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World of Warcraft: Subscription Numbers Dip Below 10M

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  • lotapartylotaparty taxila canttPosts: 514Member
    some people will agree with me that wow is fastly becoming a sinking ship . yes there are some hardcore type of fans of wow who will not leave the game at any cost but they are very less in quantity . my prediction is that the game will lose its subscribers and be below 1 million mark in two years time . that is my view  though .

    image

  • ButcherDinoButcherDino IstanbulPosts: 4Member
    As every one n every thing will taste The Death one day...
  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    It's been pointed out once, and it should be pointed out again.

    Blizzard just have their most successful quarter ever.

  • YakkinYakkin irvine, CAPosts: 919Member
    Originally posted by Illyssia

    WoW is on the downward spiral and next year, I think, we are going to see major changes at Activision/Bioware.

    Bioware isn't part of Activision. I think you are mixing up companies.

  • YakkinYakkin irvine, CAPosts: 919Member

    Originally posted by lotaparty
    some people will agree with me that wow is fastly becoming a sinking ship . yes there are some hardcore type of fans of wow who will not leave the game at any cost but they are very less in quantity . my prediction is that the game will lose its subscribers and be below 1 million mark in two years time . that is my view  though .

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    It's been pointed out once, and it should be pointed out again.

    Blizzard just have their most successful quarter ever.

    @lota

    Well if you had sunk several years of your life into a character loaded with achievements, mounts, the best gear each tier has to offer, I don't think you'd want to dump all that work into the trash, would you?

    @dotdot

    Wasn't that mostly due to their cash shop?

     

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member
    Originally posted by Enigmatus

    @dotdot

    Wasn't that mostly due to their cash shop?

     

    I don't think it matters at all.

    Blizzard are a company. Their main goal, at least at this stage in their development, is to increase cashflow and revenues, and to increase the value shareholders get out of the company.

    They've achieved that, regardless of how they achieved it. World of Warcraft could tank, but if Blizzard are still reporting year-on-year gains then as far as anyone who matters is concerned... they're achieveing the goals they set out to acheieve.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member
    Originally posted by Enigmatus

    I don't really care if people tell me that this game has 9 million people left; I'll point out they had roughly 11 - 12 miliion at the beginning of 2011, and that losing nearly 1/4 of your subscription base in less than 2 years is nothing to laugh at.

    From what I also understand, World of Warcraft is implied to be a massive percentage (apparently 60%ish) of Activision Blizzard's profits, so if World of Warcraft doesn't stabilize, they risk losing even more of their money, which means less money will be pushed into the development of World of Warcraft, assuming they actually even put in a fraction of the money they earned into actually improving and evolving the World of Warcraft (considering the snail's pace that which they release content, probably not), which means content may start coming out in even smaller chunks and take even longer to come out, and that's not taking into consideration the fact that they are still pumping money into the development of HotS and Titan, the latter of which is still pretty much a mystery to the general public.

    Also, for those who will throw the "they still have 9 million left, that's still far more than the next highest subscription MMO, which is going free to play in the fall and is failing in sub retention," I'd argue to tell that to the investors/shareholders (I forgot which one it was, someone refresh my memory); I'm willing to be that all they are seeing right now is 3 million subscriptions worth of money gone down the drain, and while Blizzard might have been able to stem the worst of the losses with their Annual Passes, Diablo 3, the profits from the cash shop, and I think Starcraft 2, the suits are very likely putting pressure on Blizzard to make sure it doesn't go down any further.

    With all that said, they still maintain their throne as King of MMOs, but even then I could argue that the reason they maintained it for so  long was because their competitors between the years 2005 - 2011 were mediocre at best, craptacular at worst, and marred with poor management, and because even though they probably could have put in a lot more into their game, they still put out very polished and apparently enjoyable content in comparison to existing competition.

