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GW2 Sales Estimates - 1st Month / 1st Year

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Comments

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member
    Originally posted by William12
    rofl is this a troll post ?  Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now let alone that many after 30 days.   I fully expect it to sell 3-4m in the first year though.  You guys need to adjust your expectations the game will not sustain the playerbase over time but thats ok because its b2p.

     

    Prepare to be shocked:  http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2012/07/134_115061.html

     

    1 million pre-orders as of July 13th.  Since then it's been a best seller on Amazon.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

    It depends on where "hundreds of thousands" turns into "millions" i guess.  I would say "millions" starts at 2 million+.

  • nephren25nephren25 warsaw, MOPosts: 158Member

    i dont think it will have wow numbers just because wow can run on a out of the box walmart computer. where as gw2 needs a decent computer to run it.
    im gunna be playing it full time there is just so much stuff to do in it. plus you need 100 skill points for some items so thats lvl 180 haha. your not gunna do that in first month im sure

    Click sig to visit our website image

  • VorchVorch Somewhere, FLPosts: 800Member

    Conservative Estimates:

     

    1.5-2 mil first month

    4-5 mil first year

     

    FYI, saw this thread on GW2G

    "As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days— those are now the only two states you’ll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2

  • Bad.dogBad.dog Belleville, ONPosts: 1,108Member
    Originally posted by Nadia
    Originally posted by William12
     Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now l

    i wonder about the 1 million preorders too

    ANET never gave a press release saying that;  an analyst said that

     

    heres what ANET said this week

    http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html

    Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.

    Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders

  • DracillDracill Miami, FLPosts: 158Member
    Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

    Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.
  • Creslin321Creslin321 Baltimore, MDPosts: 5,359Member

    1st month:  2.1 million

    1st year:  4 million

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • Creslin321Creslin321 Baltimore, MDPosts: 5,359Member
    Originally posted by Dracill
    Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

    Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

    LOL, in that case...GW2 definitely fails.  I don't think WoW even sold 12 million copies in the west...maybe not in the world.

    Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member
    Originally posted by Vorch

    Conservative Estimates:

     

    1.5-2 mil first month

    4-5 mil first year

     

    FYI, saw this thread on GW2G

    Ya, I originally posted it there, but then decided to post here instead since mmorpg.com tends to get more activity.  I want to get an idea of what current expectations are and to do so requires a lot of guessers;-)

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member
    Originally posted by Dracill
    Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

    Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

     

    Lol, I guess I'm not the most optimistic person in this thread anymore...

  • SlampigSlampig Chantilly, VAPosts: 2,376Member Uncommon

    I am thinking in the first month it will be eleventy-bajillion.

    After the first year, we will all be pod people...

    That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!

  • ajayazirajayazir RC, BCPosts: 108Member

    China 28391829381908312839021839138190138193  sales.

    Korea 28391829381908312839021839138190138194 sales + Kimchi sales.

    NA                                                                             5,000,000 sales. Just saying ;D

  • lotapartylotaparty taxila canttPosts: 514Member
    Originally posted by Mykai

    I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year.  Here is my guess:

     

    1st Month:  5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)

    1st Year:  15 Million Copies

     

    These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release.  Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.

    i would guess it to be 2.3 million in first month and 5 million after first year .

    image

  • fiontarfiontar Dana, MAPosts: 3,719Member
    Originally posted by Dracill
    Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?

    Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.

    There is a certain ceiling for intial MMO sales. GW2 has many things going for it to raise that ceiling, but so did TOR. The difference here is that GW2 will, IMO, have the best retention rates since WoW and will also be one of those very rare MMOs that grows it's sales and active populations over time.

    I think GW2 will easily take it's first month sales and double them over the following eleven months. If the rate and quality of expansions is there, then it will be a game that will continue to grow sales for years to come.

    Unlike TOR and many others, this game will not be a "flash in the pan".

    Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
    image

  • roo67roo67 londonPosts: 402Member

    This is going by sales i know that GW2 already has 

    1 month anything between 1.5 -3 million

    as for 12 months its a more difficult question so many things could go right or wrong . 

    if it goes wrong 3 -4 million 

    if it goes right 4 to 8 million . 

    truth is I really dont know . I have a feeling this is the game that will take over from WoW as the next mmo that will catch the public mood . Thats partly because WoWs lost its mojo and even fans like myself see it as a pale reflection of what it once was . 

