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My take on Swtor's success or failure form what I am seeing.

135

Comments

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member
    Originally posted by RefMinor
    Originally posted by Zecktorin
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    Hey OP

    Again, you seem to be glossing over that SWTOR just underwent another server merger.

    All data indicates that SWTOR has continued to lose population.

    TorStatus, X-Fire, and even Scorpienne's population survey.

    They all indicate that SWTOR has lost 20% of population since GW2 has come out.

    Since the server merges didn't redistribute the remaining population evenly, you might be on a high population server, but that doesn't mean everyone else is.

    Every day there are threads opened on the SWTOR Forums with people begging for the 3 APAC servers to be merged due to populations measured in the tens. The same goes for North American server Jung MA.

    Jung MA is especially telling, because SWTOR consistiently reports it as standard despite it's very low population; indicating that these new Mega-servers still have individual population caps.

    Futhermore, several of the new Megaservers have gone form Very Heavy, to full with log-in waiting queues.

    This indicates that the new Megaservers aren't really Mega at all.

    All empirical data indicates that SWTOR shut down 6 servers, and now has 16 servers with decent populations. The standard servers around 800-1500. The heavy servers with 1500-3000. Also are 1 dead server in Jung Ma, and 3 dead servers in Australia.

    Nothing indicates that the population is growing.

    Nothing indicates that the servers are Mega.

    Calling a server Mega without any explanation to any sort of technolgy that has increased it's cap doesn't make it Mega.

    Ty this is what I wanted from someone who disagreed. All I said is from what I have seen on my server. people like to just use smartass remarks instead and just hate for the sake of hating. Its just arrogance from most people. How ever  going by what you have said it still doesnt add up. okay during prime time with the most people playing at any given time on a saturday lets say all the servers are heavy with 3k people each server.  Your telling me that by that math only 48k people are playing at a given time during this period. Even less of those are subs because of the trial accounts.... some of that data is incorrect as it is because there are now currently 20 servers not 16. The leaving players may be just getting replace with new players and so on and so forth.

    48k online might be about right, only about 1 in 5 subscribers is usually online at anyone time in an established game. That would be about 250k subs which isn't unimaginable.

    Refminor:

    There is a player in SWTOR named Scorpienne who has been conducting population surveys since Juneish.

    Her efforts are pretty considerable and many take them as mini-gospel. She combines some sort of combination of Tor-Status and player surveys. If you are intrested in her exact methodology, Google-Fu her.

    Here's her announced results on the SWTOR Forums: http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=484899&page=25

    Although she is rather pro-SWTOR, she reckons the concurrent population of SWTOR as of 9/16, just prior to the mergers,

    at 27 thousand.

    Her are here results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE#gid=51

    And her survey: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=0

     

    As the other data sites suggest, a 20% loss of population since GW2 was released just prior to the server merges.

    I've already stated why I thought the Mega servers aren't Mega.

    Of the 20 remaining servers, the 3 Australian servers, and the 1 RP-PVP server have negligible populations.

    Assuming all the planets lined up and the 16 servers all hit 3,000 players,

    (the previous cap before MEGA, the new cap has been heit on several occasions, leading me to believe it is still 3,000 MEGA or not.)

    16 servers x 3,000= 48 thousand max concurrent population.

    Several people keep pointing out that the MEGA servers are real because they will be needed for the influx of new FTP players.

    I ask you this, many believe that the HERO engine canot handle populatons over 3,000 even with phasing. (Consider for a moment that WoW's servers max cap is 4,000-8,000) How would the new Mega technology address this?

    The new Popilation Test Server (All US East coast charcters were available to play on 1 server in theorey, but the server was never tested for load. No one played on it.)

    What makes you think that Bioware won't just open servers as needed form there stash of 200 unused servers when the game goes FTP?

    The 220 servers Bioware initially invested in has a max concurrent population of 220 x 3,000=6,600,000 players.

    Those servers do not require Mega vaporware, and are tried and tested.

