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Originally posted by TheScavenger I voted for Guild Wars 2. While I may be in the minority (only 5%), NCsoft is a horrid company and will shut down games even making a profit (while very small, it was still profit). And seeing as GW2 didn't do as well as they hoped, NCsoft acts rash and abandons games as quick as flipping a quarter. They've done it to Tabula Rasa, Auto Assault and now City of Heroes.
Didnt do as well as they hoped? Not true.
Tabula rasa was a disaster of a game. It had to be shut down.
Originally posted by mmoguy43 Why is WAR not on the list? I would have picked it over these choices. Originally posted by superniceguy Originally posted by worldalpha SWTOR or TSW would be shocks as they are so new.
SWTOR may be new but is clearly a financial burden, and if they do not get enough money from subs / F2P then it may have to get shut down, to cut their losses
Vanguard has been going for years on empty servers even as P2P with no content, and now swicthed to F2P, and does not seem to need many subs to stay operating. It is yet to move to ProSieben in EU. There now seems to be a future for it. If SWG did not get shut down, it probably would have done. Actually I think the next SOE game to shut down will be Planetside 1, as that is not going to ProSieben. Vanguard may shut down when EQnext is released, or if they need to shift resources to get it released.
SWTOR has more chance of shutting down than Vanguard
But SWTOR has how many times more players? 3-8 times as many? Nobody in the right mind would pull the plug now or even in the next 1-2 years atleast.
But other MMOs do not need 500K subs to remain profitable. Once it goes F2P most people will just play for free, as most people quit because the game is not worth paying for. If the game is going to cost EA to keep going, and they lose money from it, then they will have to pull the plug. That is the impression that EA keep giving. They are hoping that with F2P millions will play, and they will get their 500K subs, but I think its going to back fire, and those subbing will even quit and play for free, and lose even more
WAR not on list as not enough choices
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Now don't get me wrong I don't think SWTOR is going to close, it is not the juggernaut that it was expected to be by a long shot, but I don't think it'll shut down any time soon.
That said, comparing Vanguard to SWTOR is comparing apples to oranges. First Vanguard has what one server now? Has almost no staff and has been suriving on life support for years (almost since launch). It is a niche game to the core and accepts its place there and accepts its place as SOE's red headed step child (almost literally).
With SWTOR, you have a game that was expected to crush things (some even whispered WoW killer in beta), you have a game that cost more than Vanguard has probably earned in the last two to three years possibly ever. They've consolidated servers a great deal before the one year mark, though some of the consolidation was to move to higher population servers. And now they are going free to play.
You see Vanguard isn't a cash cow, but it is still producing a steady stream of milk, SWTOR on the other hand is a cow that's been spooked and the farmer is waiting to see how bad the milk will be when she starts giving milk again.
Originally posted by Rokurgepta Originally posted by TheScavenger I voted for Guild Wars 2. While I may be in the minority (only 5%), NCsoft is a horrid company and will shut down games even making a profit (while very small, it was still profit). And seeing as GW2 didn't do as well as they hoped, NCsoft acts rash and abandons games as quick as flipping a quarter. They've done it to Tabula Rasa, Auto Assault and now City of Heroes.
They scammed Richard Garriot and tried to take his money, luckily the courts saw the evil ways of NCsoft and Richard Garriot won. It was an amazing game, and was slowly making back players (as of a month before it shut down). NCsoft wasn't seeing instant profit, and thought they would make a quick buck scamming Garriot, and failed.
Pretty common knowledge if you kept up with the Tabula Rasa news stories. Like I said, GW2 was supposed to outsell WoW (was said a lot by many on here). NCsoft will shut down games, keep the license to themselves if they see one dollar less than they expected.
That is true with CoH, Tabula and Auto Assault. If you read up on CoH (though not much coming out right now) and what NCsoft tried to do with Garriot, you wouldn't be surprised by anything NCsoft does.
(edit: Fixed first sentence, I mistyped what it was meant to say)
Originally posted by GeezerGamer Anarchy Online should be in that list.
Sad but true. In the past couple years this game has butchered and is running on fumes.
Originally posted by axishatr WWIIOL
Originally posted by axishatr
Originally posted by grimal Mortal Online?
Originally posted by grimal Mortal Online?
These 2 most likely... not any of the ones on the list.
Subs might be low on swtor or tsw but they are nowhere NEAR finish. If Anarchy Online can last for so long I don't see how these will get wrapped up so soon.
MO and WWIIOL truely has no money nor subs nor developers left.
Originally posted by SimLee Originally posted by GeezerGamer Anarchy Online should be in that list.
Anarchy Online is seriously old now though, it was old even a couple of years ago.
If it dies it is not a fail but rather should be celebrated for it's longevity.
Originally posted by TheScavenger Originally posted by Rokurgepta Originally posted by TheScavenger I voted for Guild Wars 2. While I may be in the minority (only 5%), NCsoft is a horrid company and will shut down games even making a profit (while very small, it was still profit). And seeing as GW2 didn't do as well as they hoped, NCsoft acts rash and abandons games as quick as flipping a quarter. They've done it to Tabula Rasa, Auto Assault and now City of Heroes.
Yeah the tried to screw Garriot but the reason people came back was BECAUSE it was shutting down. If you read NcSoft financials the quarter before they announced the shut down Tabula Rasa went from like 28k players to 17k. The game was not that good. It could have been great but it was not good. Could have been amazing but after level 30 the game was a walking disaster.
GW2 was supposed to outsell Wow? You are making things up. One guy at Anet said that their goal was to beat WoW. No one but you took that to mean they were SUPPOSED to outsell WoW. It was one comment that probably should not have been made. If they truly thought they would outsell WoW like you claim they would not have been short servers at launch now would they?
