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Latest X-fire numbers?

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  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon

    People need to understand what X-Fire numbers represent.

    X-Fire numbers represent very accurately the X-Fire users preferences.

    What we don't know is how  much X-fire users patterns mirror those of the non x-fire users.

    For example, for X-fire users GW2 is more played than WoW (even taking in account the bug that x-fire already fixed) while for the rest of the world that isn't mirrored.

    Then we have other factors.

    GW2 launched during the summer hollidays - I was playing 12 hours a day during the first week, now I'm playing 4-6 during weekdays and 6+ during weekends.

     

    If one looks at the peek numbers, both hours and players, we see a drop of hours played by player. from over 6 hours/day to 4.5hour/day.

     

    There are some comments that say that other games numbers kept increasing after release.

    Gw2 started with over 1 million players, though and reached at least 2 millions.

    We are talking of an order of magnitude higher compared to pretty much every other new MMO release with the exception of SWTOR.

    So we are talking of 30-50% of WoW population for the Europe/America market, so I don't know how much growth do people expect in 2 weeks.

    Mid and high level zones seem well populated.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • JackdogJackdog Charleston, SCPosts: 6,344Member
    Originally posted by Shadoed
     

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

     

    kind of amazing that the breaking patch landed at the same time as GW2 launched.

    Once again though trends are the key and since the last week of August when GW2 launched all of the top 5 western MMO's took a hit of between 25 and 60 percent. It is just not WoW that GW2 affected, SWToR, LoTRO, Aion, RIFT, TERA even EVE have all took a significant hit. People can't just cherry pick GW2's numbers and expect to be taken seriously, if you are going to look at the numbers look at all the numbers.

    I miss DAoC

  • coretex666coretex666 PraguePosts: 1,934Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

    People need to understand what X-Fire numbers represent.

    X-Fire numbers represent very accurately the X-Fire users preferences.

    What we don't know is how  much X-fire users patterns mirror those of the non x-fire users.

    For example, for X-fire users GW2 is more played than WoW (even taking in account the bug that x-fire already fixed) while for the rest of the world that isn't mirrored.

    Then we have other factors.

    GW2 launched during the summer hollidays - I was playing 12 hours a day during the first week, now I'm playing 4-6 during weekdays and 6+ during weekends.

     

    If one looks at the peek numbers, both hours and players, we see a drop of hours played by player. from over 6 hours/day to 4.5hour/day.

     

    There are some comments that say that other games numbers kept increasing after release.

    Gw2 started with over 1 million players, though and reached at least 2 millions.

    We are talking of an order of magnitude higher compared to pretty much every other new MMO release with the exception of SWTOR.

    So we are talking of 30-50% of WoW population for the Europe/America market, so I don't know how much growth do people expect in 2 weeks.

    Mid and high level zones seem well populated.

    People need to understand the very basics of statistics. Xfire users are nothing more than a sample.

    Waiting for L2 EU Classic

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by coretex666
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

    People need to understand what X-Fire numbers represent.

    X-Fire numbers represent very accurately the X-Fire users preferences.

    What we don't know is how  much X-fire users patterns mirror those of the non x-fire users.

    For example, for X-fire users GW2 is more played than WoW (even taking in account the bug that x-fire already fixed) while for the rest of the world that isn't mirrored.

    Then we have other factors.

    GW2 launched during the summer hollidays - I was playing 12 hours a day during the first week, now I'm playing 4-6 during weekdays and 6+ during weekends.

     

    If one looks at the peek numbers, both hours and players, we see a drop of hours played by player. from over 6 hours/day to 4.5hour/day.

     

    There are some comments that say that other games numbers kept increasing after release.

    Gw2 started with over 1 million players, though and reached at least 2 millions.

    We are talking of an order of magnitude higher compared to pretty much every other new MMO release with the exception of SWTOR.

    So we are talking of 30-50% of WoW population for the Europe/America market, so I don't know how much growth do people expect in 2 weeks.

    Mid and high level zones seem well populated.

    People need to understand the very basics of statistics. Xfire users are nothing more than a sample.

    They aren't a sample.

    They are a group - videogamers that use x-fire.

    A representative sample needs to take into account several groups (population subsets) and their proportion of the general population.

