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The battle for NA & EU

sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member

There is a battle brewing for gamers in NA and EU. Right now WOW enjoys the largest number of subscribers in NA and in EU. Question is, will GW2 come close, match, or even possibly beat WOW in NA and EU?

It is no secret that the vast majority of WOW subs are in Aisa; China mainly. As of Jaunary 22, 2008, WOW enjoyed 10 million subs (2m in EU, 2.5m in NA and 5.5m in Asia). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Warcraft

With WOW subs down to 9.1 million no one really knows exactly what the numbers per market are, so for the sake of argument, we're going to assume that the percentages remain the same; out of 9.1 million subs, NA would have 2.275m, EU would have 1.82m and Asia would have 5.005m subs.

Many have heard of KDB Daewoo Securities firm predicting approx 3.12 million GW2 box sales; though some consider KDB to be very reliable, it is still just a prediction, not fact. Since GW2 will only be available in NA and EU gaming markets, though people in other continents will be playing GW2 via NA/EU servers, you can see how it would be quite possible for GW2 to near WOW numbers in NA and in EU. With a prediction of 3.12 million and the threshold being 4.5 million, GW2 would have to beat KDB's expecations by 1.38 million copies; possible? Only time will tell.

One of the reasons why this is such a big deal, especially for Blizzard, is because the vast majority of the revenue for WOW comes from NA and EU, not Asia; due to different payment models. WOW is one of the largest cash cows for Activision/Blizzard, and a significant reduction in revenue from WOW could possibly spell disaster (key "possible"). Blizzard's recent, and quite aggressive, sales, advertisement, and release date campaign I think speak to the possible uneasiness at the Irvine studios.

What do you think?

Comments

  • EmrendilEmrendil TirionPosts: 199Member
    Well, GW2 can't beat WoW in subs. GW2 has no subscription fee.
  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by Emrendil
    Well, GW2 can't beat WoW in subs. GW2 has no subscription fee.

    True enough... I guess I mean active playerbase; and I'm not referring to people actually playing the game at certain times, I mean people who have (regardless of payment model) registered accounts with the games.

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member

    If WoW revenue falters, Vivendi (owners of Activision-Blizzard) will continue to feel the impact.  Vivendi was trying to sell off their shares for some time, largely because WoW is their primary source of income (all the eggs in one basket).

     

    WoW generates a ton of money, but it is too top heavy, and there are simply way too many hands in the coffers.  When it falls, it will the shock heard around the globe.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • rdrakkenrdrakken Gotham, FLPosts: 426Member
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    If WoW revenue falters, Vivendi (owners of Activision-Blizzard) will continue to feel the impact.  Vivendi was trying to sell off their shares for some time, largely because WoW is their primary source of income (all the eggs in one basket).

    WoW generates a ton of money, but it is too top heavy, and there are simply way too many hands in the coffers.  When it falls, it will the shock heard around the globe.

    Agreed. At least for me, WOW was such a great game and to see it become what it is now makes me sad. In some ways, it reminds me of my childhood. I had a wonderful childhood growing up in Spain (was born in Barcelona). I lived in Spain for 19 years and had wonderful experiences. Now I'm an adult living and working in the US. Much like my childhood, WOW has become a part of my past, memories which I will cherish but I am not able to return to. I had a great run with WOW but my time to move on to another game as come; goodbye WOW, hello GW2!

  • VengeSunsoarVengeSunsoar Posts: 5,316Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by Emrendil
    Well, GW2 can't beat WoW in subs. GW2 has no subscription fee.

    True enough... I guess I mean active playerbase; and I'm not referring to people actually playing the game at certain times, I mean people who have (regardless of payment model) registered accounts with the games.

    If you want to compare registered accounts you will need to compare registered accounts for both.  For registered accounts GW2 will have to go a lot further than 4.5 million players.  WoW has had far far far more than 4.5 million registered accounts created in NA and EU.   So we really can't compare that.

