by making an incredibly hardcore game and aimed it at an untapped market. That's how WoW succeeded, being the first big budget casual game.

  • DavisFlightDavisFlight Talahasee, FLPosts: 2,556Member
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    I have never met a community of gamers more morbidly obsessed with an unfounded belief in their own demise than MMORPG players. I mean seriously I don't get the general doom and gloom MMORPG players posses; sometimes that alon makes me want to quit playing MMORPGs.

    In no other genre has there been such a sharp and sudden decline in the quality of products. Not only that, but out of all the genres, MMORPGs had the most potential to do amazing mind blowing things. And they did, at first. Then after 2004 that all stopped.

    Their has not been a sharp decline in quality Oh by god yes there has The quality is on par with other genres of gaming. There are a great deal of crap out there, but that is not unique to MMOs. No, what's unique to MMOs is when 100% of the AAA titles are all so identical to eachother that its hard to tell them apart. What is unique is the ever increasing snobbery and self entitlemnt of the player base. Yeah people tend to get upset when developers continuously make really bad games. i believe this is do to the intrensic nature of the internet and the fact that MMOs are directly connected with it. I think it has to do with the fact that we've had TWO MMORPG releases from AAA companies in the last 8 years that weren't shot for shot clones of WoW. TWO.  Lets face it internet anonimity is the real issue if people had to face the consequances of the things they said then much of the attitude and problems with the internet and in turn MMos would go away.What is really amazing is the complete stupidity and idiocy(yes i actually said some people are stupid) people demonstrate in regards to WoW and many current MMOs. Well when you insult WOW you kind of insult them all considering how similar they are. not everyone apes WoW and even games that play similarly are different enough to not be WoW clones Ha, yeah I bet AoC, LotRO, and Rift aren't WoW clones with one gimmick thumb tacked on, right? . The WoW clones line is more of a myth than fact Incorrect.; WoW plays very similarly to early MMOs Holy shit you couldn't be more wrong. WoW is the antithesis of early MMOs. and what we see is just a continued evolution of the genres as a whole.

    Evolution would be nice. But devolution is more accurate.

    And this a great example of someone simply incapable of making an argument. i9nstead of ingaging my points you simply stuck your head in the air and declared "nanana boo boo you are wrong and I am right". I mean come on try to show how WoW is not similar to EQ. I did, you didn't quote it. WoW was very clearly based on EQ but the two had entirely different philosophies. What's more, EQ wasn't the only pre WoW MMO.  What this really is is you your one specific ideal MMO has never been released It has, actually. so you get in a tizzy every time a new one comes out. other than really Rift and maybe even SW:TOR there have not been that many WoW clones You're forgetting WAR's PvE, LotRO, and AoC, aren't you? (and even those games have enought to destinguish them from WoW haha, no not really. Rifts had the event system from Tabula Rasa stapled onto their game, but that's about it. It may seem like enough to you, but those of us who are used to how vastly different each and every pre WoW MMO was from one another, it amounts to almost nothing. Hell, Rift even has the same UI and graphics as WoW. ). So please show me the WoW clones, actually explain how they clone WoW, then try to explain how that is any different from how WoW built off of EQ or any earlier MMOs.

    All the MMOs I mention share the same class system (except Rift), the same type of gear grind, the same quest based leveling system, the same GUI, the same tiered raiding system, the same focus on instancing and singleplayer gameplay, the same lack of any kind of depth, same casual focus by putting in global auction houses, no death penalty, GPS auto maps that tell you how to do quests, sparkling objectives, !! over NPC heads... they're all cast from the same mold, and its very clear.

    EQ had a similar class system to WoW (except all of EQ's classes had a TON of fluff abilities and player interdependent abilities) and WoW's raid system was based off EQ's raid system (both were terrible). That's about where the similarities end. EQ's world was without instances, focused on long long term leveling, group based content, shared content, player interdependency, immersion and player reliance over convenience, and each and every piece of the game just had more effort put into it. Quests in EQ involved actually typing and talking to the NPCs, there were little details in each system that didn't have to be there, more fluff in general. It feels like the difference between an adults house, and a house with a toddler in it, that has everything covered in safety gates and padded.

