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On day 1, MOP will sell 4M boxes in the west.
There is a lot going on with that graph, most noteably a wow patch that borked Xfire.
Let´s see.. which game would you rather be the owner of
1. Sold 2M copies, with no subscription, meaning no more income for awhile
2. Sold 4M copies the first 24hrs, and have a resonable chance to collect $15 per month for at least the next 6 months from those 4M people. Also will probably sell another 1-2M in the month after launch.
And as has been pointed out. Xfire is not indicative of the average WOW player. WOW is a fairly casual game, the types of people that use Xfire are MUCH more likely to be game locusts (jumping on new games as soon as they are launched). It is similar to forums on a site like this. For instance, TSW just announced they sold only 200k boxes and probably have 100k subscribers, yet their forums are MORE active than WOWs on this site. My guess is most WOW players have never even heard of GW2, Xfire, or mmorpg.com
To be honest, we won´t know until day 1 of MOP. If MOP sells noticeably less than Cata, then we know the downward path has begun. As Blizzard announced to their stockholders, the majority of lost subscribers were from China. I think it is very likely that MOP will outsell, or hold steady with 1st 24hr Cata sales.
Xfire is just too much of a geek thing to be reliable. WOW players that know about xfire, are much more likely to know about GW2 than the average player.
Originally posted by Demandman Originally posted by Derros side note, Havent played WoW for a long time now, and dont plan to start up again.
Yeah even the real hardcore freaks I knew quit. (People that played even more than I did.)
It seems the development has went in a direction specifically to push away older/longterm players.
I would assume less than 10% use Xfire.
Most of WOW are super-casual Facebook mouthbreathers/soccer mom types so they won't have alot of "gaming" software lurking around taking tallies.
The developers are perfectly capable of breaking Xfire integration with the client intentionally to skew statistics or provide "Plausible deniability" as well.
Originally posted by FrodoFragins Very interesting but I'm afraid it won't stick. D3 only had a temporary affect on WOW and so some of the same will occur here. also, MoP will probably bring it back well above the 50k.
the subs of wow will fall even more once ppl play MoP and realize how bad it is.
I am neither a WoW or a GW2 fan, but how daft do you have to be to compare two games that are currently at the opposite ends of the development cycle? One is in its release week, after 6 years of waiting. The other has been winding down for several months in preparation for the next expac and is full of bored players.
What game do you think all those WoW players are playing right now? -_-
[quote]Originally posted by CrimsonSixWhat game do you think all those WoW players are playing right now? -_-[/b][/quote]
The "See how many blu-ray rips you can fit on your hard drive" MMOFPS.
Originally posted by kostoslav 64 client dont work with x-fire
psst, don´t tell them that. They need to think that WOW has died.
And again, I stand by my prediction that WOW will sell double in the first 24hrs (only in the west) that GW2 has sold up until that point.
WOW has already doubled since this thread started. GW2 just does not have legs. It is free, so the kids without credit cards can play it like runescape.
Originally posted by Azrile And again, I stand by my prediction that WOW will sell double in the first 24hrs (only in the west) that GW2 has sold up until that point. WOW has already doubled since this thread started. GW2 just does not have legs. It is free, so the kids without credit cards can play it like runescape.
since arenanet halted digital sales of GW2 it won't be a fair comparison.
WoW has 3-4 mil subs in the west and GW2 sold 1 mil pre purchase boxes.
this was 2 days before launch.
I bet once they open sales again, your prediction will look really foolish.
GW1 already sold almost 7 mil...
and about the kiddie stuff... wonder what some elite raiders from WoW did when they got into GW2?
a) use exploits to get gold
b) powerleveled to max level like idiots without realizing level means shit in GW2
the community on my server in GW2 is 1000% more helpful, friendly and grown like on any of the 2 WoW servers I used to play.
it's not even close by any means.
Arenanet simply bans assholes since they don't need their subs. Blizz keeps them around to "enrich" the community
WoW had 40-50.000 h on average before any xfire bugs.
GW2 has 70-90.000 h
so your argument is misleading.
Originally posted by mmojunkie5000 Originally posted by Azrile And again, I stand by my prediction that WOW will sell double in the first 24hrs (only in the west) that GW2 has sold up until that point. WOW has already doubled since this thread started. GW2 just does not have legs. It is free, so the kids without credit cards can play it like runescape.
That is their problem. So comparison is fair. But even if sales were not halted GW2 won't be able to match sales number of WOW and its expansions on release day.
MOP is going to shatter all the previous record for sales.
Originally posted by mmojunkie5000 Originally posted by kostoslav 64 client dont work with x-fire
Take another look at the topic's title. The topic is about WoW's drop on August 25th and he provides the reason. The other arguments used are (mostly) misleading because WoW's 64bit client not working with XFire is clearly the largest contributor to the drop.
Zorndorf back then (2006-2008) ( the rabid WoW fanboi who probably started the whole aggressive "xfire"-faux-math trashing on mmorpg.com, other WoW fanbois keept immitating over the years on top of him):
- "Be thankful there ARE tools like Xfire [...]"
- "So you have here all examples which show just how accurate number of players are demonstrated by Xfire."
- " [...] and show that the number on Xfire are rather very accurate to view player numbers"
Zorndorf now (last weeks)
"I just wanted to show that Xfire is not representative for PC game play at all."
"xfire attracts a very jumpy and hardcore player base, not representative for the PC market."
"Xfire is not a representative sample"
This **** is comedy gold ....
Originally posted by Azrile Xfire is not indicative of the average WOW player.
That's as foundationless as claims making links between X-Fire numbers and the number of subscribers.