    If you want to compare active players, we really cant' do that either.  All GW2 sales can tell is us how many boxes they sold, which would be the same as WoW total registered accounts in NA and EU.  We have no way of determining the number of active players GW2 actually has. 

    Quit worrying about other players in a game and just play.

  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by VengeSunsoar
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by Emrendil
    Well, GW2 can't beat WoW in subs. GW2 has no subscription fee.

    True enough... I guess I mean active playerbase; and I'm not referring to people actually playing the game at certain times, I mean people who have (regardless of payment model) registered accounts with the games.

    If you want to compare registered accounts you will need to compare registered accounts for both.  For registered accounts GW2 will have to go a lot further than 4.5 million players.  WoW has had far far far more than 4.5 million registered accounts created in NA and EU.   So we really can't compare that.

    If you want to compare active players, we really cant' do that either.  All GW2 sales can tell is us how many boxes they sold, which would be the same as WoW total registered accounts in NA and EU.  We have no way of determining the number of active players GW2 actually has. 

    very good points. I hope there is a way to measure the active playerbase of GW2; I would really like to know how both games compare to each other.

  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

    I linked proof for my numbers, could you do the same please :-)

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

    I linked proof for my numbers, could you do the same please :-)

    I think the poster was joking :-)

     

    RoM has only a few servers and last I logged on was last year, and the game was ... dead.  Freemium style.

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • sammandarsammandar San Antonio, TXPosts: 523Member
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

    I linked proof for my numbers, could you do the same please :-)

    I think the poster was joking :-)

    RoM has only a few servers and last I logged on was last year, and the game was ... dead.  Freemium style.

    ah ok, lol... sorry, never played RoM so I had no idea haha :-p

  • rdrakkenrdrakken Gotham, FLPosts: 426Member
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

    I linked proof for my numbers, could you do the same please :-)

     Wikipedia is proof? lol...

    I prefer to look at a companies earnings report and RoM makers made enough profits to fund the making of two games with it...Tera and the upcoming RaiderZ. And yes, RoM made up over 60% of the companies profits for 3 straight years, and their first quarter profits for this year is UP which points to the second quarter being the same due to the massive update the game got which always brings a spike in players playing again.

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by sammandar

    What do you think?

     I think you are wrong on many levels. Runes of Magic has more EU players than WoW and that isnt even the most popular online game over there...

    I linked proof for my numbers, could you do the same please :-)

     Wikipedia is proof? lol...

    It is if you know how to read the citations.  The data presented is sourced on Wikipedia:

    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17062

    January 22, 2008

    Blizzard Entertainment has announced that World of Warcraft has recently passed 10 million subscribers worldwide since its launch on November 23, 2004. According to Blizzard, WoW now hosts more than 2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia.

     

    I prefer to look at a companies earnings report and RoM makers made enough profits to fund the making of two games with it...Tera and the upcoming RaiderZ. And yes, RoM made up over 60% of the companies profits for 3 straight years, and their first quarter profits for this year is UP which points to the second quarter being the same due to the massive update the game got which always brings a spike in players playing again.

    This screams for a source, which wasn't provided.  I realize RoM was profitable, because it was made cheap.  60%? Spike in players? huh?  The expansion keeps current players playing - are there new players to this game?  Citation pls!

     

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • rdrakkenrdrakken Gotham, FLPosts: 426Member
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by rdrakken

     Wikipedia is proof? lol...

    It is if you know how to read the citations.  The data presented is sourced on Wikipedia:

    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17062

    January 22, 2008

    Blizzard Entertainment has announced that World of Warcraft has recently passed 10 million subscribers worldwide since its launch on November 23, 2004. According to Blizzard, WoW now hosts more than 2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia.

     

    I prefer to look at a companies earnings report and RoM makers made enough profits to fund the making of two games with it...Tera and the upcoming RaiderZ. And yes, RoM made up over 60% of the companies profits for 3 straight years, and their first quarter profits for this year is UP which points to the second quarter being the same due to the massive update the game got which always brings a spike in players playing again.

