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Latest X-fire numbers?

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Comments

  • stevebmbsqdstevebmbsqd Member Posts: 448
    Originally posted by Jackdog

    While I agree that XFire numbers have droppedin the last 3 weeks,the question is where did the players go to?  The #2 western MMO which would be WoW, it's numbers have been flat for the last 3 weeks, # 3 would be SWToR also flat, Aion dropped a bit, LoTRO is pretty much flat. If people are dropping GW2, where are they going ? Certainly not back to WoW, SWToR, Aion, or LoTRO although WoW did take a almost 50% hit on GW2's release date it looks like.Back on Aug 26th WoW had almost 50K hours

    On the MOP thing I just have to chuckle, not sure who thought that was a billiant idea but have to wonder what demographic they are aiming for with pandas.  Will be interesting to see how much of a XFire bounce they get and how long it sustains

     You do realize that the Pandaren were the most requested race in a poll awhile back right? Blizzard didn't just pull that race out of their ass as the one to add.........

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

     


    Originally posted by Jackdog

    Originally posted by krakra70 . It doesn't matter if the decline is deccelerating or steady. What matters is that there is a decline already (not even 1 month after launch). Successful MMOs usually GROW in numbers for the first few years, then they peak and then they start losing players.   
    stil have not answered the question. WoW had right at 49K players on Aug 26 2 days before GW2 release, yesterday it had 21K,. SWToR, LoTRO. and Aion are all also pretty much at the same pont they were at GW2's release. If people are abandoning GW2 in droves as you are claiming where are they going ? WoW lost almost 60% of it's XFire numbers with GW2's release and they don't seem to be going back

     

    maybe they cancelled their subs for a month to check out GW2 and are just waiting til the 25th?
    I don't know, just a guess.

    WoW been losing players long before GW2 released and I seriosly doubt if 60% of the playerbases subs all expired on the 26th of August. If they were going to give GW2 a looksee and did not care for it you would thing that WOW's numbers would already be climbing back to the pre GW2 numbers

    dunno myself,. I do k=know though that the first 2 weeks of GW2 I was logging in 12 to 14 hours a day, now I am down to 4 - 6

    I miss DAoC

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by stevebmbsqd
     

     You do realize that the Pandaren were the most requested race in a poll awhile back right? Blizzard didn't just pull that race out of their ass as the one to add.........

    if that is true then that makes it even funnier. What were the other choices, all something oriental in nature I assume judging from the rest of the expansions content

    I miss DAoC

  • NibiruXNibiruX Member Posts: 11
    Originally posted by hikaru77
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Originally posted by Robokapp
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    that's not what I see.

     

    (not a gw2 player btw).

     

    the decline is descelerating. the game is approaching stability. naturally stability is below the peak not above it otherwise it wouldn't be called a peak.

     

    the final datapoint is abnormal, that does show accelerated decline but I won't make predictions out of 1 datapoint.

     

    edit: Phry, i know the words "steady decline" sound cool and all but the quadratic curve I'm looking at is the exact opposite of 'steady'. a straight line is steady. a parabola is not steady.

    It doesn't matter if the decline is deccelerating or steady. What matters is that there is a decline already (not even 1 month after launch). Successful MMOs usually GROW in numbers for the first few years, then they peak and then they start losing players. 

     

    BTW It's very noticable when doing DEs in level 20-60 zones nowadays. I see myself skipping most of the group events (because I can't find other people) which never happened when I got my first char to 80. 

    It will be even worse after MoP, and i dont like wow. Not even a month and population is droping fast, i wonder why?

    clearly xfire population has nothing to do with actual numbers because we know wow has more player than guild wars 2 but at the same time gw2 has more players than wow on xfire so clearly a drop in xfire players does nothing to demonstrate a drop in actual numbers.

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by hikaru77
     

    It will be even worse after MoP, and i dont like wow. Not even a month and population is droping fast, i wonder why?

    my guess would be school starting, and getting over the I have to get 1 more level before bed syndrome that always occurs with a new games release

    Like I pointed out all of the top 5 MMOs have dropped by 30 - 50  % since GW2 released. Their numbers have not bounced up with GW2's numbers decline. Did everyone just quit playing ?

