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Guild Wars 2: 2 Million and Counting

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  • rygard49rygard49 Huntington Beach, CAPosts: 975Member
    Originally posted by cura
    Originally posted by Lethality
    Originally posted by Adiaris
    Originally posted by Lethality
    Originally posted by Adiaris
    Originally posted by Lethality
    Originally posted by Nikkita
    Originally posted by Lethality
    Hehe, no. This game isn't mainstream enough... it has a limited appeal, and there are signs that the foundation has cracks in it (endgame, broken designs, balance.)

    According to Anet they want to beat WOW in sales and be number one. I think they know for that they have to go for mass appeal hence mainstream.

    But the design *isn't* mainstream. It tries to be, but falls short in the general appeal.

    According to who? 

    Most friends and guild members.

    Then we strike off even cause mine feel the opposite. In fact, I have 3 friends who have never got into MMOs that bought it and love it. 

     

    It's because it doesn't work like an MMO... no mechanics at all for grouping vs not grouping, dimished importance of character progression, etc. It's closer to a "social" game with the "Do XX/XX Vistas" than an MMO. And the depth is about on par with Diablo III.

     

     

    You mean it doesnt work like obsolete MMO desgin a'la wow and clones. Thanks god becouse it was the wrost thing that happened to mmorpgs.

    How does MMO design become obsolete in your opinion? Because you're tired of it? Or should it be based on continuing success? WoW is still the big fish in the MMO market for the time being.

    Why was WoW the worst thing to happen to MMOs? It drew a lot of attention to the genre and blew up the market for online social gaming. Now we have tons of great games, like GW2, that likely wouldn't have been green lit had there been no market for them.

    You need to thank WoW for showing the world that MMOs can do well in the mass market.

  • IceAgeIceAge SomeWhere In ..Posts: 1,013Member Common
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by IceAge
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by caetftl
    Originally posted by QuicklyScott

    It is estimated WoW sold between 60-80 million boxes.

    WoW is estimated at around half of that.  To achieve those numbers they would have had to sell 15-20million boxes of the original, and then every expansion after that would have had to sell the exact same amount. 

    If the game, in its 8 or so years of existence, had perfect retention and absolutely no acquisition after the first year then you'd be right. It would also be the most extreme anomaly ever to happen in the sale of any service ever offered in the entire history of mankind... and, yes, that includes prostitution. 

    WoW has been growing since the release to around 2010/2011 if I am correct which then had 12 mil subs! Let's just say that 20 mil has tried WoW since 2004 till today, it's a bit much , but just let's assume! From the total of 20 mil, 10 mil are the ones who bought boxes, since the rest are from Asia and most of them play from internet caffe's where they don't need to buy a boxe in order to play, they just need to pay by hour.

    From the total of 10 mils of box buyers, in no way, they could ALL buy all 4 expansion.

    Let's see :

    Burning Crusade = 2.4 in the first 24h. 1st month 3.5 mils copies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_The_Burning_Crusade )

    Wrath of the Lich King = 2.8 mil in the first 24h ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_Wrath_of_the_Lich_King

    Cataclysm = 3.3 mil in the first 24 hours ( see above link for the source )

    That makes 9.6 mils of box sales. No, it does not mean that if they sold 2.8 mil in the first 24 hours, it doubled in the first month ( see Burning Crusade )

    Ok, let's say they sold 4 mil copies on each expansion, since WoW sold after the first month too! Fuck, let's put 5 mils each expansion. That means we have 15 mil boxes sold. Let's do a simple math now! 15 mil : 3 expansion, that's 5 mil players ( which is normal and kinda true from the blizzard reports ) and then let's add the 5 mil to the 15 mil , since peoples owned and payed for the box since the release of it! That would be 20 mils of boxes sold in EU/NA!

    Heck, let's put 25 mils boxes, but that's it! No 40-60 or 80 mils boxes sold!

    That was a rather unintelligible ramble of made up numbers and arbitrary calculation to prove your point. The fact that you were snarky about it made it quite amusing.

    Can you share the formula you used for churn to get that 20 million? You did figure in churn, right?

    I ask because i don't see it anywhere in your numbers - numbers you so smugly present to support your position.

    See, my post to him was solely about the missing part of his math, a piece you seem to have overlooked, as well. If you took a moment from jumping on people to try to prove them wrong, you'd see that.

     

     

     

    Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :

    I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that :

    1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me!

    2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil.

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

    I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know!

    Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you!

    Reporter: What's behind Blizzard success, and how do you make your gamers happy?
    Blizzard Boss: Making gamers happy is not my concern, making money.. yes!