    This screams for a source, which wasn't provided.  I realize RoM was profitable, because it was made cheap.  60%? Spike in players? huh?  The expansion keeps current players playing - are there new players to this game?  Citation pls!

     

     Gamasutra...oh please...and a 4 year old article on top of it...

    Fine, I will play.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runes_of_Magic

    "On August 16, 2010, after the launch of chapter III, they announced that Runes of Magic had exceeded four million registered users"

    http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/56545/Runes-of-Magic-Reaches-4-Million-Player-Milestone

    http://www.mpogd.com/news/?ID=8494

    "Among other things, Lands of Despair introduces four fantastic new regions featuring never-before-seen opponents and dungeons to challenge the more than 5 million players."

    You are unwilling to investigate anything that goes up against what you WANT to believe. Their earnings are in their company reports...go look them up and read...or just go look at the list of games the company makes and ask yourself...where the heck could they have gotten the funds to make 2 massive games like Tera and RaiderZ? but that would require the ability to look beyond what you want to believe is true...the idea that WoW may not be the most popular game in parts of the world OMG IT CANT BE!

  • AsboAsbo ManchesterPosts: 796Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Karteli

    If WoW revenue falters, Vivendi (owners of Activision-Blizzard) will continue to feel the impact.  Vivendi was trying to sell off their shares for some time, largely because WoW is their primary source of income (all the eggs in one basket).

     

    WoW generates a ton of money, but it is too top heavy, and there are simply way too many hands in the coffers.  When it falls, it will the shock heard around the globe.

     This is so right and hence there are lots of people trying to shift their shares as I feel with the people from Vivendi trying to dump their shares or off load asap that send massive concerns through the shares industry. I feel that the people at the top can see the Titanic effect coming and they are unable to stop it, they only have the option to throw more money at it so as to try and prevent it collapsing. Hence their aggresive push over the last few months and even trying to drop their latest expansion on the same day as GW2 goes live shows how much they know it will effect them. So they trying to retain their player base as many may try GW2 and that will have a massive impact on their subs. They cannot afford to have their player base move to GW2 but I feel they have not done enough to get the respect of their once loyal player base and it's only a matter of months before this starts to show and their sub will drop before Christmas IMO.

    Asbo

  • KarteliKarteli Providence, PAPosts: 2,646Member
    Originally posted by rdrakken
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by rdrakken

     Wikipedia is proof? lol...

    It is if you know how to read the citations.  The data presented is sourced on Wikipedia:

    http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=17062

    January 22, 2008

    Blizzard Entertainment has announced that World of Warcraft has recently passed 10 million subscribers worldwide since its launch on November 23, 2004. According to Blizzard, WoW now hosts more than 2 million subscribers in Europe, more than 2.5 million in North America, and approximately 5.5 million in Asia.

     

    I prefer to look at a companies earnings report and RoM makers made enough profits to fund the making of two games with it...Tera and the upcoming RaiderZ. And yes, RoM made up over 60% of the companies profits for 3 straight years, and their first quarter profits for this year is UP which points to the second quarter being the same due to the massive update the game got which always brings a spike in players playing again.

    This screams for a source, which wasn't provided.  I realize RoM was profitable, because it was made cheap.  60%? Spike in players? huh?  The expansion keeps current players playing - are there new players to this game?  Citation pls!

     

     Gamasutra...oh please...and a 4 year old article on top of it...

    Fine, I will play.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runes_of_Magic

    "On August 16, 2010, after the launch of chapter III, they announced that Runes of Magic had exceeded four million registered users"

    http://ve3d.ign.com/articles/news/56545/Runes-of-Magic-Reaches-4-Million-Player-Milestone

    http://www.mpogd.com/news/?ID=8494

    "Among other things, Lands of Despair introduces four fantastic new regions featuring never-before-seen opponents and dungeons to challenge the more than 5 million players."