    People say I'm overly negative (perhaps I am , I know the ban hammer.) But I'm not screaming the game sucks, I just point out that sometimes EA goes into extreme spin mode, and I'm not willing or able to play along with it.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    Several people keep pointing out that the MEGA servers are real because they will be needed for the influx of new FTP players.

    Makes sense. People believe it for a reason.

    I ask you this, many believe that the HERO engine canot handle populatons over 3,000 even with phasing. (Consider for a moment that WoW's servers max cap is 4,000-8,000) How would the new Mega technology address this?

    False. See link below. It's entirely about the server architecture, not the Hero Engine's limitations.

    What makes you think that Bioware won't just open servers as needed form there stash of 200 unused servers when the game goes FTP?

    Because they wouldn't close all those servers and go through that painful merging (on the players and press) only to re-open them a few months later. 

    People say I'm overly negative (perhaps I am , I know the ban hammer.) But I'm not screaming the game sucks, I just point out that sometimes EA goes into extreme spin mode, and I'm not willing or able to play along with it.           I'm not denying they spin a lot of PR. But I honestly believe mega servers isn't one of them. 

    You can still try to convince others that there are no difference between mega servers and normal servers, but common sense points towards there being a difference. It's only pure speculation either way though.

     

    Just wanted to point this out: 

    "The folks behind the HeroEngine unveiled some pretty impressive statistics at this year's Game Developers Conference, foremost of which is the ability to support "large, seamless worlds" on single servers. By large, they mean over 100,000 users on a single shard."

    http://www.tentonhammer.com/node/65862&ei=dHPKScXzJ4PvnQfn7PydAw&usg=AFQjCNF71O8j6p0vL50qeKqx0wtFBDRGqQ

    "Much like a cluster, an individual shard could be expected to accommodate thousands, tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of players. For a classic MMORPG like World of Warcraft, the numbers are probably thousands to tens of thousands per world/shard."

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Maximum_Players

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by Draron

    You can still try to convince others that there are no difference between mega servers and normal servers, but common sense points towards there being a difference. It's only pure speculation either way though.

     

    Could you point us to information regarding the mega servers?  I've seen plenty of unofficial chatter, along with a bunch of assertions as to these new capabilities, but nothing yet as to specifics as to what a mega server really means.

    New architecture? New hardware?

    More players per server?  Now this one is important because I see a bunch of people interpreting "Mega" as some kind of super massive server capable of maintaining many more logged accounts, than was previously capable.  Is this true?

    Bigger hard drives to hold more players?  OK they raided WalMart and bought up some Tera-byte drives :P  Is this what EA meant by Mega?

     

    If you have some links, share 'em please.  Or start a new thread with your findings.  Because many of us Star Wars fans who want to find love with this game just don't have much confidence in EA anymore.  Mega is just so vague and got carried by the wind with all the speculation threads on the official forums, perhaps thanks to EA viral marketers, whatever.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    Could you point us to information regarding the mega servers?  I've seen plenty of unofficial chatter, along with a bunch of assertions as to these new capabilities, but nothing yet as to specifics as to what a mega server really means.

    New architecture? New hardware?

    More players per server?  Now this one is important because I see a bunch of people interpreting "Mega" as some kind of super massive server capable of maintaining many more logged accounts, than was previously capable.  Is this true?

    Bigger hard drives to hold more players?  OK they raided WalMart and bought up some Tera-byte drives :P  Is this what EA meant by Mega?

     

    If you have some links, share 'em please.  Or start a new thread with your findings.  Because many of us Star Wars fans who want to find love with this game just don't have much confidence in EA anymore.  Mega is just so vague and got carried by the wind with all the speculation threads on the official forums, perhaps thanks to EA viral marketers, whatever.

    Nothing official by Bioware on official statistics of the new populations, sadly. We don't know for sure either way, was just offering some links and opinions on why it most likely isn't EA's PR spin.

     

    They did mention mega servers = more sustainable population on them:

    "We have upgraded destination servers in order to support a significantly higher number of players! In addition to this, all characters on origin servers have now been automatically moved onto the upgraded high population destination servers."

    http://www.swtor.com/systemalerts

     

    And this from back in May (back when the game had over a mil subs):

    PC Gamer: Will they be cross-server at launch? Is that planned for the future?

