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GW2 Sales Estimates - 1st Month / 1st Year

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Comments

  • MeleagarMeleagar Nunyadambidness, TXPosts: 407Member
    Currently, GW2 is the #1, 3, 4, & 6 most popular PC game on Amazon (different versions), with MoP #2, and TSW #5. If that's any indication, I'd say it's going to do pretty good.
  • Size-TwelveSize-Twelve Lansing, MIPosts: 494Member

    If Guild Wars 2 sold 2 million copies by the end of the year, and even half those players remained active, I think that represents a huge success. 1 million active players after the first year is pretty huge considering the competition.

    It's not like this is a huge franchise.I believe GW1 sold around 7 million copies across it's whole life span, including x-packs which were counted as full games.

    I support Anet, and love what I've played of this game, but come on now. 15 million?

  • KuinnKuinn MestaPosts: 2,093Member
    Originally posted by Dracill
    Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

    Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

     

    WoW sold less than 1 million copies in six months, 500k tops I believe. I'm afraid WoW is a failure since it didnt sell no where near 12 mil in six months, lol.

  • KuppaKuppa Boulder, COPosts: 3,292Member Uncommon
    I believe they will have around 1.2 million sales in the first month. Probably around 1.7 in the first year.

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  • gessekai332gessekai332 New York City, NYPosts: 877Member Common
    2 mil at first month is a safe and conservative bet.

    Most memorable games: AoC(Tryanny PvP), RIFT, GW, GW2, Ragnarok Online, Aion, FFXI, FFXIV, Secret World, League of Legends (Silver II rank)

  • AtibraAtibra Seattle, WAPosts: 65Member

    WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players.

     

    So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market.  Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from.  We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark.

     

    I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic):

    1 Million from U.S.

    1.3 Million from Europe

    ..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia

     

  • SovrathSovrath Boston Area, MAPosts: 18,457Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Mykai

    I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

     

    1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

    1st Year:  15 Million Copies

     

    These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

    probably not.

  • MorvMorv Royal Oak, MIPosts: 331Member
    We need a poll.
  • Arathir86Arathir86 CanberraPosts: 442Member Uncommon

    It's already Amazon's best selling game.

    "The problem with quotes from the Internet is that it's almost impossible to validate their authenticity." - Abraham Lincoln

  • SuprGamerXSuprGamerX Montreal, QCPosts: 531Member

     Who cares about box sales?  Look at D3 , 50 million box sales and no one is playing anymore?   

    Only thing that needs to concern GW2 is the ammount of players still active after the 1st month. They can sale 2 billion copies of GW2 if they wanted , but if after the 1st month only 3K are remaining , then the game failed miserably.

  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by Atibra

    WoW, at it's PEAK had about 2.5 Mil U.S. Players, 3.5 Mil EU Players and 6 Mil Asia Players.

    So - anyone predicting 5 mil is incredibly off, as you're assuming GW2 at launch will capture pretty much the majority of the MMO market.  Also, GW2 is not launching in China - where the majority of the 6 Mil Asia Players came from.  We may see a number of Korean players adopt the game, but nowhere near the 6 mil mark.

    I'd guess the population spread to be closer to (and this is being very optimistic):

    1 Million from U.S.

    1.3 Million from Europe

    ..and MAYBE, if the Korean players pick it up, you'll see approx. 1 Mil from Asia

    I would say that within its first year (Aug 2013) these will be the GW2 numbers:

    1.5 - 2 million in NA

    2.5 - 3 million in EU

    500k - 1 million worldwide playing in either NA or EU servers

    If I'm not mistaken, I don't think GW2 is currently available in Asia (including Korea). Eventually GW2 will be available in Asia which I think will sky rocket their numbers.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common

    GW2 launch is available to asian territories; I have a Hong Kong friend that prepurchased

     

    the rest of the world, beyond EU, is NA by default for region

    http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/42726-pre-purchase-issue-and-region-restrictions/

    List of NA-region countries:


    American Samoa
    Anguilla
    Antarctica
    Antigua and Barbuda
    Argentia
    Aruba
    Australia
    Bahamas
    Bangladesh
    Barbados
    Belize
    Bermuda
    Bhutan
    Bolivia
    Bouvet Island
    Brazil
    British Indian Ocean Territory
    Brunei Darussalam
    Cambodia
    Canada
    Cayman Islands
    Chile
    China
    Columbia
    Cook Islands
    Costa Rica
    Cuba
    Dominica
    Dominican Republic
    Ecuador
    El Salvador
    Falkland Islands
    Fiji
    Granada
    Guam
    Guatemala
    Guyana
    Haiti
    Heard Islands and McDonald Islands
    Honduras
    Hong Kong
    India
    Indonesia
    Jamaica
    Japan
    Kirabati
    Korea, North
    Korea, South
    Laos
    Macao
    Malaysia
    Maldives
    Marshall Islands
    Mexico
    Micronesia, Federated States of
    Mongolia
    Montserrat
    Myanmar
    Nauru
    Nepal
    Netherlands Antilles
    New Zealand
    Nicaragua
    Niue
    Norfolk Island
    Northern Mariana Islands
    Palau
    Panama
    Papua New Guinea
    Paraguay
    Peru
    Philippines
    Puerto Rico
    Saint Lucia
    Saint Kitts and Nevis
    Samoa
    Sao Tome and Principe
    Singapore
    Solomon Islands
    Sri Lanka
    Suriname
    Tahiti
    Taiwan
    Thailand
    Tokelau
    Tonga
    Trinidad and Tobago
    Turks and Caicos Islands
    Tuvalu
    U.S. Minor Outlying Islands
    United States of America
    Uruguay
    Vanuatu
    Venezuela
    Vietnam
    Virgin Islands, British
    Virgin Islands, US

     

     

  • ThorbrandThorbrand West Palm Beach, FLPosts: 1,198Member

    2 million release sales.