    You are unwilling to investigate anything that goes up against what you WANT to believe. Their earnings are in their company reports...go look them up and read...or just go look at the list of games the company makes and ask yourself...where the heck could they have gotten the funds to make 2 massive games like Tera and RaiderZ? but that would require the ability to look beyond what you want to believe is true...the idea that WoW may not be the most popular game in parts of the world OMG IT CANT BE!

    Your funny.  A bit agitated, but amusing :P

     

    Lets run down what you said.  Gamasutra is a respected news source.  The data was from a Blizzard earnings call.  It is also graphed on www.mmodata.net, with the divisions between WoW east vs west.  This practice was discontinued because eastern popularity was not giving a good enough spin for investors.  It was converted shortly after to "worldwide subscribers", essentially a lump of west+east.

     

    On to RoM.  Registered users mean nothing.  Perfect World has 60 million registered accounts.  Does it have 60 million players? Nope.

     

    So you bring up the RoM earnings reports, then claim it's the readers responsibility to either believe what you are saying or investigate on their own?  Bottom line, to which many would agree, if you can't back up financial success claims, then it's best not to even bring them up.  Did RoM finance other games the company made?  No idea.  Maybe they had other activities to generate revenue.

     

    To your last claim, again 5 million registered accounts =/= 5 million active players.  Your expectations for the next quarter hinge on some sort of belief that the expansion will bring in new income and a spike in players.  Considering this game fell off gamers radars long ago, I'd say it's up to you to prove this.

     

    Amusing effort, you trash Gamasutra, but then tout Mpogd.com .. lol what? :-)

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • rdrakkenrdrakken Gotham, FLPosts: 426Member
    Originally posted by Karteli

    Your funny.  A bit agitated, but amusing :P

     On to RoM.  Registered users mean nothing.  Perfect World has 60 million registered accounts.  Does it have 60 million players? Nope.

     Amusing effort, you trash Gamasutra, but then tout Mpogd.com .. lol what? :-)

     Speaking of being funny, agitated and amusing...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PWRD

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ea&ql=1

    Nice attempt at being smart...Perfect World, the maker of nothing but free games is worth almost as much as EA one of the largest game makers on the planet...so now lets look beyond stock value...

    EAs current qtr estimates are at 969.00M

    PWE current qtr estimate is at 750.00M

    So tell me oh wise one how is it that PWE, which only makes F2P games is making only 200 million less per quater as the giant that is EA?

    Wait wait WAIT dont answer...lets look at Activision/Blizzard!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ATVI&ql=0

    Not only is their stock near the value of PWE...Current qtr estimate for them is....708.21M...LESS than Perfect World...how is it that Blizzard, with WoW, is making LESS MONEY THAN PERFECT WORLD?!?  (yes...click on Analyst Estimates links on the side of each link I gave)

    You...suck...at...this...because...your...opinion...is...based...on...what...you...believe...is...true...not...what...is...actually...true.

    Company values prove you wrong as a F2P only game maker is making more money than all of Activison/Blizzard income...and they are not even the 3rd biggest F2P game maker.

    I await your follow up post where you point out the differences in current year totals so I can bring down the axe on your neck because I know you cannot admit you are wrong no matter what information is put in front of you.

  • bobfishbobfish SouthamptonPosts: 1,688Member

    How long will you give it?

     

    WoW didn't hit 5 million NA/EU sales in the first week, not even the first month, it took over a year to get those kind of numbers and a momentum from word of mouth that we didn't see again in the industry until Minecraft came along.

     

    GW2 is likely to do around the same as SWTOR did in the first month, the question is, can it retain those players and continue to grow like WoW did? I'd be suprised, but it is possible.

  • comrademariocomrademario LondonPosts: 98Member

    If WoW closed its doors tomorrow it would still be considered the greatest gaming success story ever. No matter your personal feelings on how the game runs these days, it has been on top of the mountain for 8 years and counting. When it does decide to end (I assume it will go f2p shortly before Titan looms on the horizon) it won't be the shock heard round the world. It will be polite applause for a game that has redfined this entire genre and pushed the gaming community fully into the mainstream.

     

    And that's from someone who has never set foot in WoW, not a fanboy.

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