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Biggest MMO Failure to date?

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  • askdabossaskdaboss LondonPosts: 631Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by lifeordinary

    So you are saying that WAR is more successful than SWTOR because it is still P2P? even though SWTOR still hs population somewhere around 500K players and more servers than WAR can ever dream for.

    Is that your logic? F2P = failure? and not take into account over all population and active servers?

    Please, sir... Please... Have you heard of something called "Return On Investment"? I think that's the logic people are using.

    Massive investement, poor return = failure.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by busdriver

    Do the math...

    How do you do math when you do not know what the initial investments, operational and other related costs and revenue are? All you know is that SWTOR will be substantially profitable at 500k subscribers and that currently the game has well over that. So I really wonder what "math" you use?


    Destined to kill WoW? Says who? Source?


    What other game released in past years did not lose subscribers after launch in similar pattern?


    Isn't it the other way round and wouldn't it be a failure to ignore and not pursuit an opportunity of F2P conversion to make more money?

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by askdabossMassive investement, poor return = failure.

    The point being addressed is that people do make equation of F2P = failure because the in their mind successful games are P2P only for some arbitrary reason ignoring any business side of the thing. Very inane assertion.


    You do not know what their ROI is not to say you lack means to make further implications so what do you base your claim on?

  • KyleranKyleran Paradise City, FLPosts: 21,707Member Epic
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by busdriver

    Do the math...

     

    How do you do math when you do not know what the initial investments, operational and other related costs and revenue are? All you know is that SWTOR will be substantially profitable at 500k subscribers and that currently the game has well over that. So I really wonder what "math" you use?


    Destined to kill WoW? Says who? Source?


    What other game released in past years did not lose subscribers after launch in similar pattern?


    Isn't it the other way round and wouldn't it be a failure to ignore and not pursuit an opportunity of F2P conversion to make more money?

    I have to agree, there's no way to do the math, EA has never released what it really cost to make SWTOR, every figure you've ever seen on these forums has been speculative or based on questionable "insider" rumors.

    To be sure, it was not the WOW killer that I'm sure the people backing it were hoping for, but don't think for a minute that EA/Mythic didn't notice the trend for every MMORPG besides a couple to follow the pattern of huge initial box sales followed by rapidly declining subs.

    They didn't decide to convert to F2P yesterday, this has likely been a contingency plan since they first seriously started discussing the payment model several years ago.

    Did they want it to be a sub only game like WOW, sure, but did they not think it quite possibly would follow the model of WAR, also an EA title, c'mon this wasn't EA's first time to the rodeo.

    The reason they are moving so quickly to F2P is they realize with WAR they waiting too long, the player base had largely moved on and they felt it was too late to save it. (Also, that title is in much worse shape)

    SWOTOR can still make them a good amount of money with the F2P model, the sooner the better actually. 

    The fall launch window will be perfect.  By then the GW2 shine will have worn off some (don't kid yourself, the market will move on from it as quickly as they do all other titles once they consume its core content) and why not go back and try something else that will be "free".

     

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  • IcewhiteIcewhite Elmhurst, ILPosts: 6,403Member
    Originally posted by BarCrow

    I'd say one of the MMOs you can't play at all anymore for lack of it's continued existence. Pick one.

    Chuckle.  What was that Japanese MMO that shut down because a crash wiped the player database, and they had no backup?  Seems a pretty "Doh!" moment for somebody.

    Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.

  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member
    Originally posted by busdriver
     

    Do the math and explain how EA has made back their initial investment (200-500 million dollars) + running costs, then we stop calling it a failure.

    And while you're at it, explain how a game that was destined to kill WoW, but has now lost at least 60% of its playerbase and heading F2P... all that in less than a year, is not to be considered a failure?

    Fanboism sure is a weird thing, it's like a virus that switches off that part of human brain where logical thinking resides.

    Lets have a look at this post! :)

    1st paragraph is speculation based upon nothing substantial other than 'I read it on this blog which sourced this totally legit and not shady anonymous internet person's uncle's former husband's roommate!'

    2nd paragraph is some sort of the posters opinion of 'SWTOR was suppose to kill WoW'.

    3rd is an attack but uses the word 'logical' in a non-irony way.

     

    So what we have is an attack post based upon the posters opinion and speculation rather than 'FACTS' (500k+ sub).

    And uses the word 'logical'.

    How.....wha..... /facepalm

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by jpnz

    Lets have a look at this post! :)1st paragraph is speculation based upon nothing substantial other than 'I read it on this blog which sourced this totally legit and not shady anonymous internet person's uncle's former husband's roommate!'2nd paragraph is some sort of the posters opinion of 'SWTOR was suppose to kill WoW'.3rd is an attack but uses the word 'logical' in a non-irony way. So what we have is an attack post based upon the posters opinion and speculation rather than 'FACTS' (500k+ sub).And uses the word 'logical'.How.....wha..... /facepalm

    There are times when term "no-brainer" gets down to it's very literal meaning...

  • BLOBtheTROLLBLOBtheTROLL BelgardePosts: 75Member
    Originally posted by Raiyu_Defied

    TR is the biggest failure, no queston.

     

    ToR is pretty high up there, however their biggest failure was relying way too heavily on Story and replayability being huge factors in their game. They wasted so much time and money on the story the rest of the game had to suffer.

     

    for 300 millions nothing in game should suffer, they could have all for that amount of money Story and replayability  and GAMEPLAY and good PVP and good space combat

  • Crazy_StickCrazy_Stick Privacy Preferred, NCPosts: 1,059Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami


    So..."the biggest failure MMO to date" is also second largest MMO on the market. I bet many devs would wish to "fail" as much as SWTOR did.