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by IceAge
    Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that :1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me!2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil.That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know!Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you!

    I do see that you have used some rudimentary maths, but you have still left out honey badgers. Also, you skipped to guessing the final number directly, instead of guessing an intermediate number. You're supposed to guess an intermediate number like the retention rate and then do calculations using the guessed at intermediate numbers. I don't know why, but for some reason guessing the intermediate numbers, and then calculating is preferable to guessing the final result.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • roo67roo67 londonPosts: 402Member
    Originally posted by IceAge
     

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

     

    Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ?

    Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .

     

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,641Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     

    You didn't use maths, blasting or even Honey Badgers in your numbers. You could have at least thrown in some XFire.

    Like this: 8 years at 9 million players at a 50% retention rate gives you 9 million + (4.5 million times 7), which is HONEY BADGER!!!!1! No, it's 40.5 million boxes sold.

    See? That's how we roll around here.

     

    Word. image

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
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  • Sora2810Sora2810 New Columbia, PAPosts: 567Member
    Originally posted by kadepsyson
    Originally posted by fatboy21007
    Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

    WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

    You are true; because GW2 has no subscription.

    Played - M59, EQOA, EQ, EQ2, PS, SWG[Favorite], DAoC, UO, RS, MXO, CoH/CoV, TR, FFXI, FoM, WoW, Eve, Rift, SWTOR, TSW.
    Playing - PS2, AoW, GW2

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,587Member Uncommon

    GW2 is much less a direct competitor for WoW than any other MMO. Because of the B2P model, for most, it means, they can play GW2 and they can play WoW. From the discussions, I've had in Vent, many in GW2 are still going to buy MoP. The purpose of GW2 was not to take down any individual games but to attack the revenue model itself. I'm not convinced it fully succeeded. Maybe only halfway. It proved B2P is viable, but I don't think it's going to stop WoW.  It only succeeded in opening up options, not closing them. To me, this is better anyway.

     

     

     

  • roo67roo67 londonPosts: 402Member
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     

    You didn't use maths, blasting or even Honey Badgers in your numbers. You could have at least thrown in some XFire.

    Like this: 8 years at 9 million players at a 50% retention rate gives you 9 million + (4.5 million times 7), which is HONEY BADGER!!!!1! No, it's 40.5 million boxes sold.

    See? That's how we roll around here.

     

    Word. image

    a) whats a honey badger is it like a normal badger ?

    b) will they be playable in the expansion that folllows MoP ?

    image

  • sonoggisonoggi tdot, ONPosts: 1,119Member
    Originally posted by roo67
    Originally posted by IceAge
     

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

     

    Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ?

    Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .

     

     this pretty much ends the debate. 2mill copies in the first few WEEKS is amazing. we should return to the WoW vs. GW2 debate in one year. class dismissed. 

  • FuryVFuryV BlahblahblahPosts: 341Member Uncommon

    Seriously happy to hear this.  Well done Anet.  May both WoW & GW2 live alongside together for years to come.

     

    /Beginhate

  • SirBalinSirBalin Joppa, MDPosts: 1,150Member Uncommon
    What this doesn't show is all the returns.  I know a ton of people that returned the game.  I returned 2 copies simply because their poor customer service.  I was without the game after being hacked for a week before they even responded to say they have seen my ticket.  A week later they sent a message telling me how to fix it, I responded explaining that I get they are busy, but thats just unacceptable and I've already charged back.  I know just in the community I play in alone probably 10 out of 40 or so returned it...so i'm sure were not the only people that have had this happen.  Would love to know the real net numbers.

    Incognito
    www.incognito-gaming.us
    "You're either with us or against us"

  • KothosesKothoses GalwayPosts: 760Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by silverreign

    since the game isnt sub based, the box sales vs actual people playing are deceiving. i bought the game but i am not playing anymore. yet my box sale is being considered as a playing member. 2 million box sales doesnt exactly mean 2 million people playing

    Still means 2 million box sales...... from a game where a good portion of its revenue is going to come from box sales.... not sure what else you want to hear from them?

    Promoting thought a new Gaming video blog http://www.youtube.com/user/quinnthalas discussing games, gamers and the internet with gameplay footage as background.

  • waynejr2waynejr2 West Toluca Lake, CAPosts: 4,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by tawess

    How good for them

     

    "World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

     

    That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

    Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

  • HrimnirHrimnir Qeynos, COPosts: 1,597Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Galadourn
    Originally posted by kadepsyson
    Originally posted by fatboy21007
    Look out WoW,  some1 is gaining steam XD

    WoW has more subscribers than GW2 ever will

    define 'ever'....