    But now that there is potential competition that might actually be able to force people to think about why they would pay a sub to a game that updates content at the pace of a snail, and whose most recent expansion was generally pretty bland at the end (Dragon Soul doesn't hold a candle to the likes of Icecrown Citadel, or even the supposed weakest raid in that expansion, Trials of the Crusader) to more recent offerings like a game that sets itself in a world of conspiracy, a future game that has a whimsical take on Sci-fi in a Pixar like manner, and a game that, while not some super revolutionary second coming of Christ, improves on many old MMO mechanics by a significant amount. Heck, I'd argue even RIFT is starting to gain some momentum, witht ehir ridiculously fast content output and general polish, although how long that lasts depends on how successful Storm Legion turns out to be.

    For those who didn't read the entire thing:

    We may not think it's too much of an issue because WoW has many subs left, but if it keeps going, WoW is definitely losing it's throne as the King. IT WON'T DIE, but it's past its prime.

    P.S. I still like WoW, I just felt it wasn't enjoyable enough to be worth paying money for, so I talked with my wallet and left.

    It seems like most mmos today lose 1/4 of their customers in the first month, let alone over 2 years.

  • IllyssiaIllyssia LondonPosts: 1,524Member
    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    It's been pointed out once, and it should be pointed out again.

    Blizzard just have their most successful quarter ever.

    Hmm, that's not really very acccurate as for Activision/ Blizzard  their total revenue fell 6.2 percent to $1.08 billion.

     

    The key thing for them is sustained sales and growth. If they could get about 15 million signing on every week to Battle.net all would be well. However, they can't and WoW subs (their most persistent game) declining means they have an online game system designed to hold 15 to 20 million that has about 9 million or so now. 

     

    Factor into all of this the strong possibility of takeover then you could be talking massive shake-up in Activision/ Blizzard to keep profits. Remember folks now Diablo 3 is launched there isn't really any new game on the near horizon again for the company. The Blizzard bubble may have in reality burst finally.

  • makevalimakevali Vandiddy, BCPosts: 3Member
    yes! WoW has been injured time to attack Guild Wars 2 and RaiderZ charge!!
  • ThorgaldThorgald OskarshamnPosts: 9Member
    Originally posted by Praetalus
    Bottom line... There is still a shit load of players. Never understood why some of you care so much about blizzards financials. Wait til mop hits and everyone goes back lol. Happens every time. 

    And a couple of months later they all leave again because it's still the same WoW from 10 years ago. And those leaving again are taking even more people with them. Yes you are right, every WoW expansion brings a lot of players back, but they are very very rarely staying, and after every expansion released WoW ends up with less subscribers then they had. It's like one step forward, two steps back...

  • PhryPhry HampshirePosts: 6,288Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Thorgald
    Originally posted by Praetalus
    Bottom line... There is still a shit load of players. Never understood why some of you care so much about blizzards financials. Wait til mop hits and everyone goes back lol. Happens every time. 

    And a couple of months later they all leave again because it's still the same WoW from 10 years ago. And those leaving again are taking even more people with them. Yes you are right, every WoW expansion brings a lot of players back, but they are very very rarely staying, and after every expansion released WoW ends up with less subscribers then they had. It's like one step forward, two steps back...


    if that was the case then i doubt they'd still even have 9m playing, WoW is still the number 1 game, and no matter how hard people try to talk the game down, fact is, no other game even approaches WoW's appeal, and i think thats where a lot of the jealousy stems from, yes MoP will no doubt bring those figures up to 11m again, or at least 10m+ how long they stay, doesnt really matter that much, it just shows that other games, fantasy ones at least, are the 2nd choice. I don't think this is going to change until we get some real innovation in MMO's, though for what its worth, GW2, doesnt have that 'X' factor whatever, that will break the mould, i seriously doubt that any Themepark game will.image

  • IllyssiaIllyssia LondonPosts: 1,524Member
    Free-to-play game, e.g. Runescape, have in theory many more players than WoW.
  • fivorothfivoroth LondonPosts: 3,657Member Uncommon

    Cataclysm was a really bad expansion for WoW. While I didn't like WOTLK at all, I think Cata really dropped the ball. It was only during this expansion that they started bleeding subs like crazy. I think that they made a huge mistake to focus on revamping the 1-60 experience. They spent too much on revamping 1-60 so they didn't release enough endgame content. They failed to release Cata on time, so during the end of Wotlk people got pissed off at the lack of content. Cata failed miserably at delivering  content. I really hope MOP picks up the pace.

