Originally posted by William12 rofl is this a troll post ? Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now let alone that many after 30 days. I fully expect it to sell 3-4m in the first year though. You guys need to adjust your expectations the game will not sustain the playerbase over time but thats ok because its b2p.
i dont think it will have wow numbers just because wow can run on a out of the box walmart computer. where as gw2 needs a decent computer to run it. im gunna be playing it full time there is just so much stuff to do in it. plus you need 100 skill points for some items so thats lvl 180 haha. your not gunna do that in first month im sure
"As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days those are now the only two states youll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2
Ya, I originally posted it there, but then decided to post here instead since mmorpg.com tends to get more activity. I want to get an idea of what current expectations are and to do so requires a lot of guessers;-)
I'd like to hear other people's estimates for GW2 sales in the 1st month and 1st year. Here is my guess:
1st Month: 5 Million Copies (includes pre-purchases)
1st Year: 15 Million Copies
These might seem a little overly optimistic, but I'm betting that word of mouth will play a big role shortly after release. Either way, I think it's fun to discuss.
i would guess it to be 2.3 million in first month and 5 million after first year .
Originally posted by Dracill Im lost... There are people here saying that if Gw2 sell as many copies as tortanic is a succes?
Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.
There is a certain ceiling for intial MMO sales. GW2 has many things going for it to raise that ceiling, but so did TOR. The difference here is that GW2 will, IMO, have the best retention rates since WoW and will also be one of those very rare MMOs that grows it's sales and active populations over time.
I think GW2 will easily take it's first month sales and double them over the following eleven months. If the rate and quality of expansions is there, then it will be a game that will continue to grow sales for years to come.
Unlike TOR and many others, this game will not be a "flash in the pan".
This is going by sales i know that GW2 already has
1 month anything between 1.5 -3 million
as for 12 months its a more difficult question so many things could go right or wrong .
if it goes wrong 3 -4 million
if it goes right 4 to 8 million .
truth is I really dont know . I have a feeling this is the game that will take over from WoW as the next mmo that will catch the public mood . Thats partly because WoWs lost its mojo and even fans like myself see it as a pale reflection of what it once was .
Best mmo in 8 years but I do think I prefered WoW vanilla to GW2 but its the first mmo since thats given me "that feeling"
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
Originally posted by William12 rofl is this a troll post ? Ill be SHOCKED if GW2 even has 1m preorders right now let alone that many after 30 days. I fully expect it to sell 3-4m in the first year though. You guys need to adjust your expectations the game will not sustain the playerbase over time but thats ok because its b2p.
1 million pre-orders as of July 13th. Since then it's been a best seller on Amazon.
Analysts never seem to get the story correct. It isn't that "NCsoft has enjoyed increased brand value in the United States...." Arenanet has convinced the market that they are better than NCSoft. If the NCSoft's ideas of 'commercialization' includes a deepening of the attachment between the game and the gem store (for instance), I can assure you that many of those that have purchased the first part of the game won't add to their purchase in the future.
Hopefully, NCSoft doesn't read it's own press, and/or believe in it. NCSoft has a bad rep in the states, and the only reason that this game has the backing in the community is BECAUSE of Arenanet AND NCSoft's willingness to let these developers make the game the way they wanted.
I'm not bringing the gem store into this lightly, the addition of a Producer of Monetization (at or around the time of Arenanet's change in Gem Store policies) is a concerning issue. My fear is that this person is a NCSoft employee, FIRST, forcing NCSoft policies upon the game in detriment to Arenanet's wishes. (What will be interesting to watch is the other producers of the game, and how many will stay around if this starts to occur) This concern has not prevented me from buying the game, but has caused me, as I am sure many others, to keep a watchful eye on the comings and goings within the gem store.
On topic 2.5 million on release day....other amounts depending on the future involvement of NCSoft in the handling of the game and its handling of Arenanet.
I don't expect it to do any better than Swtor at first although I think it will continue to grow steadily afterwards. That said I do also expect a drop in active players after launch and than I expect it to grow steadily. So SWTOR did about 1.5 mil right? so I would say about 1-1.5 and I'd expect it to sell about double that in the first year to raise the total box sales to about 2-3 mil.
I must say, the general consensus is lower than I thought it'd be. I guess that's a good thing though...means that more people will be pleasantly surprised ;-)
I'd say they already have around 2 million+ sales consisting of pre-purchasers and pre-orders.
1st month, I'd put it @ 2.5 to 3 million
1 year, 4 to 5 million
after that I see them gaining more and more every year and all other mmo's losing subs and people while GW2 numbers keep rising. Many shitty f2p and p2p games closing down and going bankrupt, while only the good ones prevail, albeit with lesser numbers due to GW2.
Comments
Prepare to be shocked: http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/tech/2012/07/134_115061.html
1 million pre-orders as of July 13th. Since then it's been a best seller on Amazon.
i wonder about the 1 million preorders too
ANET never gave a press release saying that; an analyst said that
heres what ANET said this week
http://newsletters.ncsoft.com/emp/gw2/announcement/2012-08-20/uk.html
Hundreds of thousands of players from around the world will become a part of MMO history when Guild Wars 2 launches on 28 August 2012.