    Daniel Erickson: They will not be cross-server as we are coming up on a huge move to servers with massively higher population caps than we have today.

    http://www.pcgamer.com/2012/05/23/the-old-republics-daniel-erickson-talks-legacy-system-update-group-finder-and-adaptive-gear/

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    I think even with the phasing technology being used by SWTOR's servers, they would probably still have problems with caps above 3,000. Even with the multiple phases of fleet on busy servers, there is significant lag. Plasyers have complained about lag in Operations where there were multiple phases running simulataneously (from forum chatrer.) And of course, there was Ilum. Ilum, which they said they've been working on since they took it off line is not being reintroduced with the new Mega technology.

    I think I raise some valid concerns. The quotes you are pulling from Simtronics are about their finalized engine. (Just finished pretty much, years after Bioware started working with the Alpha)

    There is a simple way to prove the new servers are Mega, same as Scorpienne who I mentioned earlier uses to poll server populations. Do a /who of everyone on both sides (Imperial and Republic) of one of the new Mega-dervers and get a population well above 3,000; then take screenshots for posterity's sake.

    If you could get screenshots as stated above, then I would have to learn to like crow. In case you are right and I am wrong, I really hope crow tastes like chicken.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    The second link is from the wiki, an up to date resource for the engine.

    I'm not arguing over the population of the game itself atm, I think your misunderstanding. Just clarifying on the mega servers.

    And doing a snapshot of the population at one point in time won't prove anything of the servers being "mega". If there's not enough people to fill them, there's no way to test until F2P comes.

  • LangsdorffLangsdorff Raleigh, NCPosts: 29Member
    Originally posted by Zecktorin

     

    Im kinda neutral on the game. yes it is fun to me, but It could have been so much more.

    I hate reading anything on this site, If it's not the game with the most Hype, then usually it a failure and all the haters hate on that game, meanwhile the fanboys are on the hyped up game. What is that realistically. Well hyped = GW2, hated SWTOR and any other game that isn't hyped, IMPHO.

    Langsdorff

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    If you could get screenshots as stated above, then I would have to learn to like crow. In case you are right and I am wrong, I really hope crow tastes like chicken.

    The /who result cap is or was 49 when I stopped playing (same as WoW).  It would be many screenshots, but then the integrity of each screenshot could be criticized.

     

    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    The second link is from the wiki, an up to date resource for the engine.

    I'm not arguing over the population of the game itself atm, I think your misunderstanding. Just clarifying on the mega servers.

    And doing a snapshot of the population at one point in time won't prove anything of the servers being "mega". If there's not enough people to fill them, there's no way to test until F2P comes.

    The same "light" "standard" "heavy" seems to apply after the Mega Servers was implemented, with servers not really changing much from their population denominations prior and post "mega" servers.  This just seems to add to forum ponderers like us as to exactly what a "massive" increase to population cap really means.

     

    Thanks for the links by the way!

    Now I'm wondering what a "massive" increase to population caps actually means .. 100 or 500 or 5000? EA still spins enough crap .. lol.  Current subscribers as of June 30, 2012 (reported in early August 2012) fell below 1,000,000 but was well above 500,000.  EA loves to play with numbers, especially higher numbers that don't fit =)  505,000 for instance is well above 500k in my book.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • tiefighter25tiefighter25 Winchester, MAPosts: 937Member
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    The second link is from the wiki, an up to date resource for the engine.

    I'm not arguing over the population of the game itself atm, I think your misunderstanding. Just clarifying on the mega servers.

    And doing a snapshot of the population at one point in time won't prove anything of the servers being "mega". If there's not enough people to fill them, there's no way to test until F2P comes.

    Well in regard to the population, I did point out that several servers have already hit full capacity following hte mergers. (Along with waiting queues.) Some have explained that is because Bioware is slowly "breaking in " the new servers. Where they garnered this knowledge, I don't know and they don't say.

    One would think that after closing 6 servers, the resulting population in one of the new destination servers could peak above 3,000 players to test the new meganess.