Why do you care if GW2 sells more copies than MoP? I prefer GW2 but I expect MoP to sell at least a million more copies.
Originally posted by mmojunkie5000
you were making sweeping and laughable assumptions that are disproven not by xfire, but real released, official, hard, not to argue with NUMBERS:
gw2 NOW has had 400.000 concurrent users before the game even was accessible to preorders let alone retail.
WoW had 800k at its best days with massive cata hype behind it, millions buying the expansion and returning to the game
so, no. WoW's concurretn user numbers at this moment dwarves every other MMO, but not guild wars 2. and that's not just xfire talking
Hmmm, lets examine that for a second. GW2 had at a single point in time, during it's launch stage when the hype and ferver was at it's highest 400,000 concurrent users on their servers, what has the daily highest concurrent users been since that figure was released?
You say that in it's best day WoW had 800k concurrent users on it's servers at one point, but what has the highest concurrent user figure been since then?
If you can accurately answer both of those questions and the figures come out as you say then we can say for certain that GW2 is dwarfing WoW in concurrent users, can you do that?
As for X-fire, there is still a slight anomoly that every GW2 fan has failed to accept on this thread and others like it and that is that the X-fire client has not worked properly with WoW since the patch day so even if anyone did take those figures seriously, how can you throw around figures based on one of the games not even having it's hours read in a majority of cases?
GW2 saw a fall off of nearly 25% in playing hours towards the end of last week, does that mean that it is failing already, well of course it doesn't, it just means that people are getting into their normal playing pattern after the rush of launch play. Does a reduction of WoW subs mean that the amount of concurrent users has dropped by the same amount, maybe or maybe not, it depends on which players have dropped their subs as the casuals like myself will always play the same amount of time mainly in the evenings after work and at weekends so even if the subs dropped down to just under 1mill it is still possible to hit that concurrent number depending on the play times of those players (unlikely, but possible)
Threads like this one always end up being fanboy vs fanboy and never end well as they always just end up throwing random internet look up figures at each other without actually knowing the figures for sure and at the end of the day what does it matter? If you like WoW, play wow and if you don't, go and enjoy the game you do like and let the developers/publishers worry about the figures.
It must be Thursday, i never could get the hang of Thursdays.
Where did that 800k concurrent WOW players come from? I am not saying it is not true, but I have never seen Blizzard release a number like that. Not to be skeptical, but that seems very low considering they have been selling 3-4M boxes on the first day of the expansion. I would think about 8-16 hours after the launch of an expansion, there would be closer to 2M people playing. I mean what is the point of going out and buying a game and then not playing it.
Would like to see a link to that 800k number pls.
Guild Wars 2 is already a huge game, and literally -everyone- is playing it.
It is not surprising WoW is in free fall.
WoW is old news, and panda expansion for kids won't revive it.
GW2 is just an amazing game, and the best MMO out there by far. It kicks WoW's ass in every way.
Since I don't play WoW I can't answer this myself so I'm curious. People know you can go into Xfire and change what executable it is looking at for a game right? Have people done this, restarted Xfire, and it still isn't recognizing it? Because I think you can literally use any executable, even one this isn't WoW in any shape or form, and as long as the one it is looking at it running then it says you are playing the game.
It sounds like it is just that Xfire isn't looking at the 64 bit exe by default and people might just have to redirect Xfire to the correct client.
Originally posted by Greyhooff Guild Wars 2 is already a huge game, and literally -everyone- is playing it. It is not surprising WoW is in free fall. WoW is old news, and panda expansion for kids won't revive it. GW2 is just an amazing game, and the best MMO out there by far. It kicks WoW's ass in every way.
I'm too lazy to look at you post history to see if this is a real post or not so I thought I'd just ask directly. The "literally" followed by "everyone" makes me believe that it is a joking post since that literally isn't true. But with the internet it is hard to tell so I figured I'd ask.
For the record I don't care which game actually does better or has better Xfire numbers at all.
Originally posted by Sukiyaki This **** is comedy gold ....
I don't know what are your issues with WOW because you are a little over the top in hate for the game but if after 8 years WOW started to decline it is not something to feel great about. It is an old game now. The age is its worst enemy.
People say crazy stuff all the time and Xfire is mostly a tool used in forum PVP which changes sides on basis of what game you hate or like.
Originally posted by SnarlingWolf Originally posted by Greyhooff Guild Wars 2 is already a huge game, and literally -everyone- is playing it. It is not surprising WoW is in free fall. WoW is old news, and panda expansion for kids won't revive it. GW2 is just an amazing game, and the best MMO out there by far. It kicks WoW's ass in every way.
if you go by Xfire figures then you have to wonder where these players went to.. because GW2 has also seen a 30 percent fall off since its peak.. which if you treat xfire as being valid.. means that a third of gw2 players just dumped the game..
but only if you think xfire figures are in any way valid... can't have it both ways after all
Originally posted by MrNo Originally posted by mmojunkie5000 Originally posted by MrNo Originally posted by mmojunkie5000
Hey cool I can make a fake chart also and post on this thread but I have pride man.
Like i said I can fake a chart also so can the people at Xfire. If you choose to put down WoW pls dont do it on this forum it is called trolling.
hahahahaha... that's really a desperate reach... haha, pathetic.
"Happiness is not a destination. It is a method of life."-------------------------------
How much you are going to bet that MOP will break all the records and kick GW2 to curb in first day sale numbers as well as total sales? how much? book mark this topic and revisit it the day MOP releases.
And before you label me a WOW fanboy, i am a GW2 fan but even i know some things are just too obvious.