    Not that im a wow fan or a blizzard fan, but if you're going to be fair, then you have to compare just plain old sales of the game's boxes, not even current subs.  And although we don't have that number i think its a safe bet that in the 15-20 million range.

    GW2 will not reach that number, period, just won't happen.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • waynejr2waynejr2 West Toluca Lake, CAPosts: 4,471Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by roo67
    Originally posted by IceAge
     

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

     

    Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ?

    Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .

     

    But you would also have to adjust the number relative to the size of the mmorpg market size.  The market was much smaller back then.

  • roo67roo67 londonPosts: 402Member
    Originally posted by waynejr2
    Originally posted by tawess

    How good for them

     

    "World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

     

    That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

    Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

    Also you can't really compare sales of expansion pack to an already established game to a new game .

    As I said with my previous post . You can only compare sales from month one after release of WoW vanilla to GW2 at this point .

    When Guild Wars 2 releases its 3rd Xpac then you can compare it to Cataclysm to do anything else is a bit stupid at this point .

  • IceAgeIceAge SomeWhere In ..Posts: 1,013Member Common
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by IceAge
    Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :

     

    I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that :

    1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me!

    2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil.

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

    I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know!

    Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you!



    I do see that you have used some rudimentary maths, but you have still left out honey badgers. Also, you skipped to guessing the final number directly, instead of guessing an intermediate number. You're supposed to guess an intermediate number like the retention rate and then do calculations using the guessed at intermediate numbers. I don't know why, but for some reason guessing the intermediate numbers, and then calculating is preferable to guessing the final result.

     

    Retention rate does not actually means the increase in boxe sales! You added up the retation rate from the begining to this date ( 8 years ) 8x9 = 72 + 9 mils = 81 : 2 = 40.5 mils! This is your number. Retention means static , and you cannot use it when it comes to boxe sales! You cannot multiply numbers of subscriptions with years and then say that 40.5 mils boxes have been sold. What you've done is basically say that 40.5 mil have been played WoW over 8 years! If I understood that correctly! And even so , you cannot actually say that all players have been purchased all the 3 expansion, because that would end up as 121.5 mil boxes sold.

    Anyway , I am not saying that my calculation is correct! What I am saying is that retention is retantion, and you cannot multiply it by 8 for the sake of just muliply it because it has been out for 8 years!

    The same 4.5 mil players ( numbers ) today, are the same 4.5 mil from last year! And the 4.5 mil for the last year are the same 4.5 mil from 2 years ago! And yes, there are almost the same players! You can't say that 4.5 mil from this year , are are totaly new from the 4.5 players from last year or 2 year ago! Ok, maybe not ALL of them, but the majority!

    Originally posted by roo67
    Originally posted by IceAge
     

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

     

    Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ?

    Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .

     

    Coming from this person it had: http://www.pvcmuseum.com/games/charts/world-of-warcraft-sales.htm Worldwide (January 2005) - 700,000

    Reporter: What's behind Blizzard success, and how do you make your gamers happy?
    Blizzard Boss: Making gamers happy is not my concern, making money.. yes!

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by roo67
    Originally posted by Loktofeit Originally posted by lizardbones   You didn't use maths, blasting or even Honey Badgers in your numbers. You could have at least thrown in some XFire. Like this: 8 years at 9 million players at a 50% retention rate gives you 9 million + (4.5 million times 7), which is HONEY BADGER!!!!1! No, it's 40.5 million boxes sold. See? That's how we roll around here.  
    Word.
    a) whats a honey badger is it like a normal badger ?

    b) will they be playable in the expansion that folllows MoP ?




    a) Honey Badger do not give a f***. They just don't.

    b) I don't think so. But if you could, I might actually be able to stomach the mess that was Cataclysm's leveling to play one.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,587Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Bladestrom
    Only morons claim wow is dead.

    If by dead, you mean the single largest subscription based online game for 8 years running and continues to retain a huge majority of it's player base even to the point if any game could just pick up a fraction of what WoW dropped off, it would be considered a tremendous success, then Yeah. WoW is dead.

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,587Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by waynejr2
    Originally posted by tawess

    How good for them

     

    "World of Warcraft Cataclysm sells 3.3M units in its first day out"

     

    That should tell you units sold equals jack until the concurent users numbers show up. (and that of is where things turn a bit more bleak for WoW.) But then again, good for them. that shows that they have a good chance to make some serious money and that in turn is good for the future employment of the dev team. So *thumbs up*

    Well, since you opened the doors to the 3.3 opening day cata numbers:  What if MOP has a lower number on opening day?  What would that tell us?

    It would tell us that MOP had lower numbers on opening day.

    I gotta love how a congratulatory thread going out to ANET turns into a "WoW's goin down" thread.