    If I want to make a poll for the US elections, I need to poll 51% women and 49% men, I need to make sure I poll age groups accordingly, urban population, rural population, white, black, yellow, purple, what states, etc.

    A valid sample would grab 1000 random GW2 buyers, 500/500 America/Europe, from different servers and monitor if they are still playing and how much they are playing.

    This would be a valid representation.

    For example, if X-fire was a valid sample, one would think there are more or at least the same amount of players playing GW2 as they are playing WoW (I'm talking users and not hours).

    Now, chances are that if a game is in decline it will also be in decline in X-Fire. Percentages of drops on the other hand will be harder to correlate.

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • KareliaKarelia HeraklionPosts: 668Member
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    +1

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,028Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by coretex666.

    People need to understand the very basics of statistics. Xfire users are nothing more than a sample.

    They dont anyways.

    I am still waiting for the Wow thread: "So this game have topped on Xfire" since every other game do have them, but every single thread that uses Xfire as single proof is flawed.

  • ShadoedShadoed BirminghamPosts: 1,499Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by Shadoed
     

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

     

    kind of amazing that the breaking patch landed at the same time as GW2 launched.

    Once again though trends are the key and since the last week of August when GW2 launched all of the top 5 western MMO's took a hit of between 25 and 60 percent. It is just not WoW that GW2 affected, SWToR, LoTRO, Aion, RIFT, TERA even EVE have all took a significant hit. People can't just cherry pick GW2's numbers and expect to be taken seriously, if you are going to look at the numbers look at all the numbers.

    Seriously.....that is the line you want to take on this?

    OK, fair enough, since the last week of August when GW2 launched WoW took a hit and dropped to a low of 15,781 hrs played, since then it has pulled back up to a high of 25,664 hrs played, but GW2 hit a high of 92,946, but has now settled at 44185. So since launch, GW2 has lost 53% of it's players and WoW has increased theirs by over 61%? (how is that for cherry picking figures)

    The point is that we can all throw figures around to make a point, but do any of them actually mean anything when taken from a single, unreliable source? Well, no, of course they dont. I don't believe for one minute that GW2 has lost that many players as i don't think that WoW just suddenly lost 65% of it's player base overnight either because of the GW2 launch (for starters if there was that amount of mass migration from all MMO's, where is the 5, 6, 7Mill box sales to back it up?).

    If you want to believe these figures, fine, that is your choice and i respect that, but don't expect everyone to put as much faith into them as you do. After all, 73.6% of statistics are just made up ;-)

    It must be Thursday, i never could get the hang of Thursdays.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Shadoed
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by Shadoed
     

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

     

    kind of amazing that the breaking patch landed at the same time as GW2 launched.

    Once again though trends are the key and since the last week of August when GW2 launched all of the top 5 western MMO's took a hit of between 25 and 60 percent. It is just not WoW that GW2 affected, SWToR, LoTRO, Aion, RIFT, TERA even EVE have all took a significant hit. People can't just cherry pick GW2's numbers and expect to be taken seriously, if you are going to look at the numbers look at all the numbers.

    Seriously.....that is the line you want to take on this?

    OK, fair enough, since the last week of August when GW2 launched WoW took a hit and dropped to a low of 15,781 hrs played, since then it has pulled back up to a high of 25,664 hrs played, but GW2 hit a high of 92,946, but has now settled at 44185. So since launch, GW2 has lost 53% of it's players and WoW has increased theirs by over 61%? (how is that for cherry picking figures)

    The point is that we can all throw figures around to make a point, but do any of them actually mean anything when taken from a single, unreliable source? Well, no, of course they dont. I don't believe for one minute that GW2 has lost that many players as i don't think that WoW just suddenly lost 65% of it's player base overnight either because of the GW2 launch (for starters if there was that amount of mass migration from all MMO's, where is the 5, 6, 7Mill box sales to back it up?).

    If you want to believe these figures, fine, that is your choice and i respect that, but don't expect everyone to put as much faith into them as you do. After all, 73.6% of statistics are just made up ;-)

    Charts is in hours played not # of players.

    If I play 12 hours in 1 day and 6 hours in the next day, does that mean the game lost half of me?