Originally posted by xalvi i voted for Guild wars 2....because it's monthly subscription model won't last.
Very funny. Yeah it does have a really expensive sub.
President of The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club
Well the number of players is only one variable in the equation. How much does it cost them to keep the game running? Even if it making a profit, do they consider it enough to warrant the resources that goes into it? Or could those resources be better utilized somewhere else...
There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes this whole universe for a vast practical joke, though the wit thereof he but dimly discerns, and more than suspects that the joke is at nobody's expense but his own.-- Herman Melville
Originally posted by just1opinion Originally posted by xalvi i voted for Guild wars 2....because it's monthly subscription model won't last.
Hell yeah... zero is way too high. They would need to pay me to play
Tough choices really.
SW:tOR will not shut down anytime soon, they spent too much on it and want the return and they are in the middle of the F2P conversion.
Vanguarg should have been shut down long ago but for some reason they like to keep it running and just did a F2P transition so it has got some time.
GW2 makes no sense because they've likely alreay recouped most of the investment and will want to get an expansion out asap to profit.
I've never understood why people play STO but it seems to keep on chugging with its small population.
So in the end I will have to go with Planetside 1. The game already had a miniscule population and PS2 is likely going to give it the death blow.
Definatly TSW because a game released 3 months ago will definatly get shut down next.
Seriously now, i see Star Trek, Aion, and the other older games being closer to the list. GW1+2 probubly wont get shut down because they cost pennies to keep up. TSW has reported being back to making a profit and is actually growing since i seem to be helping new players with builds almost daily. Besides i see a F2P game getting the cut way before a Sub model does.
Because i can.I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.Logic every gamers worst enemy.
Originally posted by ShakyMo Everything EA UO, DAOC, WAR possibly SWTOR
Damn it I keep forgetting War is still operating.
It could be WAR but I think Planetside 1 will still close first.
Originally posted by mmoguy43 Why is WAR not on the list? I would have picked it over these choices.
And how much more did it cost to make? SWTOR is the most expensive MMO in the history of the genre and it crashed almost immediately. The Bioware staff has been cut in half. They're trying as hard as they can to make it profitable, but I'm not convinced it is. They may keep it in maintainence mode for 3 years to break even, but its certainly a burden.
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While TERA(not on the list), TSW and SWTOR are doing poorly, they have not even converted to F2P yet, therefore, if anything was to go first it would be Aion or Vanguard in my opinion, especially with NCsofts upcoming behemoth Blade and Soul coming to the west at some point i'd have to lean towards Aion. I'm just talking about the bigger MMOs though, not those random no-name MMOs everyone has seen a picture of and tried for 5 minutes before uninstalling. Those close down all the time i'm sure.
TERA, TSW and SWTOR will all obviously try the F2P route before shutting down.
Originally posted by Xzen Voted Vangaurd. I think FFXIV, MO, and Darkfall should have replaced some of the other options on the poll that are obviously not going to shut down any time in the next few years at least.
Why would Darkfall shut down? It's doing really well.
Nah FFXI still have plenty of players and expansion coming out soon.
MO is definately strong possiblity though.
My pick isn't on that list and the game I have in mind is Planetside 1. It's still pay to play and I've seen posts that since the Planetside 2 beta has ramped up there have been something like ten total players online on the one server that still exists.
Shutting it down now would probably be bad press, so I would imagine once Planetside 2 releases there will be an announcement about Planetside 1's closure.
Why would Vanguard shut down? It's getting patches more frequently fixing things, and the player base has gone up. Still has a HUGE free explore world, great graphics for it's age, TONS of quests, lots of classes and races to choose from, diplomacy is a whole other game itself within the game....
I don't see it. I'd bet on SWTOR, Aion, or TSW before it.
Originally posted by Pivotelite While TERA(not on the list), TSW and SWTOR are doing poorly, they have not even converted to F2P yet, therefore, if anything was to go first it would be Aion or Vanguard in my opinion, especially with NCsofts upcoming behemoth Blade and Soul coming to the west at some point i'd have to lean towards Aion. I'm just talking about the bigger MMOs though, not those random no-name MMOs everyone has seen a picture of and tried for 5 minutes before uninstalling. Those close down all the time i'm sure. TERA, TSW and SWTOR will all obviously try the F2P route before shutting down.
Pretty much this TERA, TSW and SWTOR are high up on possible shut downs but not until they've tried the f2p route. Aion I don't agree with, if TERA was actually any good then maybe but it wasn't unfortunately. Vanguards in the same boat as MO, no idea why they haven't shut it down already but since they haven't shut it down by now it kind of leads me to believe they are going to let them limp along for as long as they can which is so inhumane lol.
FFXIV looks prime for a closing but thats no guarantee yet.
STO is seeing content being added on a regular basis so long as this continues the few that stayed are likely to keep it afloat.
CO isn't going anywhere and neither is DCUO, both fill a niche that is seeing a reduction in competition. Even Marvels "MMO" won't have much of any impact as it's a completely different game and it will appeal more to marvel fans and non MMO players.
GW1 and 2 - this was just a bit of lol for me, not sure why either are on the list considering both are doing better than most MMO's on the market.
Lineage 2 isn't going any where yet for the same reasons Aion is sticking around and thats because TERA flopped and failed to provide any real competition. Besides its mainly filled with long term fans.
TERA overall looks like the most likely candidate, it's not doing well in the east it isn't doing well in the west. The f2p model for KTera doesn't seem to be doing overly well either.
After that I'd have to vote for FFXIV. I haven't seen enough change to warrant the majority changing their mind. So far most of the approval seems to be coming from those that stuck with the first itteration of FFXIV meaning it doesn't seem to be having much of an effect on those that left.