     

    I quoted everything you typed, but it sure is nice to see you completely backpedaled claim that WoW and EQ had no similarities. As far as your other point they mount to the equivalent of "OH MY GOD THESE GAMES HAVE GRAPHICS AND QUESTING!!!!MUST BE A WOW CLONE!!!!"

    <sigh> so short sighted... no, they copy WoW's mechanics point for point, therefore they are WoW clones. And I never said they were nothing alike, I said the philosophies of both games are the antithesis of one another, and you did NOT quote it.

     

    Originally posted by Icewhite
    Originally posted by smh_alot
    I didn't read the articles - will do so later - but hmm, I don't know. Personally, I think we'll see a new dawn for MMO's after years of 'dark ages' in a sense.

    When WoW goes down (please note fanboys: not saying that's any time soon, merely recognizing the inevitability), we're going to have a hungry herd the likes of which we've not before seen.

    You can probably sell the Eskimos some ice cubes, when conditions are just right.

    Why? There's like, 8 other WoW clones they can go to that give them the same/better experience.

  • Beatnik59Beatnik59 Chicago, ILPosts: 2,231Member Uncommon

    I thank the OP for a great find!

    Zynga, which is something the analyst who wrote the "Death of the MMO" article also commented on, is looking like it's failing...badly.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/05/zynga-crumbles-on-reduced-outlook-drags-down-facebook/

    Zynga is awash with investment dollars.  The problem is that the consuming public is changing.  Facebook has become a place to list more than a place to live.  It's novelty has worn off, and other services like Twitter vie for the consumer's attention.  As a result, there are very few places where Zynga can go that haven't already been tapped by Zynga. 

    People have been bullish on phones.  Here's my thought.  Most of the problems you see in social networking games are also there in phone games, because the quality and longevity aren't that good.  It may get better, in time, but seeing how the advantage of the phone (it's portability) is hardly ever utilized, we have to wonder whether phone apps are just "cheap alternatives" to high-quality, established entertainment options (the console, the PC).  This market is already really saturated, and it's harder--much harder--for a consumer to navigate the field of apps with vastly varying quality.

    With everything I've seen, I don't believe high-end, high quality gaming is going anywhere.  Do I think high-end, high quality gaming will change?  It's been changing for some time now, but the appeal of gaming on the big screen, or gaming at the desk will not go away. 

    __________________________
    "Its sad when people use religion to feel superior, its even worse to see people using a video game to do it."
    --Arcken

    "...when it comes to pimping EVE I have little restraints."
    --Hellmar, CEO of CCP.

    "It's like they took a gun, put it to their nugget sack and pulled the trigger over and over again, each time telling us how great it was that they were shooting themselves in the balls."
    --Exar_Kun on SWG's NGE

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Certainly not going to be a drought in the next year.  Titan is also on the horizon.

     

    I do think new AAA MMOs are in trouble though.  It's just too expensive and you really need to get so many things right.  They will be released much less frequently in the future until someone blows the lid off and finds a formula to match WOWs ten million players..

    There is no "magic formula" and people should stop trying to find one. One's big success was almost entirely timing based. It was the first MMORPG from a well established dev with a huge fan base and the first one to spend a year on marketing to non MMO players pre launch.

    Once that audience is hooked you can't catch them again. WoW keeps going through momentum, not its "formula". Its Formula is the same as EQ's.

    Over the years Blizzard has shown they don't know anything about running an MMO, so I wouldn't expect much from Titan.

    AAA MMORPG devs would do much better if they scaled back their budget a bit and started aiming at the untapped "niches" out there, like the hardcore MMORPG player base, or the sandbox players. Look at how much Dark Souls had by making an incredibly hardcore game and aimed it at an untapped market. That's how WoW succeeded, being the first big budget casual game.

    The next big success will be one that finds a way to bring in a large group of people who have never been interested in MMOs, which is something WoW did to hit such a high success.

     

    The biggest problem with the MMO genre is that it is still regarded as something for only geeks and nerds. The video game industry as a whole was like this for quite a long time. One of the biggest changes to that view was the XBox and Playstation along with the big sports franchises, since sports weren't nerdy. Suddenly all of these people who though gaming was stupid now thought it was amazing.