    500K for the first year afterwards.

  • Zeus.CMZeus.CM ZagrebPosts: 1,788Member
  • MisarisMisaris Cougartown, NEPosts: 140Member

    1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

    2nd month: 12 copies

  • BlueLanternBlueLantern hempstead, NYPosts: 96Member

    1m in 4 weeks, 2.9m by dec. 31, 4.4m in the first full year of release.

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  • dzoni87dzoni87 BelgradePosts: 541Member

    One million billion copies (for a first month) :D

    Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2
    Waiting for: Pathfinder Online

  • Sloane66Sloane66 palmyra, NJPosts: 11Member

    The hard thing to account for is digital sales. I think the majority of people are now purchasing their games from download services rather then Hard Box copies. When ever they report sales and data they often only include hard copy data instead of both hard and digital.

     

    I imagine that with what I have been hearing in the other games I play that this game will have 2 million presale or prepurchase WW. Then probably get to around 5 million at end of year one. Once this game is released to the Asian market perhaps another 5 million copies.

  • ZezdaZezda Posts: 685Member Uncommon

    [edit]

    nevermind, I should wake up in the morning before posting :D

    The reddit page shows about 1.7m copies ordered on the gw2.com website if you compare the order numbers in August vs the ones from April.

  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member
    Originally posted by Baddogbill
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

    Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

    I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

     

    This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

  • ZezdaZezda Posts: 685Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by William12
    Originally posted by Baddogbill
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

    Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

    I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

     

    This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

    A niche PvP game? What makes you think that? Almost every aspect of it's PvE experience is significantly better than any other MMO.

    Unless of course you are trolling but if you aren't then I would really like to see what you think it's a niche game.

  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member
    Originally posted by Zezda
    Originally posted by William12
    Originally posted by Baddogbill
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

    Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

    I wouldn't doubt a million preorders between NA/EU, but people thinking 4-5 times that in the 1st month need to come back to reality.  GW2 will be a niche PVP game.   It doesn't offer everyone something they want or even try to it is targeting a specific audience and the ones who think GW2 will even sustain millions are nuts.   

     

    This is not a gw2 hate post I liked the game and will play it, but I'm realitsic and know that for me and many others like me farming cosmetic items wont do it in pve and the PVP is fun but it wont last just like anything in life its gonna get boring throw in the WvWvW where most of it is a zerg fest unless you find a good group and go out on your own away from the main battles.   Simply put I know going into this that the game won't hold me for long until more content is released and I'm fine with that.

    A niche PvP game? What makes you think that? Almost every aspect of it's PvE experience is significantly better than any other MMO.

    Unless of course you are trolling but if you aren't then I would really like to see what you think it's a niche game.

     

    The 1-80 is gonna be fun, but once you get to 80 what now ?   How many people do you think find farming cosmetic items fun ?  I hate item grinds as much as the next person, but GW2 replaces it with nothing there is no incentive to keep playing. Will it be fun ? Sure for alittle bit, but like any game it will get boring and old fast.  During beta I found the PVE experience no better then any other PVE game at all the combat is fun, but the quest system is just the same as any other game except with big hearts and moved around the zone its different but not different if you know what I mean.   Like I said though I had fun in beta and will play it at launch, but I don't expect the game to hold my interest for very long.   

    Now why do I think this is gonna be a niche game with a sustainable playerbase of 250-500k at best ?  MOST people are PVE players and I do not believe GW2 did PVE right at all.  The PVP on the other hand is done right and most PVPers will find it fun especially WvWvW even though the big battles were just a zerg fest.   I'll believe it when I see it, but I don't believe millions will find the PVE fun for more then a month.

     

    Here's the thing GW2 is trying to reinvent a wheel that has worked for 13 + years.  The bait and hook in item grinds and character progression end game.  The problem is GW2 has no end game it has no incentive to keep playing once you get bored.   While I HATE item grinds theres an incentive in them you invest x amount of time to make your character x times better.  In GW2 there is no such thing so I ask what will keep the millions that people think will be playing this game to keep playing it  ?   Don't say fun because everyone gets bored and moves on the difference is in other MMOs when you get bored there's still something to achieve something to work toward.  People cannot say that concept is broken or does not work.  maybe it doesn't work for them anymore, but millions still play MMOs with that very thing EQ ,EQ2, WOW, Rift etc all of these games are succesful with this very concept.  I personally believe the vocal minority drove GW2 to become what it is not the majority.

  • roo67roo67 londonPosts: 402Member
    Originally posted by Misaris

    1st Month: 1 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

    2nd month: 12 copies

    Must be nice to live on your planet lots of clouds and cookoos ? 

  • AzrileAzrile Houston, MDPosts: 2,582Member
    Originally posted by Mykai

    I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

     

    1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

    1st Year:  15 Million Copies

     

    These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

    2M the first month...   I am also better that MOP will sell more in its´ first day then GW2 sells up until that point.

    As much as people talk about all of WOW´s subscriber being from Asia, it is funny how they sell 4.7 boxes in the first day (only in the west).

    It will be hard to judge if GW2 is successful after launch though.  A subscription demands enjoyment, a non-subscription game demands just to overcome your boredom at the moment.

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member

    After all the good points made previously in this thread, I think I'd probably revise my estimates to:

     

    1st Month:  4 Million

    1st Year:    10 Million

     

    However, I don't think I'll edit the original post because hope springs eternal.  C'mon GW2!  I need you to break some serious records here!

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