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • saurus123saurus123 nonePosts: 570Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    its not the numbers of players its played hours

     

    first weeks you leveled your character to 80 next week you go and pvp

    leveling takes more time

     

    if you want to know what happened with wow after gw2 realese

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

     

    play time dropped by 20k/day

  • ThraliaThralia EngerPosts: 219Member
    Originally posted by saurus123
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    its not the numbers of players its played hours

     

    first weeks you leveled your character to 80 next week you go and pvp

    leveling takes more time

     

    if you want to know what happened with wow after gw2 realese

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

     

    play time dropped by 20k/day

    are u seriously comparing a few weeks odl game to one that is over 8y old?

  • TheocritusTheocritus Gary, INPosts: 3,754Member Uncommon
        Its porbably difficult to get an accurate measure at release....So many players will play ridiculous hours at launch trying to get to max level that it throws off what may be the normal hours played.
  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Game peaked at just over 14.000 X-Fire players on the first weekend after launch. The latest weekend it was just over 12.000 X-Fire players. So that is a drop of about 15%.

    I think what will be interesting to see is the first weekend after Mists of Pandaria is released. Will probably see a big drop then.

  • Storman1977Storman1977 Columbus, OHPosts: 207Member
    There is one other factor that I'm yet to see mentioned (admittedly, I skipped a few pages).  X-fire only tracks your game play when you have the app active.  If you do not activate X-fire for some reason, it will not track.  So, if you do not have it pinned to your start up que, then everytime you have an update and restart of your PC, it shuts off.  And, if you're like me, when you restart, you're eager to jump in game, not turn on every little app and background program.  The more people get into the game, the less likely they are to pay attention to whether or not they're tracking how much they're playing.

    image

  • saurus123saurus123 nonePosts: 570Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Thralia
    Originally posted by saurus123
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    its not the numbers of players its played hours

     

    first weeks you leveled your character to 80 next week you go and pvp

    leveling takes more time

     

    if you want to know what happened with wow after gw2 realese

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

     

    play time dropped by 20k/day

    are u seriously comparing a few weeks odl game to one that is over 8y old?

    im not comparing anything

    just saying that wow and other games noted big drop in play hours after gw2

    same will happen after mop release other games will note drop

     

    i quoted that guy to say hes wrong :)

  • AmjocoAmjoco Layton, UTPosts: 4,781Member Uncommon

    This is kinda on topic but off. Anyway....

    I bought and will play MoP but probably for only a month to check out the new things. I will more than likely not re-sub unless it blows me away which I really doubt.  I'm predicting (my own guess) is that after the first months surge of players most that weren't subbed before MoP will not re-sub like me. 

    GW2 is just too fun to change over to WoW again as a main game for me, but I could handle playing it if the changes are really good.

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • ShadoedShadoed BirminghamPosts: 1,499Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Shadoed
    Seriously.....that is the line you want to take on this?

    OK, fair enough, since the last week of August when GW2 launched WoW took a hit and dropped to a low of 15,781 hrs played, since then it has pulled back up to a high of 25,664 hrs played, but GW2 hit a high of 92,946, but has now settled at 44185. So since launch, GW2 has lost 53% of it's players and WoW has increased theirs by over 61%? (how is that for cherry picking figures)

    The point is that we can all throw figures around to make a point, but do any of them actually mean anything when taken from a single, unreliable source? Well, no, of course they dont. I don't believe for one minute that GW2 has lost that many players as i don't think that WoW just suddenly lost 65% of it's player base overnight either because of the GW2 launch (for starters if there was that amount of mass migration from all MMO's, where is the 5, 6, 7Mill box sales to back it up?).

    If you want to believe these figures, fine, that is your choice and i respect that, but don't expect everyone to put as much faith into them as you do. After all, 73.6% of statistics are just made up ;-)

    Charts is in hours played not # of players.

    If I play 12 hours in 1 day and 6 hours in the next day, does that mean the game lost half of me?

    Well, that sorta makes my point for me, there is no direct correlation between the two. It is perfectly possible for GW2 to only have 10,000 players playing 15 hrs a day as it is for WoW to have 500,000 players playing for 20 minutes a day, same figure (or roughly there abouts), different story!