     

    It is why I used to laugh so much when people who had never gamed, but had picked up an original XBox and were just discovering the world of gaming, were talking about how amazing, unique, and innovative this Halo game was. When in reality it did nothing new, it was just the first major FPS that was shown to a crowd that used to think gaming was dumb so they missed all the other FPS games.

     

    Truth is this will never happen because it isn't that straight forward. The MMO genre will evolve into something that doesn't resemble what we've seen and may not be as deep or as serious as we're used to. But at the same time that will make it far more accessible to an audience who only know of MMOs because South Park, or some other show, made fun of WoW users.

     

    Until that day the genre will shrink down, companies will move away from it and investors won't touch it. Then once someone finds the recipie to this crossover game everyone will rush back in, flood the market, kill the quality and we'll be right back to where we were.

  • ArakaziArakazi OxfordPosts: 889Member

    I don't know. If I was a publisher I wouldn't be looking to make a MMO simply because of the number of new and in development titles there are out there plus MMOs are either hit or miss and TOR has shown that even $200million (I still cant wrap my head around that) doesn't guarentee success. It would be a case of wait and see. Plus there are technological changes in the area of gaming in mobile, handhelds and internet TV and other things as well as the PS3 and Xbox comming to the end of their life cycles. There are so many markets available for developers that it's no surprise if they take a breath.

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by Beatnik59

    I thank the OP for a great find!

    Zynga, which is something the analyst who wrote the "Death of the MMO" article also commented on, is looking like it's failing...badly.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/05/zynga-crumbles-on-reduced-outlook-drags-down-facebook/

    Zynga is awash with investment dollars.  The problem is that the consuming public is changing.  Facebook has become a place to list more than a place to live.  It's novelty has worn off, and other services like Twitter vie for the consumer's attention.  As a result, there are very few places where Zynga can go that haven't already been tapped by Zynga. 

    People have been bullish on phones.  Here's my thought.  Most of the problems you see in social networking games are also there in phone games, because the quality and longevity aren't that good.  It may get better, in time, but seeing how the advantage of the phone (it's portability) is hardly ever utilized, we have to wonder whether phone apps are just "cheap alternatives" to high-quality, established entertainment options (the console, the PC).  This market is already really saturated, and it's harder--much harder--for a consumer to navigate the field of apps with vastly varying quality.

    With everything I've seen, I don't believe high-end, high quality gaming is going anywhere.  Do I think high-end, high quality gaming will change?  It's been changing for some time now, but the appeal of gaming on the big screen, or gaming at the desk will not go away. 

    The problem with Zynga is the same problem with phones and tablets so when they say they're looking into phones they're far too late.

     

    They jumped onto the casual game bandwagon. With facebook and smartphones, all of these people who had never gamed suddenly found these little games. Just as all of us did when we first encoutered video games, they were amazed. So they went nuts and bought lots of little $2 games or planted crops on a farm.

    Companies like Zynga saw this and flooded the market with games (in Zynga's case almost all of which were complete ripoffs of existing games so it is even nicer to see them crumble. Then again angry birds is a rip off of the catapult games that have existed on flash gaming sites for years). The quality got worse, the sheer number went through the roof. So suddenly companies weren't seeing these huge profits that the first few people into the market saw.

     

    Same happens with every new medium. When XBox launched the indie arcade, the first few people to through a game up there made good money because there was no choice and it was something new. The rest of the people jumping in didn't do as well. Hell there's that guy whoon every new platform releases the fart noise maker and sells millions of copies.

     

    I think we'll see a lot of crappy companies die off and that will help get rid of a lot of the lower quality stuff. A few more solid companies will rise from the dust and we'll see some pretty decent things come out on tablets, phones, and even facebook.

  • DavisFlightDavisFlight Talahasee, FLPosts: 2,556Member
    Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Certainly not going to be a drought in the next year.  Titan is also on the horizon.

     

    I do think new AAA MMOs are in trouble though.  It's just too expensive and you really need to get so many things right.  They will be released much less frequently in the future until someone blows the lid off and finds a formula to match WOWs ten million players..

    There is no "magic formula" and people should stop trying to find one. One's big success was almost entirely timing based. It was the first MMORPG from a well established dev with a huge fan base and the first one to spend a year on marketing to non MMO players pre launch.

