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MMO bubble soon to pop?
Mavek
Member Posts: 138
Disclaimer: This is entirely speculation based off of this website so if I am completely off base please don't attack me too hard (or maybe you should because I am, in fact, using this site as a source).
Has anyone else noticed the dwindling number of games listed at the top of this site. 575 is where the total currently sits. I seem to remember during E3's future gaming converence Bill Murphy made the comment that "mmorpg.com had over 600 games listed on the site" (paraphrased) and I, personally, do remember seeing it peak at around 610 or so. But that also leads me to remember when about a year or so ago (maybe longer actually) the site had only around 400 listed games. As anyone who frequents this, or any video gaming site in general, would know mmo's have become a dime a dozen in recent years.
Now I have no idea why games may have been removed from this site. It could have been due to them shutting down, or maybe it was something that was deemed to not be in the MMORPG genre and was simply removed from the site. Either case it seems that 30-40 games is a pretty steep drop off. Maybe a moderator or someone could chime in as to the reasoning.
So this leads me to ask Is the recent drop off attributed to an inflated market of mmo's that is becoming unsustainable or is it just part of the average business cycle (some games win and others lose)?
Comments
I think it is like when televisions first came out. . only a few had them and they were super cool and expensive (think AOL's NWN at $6 an hour)
Next they became popular and cheaper (UO, DAoC etc.) $15 a month. . not a lot of models to chose from soon many people had them and they were more common.
Next the colour television was an "inovation" that stuck around (think EQ/Wow elements)
Flat panel was cool but took awhile to catch on. . at this point everyone has one. I have a 42 inch TV and do not feel like it needs to be replaced until it breaks.
New things are tried and hyped but don't do as well as you people thought (SWTOR, RIFT etc.) think 3D TVs here.
The problem is that it is not new anymore. It is too late to jump in on the ground level and be as successful as the pioneers. The more people try and fall short the more enthusiasm is lost by the playerbase.
SWTOR and TSW where the first MMOs in a long time that I didn't buy right away. The market is saturated and no one is offering enough new features to make me as interested as when they first came out. There is a flood of games that we are not even going to hear about. There are threads here where someone says <GAME> is the best MMO ever and I have not even heard of it.
It is time for the chaffe to fall off (which is what you are talking about). The number of MMOs available or being played does not equal the desire of people to play them. . it was too high. The same thing is already happening to the mobile marketplace but only much faster if you look at tablets. How long are people going to buy a new one every year when they don't offer much more than the last time. . what can they offer that is that different. A better camera on a tablet is like RIFTS offering better graphics than WoW. . it isn't going to be enough at some point.
TLDR
I got totally off track there. My point was that it should not be unexpected and going forward I would expect less games but hopefully more true inovation to keep the market interested or it will fall off.
Wa min God! Se æx on min heafod is!
I don't think the bubble's about to pop. The fact is that there's a finite number of MMO players and the market can only support so many games and the inferior ones will close down.
TBH, and this is just my opinion and many will no doubt disagree, the number should be much smaller than it is currently. There are far too many games listed here that are not MMO's. DayZ is not an MMO. D3 is not an MMO. Any lobby based game in fact, is not an MMO and they should be removed.
One example is a game called Zentia. No clear reason given, just "tough decision we're shutting it down". So one is left assuming that the issue was finances.
Also a couple startups closed down without making it to release. A few didn't even make it to closed beta before keeling over.
I don't see it as the genre entering a crash-n-burn scenerio. More like the competition is stiff, the economy in some parts of the world is not so good, and other genres (MOBA for example) are picking up where the MMO hype left off.
One axiom I like from investing is that infinite growth is not indefinitely sustainable. Right now, MMORPG development and operation is a risky investment. Investors don't like risk, especially when the potential for return isn't very high.
Pop? Not severely, but a contraction / correction seems likely or has already started. (in my opinion)
Yeah this is pretty much how I felt when thinking about it. As well as the thought that there are only so many peple playing mmo's that the market will have to contract. I'm not expecting there to be a time when 90% of the games on the market all suddenly vanish but it seems theres going to be a restructuring period as new games release. Gamers interests and desires will be what determines what games thrive and what games die so I guess it is becoming a matter of changing tastes within the genre.
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Personally I'm hoping that future devs/publishers will learn a lesson from TOR/TSW and go back to gameplay mattering the most , and get away from this story/voiceover trend mattering so much.
I didn't mind EQ2's NPC's having voices in the actual game , as that wasn't a cutscene break from the virtual world.
But this "HEY YALL < WE HAVE VOICES AND CUTSCENES < PAY US MONTHLY TO WATCH A STORY" crap in mmorpg's hopefully will come to an end.
So hopefully the "pop" will be realzing dropping millions on voice acting is a stupid way to spend your budget on an mmorpg , and we might get a return to virtual worlds.
Rather than a bubble, I see the mmo industry as a tree. With its roots in tabletop games, adventure games, muds, and the like, and coming together in a few, very strong titles that created the main direction of the genre, but eventually branching out into smaller, more flexible and sustainable games that go in various other directions. Some of those branches don't survive, either for natural reasons or due to intentional actions. Over time, new branches take their place.
Lots of games have closed. Many more are about to launch or are in developement. It's normal and healthy.
I think there is a real probability for a MMO gaming bubble to burst somewhere in 2013.
In the last 5 years ever more MMO have been released, sometimes every 2nd months a high production cost MMO, and tons of cheap MMOs on top. A lot of them were either Asia grinder or variants of WoW clones. That can't be good. And so far almost all approaches for Triple AAA MMOs have been flops more or less. Games have even begun to close, more and more MMOs get faster and faster from P2P to F2P because they can't produce enough quality to keep players. And now even F2P cash shops are seeming in trouble.
Yes, I think it is a large probability we see a MMO game bubble burst in 2013.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
Just the usual dynamics in a still quite new market.
First you have the inovators who have a completely new idea and start a new genre (UO, EQ etc). As others recognize that there is a new market where you can make money more and more companies join. A few with good quality products. Most are garbage. Later on the market stabilizes,the unexperienced/fast money companies become fewer and fewer and you only get a few companies which stay.
So, nothing special here.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
I agree. The buzz has moved to MOBAs now, which is also a very strong driving force behind the seemingly inexorable shift away from P2P towards F2P.
They just got rid of the dead entries (example: Fasaria World, Knights of Dream City) and games no one was following like some of the RC and TGEA based "MMOs" that rarely developed beyong graphical changes in the default zone the kit came with.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
mmorpg market is oversaturated for years and it is getting worse.
There is simply too much games and to add to it most 'bigger' titles are offering very similar gameplay.
+ mmorpg market is losing part of it playerbase to other online genres like CORPG's, h&s, mmofps, mmorts, social games and MOBAs and even single player games. I don't see it changing. Mmorpg's peaked already.
+ economy is in bad shape in many countries and that has an effect entertaiment spenditure.
Too much games, dwindling playerbase in west and risk-averse and lack of creativity.
Eventual 'crash' or bigger 'correction' actually might be good in long-term perspective if it happens.
At least from my point of view.
I feel sorry for eventual lay-offs though.
QFT.
sadly it's quantity over quality.