    It must be Thursday, i never could get the hang of Thursdays.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Thralia
    Originally posted by saurus123
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    its not the numbers of players its played hours

     

    first weeks you leveled your character to 80 next week you go and pvp

    leveling takes more time

     

    if you want to know what happened with wow after gw2 realese

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/wow

     

    play time dropped by 20k/day

    are u seriously comparing a few weeks odl game to one that is over 8y old?

    So what shall we compare it to?

    TSW? Tera? SWTOR? RIFT?

    All residual MMORPGs in Xfire?

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • JackdogJackdog Charleston, SCPosts: 6,344Member

    one point is indisputable and unspinnable

     

    GW2 peaked on September 2nd but no other games numbers reflect a gain since that point. September 2nd was a Sunday so lets look at last Sundays which was the 16th's numbers. WoW had about 600 more players hours, SWToR lost about 700, Aion was about the same, EvE picked up 500, LoTRO lost 200...it goes on pretty similar. No game can boast of a significant gain as GW2's numbers have fallen

    Bottom line is that no one picked up on GW2's lost hours so I can only conclude that people who left the "other games" to play GW2 either are playing much more casually or quit playing MMO's altogether. My guess is the former.

    I miss DAoC

  • botrytisbotrytis In Flux, MIPosts: 2,567Member
    Originally posted by Yamota

    Game peaked at just over 14.000 X-Fire players on the first weekend after launch. The latest weekend it was just over 12.000 X-Fire players. So that is a drop of about 15%.

    I think what will be interesting to see is the first weekend after Mists of Pandaria is released. Will probably see a big drop then.

    In order to use X-fire as a judge of player population in ANY game, you need to know the % of players in the game using X-fire. If you don't the numbers are actually meaningless. The reason being, the population of X-fire users can go up and down in the game, it there are fewer players with it installed, it makes it look the game population is going down. As such, X-fire numbers are totally meaningless to use for population discussions.

     

    We can't say, right now, what is going on with the population. Only time will tell.

    image

    "In 50 years, when I talk to my grandchildren about these days, I'll make sure to mention what an accomplished MMO player I was. They are going to be so proud ..."
    by Naqaj - 7/17/2013 MMORPG.com forum

  • bladedancerbladedancer BrightonPosts: 38Member
    Mmm, the only problem is that Xfire numbers are hardly accurate, take anything on there with a grain of salt.

    Peter Griffin: you know those germans, if you dont join the party, they?ll come get ya

  • VorchVorch Somewhere, FLPosts: 800Member

    Almost all MMOs decline in the first 1-3 months, especially when talking about hours played. Every game has people who will leave within that time frame. After that, you have your core audience

     

    A better indicator is growth or decline after the next 3 months to follow. The game is a success at launch. Continued success or failure will be measured by whether or not they can grow the game 5-6 months from release, gain people lost during the initial decline, and keep user retention up.

    In that time frame, ff it grows, then we have a new good MMO on the market. If it stays at a plateau, it will appease a core audience that gets what they want from the game. If it declines FURTHER after 6 months, then they have a problem.

    We'll see what ANet does with patches, dungeons, holiday events (can't wait for halloween), etc.

     

    Also, wth is Xfire?

    "As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days— those are now the only two states you’ll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter BristolPosts: 2,828Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Shadoed
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by Shadoed
    Seriously.....that is the line you want to take on this?

    OK, fair enough, since the last week of August when GW2 launched WoW took a hit and dropped to a low of 15,781 hrs played, since then it has pulled back up to a high of 25,664 hrs played, but GW2 hit a high of 92,946, but has now settled at 44185. So since launch, GW2 has lost 53% of it's players and WoW has increased theirs by over 61%? (how is that for cherry picking figures)

    The point is that we can all throw figures around to make a point, but do any of them actually mean anything when taken from a single, unreliable source? Well, no, of course they dont. I don't believe for one minute that GW2 has lost that many players as i don't think that WoW just suddenly lost 65% of it's player base overnight either because of the GW2 launch (for starters if there was that amount of mass migration from all MMO's, where is the 5, 6, 7Mill box sales to back it up?).

    If you want to believe these figures, fine, that is your choice and i respect that, but don't expect everyone to put as much faith into them as you do. After all, 73.6% of statistics are just made up ;-)

    Charts is in hours played not # of players.

    If I play 12 hours in 1 day and 6 hours in the next day, does that mean the game lost half of me?