EQ2 fan sites
It depends on where "hundreds of thousands" turns into "millions" i guess. I would say "millions" starts at 2 million+.
i dont think it will have wow numbers just because wow can run on a out of the box walmart computer. where as gw2 needs a decent computer to run it.
im gunna be playing it full time there is just so much stuff to do in it. plus you need 100 skill points for some items so thats lvl 180 haha. your not gunna do that in first month im sure
Conservative Estimates:
1.5-2 mil first month
4-5 mil first year
FYI, saw this thread on GW2G
"As you read these words, a release is seven days or less away or has just happened within the last seven days those are now the only two states youll find the world of Tyria."...Guild Wars 2
Both of you are probably right.....I would think they have over a million pre-purchases and somewhere just shy of a million pre-orders
Im calling it, 12 million copies in six months or is a failure like Swtor, terra, tsw, and all other mmo since wow.
1st month: 2.1 million
1st year: 4 million
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
LOL, in that case...GW2 definitely fails. I don't think WoW even sold 12 million copies in the west...maybe not in the world.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Ya, I originally posted it there, but then decided to post here instead since mmorpg.com tends to get more activity. I want to get an idea of what current expectations are and to do so requires a lot of guessers;-)
Lol, I guess I'm not the most optimistic person in this thread anymore...
I am thinking in the first month it will be eleventy-bajillion.
After the first year, we will all be pod people...
That Guild Wars 2 login screen knocked up my wife. Must be the second coming!
China 28391829381908312839021839138190138193 sales.
Korea 28391829381908312839021839138190138194 sales + Kimchi sales.
NA 5,000,000 sales. Just saying ;D
i would guess it to be 2.3 million in first month and 5 million after first year .
There is a certain ceiling for intial MMO sales. GW2 has many things going for it to raise that ceiling, but so did TOR. The difference here is that GW2 will, IMO, have the best retention rates since WoW and will also be one of those very rare MMOs that grows it's sales and active populations over time.
I think GW2 will easily take it's first month sales and double them over the following eleven months. If the rate and quality of expansions is there, then it will be a game that will continue to grow sales for years to come.
Unlike TOR and many others, this game will not be a "flash in the pan".
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
This is going by sales i know that GW2 already has
1 month anything between 1.5 -3 million
as for 12 months its a more difficult question so many things could go right or wrong .
if it goes wrong 3 -4 million
if it goes right 4 to 8 million .
truth is I really dont know . I have a feeling this is the game that will take over from WoW as the next mmo that will catch the public mood . Thats partly because WoWs lost its mojo and even fans like myself see it as a pale reflection of what it once was .
Best mmo in 8 years but I do think I prefered WoW vanilla to GW2 but its the first mmo since thats given me "that feeling"
my guess as well
I angered the clerk in a clothing shop today. She asked me what size I was and I said actual, because I am not to scale. I like vending machines 'cause snacks are better when they fall. If I buy a candy bar at a store, oftentimes, I will drop it... so that it achieves its maximum flavor potential. --Mitch Hedberg
500,000 copies.
Pretty good already, evidently:
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10151081195219209&set=a.135044094208.103264.114036714208&type=1&relevant_count=1&ref=nf
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
Analysts never seem to get the story correct. It isn't that "NCsoft has enjoyed increased brand value in the United States...." Arenanet has convinced the market that they are better than NCSoft. If the NCSoft's ideas of 'commercialization' includes a deepening of the attachment between the game and the gem store (for instance), I can assure you that many of those that have purchased the first part of the game won't add to their purchase in the future.
Hopefully, NCSoft doesn't read it's own press, and/or believe in it. NCSoft has a bad rep in the states, and the only reason that this game has the backing in the community is BECAUSE of Arenanet AND NCSoft's willingness to let these developers make the game the way they wanted.
I'm not bringing the gem store into this lightly, the addition of a Producer of Monetization (at or around the time of Arenanet's change in Gem Store policies) is a concerning issue. My fear is that this person is a NCSoft employee, FIRST, forcing NCSoft policies upon the game in detriment to Arenanet's wishes. (What will be interesting to watch is the other producers of the game, and how many will stay around if this starts to occur) This concern has not prevented me from buying the game, but has caused me, as I am sure many others, to keep a watchful eye on the comings and goings within the gem store.
On topic 2.5 million on release day....other amounts depending on the future involvement of NCSoft in the handling of the game and its handling of Arenanet.
1.75 million 1 month
2.5 million end of year
I must say, the general consensus is lower than I thought it'd be. I guess that's a good thing though...means that more people will be pleasantly surprised ;-)
1st month - 3million
1st year - 6-7million....If you mean the first year until august 2013 that is and not the end of this year.
Pretty reasonable estimate, imo.
I'd say they already have around 2 million+ sales consisting of pre-purchasers and pre-orders.
1st month, I'd put it @ 2.5 to 3 million
1 year, 4 to 5 million
after that I see them gaining more and more every year and all other mmo's losing subs and people while GW2 numbers keep rising. Many shitty f2p and p2p games closing down and going bankrupt, while only the good ones prevail, albeit with lesser numbers due to GW2.
Angry Joe's Guild Wars 2 video review
Aerowyn's Video Compilation of ALL things Guild Wars 2
@Taugrim explains why the fanbois don't get it