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What if GW2 isn't a huge success?

spookymiaspookymia PerthPosts: 57Member
If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?
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Comments

  • EberhardtEberhardt Killeen, TXPosts: 155Member
    Hard to say, only time will tell. No one here can predict the future or any alternate version of it.
  • SkuzSkuz WorcesterPosts: 1,034Member Uncommon
    I think that all MMOS are hitting below-expected targets as a direct result of the economic picture right now, it's not going away any time soon either, I think it just took longer to hit the Gaming market but it's here & making its presence felt right now.
  • spookymiaspookymia PerthPosts: 57Member
    I wasn't sure about the global economy argument because of the amount of initial interest these games generated. I thought it might be because people are now looking for something other than a progression through combat based MMO. I'm not sure what kind of MMO that would be though.
  • ValuaValua LiverpoolPosts: 520Member
    Originally posted by spookymia
    If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?

     

    I doubt we'll ever know if it was a huge success. They are not just relying on game sales (as most would believe) they are also relying on active players to buy from their cash shop.

     

    We won't hear nothing if it's doing badly, but we will hear things if it's doing great.

     

    Anyway, the game won't be a success in my eyes until after a year, and then it has to have a large amount of active players (1-5million.)

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer ChairPosts: 5,590Member Uncommon

    Does it really need to be?

    In terms of numbers, It' s had a very successful 1st week. Even with other games, since WoW, (SWTOR, Rift, TSW, AoC, etc etc) by this stage in the game, I don't think we had as much initial positive response. Really, that is the only metric available after initial box sales.

    The question is, how long with this sustain? Who knows?

  • Eir_SEir_S Argyle, NYPosts: 4,623Member
    If it isn't a huge success, other devs will still see a lot of the streamlined features in GW2 as good mechanics and incoprorate them into their games, so in reality, that's a success enough for me.  I think the game will be a success anyway.
  • SuprGamerXSuprGamerX Montreal, QCPosts: 531Member

     Why on earth is GW2 considered the mesiah of the  MMO industry?  Seriously it's getting annoying , just the fact that it got a NCSOFT logo slapped somewhere on it's cover box just down graded the game by a few dozen of points.  Eveyrone I know that pre ordered GW2 and played it , returned to either Aion or Tera and a few to Rift.    Again , GW1 was AMAZING back then , times have changed , and they could of done alot more with GW2 , and I really do hope for Anet's sake that they have alot in store that they haven't talked about yet. 

     ArcheAge will change the face of the MMO world in the fantasy departement , but unfortunately we won't be seeing it by 2014.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by Valua

    I doubt we'll ever know if it was a huge success. They are not just relying on game sales (as most would believe) they are also relying on active players to buy from their cash shop.

    ncsoft quarterly financials are public

    financially speaking, GW2 will be very visible how successful it is

     

    ncsofts 2nd quarter ending july 31, was reported recently and earnings were broken down by game

    the third quarter ending oct 31, will be reported early november

  • spookymiaspookymia PerthPosts: 57Member
    Originally posted by SuprGamerX

     Why on earth is GW2 considered the mesiah of the  MMO industry?  Seriously it's getting annoying , just the fact that it got a NCSOFT logo slapped somewhere on it's cover box just down graded the game by a few dozen of points.  Eveyrone I know that pre ordered GW2 and played it , returned to either Aion or Tera and a few to Rift.    Again , GW1 was AMAZING back then , times have changed , and they could of done alot more with GW2 , and I really do hope for Anet's sake that they have alot in store that they haven't talked about yet. 

     ArcheAge will change the face of the MMO world in the fantasy departement , but unfortunately we won't be seeing it by 2014.

    I guess because GW1 was such a huge success, it is expected...or at least hoped...that GW2 will have the same level of success and be the biggest MMO for a long time.

    I haven't checked out ArcheAge yet. How will it change the face of fantasy MMOs?