    I miss DAoC

  • BadaboomBadaboom Member UncommonPosts: 2,380
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by hikaru77
     

    It will be even worse after MoP, and i dont like wow. Not even a month and population is droping fast, i wonder why?

    my guess would be school starting, and getting over the I have to get 1 more level before bed syndrome that always occurs with a new games release

    Like I pointed out all of the top 5 MMOs have dropped by 30 - 50  % since GW2 released. Their numbers have not bounced up with GW2's numbers decline. Did everyone just quit playing ?

    It's clear that the game of choice is still gw2 and people are just playing less.

  • GorkosGorkos Member UncommonPosts: 76
    Who cares? X-fire is not a reliable source, I'm sure most of the GW2 players (including me) don't even use that website. The GW2 servers are full / high in the afternoon, no changes there. /shrug
  • KhinRuniteKhinRunite Member Posts: 879
    Originally posted by STDB
    Who cares? X-fire is not a reliable source, I'm sure most of the GW2 players (including me) don't even use that website. The GW2 servers are full / high in the afternoon, no changes there. /shrug

    The point of the thread is just that. X-Fire numbers. Just take it as it is. XFire users are playing GW2 less and less, but it's still the dominant MMORPG.

    I myself don't use X-fire.

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Originally posted by NibiruX

    clearly xfire population has nothing to do with actual numbers because we know wow has more player than guild wars 2 but at the same time gw2 has more players than wow on xfire so clearly a drop in xfire players does nothing to demonstrate a drop in actual numbers.

    Actually, both can be right. GW2 can have a third of Wows western players but still top it on Xfire, it all depends on how much each player plays each day. Xfire logs how many hours the game is played each day from all players.

    If each GW2 player plays 4 hours and each Wow player 1 GW2 would top the list anyways.

    Then again. you cant compare Xfire ratings between games, it differs a lot how much users of certain games uses it. And it is way more popular in the US than EU.

  • ShadoedShadoed Member UncommonPosts: 1,459
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by krakra70

    .

    It doesn't matter if the decline is deccelerating or steady. What matters is that there is a decline already (not even 1 month after launch). Successful MMOs usually GROW in numbers for the first few years, then they peak and then they start losing players. 

     

    stil have not answered the question. WoW had right at 49K players on Aug 26 2 days before GW2 release, yesterday it had 21K,. SWToR, LoTRO. and Aion are all also pretty much at the same pont they were at GW2's release. If people are abandoning GW2 in droves as you are claiming where are they going ? WoW lost almost 60% of it's XFire numbers with GW2's release and they don't seem to be going back

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

    That being said, x-fire numbers are crap anyway, whether it is GW2's so called decline or WoW's. Of course GW2 hours played have dropped as people settle into their normal play routines after the initial rush, the same as Pandaria will see an initial boost and then tail off back to the norm again later on, it is just the nature of these things.

    It must be Thursday, i never could get the hang of Thursdays.

  • sr7olsnipersr7olsniper Member UncommonPosts: 206
    Originally posted by halflife25
    Originally posted by Eir_S
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    Best kid's game, maybe.

    And you don't have the population statistics for GW2, the only evidence is that people are playing less than they did at launch.  That happens to every MMO.

    Are we really gonna fgo down that path again? MOP is for kids and GW2 is for grown ups with its fluffy asura and 'my little pony' pink bows? why can't you people disagree with other people opinion without generalization or labels? seriiously? been playing GW2 for 20 days and i don't see how and what in this game puts us in a position to call MOP a kiddies game. The game is full of kids and pre teens.

    Actually you forgot, Stitch from Lilo Stich (azura), Tinker Bell wannabes (Sylvari) and Beasts from Beaty and the beast (Char). NOT to mention the cutscenes were obviously designed by disney, just look at the ending one for the personal story and  you even see the Magical kingdom. Gotta love the hipocresy of the GW2 crowd. 