    Once that audience is hooked you can't catch them again. WoW keeps going through momentum, not its "formula". Its Formula is the same as EQ's.

    Over the years Blizzard has shown they don't know anything about running an MMO, so I wouldn't expect much from Titan.

    AAA MMORPG devs would do much better if they scaled back their budget a bit and started aiming at the untapped "niches" out there, like the hardcore MMORPG player base, or the sandbox players. Look at how much Dark Souls had by making an incredibly hardcore game and aimed it at an untapped market. That's how WoW succeeded, being the first big budget casual game.

    The next big success will be one that finds a way to bring in a large group of people who have never been interested in MMOs, which is something WoW did to hit such a high success.

     

    The biggest problem with the MMO genre is that it is still regarded as something for only geeks and nerds. The video game industry as a whole was like this for quite a long time. One of the biggest changes to that view was the XBox and Playstation along with the big sports franchises, since sports weren't nerdy. Suddenly all of these people who though gaming was stupid now thought it was amazing.

     

    It is why I used to laugh so much when people who had never gamed, but had picked up an original XBox and were just discovering the world of gaming, were talking about how amazing, unique, and innovative this Halo game was. When in reality it did nothing new, it was just the first major FPS that was shown to a crowd that used to think gaming was dumb so they missed all the other FPS games.

     

    Truth is this will never happen because it isn't that straight forward. The MMO genre will evolve into something that doesn't resemble what we've seen and may not be as deep or as serious as we're used to. But at the same time that will make it far more accessible to an audience who only know of MMOs because South Park, or some other show, made fun of WoW users.

     

    Until that day the genre will shrink down, companies will move away from it and investors won't touch it. Then once someone finds the recipie to this crossover game everyone will rush back in, flood the market, kill the quality and we'll be right back to where we were.

    Once all the people that don't actually like MMOs are gone, then we can have our innovative and exciting genre back. As soon as the publishers come in, it all goes to hell again. Unless you get a big name publisher that actually understands MMOs, like SoE is proving they are, with stuff like Planetside 2.

  • PresbytierPresbytier Phoenix, AZPosts: 424Member

    Originally posted by DavisFlight

    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    Originally posted by DavisFlight
    Originally posted by Presbytier
    I have never met a community of gamers more morbidly obsessed with an unfounded belief in their own demise than MMORPG players. I mean seriously I don't get the general doom and gloom MMORPG players posses; sometimes that alon makes me want to quit playing MMORPGs.

    In no other genre has there been such a sharp and sudden decline in the quality of products. Not only that, but out of all the genres, MMORPGs had the most potential to do amazing mind blowing things. And they did, at first. Then after 2004 that all stopped.

    Their has not been a sharp decline in quality Oh by god yes there has The quality is on par with other genres of gaming. There are a great deal of crap out there, but that is not unique to MMOs. No, what's unique to MMOs is when 100% of the AAA titles are all so identical to eachother that its hard to tell them apart. What is unique is the ever increasing snobbery and self entitlemnt of the player base. Yeah people tend to get upset when developers continuously make really bad games. i believe this is do to the intrensic nature of the internet and the fact that MMOs are directly connected with it. I think it has to do with the fact that we've had TWO MMORPG releases from AAA companies in the last 8 years that weren't shot for shot clones of WoW. TWO.  Lets face it internet anonimity is the real issue if people had to face the consequances of the things they said then much of the attitude and problems with the internet and in turn MMos would go away.What is really amazing is the complete stupidity and idiocy(yes i actually said some people are stupid) people demonstrate in regards to WoW and many current MMOs. Well when you insult WOW you kind of insult them all considering how similar they are. not everyone apes WoW and even games that play similarly are different enough to not be WoW clones Ha, yeah I bet AoC, LotRO, and Rift aren't WoW clones with one gimmick thumb tacked on, right? . The WoW clones line is more of a myth than fact Incorrect.; WoW plays very similarly to early MMOs Holy shit you couldn't be more wrong. WoW is the antithesis of early MMOs. and what we see is just a continued evolution of the genres as a whole.

    Evolution would be nice. But devolution is more accurate.