    They really have to pull their act together because Blizzard is too dependent on WoW at the moment. They need to release more games and stop relying so much on WoW. They still have SC2 HOTS in the pipeline but I am not sure if that is going to be enough. Lets see what Titan and the D3 expansions hold for the future.

    I find it really sad that so many PC fans hate so much on Blizzard, even wanting the company to go under. You do realise that Blizzard is one of the very FEW companies still loyal to the PC platform? So many of you hate consoles yet you also hate one of the few wildly successful PC only companies.

    I would be very sad if Blizzard go bankrupt...three of the most engaging and popular PC universes will go to waste. Blizzard has been the company which I have always admired and I love their games. But they really need to rethink their strategy as their quality (their major selling point) has been severely lacking recently.

    Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

  • PhryPhry HampshirePosts: 6,288Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Illyssia
    Free-to-play game, e.g. Runescape, have in theory many more players than WoW.


    so does Farmville... just saying image

  • YakkinYakkin irvine, CAPosts: 919Member
    Originally posted by fivoroth

    Cataclysm was a really bad expansion for WoW. While I didn't like WOTLK at all, I think Cata really dropped the ball. It was only during this expansion that they started bleeding subs like crazy. I think that they made a huge mistake to focus on revamping the 1-60 experience. They spent too much on revamping 1-60 so they didn't release enough endgame content. They failed to release Cata on time, so during the end of Wotlk people got pissed off at the lack of content. Cata failed miserably at delivering  content. I really hope MOP picks up the pace.

    They really have to pull their act together because Blizzard is too dependent on WoW at the moment. They need to release more games and stop relying so much on WoW. They still have SC2 HOTS in the pipeline but I am not sure if that is going to be enough. Lets see what Titan and the D3 expansions hold for the future.

    I find it really sad that so many PC fans hate so much on Blizzard, even wanting the company to go under. You do realise that Blizzard is one of the very FEW companies still loyal to the PC platform? So many of you hate consoles yet you also hate one of the few wildly successful PC only companies.

    I would be very sad if Blizzard go bankrupt...three of the most engaging and popular PC universes will go to waste. Blizzard has been the company which I have always admired and I love their games. But they really need to rethink their strategy as their quality (their major selling point) has been severely lacking recently.

    I did check up their wikipedia, and I was surprised at the fact that they have not created any new IPs aside from the currently mysterious Titan; To me, that kind of makes it seem like they are too dependent on these 3 IPs to the point that if all of them were to suffer any major losses, Blizzard doesn't have anything to fall back on.

  • TommiJyurroTommiJyurro Ruidoso, NMPosts: 51Member
    OMG! ONLY 9 MILLION PLAYERS!  Can't wait till the nidjits start prognosticsting the downfall of one of the most popular games of all time.  9 million is still a huge amount of players, whatever their method of subscription.  I DO see the trend of people leaving continuing, but not because of any apocalyptic, Azeroth-ending exodus of players.  WoW is almost ten years old, and despite how easy, and(grudgingly) fun it is to play, it is getting old in the tooth.  So, people, some desperate, others bored, still others just taking a break, will leave.  WoW will end up going down in gaming history as the beast no one single game could kill.  It will just sorta fall out of fashion as gaming technology evolves.  That being said, it's fall from grace will be long and... graceful, with blizzard likely supporting it as long as it continues having a fanbase. 

    Anything new here? Hmmm... Nope. o/

  • OzmodanOzmodan Hilliard, OHPosts: 7,183Member Uncommon

    "Net revenues (including "subscriptions, boxed products, expansion packs, licensing royalties, and value-added services") were $181 million in the latest quarter compared to $359 million in the comparable quarter a year earlier"

    50% drop in revenues, that is no drop in the bucket.  Anyone who thinks Mist is going to bring all those people back is not facing reality.  Wow is starting to really show it's age and it will only get worse.

  • ValuaValua LiverpoolPosts: 520Member
    Originally posted by NBlitz
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by Slampig
    OH NO! Only 9.1 million... You know how many a million is, right?


    I would not be surprised if we keep hearing this kind of reaction all the way back down to 1 million subs.

