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If Guild Wars 2 sold 2 million copies by the end of the year, and even half those players remained active, I think that represents a huge success. 1 million active players after the first year is pretty huge considering the competition.
It's not like this is a huge franchise.I believe GW1 sold around 7 million copies across it's whole life span, including x-packs which were counted as full games.
I support Anet, and love what I've played of this game, but come on now. 15 million?
Originally posted by Dracill Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes? Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.
WoW sold less than 1 million copies in six months, 500k tops I believe. I'm afraid WoW is a failure since it didnt sell no where near 12 mil in six months, lol.
Most memorable games: AoC(Tryanny PvP), RIFT, GW, GW2, Ragnarok Online, Aion, FFXI, FFXIV, Secret World, League of Legends (Silver II rank)
WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players.
So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market. Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from. We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark.
I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic):
1 Million from U.S.
1.3 Million from Europe
..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia
Originally posted by Mykai I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year. Here is my guess: 1st Month: 5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases) 1st Year: 15 Million Copies These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release. Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.
It's already Amazon's best selling game.
"The problem with quotes from the Internet is that it's almost impossible to validate their authenticity." - Abraham Lincoln
Who cares about box sales? Look at D3 , 50 million box sales and no one is playing anymore?
Only thing that needs to concern GW2 is the ammount of players still active after the 1st month. They can sale 2 billion copies of GW2 if they wanted , but if after the 1st month only 3K are remaining , then the game failed miserably.
Originally posted by Atibra WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players. So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market. Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from. We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark. I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic): 1 Million from U.S. 1.3 Million from Europe ..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia
I would say that within its first year (Aug 2013) these will be the GW2 numbers:
1.5 - 2 million in NA
2.5 - 3 million in EU
500k - 1 million worldwide playing in either NA or EU servers
If I'm not mistaken, I don't think GW2 is currently available in Asia (including Korea). Eventually GW2 will be available in Asia which I think will sky rocket their numbers.
GW2 launch is available to asian territories; I have a Hong Kong friend that prepurchased
the rest of the world, beyond EU, is NA by default for region
List of NA-region countries:
American SamoaAnguillaAntarcticaAntigua and BarbudaArgentiaArubaAustraliaBahamasBangladeshBarbadosBelizeBermudaBhutanBoliviaBouvet IslandBrazilBritish Indian Ocean TerritoryBrunei DarussalamCambodiaCanadaCayman IslandsChileChinaColumbiaCook IslandsCosta RicaCubaDominicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorFalkland IslandsFijiGranadaGuamGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHeard Islands and McDonald IslandsHondurasHong KongIndiaIndonesiaJamaicaJapanKirabatiKorea, NorthKorea, SouthLaosMacaoMalaysiaMaldivesMarshall IslandsMexicoMicronesia, Federated States ofMongoliaMontserratMyanmarNauruNepalNetherlands AntillesNew ZealandNicaraguaNiueNorfolk IslandNorthern Mariana IslandsPalauPanamaPapua New GuineaParaguayPeruPhilippinesPuerto RicoSaint LuciaSaint Kitts and NevisSamoaSao Tome and PrincipeSingaporeSolomon IslandsSri LankaSurinameTahitiTaiwanThailandTokelauTongaTrinidad and TobagoTurks and Caicos IslandsTuvaluU.S. Minor Outlying IslandsUnited States of AmericaUruguayVanuatuVenezuelaVietnamVirgin Islands, BritishVirgin Islands, US
Kickstarter: Stuff I'm supporting
2 million release sales.
500K for the first year afterwards.
1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)
2nd month: 12 copies
1m in 4 weeks, 2.9m by dec. 31, 4.4m in the first full year of release.
One million billion copies (for a first month)
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2Waiting for: Pathfinder Online
The hard thing to account for is digital sales. I think the majority of people are now purchasing their games from download services rather then Hard Box copies. When ever they report sales and data they often only include hard copy data instead of both hard and digital.
I imagine that with what I have been hearing in the other games I play that this game will have 2 million presale or prepurchase WW. Then probably get to around 5 million at end of year one. Once this game is released to the Asian market perhaps another 5 million copies.
nevermind, I should wake up in the morning before posting
The reddit page shows about 1.7m copies ordered on the gw2.com website if you compare the order numbers in August vs the ones from April.
Originally posted by Baddogbill Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by William12 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l
i wonder about the 1 million preorders too
ANET never gave a press release saying that; an analyst said that
heres what ANET said this week
Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.
Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders
I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality. GW2 will be a niche PVP game. It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.
This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles. Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.
Originally posted by William12 Originally posted by Baddogbill Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by William12 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l
A niche PvP game? What makes you think that? Almost every aspect of it's PvE experience is significantly better than any other MMO.
Unless of course you are trolling but if you aren't then I would really like to see what you think it's a niche game.
Originally posted by Zezda Originally posted by William12 Originally posted by Baddogbill Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by William12 Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l
The 1-80 is gonna be fun, but once you get to 80 what now ? How many people do you think find farming cosmetic items fun ? I hate item grinds as much as the next person, but GW2 replaces it with nothing there is no incentive to keep playing. Will it be fun ? Sure for alittle bit, but like any game it will get boring and old fast. During beta I found the PVE experience no better then any other PVE game at all the combat is fun, but the quest system is just the same as any other game except with big hearts and moved around the zone its different but not different if you know what I mean. Like I said though I had fun in beta and will play it at launch, but I don't expect the game to hold my interest for very long.
Now why do I think this is gonna be a niche game with a sustainable playerbase of 250-500k at best ? MOST people are PVE players and I do not believe GW2 did PVE right at all. The PVP on the other hand is done right and most PVPers will find it fun especially WvWvW even though the big battles were just a zerg fest. I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't believe millions will find the PVE fun for more then a month.
Here's the thing GW2 is trying to reinvent a wheel that has worked for 13 + years. The bait and hook in item grinds and character progression end game. The problem is GW2 has no end game it has no incentive to keep playing once you get bored. While I HATE item grinds theres an incentive in them you invest x amount of time to make your character x times better. In GW2 there is no such thing so I ask what will keep the millions that people think will be playing this game to keep playing it ? Don't say fun because everyone gets bored and moves on the difference is in other MMOs when you get bored there's still something to achieve something to work toward. People cannot say that concept is broken or does not work. maybe it doesn't work for them anymore, but millions still play MMOs with that very thing EQ ,EQ2, WOW, Rift etc all of these games are succesful with this very concept. I personally believe the vocal minority drove GW2 to become what it is not the majority.
Originally posted by Misaris 1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases) 2nd month: 12 copies
Must be nice to live on your planet lots of clouds and cookoos ?
2M the first month... I am also better that MOP will sell more in its´ first day then GW2 sells up until that point.
As much as people talk about all of WOW´s subscriber being from Asia, it is funny how they sell 4.7 boxes in the first day (only in the west).
It will be hard to judge if GW2 is successful after launch though. A subscription demands enjoyment, a non-subscription game demands just to overcome your boredom at the moment.
After all the good points made previously in this thread, I think I'd probably revise my estimates to:
1st Month: 4 Million
1st Year: 10 Million
However, I don't think I'll edit the original post because hope springs eternal. C'mon GW2! I need you to break some serious records here!