    At least with a sub game they know that people won't tolerate bullshit and leave. With anet we have no recourse but to buy our own lube so our assholes don't get too stretched out from getting bent over a table at Anets will. - Hrimnir

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Originally posted by sr7olsniper

    Actually you forgot, Stitch from Lilo Stich (azura), Tinker Bell wannabes (Sylvari) and Beasts from Beaty and the beast (Char). NOT to mention the cutscenes were obviously designed by disney, just look at the ending one for the personal story and  you even see the Magical kingdom. Gotta love the hipocresy of the GW2 crowd. 

    We can at least spell.

    But the MOP attack was over the top, all fantasy MMOs have silly parts.

  • krakra70krakra70 Member Posts: 122
    Originally posted by Shadoed
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by krakra70

    .

    It doesn't matter if the decline is deccelerating or steady. What matters is that there is a decline already (not even 1 month after launch). Successful MMOs usually GROW in numbers for the first few years, then they peak and then they start losing players. 

     

    stil have not answered the question. WoW had right at 49K players on Aug 26 2 days before GW2 release, yesterday it had 21K,. SWToR, LoTRO. and Aion are all also pretty much at the same pont they were at GW2's release. If people are abandoning GW2 in droves as you are claiming where are they going ? WoW lost almost 60% of it's XFire numbers with GW2's release and they don't seem to be going back

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

    That being said, x-fire numbers are crap anyway, whether it is GW2's so called decline or WoW's. Of course GW2 hours played have dropped as people settle into their normal play routines after the initial rush, the same as Pandaria will see an initial boost and then tail off back to the norm again later on, it is just the nature of these things.

    Number of players have also dropped from 17k+ (if I remember right) to 11.4k as of yesterday.

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Originally posted by Shadoed

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

    That being said, x-fire numbers are crap anyway, whether it is GW2's so called decline or WoW's. Of course GW2 hours played have dropped as people settle into their normal play routines after the initial rush, the same as Pandaria will see an initial boost and then tail off back to the norm again later on, it is just the nature of these things.

    Number of players have also dropped from 17k+ (if I remember right) to 11.4k as of yesterday.

    Because more players prefer wednesday or something?

    Listen, the numbers are useful for large trends (even if technical reason can mess them up). Looking on Wow players the last 3 or 6 months will actually tell you something, but the last 2 weeks nothing.

    Maybe they are saving up for MOPs release or something, maybe they are bleeding players, or maybe the numbers are just wrong. 

    As for GW2 the first 2 weeks will always have more logged hours for any game.

    Comparing different game never have given the numbers they should have, some games have more Xfire users than others.

    Yes, GW2 is doing well at the moment but that is the only conclusion we can get of these numbers. How well is hard to say, I do not know a single GW2 user who have Xfire, and none who plays Wow either.

  • udonudon Member UncommonPosts: 1,803
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    the game has shown a steady decline on Xfire.. but.. if people are still queueing for W v W PvP, then i have to wonder how accurate that is.. although, the sample sizes are actually pretty small, so it might just indicate that Xfire users don't really stick to any one game for any length of time.. image

    I have believed this for a long time now.  Xfire is largely used by game hopers who play a game for 20-40 hours than move on.  Lots of people play MMO's like single player games these days which is why box sales make up such a large portion of a MMO's revenue stream.

  • halflife25halflife25 Member Posts: 737
    Originally posted by Loke666
    Originally posted by sr7olsniper

    Actually you forgot, Stitch from Lilo Stich (azura), Tinker Bell wannabes (Sylvari) and Beasts from Beaty and the beast (Char). NOT to mention the cutscenes were obviously designed by disney, just look at the ending one for the personal story and  you even see the Magical kingdom. Gotta love the hipocresy of the GW2 crowd. 

    We can at least spell.

    But the MOP attack was over the top, all fantasy MMOs have silly parts.

    /facepalm

  • VhalnVhaln Member Posts: 3,159

    Game-hoppers are a normal part of any MMO, including WoW.  As is the resulting population decline.  In a really successful game, though, it's not that there are no game hoppers, it's just that the success yields a constrant stream of new players, replacing the people leaving.  At least for the first few months, and even up to a year or two, if a game is popular enough.