     

    True, because even at 1 million subs it would still be the largest subscription based MMORPG. You realise that yeah?

     

     

    In the West...In the WESTERN world.

    I get tired of repeating this...but I'll never give up.

     

    IF and only IF WoW ever dipped to as low as 1 million subscribers it would only be a matter of time for the next MMO to snatch WoW's wig...in the West.

    We've seen many P2P titles sell over 1 million units in no time flat...retention kicking in afterwards but that's beside the point.

    WoW +/- 1 million subs, new kid on the block sells +1 million copies with great retention rate...bam, the true end of WoW's era in the West.

     

    But in the eastern world aren't most MMO's free to play? Especially the large ones, where they rely on their cash shops?

    If thats the case, then actually, WoW has more active subscibers than any MMO in the world. (I define a subscriber the same as Blizzard, as someone who has paid to play WoW in the month.)

    Also, no MMO in the entire world makes even close to the money Blizzard makes from WoW.

    Also, it's not easy for any MMO to keep retention, I can't actually think of any that has kept it's players for long other than WoW in the west. 

    So I still believe that even at 1 million subs WoW would still be the largest MMO in the west, possibly in the world.

  • NBlitzNBlitz ZwollePosts: 1,904Member
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by NBlitz
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by Slampig
    OH NO! Only 9.1 million... You know how many a million is, right?


    I would not be surprised if we keep hearing this kind of reaction all the way back down to 1 million subs.

     

    True, because even at 1 million subs it would still be the largest subscription based MMORPG. You realise that yeah?

     

     

    In the West...In the WESTERN world.

    I get tired of repeating this...but I'll never give up.

     

    IF and only IF WoW ever dipped to as low as 1 million subscribers it would only be a matter of time for the next MMO to snatch WoW's wig...in the West.

    We've seen many P2P titles sell over 1 million units in no time flat...retention kicking in afterwards but that's beside the point.

    WoW +/- 1 million subs, new kid on the block sells +1 million copies with great retention rate...bam, the true end of WoW's era in the West.

     

    But in the eastern world aren't most MMO's free to play? Especially the large ones, where they rely on their cash shops?

    If thats the case, then actually, WoW has more active subscibers than any MMO in the world. (I define a subscriber the same as Blizzard, as someone who has paid to play WoW in the month.)

    Also, no MMO in the entire world makes even close to the money Blizzard makes from WoW.

    Also, it's not easy for any MMO to keep retention, I can't actually think of any that has kept it's players for long other than WoW in the west. 

    So I still believe that even at 1 million subs WoW would still be the largest MMO in the west, possibly in the world.

    I don't know about most, but just looking at the ones in the top list currently in South-Korea (http://www.gametrics.com/) the MMOs (Blade & Soul, Aion, TERA) listed there are P2P. 

    "Since commercialization, B&S has been taking the lead of the online player number."

    Keep in mind before B&S, Aion was the most played P2P MMO in South-Korea until B&S launched. Aion sat at an easy 3.5 million subs (most of it in S-Korea).

    B&S has yet to launch in the rest of the world...just wow. 

     

    I don't know about that.

     

    Not big but steady: EvE.

     

    Yes.

     

    No.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common
    Originally posted by Illyssia

     Remember folks now Diablo 3 is launched there isn't really any new game on the near horizon again for the company.

    incorrect - COD: Black Ops II launches Nov 13

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Call_of_Duty:_Black_Ops_II

     

    COD franchise gave Activision / Blizzard good profits, when wow was losing subs last year

    http://www.vg247.com/2011/11/08/activision-blizzard-q3-digital-revenue-up-25-ytd/

     

    Why Activision May Come Roaring Back

    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903940904577561372514716592.html?mod=rss_barrons_features

     

     

     

     

  • ValuaValua LiverpoolPosts: 520Member
    Originally posted by NBlitz
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by NBlitz
    Originally posted by Valua
    Originally posted by sammandar
    Originally posted by Slampig
    OH NO! Only 9.1 million... You know how many a million is, right?


    I would not be surprised if we keep hearing this kind of reaction all the way back down to 1 million subs.

     

    True, because even at 1 million subs it would still be the largest subscription based MMORPG. You realise that yeah?