  • StanlyStankoStanlyStanko Stanksville, OHPosts: 269Member Common
    They'll get another shot when they release it on the next-gen console systems, as was their primary goal all along. They want to taste Skyrim numbers....THEY'RE RABID!
  • EllieAnneEllieAnne Seattle, WAPosts: 23Member
    GW2 has tried to move the MMO to the next level.  No monthly fees, dynamic character building, great graphics, established IP, complete story lines, etc.  Now other MMOs have done this before - like Rift and the three soul trees to build your character or the graphics in SWTOR - but I feel that people feel that it is GW2 that brings it all together.  So if GW2 fails, the gamemakers will start questioning if there in an inherent flaw in the entilre MMO design paradigm that cannot be fixed just with tweeking the present system.
  • redman875redman875 illinois, ILPosts: 230Member
    Originally posted by EllieAnne
    GW2 has tried to move the MMO to the next level.  No monthly fees, dynamic character building, great graphics, established IP, complete story lines, etc.  Now other MMOs have done this before - like Rift and the three soul trees to build your character or the graphics in SWTOR - but I feel that people feel that it is GW2 that brings it all together.  So if GW2 fails, the gamemakers will start questioning if there in an inherent flaw in the entilre MMO design paradigm that cannot be fixed just with tweeking the present system.

     

    I think that is quite a generalization.  No offense, and i know its taboo with a new release, but GW2 hasnt brought anything new to the table.  Yes it may have switched some stuf around, movving heals away froma dedicated role, expanded on the old DE system that dates back to anarchy online...but nothing new.

    Not saying its a bad game, but everything its done has been done before, and the games you mention and are comparing it to, at the same state of their life, were just as populair with people saying the same exact things about them...groundbreaking/next level ect.

    Its FAR too early to be making these broad generalizations as if we are talking about a 5 year old game with a still growing population.

     

    If GW2 isnt a huge success there will be another game just like it that promises the same exact things as every major release since 2008...which will have the same exact hype and the same exact moment of clarity when it comes down to earth.

     

    If you people havent noticed, its a cycle, a process that repeates itself, and someone is very good at marketing knows how to get gamers drooling every time no matter how similair it is by promising its unique and groundbreaking.

     

    Yes you ARE still playing EQ+DAOC with anarchy onlines instances (yes they started that)...and im not sure if their alien invasion was the first DE in mmorpg land but untill someone tells me otherwise ill consider that the pioneer game on that.

     

    Dont believe me?  Go onto the AoC/WAR/AION/RIFT/SWTOR forums, do a back search to launch...see the same predictions the same sensitive defense to critism or simply pointing out that expectations were too high.  You know where those games stand now but i feel as if every single person on this forum has amniesia regarding their launches.

     

     

    Anyway doesnt matter if it succeeds, you guys will still buy the next game that gets hyped.  They win.

  • GardavsshadeGardavsshade Cedar Springs, MIPosts: 766Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by redman875
    Originally posted by EllieAnne
    GW2 has tried to move the MMO to the next level.  No monthly fees, dynamic character building, great graphics, established IP, complete story lines, etc.  Now other MMOs have done this before - like Rift and the three soul trees to build your character or the graphics in SWTOR - but I feel that people feel that it is GW2 that brings it all together.  So if GW2 fails, the gamemakers will start questioning if there in an inherent flaw in the entilre MMO design paradigm that cannot be fixed just with tweeking the present system.

     

    I think that is quite a generalization.  No offense, and i know its taboo with a new release, but GW2 hasnt brought anything new to the table.  Yes it may have switched some stuf around, movving heals away froma dedicated role, expanded on the old DE system that dates back to anarchy online...but nothing new.

    Not saying its a bad game, but everything its done has been done before, and the games you mention and are comparing it to, at the same state of their life, were just as populair with people saying the same exact things about them...groundbreaking/next level ect.

    Its FAR too early to be making these broad generalizations as if we are talking about a 5 year old game with a still growing population.