    Well, that sorta makes my point for me, there is no direct correlation between the two. It is perfectly possible for GW2 to only have 10,000 players playing 15 hrs a day as it is for WoW to have 500,000 players playing for 20 minutes a day, same figure, different story!

    Yeah but XFire also tracks players.

    GW2 is currently at around 10-11K players and WoW at 5K players.When GW2 reached 90K hours there was like 14K players.

    So GW2 went from 6.5h/player to 4.5h/player the same number the XFire WoW player play per day.

    The question is how many of those X-Fire GW2 players weren't playing upwards of 12 hours for the first few days? I was playing 12 hours and many from my guild as well and now I'm down to 4-6h.

    Really it isn't surprising number of hours per day is going down from release day during summer and no school to back to work period and school.

    But then there is the in game picture - WvW queues still long, starter areas are less packed than before (thank god) but level 50-55+ areas are all populated.

    Many of the uni students of my guild that are only starting this and next week are approaching level 60-70 on their alts.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • ShadoedShadoed BirminghamPosts: 1,499Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Jackdog

    one point is indisputable and unspinnable

     

    GW2 peaked on September 2nd but no other games numbers reflect a gain since that point. September 2nd was a Sunday so lets look at last Sundays which was the 16th's numbers. WoW had about 600 more players hours, SWToR lost about 700, Aion was about the same, EvE picked up 500, LoTRO lost 200...it goes on pretty similar. No game can boast of a significant gain as GW2's numbers have fallen

    Bottom line is that no one picked up on GW2's lost hours so I can only conclude that people who left the "other games" to play GW2 either are playing much more casually or quit playing MMO's altogether. My guess is the former.

    Sorry, but i really had to chuckle at this one. You are going to stick hard to the 'fact' that GW2 stole all of these players from other games using x-fire stats, but completely ignore the same stats that show a 10k rise in hours for WoW (even with a broken client) as GW2 hours fell (meaning that WoW picked up about 25% of it's hours)???

    I don't beleive the stats either way, but had to laugh when you accused others of cherry picking stats to make their own argument and then post that.

    It must be Thursday, i never could get the hang of Thursdays.

  • JackdogJackdog Charleston, SCPosts: 6,344Member
    Originally posted by botrytis

    In order to use X-fire as a judge of player population in ANY game, you need to know the % of players in the game using X-fire. If you don't the numbers are actually meaningless. The reason being, the population of X-fire users can go up and down in the game, it there are fewer players with it installed, it makes it look the game population is going down. As such, X-fire numbers are totally meaningless to use for population discussions.

     

    We can't say, right now, what is going on with the population. Only time will tell.

    not really , the percentage of users in any given game that use XFire will remaing relativly consatant in relation to that game so XFire is useful as a trending tool . Now I will grant you that on the short term XFire users may be more apt to try and new game then drop it but the fact stil remains that the drop in GW2's numbers during September have not cause any significant regain of numbers by the other main stream MMO's which all suffered a significant drop about the time GW2 released.

    I will also grant you that the numbers will be much more acccurate as far as a trend after the game has been out for a few months.

    I miss DAoC

  • JackdogJackdog Charleston, SCPosts: 6,344Member
    Originally posted by Shadoed
     

    Sorry, but i really had to chuckle at this one. You are going to stick hard to the 'fact' that GW2 stole all of these players from other games using x-fire stats, but completely ignore the same stats that show a 10k rise in hours for WoW (even with a broken client) as GW2 hours fell (meaning that WoW picked up about 25% of it's hours)???

    I don't beleive the stats either way, but had to laugh when you accused others of cherry picking stats to make their own argument and then post that.

    what 10K risse in WoW numbers ? Onl;y way you can get a ten K rise is to compare Aug 30 (which was a outlier even for WoW , a patch day ?) at 15K hours with last Sunday and Sunday is always the highh point for alll MMO 's

    Enjoy your cherry pie butr your statement is just spin and no substance. Yopu can cpmpare oranges to pineapples all day long but apples top apples is no game has picked up on any of the hours they lost at GW2's release

    If you are going to compare be honest and compare the same day of the week to the same day of the week, not patch day to highest hour day. The day after your 15K hour day WoW's numbers jumped back 11K hours and have fallen since

     

    I miss DAoC

This discussion has been closed.