    And this a great example of someone simply incapable of making an argument. i9nstead of ingaging my points you simply stuck your head in the air and declared "nanana boo boo you are wrong and I am right". I mean come on try to show how WoW is not similar to EQ. I did, you didn't quote it. WoW was very clearly based on EQ but the two had entirely different philosophies. What's more, EQ wasn't the only pre WoW MMO.  What this really is is you your one specific ideal MMO has never been released It has, actually. so you get in a tizzy every time a new one comes out. other than really Rift and maybe even SW:TOR there have not been that many WoW clones You're forgetting WAR's PvE, LotRO, and AoC, aren't you? (and even those games have enought to destinguish them from WoW haha, no not really. Rifts had the event system from Tabula Rasa stapled onto their game, but that's about it. It may seem like enough to you, but those of us who are used to how vastly different each and every pre WoW MMO was from one another, it amounts to almost nothing. Hell, Rift even has the same UI and graphics as WoW. ). So please show me the WoW clones, actually explain how they clone WoW, then try to explain how that is any different from how WoW built off of EQ or any earlier MMOs.

    All the MMOs I mention share the same class system (except Rift), the same type of gear grind, the same quest based leveling system, the same GUI, the same tiered raiding system, the same focus on instancing and singleplayer gameplay, the same lack of any kind of depth, same casual focus by putting in global auction houses, no death penalty, GPS auto maps that tell you how to do quests, sparkling objectives, !! over NPC heads... they're all cast from the same mold, and its very clear.

    EQ had a similar class system to WoW (except all of EQ's classes had a TON of fluff abilities and player interdependent abilities) and WoW's raid system was based off EQ's raid system (both were terrible). That's about where the similarities end. EQ's world was without instances, focused on long long term leveling, group based content, shared content, player interdependency, immersion and player reliance over convenience, and each and every piece of the game just had more effort put into it. Quests in EQ involved actually typing and talking to the NPCs, there were little details in each system that didn't have to be there, more fluff in general. It feels like the difference between an adults house, and a house with a toddler in it, that has everything covered in safety gates and padded.

     

    I quoted everything you typed, but it sure is nice to see you completely backpedaled claim that WoW and EQ had no similarities. As far as your other point they mount to the equivalent of "OH MY GOD THESE GAMES HAVE GRAPHICS AND QUESTING!!!!MUST BE A WOW CLONE!!!!"

    so short sighted... no, they copy WoW's mechanics point for point, therefore they are WoW clones. And I never said they were nothing alike, I said the philosophies of both games are the antithesis of one another, and you did NOT quote it.

     

    Originally posted by Icewhite
    Originally posted by smh_alot
    I didn't read the articles - will do so later - but hmm, I don't know. Personally, I think we'll see a new dawn for MMO's after years of 'dark ages' in a sense.

    When WoW goes down (please note fanboys: not saying that's any time soon, merely recognizing the inevitability), we're going to have a hungry herd the likes of which we've not before seen.

    You can probably sell the Eskimos some ice cubes, when conditions are just right.

    Why? There's like, 8 other WoW clones they can go to that give them the same/better experience.

     

    You added some items after I quoted you originally, and no where in there did you say what you claim to be saying now. The fact is many great MMOs have come out building upon there predecessors; it is obvious you are simply a WoW hater(and for the record I don't even play WoW much at all), and you have allowed your unmitigated hate to completely cloud any and all rational that in relation to MMOs.

    "Never pay more than 20 bucks for a computer game."-Guybrush Threepwood
    "I hate to advocate drugs, alcohol, violence, or insanity to anyone, but they've always worked for me."-Hunter S. Thompson

  • ArakaziArakazi OxfordPosts: 889Member
    Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
    Originally posted by Beatnik59

    I thank the OP for a great find!

    Zynga, which is something the analyst who wrote the "Death of the MMO" article also commented on, is looking like it's failing...badly.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/10/05/zynga-crumbles-on-reduced-outlook-drags-down-facebook/

    Zynga is awash with investment dollars.  The problem is that the consuming public is changing.  Facebook has become a place to list more than a place to live.  It's novelty has worn off, and other services like Twitter vie for the consumer's attention.  As a result, there are very few places where Zynga can go that haven't already been tapped by Zynga. 