    It just goes to show you how big WoW REALLY is. When the game can dominate Arena Net's own success threads in 3rd party forums, forget about player bases.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by IceAge
    Originally posted by lizardbones   Originally posted by IceAge Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :   I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that : 1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me! 2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil. That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold! I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know! Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you! I do see that you have used some rudimentary maths, but you have still left out honey badgers. Also, you skipped to guessing the final number directly, instead of guessing an intermediate number. You're supposed to guess an intermediate number like the retention rate and then do calculations using the guessed at intermediate numbers. I don't know why, but for some reason guessing the intermediate numbers, and then calculating is preferable to guessing the final result.  Retention rate does not actually means the increase in boxe sales! You added up the retation rate from the begining to this date ( 8 years ) 8x9 = 72 + 9 mils = 81 : 2 = 40.5 mils! This is your number. Retention means static , and you cannot use it when it comes to boxe sales! You cannot multiply numbers of subscriptions with years and then say that 40.5 mils boxes have been sold. What you've done is basically say that 40.5 mil have been played WoW over 8 years! If I understood that correctly! And even so , you cannot actually say that all players have been purchased all the 3 expansion, because that would end up as 121.5 mil boxes sold.Anyway , I am not saying that my calculation is correct! What I am saying is that retention is retantion, and you cannot multiply it by 8 for the sake of just muliply it because it has been out for 8 years!The same 4.5 mil players ( numbers ) today, are the same 4.5 mil from last year! And the 4.5 mil for the last year are the same 4.5 mil from 2 years ago! And yes, there are almost the same players! You can't say that 4.5 mil from this year , are are totaly new from the 4.5 players from last year or 2 year ago! Ok, maybe not ALL of them, but the majority! Originally posted by roo67 Originally posted by IceAge  
    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!  
    Out of interest how many copys did WoW Vanilla sell in its first month ? Expansions to a popular established  game such as well are bound to sell well  . So really you need to compare the initial months sales of GW2 and WoW in such an arguement .  
    Coming from this person it had: http://www.pvcmuseum.com/games/charts/world-of-warcraft-sales.htm Worldwide (January 2005) - 700,000


    You have added exclamation points, this is good. Not as good as Honey Badger, but still, pretty good. You are also adding references to some of your statements. This is really good. You're still missing some intermediate guessed numbers though. You're supposed to guess a ratio of something and use it in your calculations. Make sure everyone knows it's a "ballpark" figure and you're golden.

    Because Bacon, that's why.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • TorvalTorval Oregon CountryPosts: 7,187Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by IceAge
    Originally posted by Loktofeit
    Originally posted by IceAge

    WoW has been growing since the release to around 2010/2011 if I am correct which then had 12 mil subs! Let's just say that 20 mil has tried WoW since 2004 till today, it's a bit much , but just let's assume! From the total of 20 mil, 10 mil are the ones who bought boxes, since the rest are from Asia and most of them play from internet caffe's where they don't need to buy a boxe in order to play, they just need to pay by hour.

    From the total of 10 mils of box buyers, in no way, they could ALL buy all 4 expansion.

    Let's see :

    Burning Crusade = 2.4 in the first 24h. 1st month 3.5 mils copies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_The_Burning_Crusade )

    Wrath of the Lich King = 2.8 mil in the first 24h ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft:_Wrath_of_the_Lich_King

    Cataclysm = 3.3 mil in the first 24 hours ( see above link for the source )

    That makes 9.6 mils of box sales. No, it does not mean that if they sold 2.8 mil in the first 24 hours, it doubled in the first month ( see Burning Crusade )

    Ok, let's say they sold 4 mil copies on each expansion, since WoW sold after the first month too! Fuck, let's put 5 mils each expansion. That means we have 15 mil boxes sold. Let's do a simple math now! 15 mil : 3 expansion, that's 5 mil players ( which is normal and kinda true from the blizzard reports ) and then let's add the 5 mil to the 15 mil , since peoples owned and payed for the box since the release of it! That would be 20 mils of boxes sold in EU/NA!

    Heck, let's put 25 mils boxes, but that's it! No 40-60 or 80 mils boxes sold!

    That was a rather unintelligible ramble of made up numbers and arbitrary calculation to prove your point. The fact that you were snarky about it made it quite amusing.

    Can you share the formula you used for churn to get that 20 million? You did figure in churn, right?

    I ask because i don't see it anywhere in your numbers - numbers you so smugly present to support your position.

    See, my post to him was solely about the missing part of his math, a piece you seem to have overlooked, as well. If you took a moment from jumping on people to try to prove them wrong, you'd see that.

