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1st month = ~2 mil.
after 12 months = ~3 mil.
my review of GW2
First month? 3 million
Twelve months? 5.5 million
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
1st day - over 1.45 million
1st month - over 2 million
1st year - over 4-6 million
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Hmm it can go a few ways.
1st scenerio , 1 million prepurchases already - lots of WoW players and other mmo playres buy it on release day and GW2 may hit 2 or 3 million mark within a few days.4.5 million players before 2013
2nd scenerio 1 million prepurchases already maybe 1 million other players buy it on release day and we hit 2 million.3 million players before 2013
3trd scenerio 1 million player at launch and a few hunred thousand players join from now till christmass.2 million players before 2013
I tend to bet on Scenerio 1 or 2 or something in between those.
But i woulnt amaze me if they sell 6 million copy's before the end of 2012.Alot of mmo players are aiming a switch from other mmo's.
If WoW's playerbase (many of witch are going to try GW2) they can realy end up with retarded box sales.
Originally posted by Mykai I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year. Here is my guess: 1st Month: 5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases) 1st Year: 15 Million Copies These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release. Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.
I see 1.3 million box sales the first month and 3 million by the end of the year. From there I can only guess but I would wager it plateauing off around 4-6 million sales over the course of the life of the game.
Where do I get my numbers? Well the 1 million is already known and it isnt unreasonable to think that word of mouth will get them another 300k that first month. The 3 million comes from several industry insiders, most notably an Asian company, and not to sound too racist but if theres one things those Asians know, its numbers.
Disclaimer: the last sentence was all in jest and good fun and not to be taken as me being insensitive.
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Always a bad idea trying to predict things, but it's a bit o fun so....
The NCSoft guys said expected 3.1 million around launch - I don't have any reason to disagree with him - he knows more about it than I do after all.
So let's say 3 million in the first 3-month shakedown period.
After that with the one caveat that players regard the game as having longevity I would predict a fast rise in numbers as Guild migrations kick in from other MMO's.
So let's say 6 million by Q3 2013.
After that - I would expect numbers to go up steadily if the game is well supported and expansions come out at a decent pace.
I would say the game will cap at ~8 million based on this. Purely speculating I would say it may rise above this, but it depends so very much of the games staying power, and this is not known.
If you think these numbers are too high - look no further than the global financial crash and the lack of money in people's pockets before judging that monthly sub-games will be preferred in the numbers they are now. I think the ANet financial model is as well-positioned as their design philosophy (albeit in this case accidentally) and it will increase their success.
Additionally - and this cannot be stressed enough - the gaming population is getting older on average and has increasing levels of intolerance to time-sink game design. This makes GW2 golden in their eyes.
Just my two pennies on the subject....
I'd be surprised if the total sales/preorders to date is less than 1 million but for all we know it could be pushing 2 million by now. It's not authoritative but to be in the amazon position they are and have been in for a couple to three months, and tellingly above MOP..
Yeah MOP is a month away but GW2 went on sale months ago and instantly took top positions on multiple stores worldwide.
A good estimate about the copies sold through the official site by August 17th:
By the end of the first year... eh, who knows. Perhaps around 4.5 millions.
2 million within the first month including pre-order.
End of the first year, less than 100,000 subscribers.
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Originally posted by Wickedjelly First month? 3 million Twelve months? 5.5 million
Yep, something along those lines.
If in 1982 we played with the current mentality, we would have burned down all the pac man games since the red ghost was clearly OP. Instead we just got better at the game.
1st month 2-3 million
1st year 4-7 Million
What happens when you log off your characters????.....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMkDark Age of Camelot
Originally posted by gieger808 We'll see big box number sales, but low average population. Bad game? No. No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off. It's fun and actiony, but not the kind of mmorpg you would call home. It can be played off and on due to the lack of gear progression. You can't get "behind" like in other mmorpgs. It's a good thing. It's fun and doesn't require any real commitment.
There is a big flaw in this kind of thinking. If what you say was true people wouldn't leave Rift, SWTOR and all those other mmos with big progression.
1st month: 1.5-2 mil.
1st year.. maybe 3kk-4kk?
Originally posted by bcbully 1.7 mill at launch. Swtor was 2.4 and is still more well known.
Huh? I thought 1.7mil was the confirmed number after 1 month for TOR? Did I miss another press release?
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Originally posted by Amjoco I would like to believe your guesstimates, but that is way to high. I would say 2.5 and 4.0 million
I can believe that, yes. OPs guesses just dont seems realistic.
My guess for total sales is twice that of GW1: 7 million accounts about 16 million boxes with expansions and campaigns but that is for the entire games lifetime.
The game is a lot more hyped and have a whole lot of better budget than the first game so tice the number of boxes sold does not seems too far off.
Originally posted by Naqaj Originally posted by bcbully 1.7 mill at launch. Swtor was 2.4 and is still more well known.
They say 2.4 boxes were sold in that first month.
Kind of hard to predict sales but I will bite hope someone revives this thread when the year is up.
First month 2 to 3 mill copies
First year I would say 6-7+ depends on how well launch does and how many keep playing how many migrate from other MMO's and how well ArenaNet ban gold farmers if they actively ban people then sales will go up.
Good gawd have mercy bro!
If it sold that many in the first month nobody would be able to log in!
Im going to go conservative and say 2 to 3 million the first month and 7 million and growing fast by a year..
Originally posted by gieger808 No sub fee, so most will use it as a second game. Once the shine wears off.
Someone still thinks this way? That the sub model is which determines if someone plays a game primarily or not? Any gamer will play the game they find most fun, I personally dont care about sub fee or no sub fee, I play what is good.
To me no sub fee, and no gear grind, are both things that will actually make this game more primary game than any other mmorpg I've played to date, not the other way around. One of the biggest problems in WoW to me was that I didnt have enough spare time or will to grind gear on all fronts to stay competitive, and that's when the game becomes just a chatroom with friends. Also, sub fee prevents me from checking back on games after updates etc, since I definately wont pay 15€ everytime I just want to check in, that's not a problem in sub-less games.
I miss DAoC