     

    If GW2 isnt a huge success there will be another game just like it that promises the same exact things as every major release since 2008...which will have the same exact hype and the same exact moment of clarity when it comes down to earth.

     

    If you people havent noticed, its a cycle, a process that repeates itself, and someone is very good at marketing knows how to get gamers drooling every time no matter how similair it is by promising its unique and groundbreaking.

     

    Yes you ARE still playing EQ+DAOC with anarchy onlines instances (yes they started that)...and im not sure if their alien invasion was the first DE in mmorpg land but untill someone tells me otherwise ill consider that the pioneer game on that.

     

    Dont believe me?  Go onto the AoC/WAR/AION/RIFT/SWTOR forums, do a back search to launch...see the same predictions the same sensitive defense to critism or simply pointing out that expectations were too high.  You know where those games stand now but i feel as if every single person on this forum has amniesia regarding their launches.

     

     

    Anyway doesnt matter if it succeeds, you guys will still buy the next game that gets hyped.  They win.

    This needs a Sticky.

  • pierthpierth San Antonio, TXPosts: 1,503Member


    Originally posted by spookymia
    If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?

    If the only thing that was different about GW2 was the pricing structure then I'd agree that it could risk making B2P a failed endeavor (in the case it isn't a huge success) but GW2 pulls together aspects of several other MMOs so I'd say the industry will watch what aspects of the game are highly touted by fans and which ones the players overwhelmingly dislike. After that it just becomes a question of which game mechanics to copy and how to do it in a way that will bring maximum profit.

  • CalmOceansCalmOceans BergenPosts: 2,273Member
    Isn't GW2 a success? They don't use a subscription fee and charge for the game. Do they realy care all that much after they sold their game from a marketing standpoint...they already cashed in, for them it's a success.
  • TheocritusTheocritus Gary, INPosts: 3,754Member Uncommon
         Im not sure if Anet set any kind of target number that they need to reach for it to be a success......Its off to a great start already, and word of mouth should only continue its strong sales....The onyl thing I could see slowing it down would be if they go nuts and charge a monthly or something insane like that.
  • Eir_SEir_S Argyle, NYPosts: 4,623Member
    Originally posted by CalmOceans
    Isn't GW2 a success? They don't use a subscription fee and charge for the game. Do they realy care all that much after they sold their game from a marketing standpoint...they already cashed in, for them it's a success.

    It's a success.  I think what people mean by huge success is numbers like WoW.

  • GrixxittGrixxitt New Orleans, LAPosts: 543Member
    Originally posted by Gardavsshade
    Originally posted by redman875
    Originally posted by EllieAnne
    GW2 has tried to move the MMO to the next level.  No monthly fees, dynamic character building, great graphics, established IP, complete story lines, etc.  Now other MMOs have done this before - like Rift and the three soul trees to build your character or the graphics in SWTOR - but I feel that people feel that it is GW2 that brings it all together.  So if GW2 fails, the gamemakers will start questioning if there in an inherent flaw in the entilre MMO design paradigm that cannot be fixed just with tweeking the present system.

     

    I think that is quite a generalization.  No offense, and i know its taboo with a new release, but GW2 hasnt brought anything new to the table.  Yes it may have switched some stuf around, movving heals away froma dedicated role, expanded on the old DE system that dates back to anarchy online...but nothing new.

    Not saying its a bad game, but everything its done has been done before, and the games you mention and are comparing it to, at the same state of their life, were just as populair with people saying the same exact things about them...groundbreaking/next level ect.

    Its FAR too early to be making these broad generalizations as if we are talking about a 5 year old game with a still growing population.

     

    If GW2 isnt a huge success there will be another game just like it that promises the same exact things as every major release since 2008...which will have the same exact hype and the same exact moment of clarity when it comes down to earth.

     

    If you people havent noticed, its a cycle, a process that repeates itself, and someone is very good at marketing knows how to get gamers drooling every time no matter how similair it is by promising its unique and groundbreaking.