     

    That's where my concern lies.  It's not that some people are quitting GW2.  That's to be expected..  but I'm not seeing new players showing up, enough.  We've just got the typical launch surge, and that's it, like every other MMO (since WoW).  There's still time for that to turn around, but I don't know.  Despite the overwhelmingly positive reviews and word-of-mouth, the casual masses still doen't even seem to know the game exists.

    When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.

  • Ethos86Ethos86 Member Posts: 124
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

     

    Hey you WoW fan over there, you are hiding it very poorly you know. Have you checked the big shrink in numbers on Xfire there are for WoW's hours played starting on August 25th? Like they lost more than half, and still didn't recover from that over a month now. How would that be? Even with releasing the MoP update to the public right after GW2 release to counter it.

    Let me tell you, it's when GW2 released. And yes WoW will rise again a bit with MoP, but it will also decline after the launch back to it's normal state, just like GW2 is declining now to find it's steady point of hours played. If you look to the chart then you should see that the fall is slowing down actually... but yeah. Fact is, WoW isn't king anymore, for the last month, if you look at Xfire numbers (and no other MMO has done that since WoW's release). We will see in 6 months when both MoP and GW2 aren't new any longer who's where then, and who's on top.

    Mkay?

    All I can do now is give credit to WoW for still currently being reasonably high on hours played, concidering it's such an old game. But even a WoW fan should give GW2 credit for what is has achieved already. GW2 is the most succesfull MMO launch since WoW, if you like it or not.

  • ReizlaReizla Member RarePosts: 4,092
    Originally posted by Sevenstar61

    Here's the link:

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

     

    Right now 44k hours/week, comparing to 93k hours/week in peak

    But still #3 for the last 14 days. But looking at gaming hours compared to LoL, it's now 1/3rd, while it was close to 2/3rd 2 weeks ago when GW2 held the #3 position.

    I'm also wondering how GW2 will do after the 25th when MoP is released. I figure WoW will go up from it's current #5 position and even take over the #3 position GW2 now holds. But will GW2 then move to #4 or drop dramatically in hours played as well?

  • Ethos86Ethos86 Member Posts: 124
    Originally posted by coretex666
    Originally posted by Ethos86
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

     

    Hey you WoW fan over there, you are hiding it very poorly you know. Have you checked the big shrink in numbers on Xfire there are for WoW's hours played starting on August 25th? Like they lost more than half, and still didn't recover from that over a month now. How would that be? Even with releasing the MoP update to the public right after GW2 release to counter it.

    Let me tell you, it's when GW2 released. And yes WoW will rise again a bit with MoP, but it will also decline after the launch back to it's normal state, just like GW2 is declining now to find it's steady point of hours played. If you look to the chart then you should see that the fall is slowing down actually... but yeah. Fact is, WoW isn't king anymore, for the last month, if you look at Xfire numbers (and no other MMO has done that since WoW's release). We will see in 6 months when both MoP and GW2 aren't new any longer who's where then, and who's on top.

    Mkay?

    All I can do now is give credit to WoW for still currently being reasonably high on hours played, concidering it's such an old game. But even a WoW fan should give GW2 credit for what is has achieved already. GW2 is the most succesfull MMO launch since WoW, if you like it or not.

    For WoW, we can get more accurate indicators. I would wait for judging on the success of MoP until Blizz releases number of subscribers as at..lets say...31.12.2012.

    The hours played in WoW now have to be the lowest they can get. I mean before the expansion, almost no guilds are raiding, there is no arena, no pvp rankings, no conquest points, nothing. My whole guild is completely inactive at the moment. The first day MoP hits, there will be 50 active people at least.

    But I agree that WoW is declining on Xfire just like GW, so that both "camps" can be happy I believe. Pitty the fans of these games argue against each other so much.

    I pitty it too. And I agree with your points, I'm not just a blind GW2 fan. Just felt like I needed to give some counterweight to the other guy's post.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter Member UncommonPosts: 3,066

    People need to understand what X-Fire numbers represent.

    X-Fire numbers represent very accurately the X-Fire users preferences.

    What we don't know is how  much X-fire users patterns mirror those of the non x-fire users.

    For example, for X-fire users GW2 is more played than WoW (even taking in account the bug that x-fire already fixed) while for the rest of the world that isn't mirrored.