    People have been bullish on phones.  Here's my thought.  Most of the problems you see in social networking games are also there in phone games, because the quality and longevity aren't that good.  It may get better, in time, but seeing how the advantage of the phone (it's portability) is hardly ever utilized, we have to wonder whether phone apps are just "cheap alternatives" to high-quality, established entertainment options (the console, the PC).  This market is already really saturated, and it's harder--much harder--for a consumer to navigate the field of apps with vastly varying quality.

    With everything I've seen, I don't believe high-end, high quality gaming is going anywhere.  Do I think high-end, high quality gaming will change?  It's been changing for some time now, but the appeal of gaming on the big screen, or gaming at the desk will not go away. 

    The problem with Zynga is the same problem with phones and tablets so when they say they're looking into phones they're far too late.

     

    They jumped onto the casual game bandwagon. With facebook and smartphones, all of these people who had never gamed suddenly found these little games. Just as all of us did when we first encoutered video games, they were amazed. So they went nuts and bought lots of little $2 games or planted crops on a farm.

    Companies like Zynga saw this and flooded the market with games (in Zynga's case almost all of which were complete ripoffs of existing games so it is even nicer to see them crumble. Then again angry birds is a rip off of the catapult games that have existed on flash gaming sites for years). The quality got worse, the sheer number went through the roof. So suddenly companies weren't seeing these huge profits that the first few people into the market saw.

     

    Same happens with every new medium. When XBox launched the indie arcade, the first few people to through a game up there made good money because there was no choice and it was something new. The rest of the people jumping in didn't do as well. Hell there's that guy whoon every new platform releases the fart noise maker and sells millions of copies.

     

    I think we'll see a lot of crappy companies die off and that will help get rid of a lot of the lower quality stuff. A few more solid companies will rise from the dust and we'll see some pretty decent things come out on tablets, phones, and even facebook.

    You just summed up the last 200 years of economic history!

  • Heinz130Heinz130 sao pauloPosts: 227Member

    That theory is not proven to be persistent,true theory but not persistent,after over 5 years with no mmo hard work we have great titles with AAA level of investment under development

    Look at Archeage,The otherland,Blade & Soul,MechWarrior OL,planetside 2... and ive tracking some information about even bigger projects already running...

     

    Now,if everyone runs to profit at cel-phones and social network 2 things will happen

    1- There will be a hole on the mmo market since mmo players dont satisfy themselfs playing angry-birds or chating and changing videos on facecrap...soon someone will apear to explore that market

    2-Cellphones and social network market will be flooded specialy social networks since a single person cant uses and manage 2 or 3 of them at each time,theres not even a reason for that

     

    I see mmo glory days coming back

    WoW 4ys,EVE 4ys,EU 4ys
    FH1942 best tanker for 4years
    Playing WWII OL for some years untill now
    many other for some months

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by Heinz130

    That theory is not proven to be persistent,true theory but not persistent,after over 5 years with no mmo hard work we have great titles with AAA level of investment under development

    Look at Archeage,The otherland,Blade & Soul,MechWarrior OL,planetside 2... and ive tracking some information about even bigger projects already running...

     

    Now,if everyone runs to profit at cel-phones and social network 2 things will happen

    1- There will be a hole on the mmo market since mmo players dont satisfy themselfs playing angry-birds or chating and changing videos on facecrap...soon someone will apear to explore that market

    2-Cellphones and social network market will be flooded specialy social networks since a single person cant uses and manage 2 or 3 of them at each time,theres not even a reason for that

     

    I see mmo glory days coming back

    Me thinks you are in for a disappointment.

  • SnarlingWolfSnarlingWolf Thereiam, ARPosts: 2,697Member
    Originally posted by DavisFlight

    Once all the people that don't actually like MMOs are gone, then we can have our innovative and exciting genre back. As soon as the publishers come in, it all goes to hell again. Unless you get a big name publisher that actually understands MMOs, like SoE is proving they are, with stuff like Planetside 2.

    I was ready to jump onboard with you and then you referrenced SOE in context with understanding MMOs and then you referenced PS2 as an example of something done right. Then I changed to running away as fast as I could.

     

    PS2 is an example of what not to do.