     

    Yes you ARE still playing EQ+DAOC with anarchy onlines instances (yes they started that)...and im not sure if their alien invasion was the first DE in mmorpg land but untill someone tells me otherwise ill consider that the pioneer game on that.

     

    Dont believe me?  Go onto the AoC/WAR/AION/RIFT/SWTOR forums, do a back search to launch...see the same predictions the same sensitive defense to critism or simply pointing out that expectations were too high.  You know where those games stand now but i feel as if every single person on this forum has amniesia regarding their launches.

     

     

    Anyway doesnt matter if it succeeds, you guys will still buy the next game that gets hyped.  They win.

    This needs a Sticky.

    Lolwut? 

    GW2 is taking things from games other than WoW and running with it. It truly doesn't matter which games it uses at this point, non-WoW = innovation (mis-using the term on purpose here but it applies, given the crap we've had to look at the last 12 years)

     

     

    Also, in case noone hasn't noticed yet, box sales = success.

    GW2 was a success based on preorders alone. The fact that its fun, or not, has absolutely nothing to do with it

    The above is my personal opinion. Anyone displaying a view contrary to my opinion is obviously WRONG and should STHU. (neener neener)

    -The MMO Forum Community

  • kaiser3282kaiser3282 Phoenix, AZPosts: 2,660Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by redman875
    Originally posted by EllieAnne
    GW2 has tried to move the MMO to the next level.  No monthly fees, dynamic character building, great graphics, established IP, complete story lines, etc.  Now other MMOs have done this before - like Rift and the three soul trees to build your character or the graphics in SWTOR - but I feel that people feel that it is GW2 that brings it all together.  So if GW2 fails, the gamemakers will start questioning if there in an inherent flaw in the entilre MMO design paradigm that cannot be fixed just with tweeking the present system.

     

    I think that is quite a generalization.  No offense, and i know its taboo with a new release, but GW2 hasnt brought anything new to the table.  Yes it may have switched some stuf around, movving heals away froma dedicated role, expanded on the old DE system that dates back to anarchy online...but nothing new.

    Not saying its a bad game, but everything its done has been done before, and the games you mention and are comparing it to, at the same state of their life, were just as populair with people saying the same exact things about them...groundbreaking/next level ect.

    Its FAR too early to be making these broad generalizations as if we are talking about a 5 year old game with a still growing population.

     

    If GW2 isnt a huge success there will be another game just like it that promises the same exact things as every major release since 2008...which will have the same exact hype and the same exact moment of clarity when it comes down to earth.

     

    If you people havent noticed, its a cycle, a process that repeates itself, and someone is very good at marketing knows how to get gamers drooling every time no matter how similair it is by promising its unique and groundbreaking.

     

    Yes you ARE still playing EQ+DAOC with anarchy onlines instances (yes they started that)...and im not sure if their alien invasion was the first DE in mmorpg land but untill someone tells me otherwise ill consider that the pioneer game on that.

     

    Dont believe me?  Go onto the AoC/WAR/AION/RIFT/SWTOR forums, do a back search to launch...see the same predictions the same sensitive defense to critism or simply pointing out that expectations were too high.  You know where those games stand now but i feel as if every single person on this forum has amniesia regarding their launches.

     

     

    Anyway doesnt matter if it succeeds, you guys will still buy the next game that gets hyped.  They win.

    Theres 3 big differences with GW2 vs those other games.

    1) Most of those games had 1 or 2 key features that were supposed to be special / newish, or a break from the norm. They wound up focusing so much on those 1 or 2 things that much of the rest of the game was pretty terrible. GW2 has more than that, but manages to balance them in quality / focus fairly well without having just 1 appealling thing and the rest being worthless

    2) Not just the number, but the way they have taken those 1 or 2 things that were the main focus of those games and the only real draw to them, and compiled them in 1 nicer package and provided a world for different types of players to all come together. In comparison, you had things like WAR which was only a draw to the PvP crowd after launch because of atrocious PvE and lots of other issues.