    Then we have other factors.

    GW2 launched during the summer hollidays - I was playing 12 hours a day during the first week, now I'm playing 4-6 during weekdays and 6+ during weekends.

     

    If one looks at the peek numbers, both hours and players, we see a drop of hours played by player. from over 6 hours/day to 4.5hour/day.

     

    There are some comments that say that other games numbers kept increasing after release.

    Gw2 started with over 1 million players, though and reached at least 2 millions.

    We are talking of an order of magnitude higher compared to pretty much every other new MMO release with the exception of SWTOR.

    So we are talking of 30-50% of WoW population for the Europe/America market, so I don't know how much growth do people expect in 2 weeks.

    Mid and high level zones seem well populated.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by Shadoed
     

    If you bothered to look at the support forums on X-fire (don't use it, but checked it out), the application stopped working for a lot of players of WoW when the Pandaria patch landed as it didn't recognise the 64bit client and those that couldn't be bothered to manually fix it are just not having hours logged, even those that have still don't have the client working in game apparently. Not some magical drop in players, not some mass migration in one day, simply a technical problem.

     

    kind of amazing that the breaking patch landed at the same time as GW2 launched.

    Once again though trends are the key and since the last week of August when GW2 launched all of the top 5 western MMO's took a hit of between 25 and 60 percent. It is just not WoW that GW2 affected, SWToR, LoTRO, Aion, RIFT, TERA even EVE have all took a significant hit. People can't just cherry pick GW2's numbers and expect to be taken seriously, if you are going to look at the numbers look at all the numbers.

    I miss DAoC

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter Member UncommonPosts: 3,066
    Originally posted by coretex666
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter

    People need to understand what X-Fire numbers represent.

    X-Fire numbers represent very accurately the X-Fire users preferences.

    What we don't know is how  much X-fire users patterns mirror those of the non x-fire users.

    For example, for X-fire users GW2 is more played than WoW (even taking in account the bug that x-fire already fixed) while for the rest of the world that isn't mirrored.

    Then we have other factors.

    GW2 launched during the summer hollidays - I was playing 12 hours a day during the first week, now I'm playing 4-6 during weekdays and 6+ during weekends.

     

    If one looks at the peek numbers, both hours and players, we see a drop of hours played by player. from over 6 hours/day to 4.5hour/day.

     

    There are some comments that say that other games numbers kept increasing after release.

    Gw2 started with over 1 million players, though and reached at least 2 millions.

    We are talking of an order of magnitude higher compared to pretty much every other new MMO release with the exception of SWTOR.

    So we are talking of 30-50% of WoW population for the Europe/America market, so I don't know how much growth do people expect in 2 weeks.

    Mid and high level zones seem well populated.

    People need to understand the very basics of statistics. Xfire users are nothing more than a sample.

    They aren't a sample.

    They are a group - videogamers that use x-fire.

    A representative sample needs to take into account several groups (population subsets) and their proportion of the general population.

    If I want to make a poll for the US elections, I need to poll 51% women and 49% men, I need to make sure I poll age groups accordingly, urban population, rural population, white, black, yellow, purple, what states, etc.

    A valid sample would grab 1000 random GW2 buyers, 500/500 America/Europe, from different servers and monitor if they are still playing and how much they are playing.

    This would be a valid representation.

    For example, if X-fire was a valid sample, one would think there are more or at least the same amount of players playing GW2 as they are playing WoW (I'm talking users and not hours).

    Now, chances are that if a game is in decline it will also be in decline in X-Fire. Percentages of drops on the other hand will be harder to correlate.

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • KareliaKarelia Member Posts: 668
    Originally posted by krakra70
    Just looking at the chart at http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2 it's easy to see that gw2's population is shrinking very quickly. And the best is yet to come (MoP).

    +1

  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Originally posted by coretex666.

    People need to understand the very basics of statistics. Xfire users are nothing more than a sample.

    They dont anyways.

    I am still waiting for the Wow thread: "So this game have topped on Xfire" since every other game do have them, but every single thread that uses Xfire as single proof is flawed.

This discussion has been closed.