    Best mmo in 8 years but I do think I prefered WoW vanilla to GW2 but its the first mmo since thats given me "that feeling" 

  • AerowynAerowyn BUZZARDS BAY, MAPosts: 7,928Member
    Originally posted by Vorch

    Conservative Estimates:

     

    1.5-2 mil first month

    4-5 mil first year

     

    FYI, saw this thread on GW2G

    my guess as well

    I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg

  • yaoming36yaoming36 None of your damn business, INPosts: 189Member Uncommon

    500,000 copies. 

     

     

  • gaeanprayergaeanprayer Somewhere Out There, PAPosts: 2,320Member Uncommon

    "Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

  • RoybeRoybe Star, NCPosts: 420Member
    Originally posted by Mykai
    Originally posted by William12
    rofl is this a troll post ?  Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now let alone that many after 30 days.   I fully expect it to sell 3-4m in the first year though.  You guys need to adjust your expectations the game will not sustain the playerbase over time but thats ok because its b2p.

     

    Prepare to be shocked:  http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2012/07/134_115061.html

     

    1 million pre-orders as of July 13th.  Since then it's been a best seller on Amazon.

    Analysts never seem to get the story correct.  It  isn't that "NCsoft has enjoyed increased brand value in the United States...."  Arenanet has convinced the market that they are better than NCSoft.  If the NCSoft's ideas of 'commercialization' includes a deepening of the attachment between the game and the gem store (for instance), I can assure you that many of those that have purchased the first part of the game won't add to their purchase  in the future.

    Hopefully, NCSoft doesn't read it's own press, and/or believe in it.  NCSoft has a bad rep in the states, and the only reason that this game has the backing in the community is BECAUSE of Arenanet AND NCSoft's willingness to let these developers make the game the way they wanted.

    I'm not bringing the gem store into this lightly, the addition of a Producer of Monetization (at or around the time of Arenanet's change in Gem Store policies) is a concerning issue.  My fear is that this person is a NCSoft employee, FIRST, forcing NCSoft policies upon the game in detriment to Arenanet's wishes.  (What will be interesting to watch is the other producers of the game, and how many will stay around if this starts to occur) This concern has not prevented me from buying the game, but has caused me, as I am sure many others, to keep a watchful eye on the comings and goings within the gem store.

     

    On topic 2.5 million on release day....other amounts depending on the future involvement of NCSoft in the handling of the game and its handling of Arenanet.

     

  • ozmonoozmono Not tellingPosts: 1,211Member
    I don't expect it to do any better than Swtor at first although I think it will continue to grow steadily afterwards. That said I do also expect a drop in active players after launch and than I expect it to grow  steadily. So SWTOR did about 1.5 mil right? so I would say about 1-1.5 and I'd expect it to sell about double that in the first year to raise the total box sales to about 2-3 mil.
  • fascismfascism marquette, MIPosts: 358Member Uncommon

    1.75 million 1 month

    2.5 million end of year

  • MykaiMykai Anonymous, COPosts: 13Member
    Originally posted by fascism

    1.75 million 1 month

    2.5 million end of year

    I must say, the general consensus is lower than I thought it'd be.  I guess that's a good thing though...means that more people will be pleasantly surprised ;-)

  • xalvixalvi brooklyn, NYPosts: 329Member

    1st month -  3million

    1st year - 6-7million....If you mean the first year until august 2013 that is and not the end of this year.

    Pretty reasonable estimate, imo.

  • latinkurolatinkuro ToulousePosts: 121Member

    I'd say they already have around 2 million+ sales consisting of pre-purchasers and pre-orders.

    1st month, I'd put it @ 2.5 to 3 million

    1 year, 4 to 5 million

    after that I see them gaining more and more every year and all other mmo's losing subs and people while GW2 numbers keep rising. Many shitty f2p and p2p games closing down and going bankrupt, while only the good ones prevail, albeit with lesser numbers due to GW2.

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