    Ok, fine! I will explain how I ended up at those numbers :

    I toke the offical announcements for box sales for each expansion WoW had untill now! The vast result was that :

    1) BC sold 3.5 mil copies in the first month! Can you safely say that it sold more then 5 mil copies untill now? With a subscription base of 12 mil at is *finest* and 9 mil which they have now? With 50% from the total subs in EU/NA where boxes counts? If yes, please tell me your facts! I will not be offended, trust me!

    2) WOLK sold 2.8 mil 1st 24 hours while Cata sold 3.3 mil. Then Blizzard stoped releasing numbers after the first month ( unless you find a source ) . Now, how many boxes do you think they sold untill now? Where the base subs have been around 4-6 mils ? I add 5 mils copies each expansion, because the medium subscriptions were at 5 mil.

    That's why I ended up with 15 mils boxes sold ONLY for expansions! I then add another 5 mil boxes of the original WoW + another 5 mil just for the sake of being .. wrong! Heck, you can also add 5 mil in plus if you want! That would be 30 mil boxes sold!

    I did not put Asia here, since Blizzard never released Asia box sales, because they don't sell boxes over there as you may know!

    Don't get me wrong, I like when someone comes and .. tell me some good arguments about how I am wrong, so if you do have some good arguments, please share them with me! Again, I will not be offended and I will peaceful communicate with you!

    Except WoW never had 9 - 12 million subscriptions.  It had 9 - 12 million active accounts of which a majority of those were in Asia.  The payment model there isn't the $15/mo is it.  So they weren't generating $15/mo  * 9mill players.  They were generating a few million sub dollars plus the rest from Asia which is really hard to calculate.  It's still not surpassed by any Western game, but it pales in comparison to the most popular Asian games.  I think WoW comes in at 5th in revenue comparison to the F2P games.

    I want to point this out because WoW's success is only measured against the Western market but uses it's entire player pool to do so.  The hard to swallow fact is that, compared with Asia, the West is a much smaller demographic.

    ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Stone Mountain, GAPosts: 13,641Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     


    Originally posted by roo67

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by lizardbones   You didn't use maths, blasting or even Honey Badgers in your numbers. You could have at least thrown in some XFire. Like this: 8 years at 9 million players at a 50% retention rate gives you 9 million + (4.5 million times 7), which is HONEY BADGER!!!!1! No, it's 40.5 million boxes sold. See? That's how we roll around here.  
    Word.
    a) whats a honey badger is it like a normal badger ?

     

    b) will they be playable in the expansion that folllows MoP ?

     



    a) Honey Badger do not give a f***. They just don't.

    b) I don't think so. But if you could, I might actually be able to stomach the mess that was Cataclysm's leveling to play one.

     

    a) Honey Badger is one badass badger. Check this out.

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,587Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
     

    Except WoW never had 9 - 12 million subscriptions.  It had 9 - 12 million active accounts of which a majority of those were in Asia.  The payment model there isn't the $15/mo is it.  So they weren't generating $15/mo  * 9mill players.  They were generating a few million sub dollars plus the rest from Asia which is really hard to calculate.  It's still not surpassed by any Western game, but it pales in comparison to the most popular Asian games.  I think WoW comes in at 5th in revenue comparison to the F2P games.

    I want to point this out because WoW's success is only measured against the Western market but uses it's entire player pool to do so.  The hard to swallow fact is that, compared with Asia, the West is a much smaller demographic.

    ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

    I can appreciate your perspective and there is a lot of truth especially about the differences between the western and asian marktets, except it reads like you are trying to trivialize their revenue from the asian markets. Or trying to get us to exclude it.

    And you are also making a pretty bold prediction there. Don't forget, this is ANET's 2nd attempt at this. And it really doesn't look like it's going to happen this time either.

  • ThraliaThralia EngerPosts: 219Member
    Originally posted by Torvaldr

    ANet will eventually crush WoW because it only has room to grow for several years.  WoW has very little room left to progress.  In all it's kind of a silly comparison because WoW was from a previous paradigm and the world and market are much different now.  I still believe that no one will topple the success Blizzard had at their pinnacle with WoW, including Blizzard themselves.

    ROFLMAO ! You are DELUSIONAL kid ;)

     

    gw2 sold 2m copies by now as b2p game?  Diablo 3 sold 10m copies prerelease (with wows annual pass but it doesnt matter cause money is money.

     

    not even talking about WoW.. there will never again be a mmorpg so successfull because the market is overflooded.

     

    except project titan possibly. i bought every single  blizzard game since warctaft 2 and i blizzard never failed to impress me and i gladly give them my money for their next MMORPG .

     

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