    That said, the very heavy servers aren't over 3,000. If 2,500 is very heavy, what is full?

    As I mentioned before, the Jung Ma server is curious indeed. Players are reporting 70-120 on fleet, both sides, and the server is reporting Standard. The same thing, but with lower populations is being reported by Gav Dragon.

    To me, all data indicates that the same population is being dispersed on less servers following the merger.

    I see no evidence of the server's new meganess.

    Of course I could be wrong. Perhaps the new servers are being "Broken In" and the server status reporting is borked, and will find out in "the Fall?" when FTP finally arrives.

    This new mega-technology, just seemed awfully convienent from EA's prespective, not very well documented, and could use further clarification.

    So in the end I guess we agree to disagree. We'll find out in maybe November. I guess we can peg this up to another "Coming Soon"?

    If they have made great strides in server technology and a possible new space project, one would think they would market it better. I dunno.

    Just to stay a negative Nancy, I could say that the quote you are pointing to in that interview,

    "PCG: Will they be cross-server at launch? Is that planned for the future?

    DE: They will not be cross-server as we are coming up on a huge move to servers with massively higher population caps than we have today."

    ..was just an excuse to explain why they weren't making Group FInder cross-server.

    The other link was Bioware saying the cap was increased, no explanation how. (And a btw, your name might be gone.)

    But as you point out, all will be revealled with the FTP launch.

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    The second link is from the wiki, an up to date resource for the engine.

    I'm not arguing over the population of the game itself atm, I think your misunderstanding. Just clarifying on the mega servers.

    And doing a snapshot of the population at one point in time won't prove anything of the servers being "mega". If there's not enough people to fill them, there's no way to test until F2P comes.

    Well in regard to the population, I did point out that several servers have already hit full capacity following hte mergers. (Along with waiting queues.) Some have explained that is because Bioware is slowly "breaking in " the new servers. Where they garnered this knowledge, I don't know and they don't say.

    One would think that after closing 6 servers, the resulting population in one of the new destination servers could peak above 3,000 players to test the new meganess.

    That said, the very heavy servers aren't over 3,000. If 2,500 is very heavy, what is full?

    As I mentioned before, the Jung Ma server is curious indeed. Players are reporting 70-120 on fleet, both sides, and the server is reporting Standard. The same thing, but with lower populations is being reported by Gav Dragon.

    To me, all data indicates that the same population is being dispersed on less servers following the merger.

    I see no evidence of the server's new meganess.

    Of course I could be wrong. Perhaps the new servers are being "Broken In" and the server status reporting is borked, and will find out in "the Fall?" when FTP finally arrives.

    This new mega-technology, just seemed awfully convienent from EA's prespective, not very well documented, and could use further clarification.

    So in the end I guess we agree to disagree. We'll find out in maybe November. I guess we can peg this up to another "Coming Soon"?

    If they have made great strides in server technology and a possible new space project, one would think they would market it better. I dunno.

    Just to stay a negative Nancy, I could say that the quote you are pointing to in that interview,

    "PCG: Will they be cross-server at launch? Is that planned for the future?

    DE: They will not be cross-server as we are coming up on a huge move to servers with massively higher population caps than we have today."

    ..was just an excuse to explain why they weren't making Group FInder cross-server.

    The other link was Bioware saying the cap was increased, no explanation how. (And a btw, your name might be gone.)

    But as you point out, all will be revealled with the FTP launch.

    In green.

    Come November EA will not reveal subscriptions at all.  Instead they will state that they have X number of new accounts eagerly waiting for F2P, or something like that.

     

    Subs reported in November (snapshot of Sept 30th, 2012 - closing quarter date) will be so below the break-even point of 500k subs that there is no way EA will detail this to investors.  EA's rival, Activision-Blizzard has a clause that they include everyone who quit during the previous 30 days as subscribers .. but even if they rip Activision-Blizzard's policy I don't think this will even help SWTOR reach 500k.  Investors WANT to hear MORE than 500k lol. They don't want to hear "near" or "less".

