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Originally posted by tiefighter25I see another thread has linked to the same article. Just to give you an idea of how ambitious Patcher's estimate is; if you combine all internet users in the US, UK, Ger, Fra, AU, and NZ, you get a total of about 500 million users. If 50 million are playing SWTOR, that's 1 in 10 of ALL internet users will be playing SWTOR. (SWTOR hasn't launched in India or China.)
I can kinda see where Pachter is going with his numbers and how he came up with them.
I don't agree with those numbers but he does have more access than anyone that is willing to talk on record about the game industry.
Only rival to Patcher in terms of financial number access and the inner workings are the 'big CXX types' like Peter Moore which won't give us that information. So in that sense Patcher is the best we got in terms of financial / number stuff.
League of Legends has 35 Million users so that puts his number in the 'not that ridculous although fairly stretched'
Gdemami -Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.
50 million *facepalm*
Yeah, I just see EA spening alot of marketting money going everywhere saying that they got 5 million accounts in a 3 months since they go f2p. Of course 90% of them will be inactive after a week, etc
It is same bullshit as many browser games flexing that they have 10 million accounts. Some of them have, but almost all of them unactive and you cannot even erase it in most games. Not that most people would bother.
I have a friend who play browser games while multitasking some work on his PC. He just jump between f2p games and he never remember passwords and just create new accounts when he come back to some game he played 2 months ago last time. He propably made hundreads of accounts in various games by himself with multiple ones in each game + he does not stick in any game longer than 2-3 days and does not spend a penny.
Anyway 50 million....that's hilarious.
Originally posted by jpnz League of Legends has 35 Million users so that puts his number in the 'not that ridculous although fairly stretched'
35 million accounts. That does not equal users.
I would like to know how many of those 35 million accounts were actively used / played in last month or in last 3 months.
LoL is extremly popular, but unless f2p games start publishing average concurrent users number / month, then it is all just spin.
In Asia that's how game popularity is evaluated. Concurrent users number, not how many account were created since game was published.
Corporate cheerleader. One general rule in marketing is never acknowledge a negative or weakness. Another is to treat everything that the company does as if they invented it, and as if it will revolutionize the industry because they did.
Sanity and marketing have very little in common. Most marketing is delusional, and encourages others to believe a twisted reality.
Ken Fisher - Semi retired old fart Network Administrator, now working in Network Security. I don't Forum PVP. If you feel I've attacked you, it was probably by accident. When I don't understand, I ask. Such is not intended as criticism.
You know what's fun about chaos? I do, but I won't tell.
EA will have spend three times the amount of money already invested in SW:TOR, on marketing if they ever want to get anywhere near those numbers.
so say we all
Originally posted by jpnzI can kinda see where Pachter is going with his numbers and how he came up with them.I don't agree with those numbers but he does have more access than anyone that is willing to talk on record about the game industry.Only rival to Patcher in terms of financial number access and the inner workings are the 'big CXX types' like Peter Moore which won't give us that information. So in that sense Patcher is the best we got in terms of financial / number stuff.League of Legends has 35 Million users so that puts his number in the 'not that ridculous although fairly stretched'
Originally posted by ste2000
For a guy that 'doesn't have a clue' he sure earns a lot. :P
As with all analysts, you can disagree with how he got his numbers but you can't dispute the factual numbers that made him get his.
It is like a math equation, factually the numbers are 1,2,4. In Patcher's case, he did 1+2+4 = 7 while some might do 1*2*4 = 8 or 4-2-1 = 1
50 million accounts - a stretch; game will need a big relaunch and lots of advertising money.
50 millionunique users - even bigger stretch
50 million paying customers - yeah right.
I wonder what MP's take on Zynga is.
If in 1982 we played with the current mentality, we would have burned down all the pac man games since the red ghost was clearly OP. Instead we just got better at the game.