     

     

    In the West...In the WESTERN world.

    I get tired of repeating this...but I'll never give up.

     

    IF and only IF WoW ever dipped to as low as 1 million subscribers it would only be a matter of time for the next MMO to snatch WoW's wig...in the West.

    We've seen many P2P titles sell over 1 million units in no time flat...retention kicking in afterwards but that's beside the point.

    WoW +/- 1 million subs, new kid on the block sells +1 million copies with great retention rate...bam, the true end of WoW's era in the West.

     

    But in the eastern world aren't most MMO's free to play? Especially the large ones, where they rely on their cash shops?

    If thats the case, then actually, WoW has more active subscibers than any MMO in the world. (I define a subscriber the same as Blizzard, as someone who has paid to play WoW in the month.)

    Also, no MMO in the entire world makes even close to the money Blizzard makes from WoW.

    Also, it's not easy for any MMO to keep retention, I can't actually think of any that has kept it's players for long other than WoW in the west. 

    So I still believe that even at 1 million subs WoW would still be the largest MMO in the west, possibly in the world.

    I don't know about most, but just looking at the ones in the top list currently in South-Korea (http://www.gametrics.com/) the MMOs (Blade & Soul, Aion, TERA) listed there are P2P. 

    "Since commercialization, B&S has been taking the lead of the online player number."

    Keep in mind before B&S, Aion was the most played P2P MMO in South-Korea until B&S launched. Aion sat at an easy 3.5 million subs (most of it in S-Korea).

    B&S has yet to launch in the rest of the world...just wow. 

     

    I don't know about that.

     

    Not big but steady: EvE.

     

    Yes.

     

    No.

    I can't think of a single MMO, or game for that matter, which even has the potential to make as much money as WoW, Call of Duty maybe if it released paid content evey month, but other than that can't think of anything.

     

    Eve didn't keep the amount of players that purchased the game, it steadied out when it was around 200-400k players, but it sold close to 3 million in its lifetime. So I wouldn't even consider that as retention.

     

    I honestly don't think WoW will get down to 1 million subs, by the time it's even nearing that number it will go F2P, but still have a sub for those who want one, WoW will stay above 5 million players for at least the next 5 years. The only MMO I can see hurting WoW is Titan, but Blizzard have said that both games can co-exist.

     

  • IllyssiaIllyssia LondonPosts: 1,524Member
    The smaller WoW model of say a few million subs would mean a major shake-up at Activision Blizzard. That have an online gaming system designed to support 15-20 million players. To make money that would have to shrink back to where they were in terms of scale a few years ago. Remember, folks Blizzard are back to releasing expansions for the next few years now that Diablo 3 has shipped. 10 million don't log into play Diablo 3, its a much smaller number. 
  • 4ccount4ccount moPosts: 1Member Uncommon

    Well i didn't play this game for about 4 years now but the last expension Mists of panda-something with a pandas race and the ninja what ever new class, come on this is the most uncreative thing Blizzard ever made, and WoW as a the most successful game with a monthly payment system should always be creative to be able satisfay the players, after all this game is aging.

     

  • bone12bone12 herningPosts: 31Member
    Originally posted by AzurePrower

    This game is dying. Guild Wars 2 is going to beat them in subscriptions. etc. etc.

    funny dude.. GW 2 is dead already.. not that many bought the game.. only about 1-2million and 30% of the players who buy it will quit... cause Gw2 is to boring

  • GarfunkelGarfunkel MiddlesbroughPosts: 224Member

    Agree that GW2 is boring, I pre-ordered and played in the beta, not impressed at all in fact wish I could get my money back.

    Can't believe that Blizz think that the downturn is purely due to the expansion cycle and DIII? Surely they aren't that naive, like DIII is the only game out there. They've taken a great game and progressively ruined it with their obsession with class balancing and simplifying the whole game down. I cancelled my sub the second the fleshed out the detail on MoP, it's just another step further away from the game I want to play, the game I feel nostalgic about and a step too far for me.

    I have a lot of good memories of my time in WoW and I was going to say that it's time to move on but in fact it's the game that's moved on - if they wound the clock back I would still subscribe.

    _________________________________________
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