     

    [the rest applies to other posters]

     

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

     

    This game isn't making investors happy :-P  EA might have suckered some in to their F2P model, but I'm not seeing it.  Make a good game and people will play it, and it will generate some $$

     

      ... make an overall fair game, inferior in some areas, and great in others .. and well if you are lucky you will get your money back.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

    To be fair, that 500k goal was when they had there expectations high and before the many layoffs. We don't know how many subs is needed to be profitable now.

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by Karteli

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

    To be fair, that 500k goal was when they had there expectations high and before the many layoffs. We don't know how many subs is needed to be profitable now.

    To also be fair, that 500k goal might have already included an anticipated layoff of their personell.  EA likely knew ahead of time who they would let go in order to make the game break even.

     

    In a successful game, developers just don't lay off people.  If the game is profitable you keep everyone around who made it possible .. and you use these same people to add more and more stuff.

     

    Laying people off is a short sighted advantage. It will help short-term, but in the long term, it only decreases your companies value.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by Karteli

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

    To be fair, that 500k goal was when they had there expectations high and before the many layoffs. We don't know how many subs is needed to be profitable now.

    To also be fair, that 500k goal might have already included an anticipated layoff of their personell.  EA likely knew ahead of time who they would let go in order to make the game break even.

     There's a quote floating around how Bioware said it expects to keep there 500 man staff after the launch of the game, but can't find it atm. All that comes up is news over the two heads of Bioware leaving. But they didn't plan on layoffs.

    In a successful game, developers just don't lay off people.  If the game is profitable you keep everyone around who made it possible .. and you use these same people to add more and more stuff.

     True, but the game wasn't a successful launch, hence the layoffs. We can make safe bet they layed off enough people so that they can keep up monthly costs, thus not needing the 500k for profits. That's the reason for layoffs, no? Cut the fat, so to speak.

    Laying people off is a short sighted advantage. It will help short-term, but in the long term, it only decreases your companies value.

    True Hopefully they can fill the team out again once F2P comes.

     

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,084Member Uncommon

    I think it is a fair assumption that 500k to break even assumed "some size of team" smaller than on day 1 - so some downsizing built in - but larger than it is now. And my assumption is that EA will want the cost of the team to be covered from the subscription revenue - income from F2P would then go towards recovering the investment. 

    I think it is also a reasonable assumption that the population has continued to fall. There is simply no "buzz". The main forum activity, for example, is painfully slow. Sites have closed. Player surveys, Torstatus, XFire, further server mergers (May be wrong but I am assuming here that the mega server architecture, whatever that is, isn't active yet).

     Older games with sub-250k subs made more of an impact. As Karteli suggets however I would not be surprised if we (edit) "do not " get a new number for subs from EA.

  • SBE1SBE1 New York, NYPosts: 335Member
    Originally posted by Zecktorin

    Even tho they did server mergers remember these servers hold MANY MANY more players than the old ones use to. 

    Do you really believe that statement?  Did server hardware just drastically change in the last year and I miss the announcement?  Oh wait, you want to think that EA/Bioware first used really old servers that were made back in 2000 for the game launch, and now they upgraded to the 2012 servers......Seriously?  Obviously they used top-line servers at launch.  

    Yeah, you keep the faith that the game population hasn't dropped by at least 75%.  That whole massive layoff thing at EA/Bioware, totally unrelated I'm sure.....laugh.

  • superniceguysuperniceguy AnchorheadPosts: 2,278Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by SuperXero89

    If it's not a success then it must be a failure.

     

    That has always been the mindset of the mmorpg.com forums.

    There is more to it than that thinking with SWTOR. Even Blind Freddy can see that SWTOR is a failure!

    SWTOR starts as a success and sells 2 million copies with people all understanding that it costs $15 monthly fee, and with the intent to play for years, yet they don't and now it is under 500K subs. There are mass layofff, then the game goes F2P from P2P. Then servers merge from about 200 to 20. Then the main guys behind the game then bail, including "The Doctors" who not only leaves Bioware but retire from game creation altogether. That is what makes it a failure.