Originally posted by GrumpyCharr I think that EA people are listening to Pachter instead of gamers. If the sub model was the problem, they wouldn't have even sold the boxes. As if a 1M+ people looked at their wallets and said, "gosh darnit, I dont have $15 bucks ... sorry swtor." That's not why they left.
F2P is 'the future' as historically it earns more money than the sub model.
Most game that went F2P from Sub-based increased its profits.
DDO, LOTRO, AoC, Aion are just some of the examples.
I don't get the Pachter hate though, as he is one of the most accurate analyst in the gaming field right now.
Does he get everything right? Course not, he doesn't have a crystal ball.
But his logic and reasoning on his forecasts are all sound.
Originally posted by BlackestNite Originally posted by GrumpyCharr I think that EA people are listening to Pachter instead of gamers. If the sub model was the problem, they wouldn't have even sold the boxes. As if a 1M+ people looked at their wallets and said, "gosh darnit, I dont have $15 bucks ... sorry swtor." That's not why they left.
more like EA people are feeding patcher positive spin. look back ont the history of swtor financial spin. all from patcher.
This post is factually false.
Patcher is an analyst and therefore his personal interest / bias has to be declared to avoid conflict of interests.
He goes off on factual numbers and makes conclusions from those. Therefore it isn't 'spin'.
Whether you agree with his conclusions or not is irrelevant.
He was more negative on SWTOR compared to other analysts btw. Then again, you do have to be involved in the financial field to know that since mainstream gaming media usually don't cover the other guys.
Originally posted by Xiaoki So, within 1 year of SW:TOR going Free to play Pachter could be right about 10 million people. Its just that those 10 million wont be all be playing at the same time or even be 10 million unique people.
they dont mean active players -- what they really mean are registered accounts
and 10 million is very possible
example: Free Realms
first month of launch SOE announced 2 million accounts
a year later, SOE announced 8 million accounts
Kickstarter: Stuff I'm supporting
Originally posted by Nadia Originally posted by Xiaoki So, within 1 year of SW:TOR going Free to play Pachter could be right about 10 million people. Its just that those 10 million wont be all be playing at the same time or even be 10 million unique people.
they dont really mean players -- what they really mean are accounts
So it's kinda like units sold?...
If we look away from the all the money coming in from subs( also regardless of sub numbers), selling 50 million copies over the course of years is probably hard, but I think doable for some, if it's doable for SWTOR? who knows, but knowing how many Star Wars fans that are out there, and also the fact that there is no other star wars mmo out there, might help them achieve it.
All those fans might not stay in the game, but are likely to atleast buy the game and try it.
Edit: Oh ye, and the f2p coming up, then making an account will be free, and some people having multiple accounts, 50 million accounts is very possible then (in total, not active).
He who keeps his cool best wins.
Originally posted by Teala this guy must be the worst analyst ever in the history of anything related to being an analyst. He still doesn't get it. Good games attract players and they will play the game - bad games - even free to play bad games do not attract players. Anyway, this analyst from Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter(someone I have written about in my blog before) is now saying that SWTOR going free to play will bring in - get this 10 million players! He goes further and claims that SWTOR might have 50 million people playing it in a couple of years! 50 million! They could get that many people playing with free game weekends and they can't get people to come back with the offer of free game time and he thinks that a game going free to play(and not a very good f2p option to boot) is going to bring in upwards of 50 million people?! Seriously? This guy is off his rocker. Read it here! <<<<
Fifty million? What did he do, roll a d100 and multiply by 1 million? Because otherwise it sounds like some crack-brained idea. Nexon, one of the biggest F2P companies in the world with 39 active F2P MMOs and at least 5 more in beta, and they have just 82.5 million active accounts world-wide with 9 million paying customers.
And tons of them are dupes and bots.
Originally posted by Xiaoki Maple Story had 100 million people a couple years ago. Well, 100 million accounts were made. So, within 1 year of SW:TOR going Free to play Pachter could be right about 10 million people. Its just that those 10 million wont be all be playing at the same time or even be 10 million unique people.
90 million bots and dupes...