  • gaeanprayergaeanprayer Somewhere Out There, PAPosts: 2,320Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SereneBlue

    Current stuff in development won't be affected but anything actually NEW (as in the idea was being pitched to investors in 2011/2012 for the first time) is fighting over that remaining 13%.

     
     
    I wonder if MMO fans post 2014 are in for a long draught of new MMO IPs (assuming if what he states is true).

    This is not a bad thing. Not everything needs an MMO, and not every MMO is worth playing. Gamers in the last 5 years or so have gotten used to 4 new MMOs or more launching every year. That's ridiculous if you think about it, do we really need that many online games diluting the player pool? No, absolutely not.

    "Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

  • DavisFlightDavisFlight Talahasee, FLPosts: 2,556Member
    Originally posted by SnarlingWolf
    Originally posted by DavisFlight

    Once all the people that don't actually like MMOs are gone, then we can have our innovative and exciting genre back. As soon as the publishers come in, it all goes to hell again. Unless you get a big name publisher that actually understands MMOs, like SoE is proving they are, with stuff like Planetside 2.

    I was ready to jump onboard with you and then you referrenced SOE in context with understanding MMOs and then you referenced PS2 as an example of something done right. Then I changed to running away as fast as I could.

     

    PS2 is an example of what not to do.

    Why exactly? It's not done, for sure, but its still a pretty fantastic game, and feels more like an MMO than almost every AAA release of the last 8 years.

  • GrumpyMel2GrumpyMel2 Catskills, NYPosts: 1,832Member

    Investors are always chasing after "the next big thing". Right now the perception is that the "in thing" is social media and mobile applications. The optimal terms here are "chasing" and "perception". The majority of investment follows market trends, not leads them. It's the lucky/smart few that get in on something that starts a trend...it's those guys who really get rich...and usualy they are putting thier money into something everybody else scoffs at. It's also important to note that investment is based on "perception" of where the market is going....it's where that perception meets reality that things can get ugly for people.

    Right now  social and mobile are the "buzzwords", but it's anybodies guess as to how much meat is actualy left to be found in those buzzwords...and if not, where investors will jump at next.

    In a sense though, I think it's actualy a GOOD thing that money is shifting away from MMO's. That may be a tough thing to hear for Developers looking for capital....but too much money thrown into a market results in poor decision making, poorly made products and unrealistic expectations.

    Even in this market, MMO's will continue to get made. They may be fewer in number...and I doubt many will come out with the kind of mega budgets that we've seen recently...and that may actualy be a good thing. Although MMO's do take a substantial amount of money to build, the tools and technology availble today HAVE significantly reduced costs...especialy if a game passes on some of the flashier but mostly superficial (IMO) items...like super high quality graphics, voice acting and cinematics. Slow growth models CAN work and certainly could be done with the kind of finacing availble in a market that's even dried up significantly of investors.

    Ultimately this may end up being a good thing for the industry...as every industry has to go through these sorts of pains as it matures.

     

  • KuppaKuppa Boulder, COPosts: 3,292Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Piiritus
    If they call GW2 innovative then it's maybe the best for all if the MMO genre dies. The quicker the better. Honestly, all that p2w generic garbage has to go. Maybe someone in far future comes out with a new and fun MMO and generates enough money to revive the genre?

    Yes, because "everyone" hates the game.... The genre is actually doing great in part thanks to GW2, but thanks for all the  doom and gloom we definately don't have enough of that around here.

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  • OzivoisOzivois Phoenix, AZPosts: 598Member

    This idea is hogwash. The reason that so much money is invested in Facebook type games is because those games are played by everyone, a large percentage of which are non-gamer types.  That genre of games opened up an untapped resource and real gamers don't play FB games (at least they won't admit it).

    "Real" games are a separate product. I would argue that investment in real games has not decreased due to the development of Facebook games. I think it is a different type of investor getting into developing Facebook games.

    Besides, the MMORPG gaming community only really needs 4 great developers pushing out our MMO's. For me personally I would like the community to be less spread out across different games.

    SOE is working on "EQ Next", Blizzard working on "Titan" and then you have Funcom and Trion doing some great work I think we will have plenty off MMO to come.

     

     

     

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