    The Secret World I consider neither a success or a failure. It started with average amount of players, and generally keeps people entertained, and not quitting on mass or foaming at the mouth with disappointment!

     

  • superniceguysuperniceguy AnchorheadPosts: 2,278Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by Karteli

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

    To be fair, that 500k goal was when they had there expectations high and before the many layoffs. We don't know how many subs is needed to be profitable now.

    It is still 500K according to this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19077238 as posted on 1st Aug, following the F2P announcement and the layoffs

    The President of EA Labels Frank Gibeau said the Star Wars game would still break even so long as it maintained 500,000 subscribers, but admitted that its current performance was "not good enough".

     

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,084Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by superniceguy
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by Karteli

    As pointed out in other posts 500k is the break-even point to cover day-to-day costs.  1 Million subscribers was what is needed to put money back into EA and show investors a few pennies on their dollars.

    To be fair, that 500k goal was when they had there expectations high and before the many layoffs. We don't know how many subs is needed to be profitable now.

    It is still 500K according to this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-19077238 as posted on 1st Aug, following the F2P announcement and the layoffs

    The President of EA Labels Frank Gibeau said the Star Wars game would still break even so long as it maintained 500,000 subscribers, but admitted that its current performance was "not good enough".

     

    As of the 31st of July it was "well above" 500k. It may not be now. And the reason for thinking this is how EA worded the sub numbers: between 500k and 1M. That is a huge margin probably because of the 6 month subscribers coming up for renewal in August / September. EA's projection must have been that many would decide not to - pushing the number towards 500k sometime post 31st July.

    Either way the number wasn't good enough as mentioned. And as for "it will make a profit if it keeps 500k subs ..... in an absolute sense yes but not really. Frank Gibeau is assuming that they have reduced their costs below 500k subs (reasonable) and that they can hold onto 500k subs for a far longer period of time than originally planned - probably 5+ years  - and that interest rates don't rise and that that many people want to pay a premium sub despite a F2P option and ...and..... and that EA/LA choose to renew the IP and .... He is, as the saying goes, pushing the boat out. Sure it is possible to row across the Atlantic.... survive a parachute jump in which the chute fails to open ... and as it stands SWTOR making a profit (i.e. recovering its development costs rather than day-to-day) is probably less likely.

     

    NB. Most info is available at: http://investor.ea.com/

     

  • smh_alotsmh_alot Area 51Posts: 976Member
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    I've already stated why I thought the Mega servers aren't Mega.Of the 20 remaining servers, the 3 Australian servers, and the 1 RP-PVP server have negligible populations.Assuming all the planets lined up and the 16 servers all hit 3,000 players,(the previous cap before MEGA, the new cap has been heit on several occasions, leading me to believe it is still 3,000 MEGA or not.)16 servers x 3,000= 48 thousand max concurrent population.Several people keep pointing out that the MEGA servers are real because they will be needed for the influx of new FTP players.I ask you this, many believe that the HERO engine canot handle populatons over 3,000 even with phasing. (Consider for a moment that WoW's servers max cap is 4,000-8,000) How would the new Mega technology address this?The new Popilation Test Server (All US East coast charcters were available to play on 1 server in theorey, but the server was never tested for load. No one played on it.)What makes you think that Bioware won't just open servers as needed form there stash of 200 unused servers when the game goes FTP?The 220 servers Bioware initially invested in has a max concurrent population of 220 x 3,000=6,600,000 players.Those servers do not require Mega vaporware, and are tried and tested.People say I'm overly negative (perhaps I am , I know the ban hammer.) But I'm not screaming the game sucks, I just point out that sometimes EA goes into extreme spin mode, and I'm not willing or able to play along with it.

     

    ? This is wrong information. I don't know what the cap is in the new situation, but the HERO engine and former cap was 4000-4500 players online on a server. Can't tell if they changed it, but concurrent player populations of 4000+ players were counted at FULL status in the early months. So that means that the current cap is either the same or higher.