    3) Theyre actually delivering on what they promised. as far as what content and features are there. Using WAR as an example again...

    Promise - 6 capital cities, 2 for each racial pairing. This was claimed since pre-beta and they continued to claim it for over a year afte rlaunch

    Reality - We only ever saw 2 cities even touch the game in any form

    Promise - Large scale PvP Fortress battles

    Reality - More than a few dozen people at a fortress was crashing entire servers. Once they finally stopped the crashing, it still wasnt worth doing because the lag was so horrid you could barely do anything. End result - Fortresses completely removed from the game within approx 1 year.

    Add to that the massive list of known bugs that still exist 3 years later and the inability to balance classes whatsoever, and they just failed in many ways.

     

  • spookymiaspookymia PerthPosts: 57Member

    It would be nice to know how many $$$ it took to build and what profit ANet expect to generate. I guess what I'm asking is what happens if they fall significantly short of their predicitions?

    It's a very nice game, has a lot of quality and a level of detail I have never encountered in an MMO, but to me it is not game that has tried to change the formula as much as a game like TSW. Personally I think TSW is a better attempt at breaking the mould and I prefer the systems (skills / abilities / crafting / combat and progression), so I was shocked to see how few boxes it shifted.

    I'm sure GW2 will be profitable, but as far as meeting ANet's expectations I'm not so sure. I really hope it makes millions of $$$ anyway because I want NCSoft to build City of Heroes 2. :)

  • CastillleCastillle KhobarPosts: 2,703Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by spookymia
    If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?

    The target is 3.2 million by the end of 2012.  Do you think it can reach those numbers? o.o

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  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,028Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by spookymia
    If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?

    Well, with Wows bleeding subs the genre do need something new and large or chanses are that we will get stuck with Chinese F2P games so it would be best for the genre if GW2 or something else western becomes big.

    And if GW2 fails all out hope would be to ESO and maybe Class 4.

  • coretex666coretex666 PraguePosts: 1,934Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Loke666
    Originally posted by spookymia
    If a subscription game with such a huge IP as SWTOR cannot meet it's predicted subscriber amount, and subscription games of the quality of Rift, TERA and the TSW can't meet their targets, GW2 being a B2P game and of the quality it is, is surely expected to meet it's targets. But what if it doesn't? Will that change the MMO industry?

    Well, with Wows bleeding subs the genre do need something new and large or chanses are that we will get stuck with Chinese F2P games so it would be best for the genre if GW2 or something else western becomes big.

    And if GW2 fails all out hope would be to ESO and maybe Class 4.

    I would not forget that Blizzard is cooking a new MMO about which they claim that its lifecycle may be 15-20 years long.

    Until I see this one fail, I will not lose hope in western MMOs.

    Waiting for L2 EU Classic

  • VagabandanaVagabandana OkinawaPosts: 16Member
    Originally posted by spookymia
     But what if it doesn't? 

    1)Life will go on.

    2) Producers will stick to winning formulas, with small changes to be "different"

  • MMOwandererMMOwanderer LisbonPosts: 415Member
    Originally posted by CalmOceans
    Isn't GW2 a success? They don't use a subscription fee and charge for the game. Do they realy care all that much after they sold their game from a marketing standpoint...they already cashed in, for them it's a success.

    By that logic, games like WAR and AOC where huge sucesses right in the first month.

    BTW, why did the OP meantion Rift as not meeting it's targets? Rift sold more than 1 million boxes and while the game's playerbase as died alot, obviously, the game gets update faster than any other and is now geting an expansion pack. Not to meantion Trion's starting on 2 other games.

    I'd call that a sucess, IMO. Don't know about TERA, but, are they even doing that badly? How's the finance report?

    Only SWTOR and TSW failed to meet their targets.

    If GW2 fails, TESO will come next, and after that, the next game, and the one after that, and so on.

     

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