    I'm not sure btw that WoW's player cap is around the 8k. If so, then that must be a fairly recent thing, from what I recall, the cap was around 4-5k a couple of years back. As for other MMO's, iirc the player cap for Rift was 2k and GW2 seems to have the highest of them all (or maybe TSW too, don't know about their special tech): the highest capped MMO's don't surpass the 6k concurrent per server (except EVE with a different architecture), but GW2 managed to have at least a 10-12k concurrent per server.
  • LeoghanLeoghan Herndon, VAPosts: 607Member

    Anyone remember this thread? http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/334472/page/1

    I can't believe the people who predicted f2p in 1 year were correct. I can't believe the hype some bought into either. 

    If we base success or failure on what the fans expected the numbers to be like, I think it is safe to call it a failure. I don't know the SWTOR is a failure financially, but it is by no means the market-share beast that it was intended to be. 

  • defector1968defector1968 Nar ShaddaaPosts: 393Member Common
    Originally posted by tiefighter25
    Originally posted by Draron
    Originally posted by tiefighter25

    @Draron:

    I just wanted to point out that the finalized Hero engine and the Aplppha protype Bioware based SWOTOR on are two different beasts. Same genus, different species, as Simtronics was quick to point out last December.

    The second link is from the wiki, an up to date resource for the engine.

    I'm not arguing over the population of the game itself atm, I think your misunderstanding. Just clarifying on the mega servers.

    And doing a snapshot of the population at one point in time won't prove anything of the servers being "mega". If there's not enough people to fill them, there's no way to test until F2P comes.

    Well in regard to the population, I did point out that several servers have already hit full capacity following hte mergers. (Along with waiting queues.) Some have explained that is because Bioware is slowly "breaking in " the new servers. Where they garnered this knowledge, I don't know and they don't say.

    One would think that after closing 6 servers, the resulting population in one of the new destination servers could peak above 3,000 players to test the new meganess.

    That said, the very heavy servers aren't over 3,000. If 2,500 is very heavy, what is full?

    As I mentioned before, the Jung Ma server is curious indeed. Players are reporting 70-120 on fleet, both sides, and the server is reporting Standard. The same thing, but with lower populations is being reported by Gav Dragon.

    To me, all data indicates that the same population is being dispersed on less servers following the merger.

    I see no evidence of the server's new meganess.

    Of course I could be wrong. Perhaps the new servers are being "Broken In" and the server status reporting is borked, and will find out in "the Fall?" when FTP finally arrives.

    This new mega-technology, just seemed awfully convienent from EA's prespective, not very well documented, and could use further clarification.

    So in the end I guess we agree to disagree. We'll find out in maybe November. I guess we can peg this up to another "Coming Soon"?

    If they have made great strides in server technology and a possible new space project, one would think they would market it better. I dunno.

    Just to stay a negative Nancy, I could say that the quote you are pointing to in that interview,

    "PCG: Will they be cross-server at launch? Is that planned for the future?

    DE: They will not be cross-server as we are coming up on a huge move to servers with massively higher population caps than we have today."

    ..was just an excuse to explain why they weren't making Group FInder cross-server.

    The other link was Bioware saying the cap was increased, no explanation how. (And a btw, your name might be gone.)

    But as you point out, all will be revealled with the FTP launch.

    nobody knows whats the cap is. could be 3k , could be 30k. DCUO when lanched the f2p had 1mill active accs and had only 2 servers

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member

    I can say SWTOR is a failure in Bioware's expectations/financially. But entertainment wise, I'd say no. 

    Compared to a majority of the MMO's launched the past few years, even 10 months out it's held onto it's sub base better than WAR, FFXIV, AoC, Rift, etc. I'm not going to argue with anyone over why it's a good game or not as that's purely opinion, but there's reason for having 500k-1mil subs this far out.

    The Star Wars setting may have helped, but it's not the sole reason. Look at SWG, after it received a specific update it's subs plummeted and was barely keeping up 50k subscriptions before it was shut down. Most people play games for there own merit, not setting.

  • f0dell54f0dell54 Des Moines, IAPosts: 329Member Common
    Originally posted by Draron

    I can say SWTOR is a failure in Bioware's expectations/financially. But entertainment wise, I'd say no. 

    Compared to a majority of the MMO's launched the past few years, even 10 months out it's held onto it's sub base better than WAR, FFXIV, AoC, Rift, etc. I'm not going to argue with anyone over why it's a good game or not as that's purely opinion, but there's reason for having 500k-1mil subs this far out.

    The Star Wars setting may have helped, but it's not the sole reason. Look at SWG, after it received a specific update it's subs plummeted and was barely keeping up 50k subscriptions before it was shut down. Most people play games for there own merit, not setting.

     

    So you’re saying that it has held it subs better then Rift? A game that is still P2P with no F2P even being discussed, and that has an expansion on the way. 

    SWTOR sold over 2 million copies and publicly stated they had over 1.7 million subs.

    http://torwars.com/2012/02/02/two-million-copies-of-swtor-sold-1-7-million-subscriptions/

    TOR at 10 months: http://www.swtor.com/free

    Rift at most (if I’m remembering right claim 1.2 million copies sold.) Although, I can't find that number and they have never released sub numbers, either way these number are still far less than SWTOR.

    Here was Rift at 10 months : http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCATRE80I19K20120119

    So, again you’re saying that a game that lost over a million subs in less than a year is doing a good job holding onto them?

    I would also like to add that 500k-1mill subs at this point is being pretty generous.

  • TorgrimTorgrim GothenburgPosts: 2,088Member

    Dosen't matter how much you roll your 8-ball SWTOR is an epic fail.

    Is it dead? no

    Do people still play it? yes

    The thing is, It's Star Wars, It's Bioware sure these two things should make an epic game, but sadly they took the cheesy fanboy route and made a game worth 10mill dollar but using 200 million dollars.

    Just beacuse a game has players dosent make it a success.

    If it's not broken, you are not innovating.

  • DraronDraron A town in, KYPosts: 993Member
    Originally posted by f0dell54
    Originally posted by Draron

    I can say SWTOR is a failure in Bioware's expectations/financially. But entertainment wise, I'd say no. 

    Compared to a majority of the MMO's launched the past few years, even 10 months out it's held onto it's sub base better than WAR, FFXIV, AoC, Rift, etc. I'm not going to argue with anyone over why it's a good game or not as that's purely opinion, but there's reason for having 500k-1mil subs this far out.

    The Star Wars setting may have helped, but it's not the sole reason. Look at SWG, after it received a specific update it's subs plummeted and was barely keeping up 50k subscriptions before it was shut down. Most people play games for there own merit, not setting.

     

    So you’re saying that it has held it subs better then Rift? A game that is still P2P with no F2P even being discussed, and that has an expansion on the way. 

    SWTOR sold over 2 million copies and publicly stated they had over 1.7 million subs.

    http://torwars.com/2012/02/02/two-million-copies-of-swtor-sold-1-7-million-subscriptions/

    TOR at 10 months: http://www.swtor.com/free

    Rift at most (if I’m remembering right claim 1.2 million copies sold.) Although, I can't find that number and they have never released sub numbers, either way these number are still far less than SWTOR.

    Here was Rift at 10 months : http://ca.reuters.com/article/idCATRE80I19K20120119

    So, again you’re saying that a game that lost over a million subs in less than a year is doing a good job holding onto them?

    I would also like to add that 500k-1mill subs at this point is being pretty generous.

    Rift lost there subs faster than SWTOR percentage wise. http://users.telenet.be/mmodata/Charts/Subs-2.png Going by that chart, Rift lost more than half of it's subsriptions 5 months in. SWTOR kept more than half that far after launch.

    I won't make up anything to make SWTOR look better, I'm no fanboi. In fact I'd say I'm the opposite. I stayed away from the game for a good half year after it launched purely on the hate it was getting. After playing it a few months, I have to say a lot of it (not all) is just unfounded.

    And Trion did hint at F2P. They were questioned on an alternate payment option since it's becoming prevelant in other games, and they replied with they're busy on the expansion and not to look forward to anything like that until they're well after the launch and hands are free.

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