     

     

     

    Since when is SWTOR the second largest MMO on the market? Based on their own words (EA) I am being generous and estimating their player population at 750K. That would make SWTOR like number 6, just behind Second Life and Runescape, and I am intentionally not including some popular Asian titles as it's harder to get numbers on those. You can check  numbers HERE.

     

  • IstavaanIstavaan CorkPosts: 1,350Member

    Swtor is the biggest failure, because its the biggest IP and it cost the most money to develope.

  • SleepyfishSleepyfish Ashville, NCPosts: 363Member
    Originally posted by Kyleran

    The fall launch window will be perfect.  By then the GW2 shine will have worn off some (don't kid yourself, the market will move on from it as quickly as they do all other titles once they consume its core content) and why not go back and try something else that will be "free".

     

    Don't kid yourself   SWTOR does not matter.

    GW2 might be worried about  a MOP release, but SWTOR is a failure and everyone knows it. They can only hope to retain people like yourself and whoever they can trick into playing a free account, but unless the game quality amazingly changes over night, they wont be around long either. No one who is sane will opt to play a terrible psudo free game when they could be playing a BTP game that is much better. Trying to compare SWTOR to GW2 is like trying to compare Dark and Light  to WOW.

    Also there  is no incentive to play even a free version of SWTOR. Sure someone might fly through storylines but that isn't the core demographic of GW2 anyway, most of them will be casual PVE with constant PVP focus. But even if they do like PVE if they are the kind of person that flies through content they might be done with SWTOR in less that 48 hours.

    On top of that everyone, and I mean Everyone already knows SWTOR is trash. It's not like its a game in Beta with lots of hype anymore, There wont be lines forming to play a game that is already in the MMO Graveyard. People won't get exited over SWTOR any more than they would get exited over a UO Private Server.

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,775Member Rare

    It doesn´t look good, but it is hard to say if things are worse then for Tabula Rasa.

    Initial sales of TORs boxes did bring in a large portion of the development cost unlike TR and TR closed down really fast so I doubt it is as bad. But in EAs eyes it is probably different, they had huge expectations and assumed it would rake in Wow like sums of money.

    So in reality is TR probably the biggest AAA failure, but both WAR and TOR did so much worse than expected that the publishers might see it as the biggest failure ever.

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

    Since when is SWTOR the second largest MMO on the market? 

    Since we compare similar products operating on same market.

    SL is not even a game, it is a virtual world, a social network with 3D interface.
    Runescape is browser F2P game operating on global market.

    You need to compare MMOs with downloadable client operating at western market. Sorry if that wasn't clear in my first post.

  • ariestearieste toronto, ONPosts: 3,299Member Uncommon

    I'm also in the camp of TR and Vanguard being the bigger failures.  TOR still sold over a million and as is active.

     

    On the flipside, TR was at least a good game, albeit a financial flop.  Many people remember TR very fondly and would play it again.  I doubt that too many of its former players are going to remember TOR fondly.

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  • LatronusLatronus Lexington Park, MDPosts: 692Member
    Originally posted by Beanpuie

    Age of Conan, Vanguard and Star Trek Online

     

    I agree with these being bigger. Vanguard alone was hands down a much bigger disaster by far. How quickly people forget the past... I guess that's why we are doomed to keep repeating it.

    image
  • busdriverbusdriver nyPosts: 859Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by busdriver

    Do the math...

     

     

    How do you do math when you do not know what the initial investments, operational and other related costs and revenue are? All you know is that SWTOR will be substantially profitable at 500k subscribers and that currently the game has well over that. So I really wonder what "math" you use?

    Numbers don't have to be exact, good estimates will do just fine. Running costs you can draw from other games that have made them public. Initial investment is way more tricky, hence the wide margin. What they get from each player is fairly easy and accurate with $15/month and about 30% of each box sold + digital distribution.


    Q: You've previously said you need about a half million subscribers to be profitable, is that still the case?
    A: At 500,000 subscribers, we'd break even. At a million, we'd be making a profit but nothing worth writing home about.


    Destined to kill WoW? Says who? Source?

    CEO of EA said something along those lines, but what does it matter? It's obvious from the amount of money poured into this that they were aiming to be #1, how is that even a question?


    What other game released in past years did not lose subscribers after launch in similar pattern?

    You mean 'what other $200+ million game did not lose subs after launch in similar pattern?'

    None.


    Isn't it the other way round and wouldn't it be a failure to ignore and not pursuit an opportunity of F2P conversion to make more money?

    So now you act like F2P is some sort of achievement? They are going F2P because people refuse to pay monthly fee for garbage. It is their only hope of recovering their money back, Tortanic is manning the lifeboats.

    Someone already mentioned ROI. For an investment period this long, any business man would expect a considerable return. Going by that alone, SWTOR is a complete failure.

    And you also have to remember this wiseguy named Lucas who wants his $$$.

  • lifeordinarylifeordinary AgadirPosts: 646Member
    Originally posted by askdaboss
    Originally posted by lifeordinary

    So you are saying that WAR is more successful than SWTOR because it is still P2P? even though SWTOR still hs population somewhere around 500K players and more servers than WAR can ever dream for.

    Is that your logic? F2P = failure? and not take into account over all population and active servers?

    Please, sir... Please... Have you heard of something called "Return On Investment"? I think that's the logic people are using.

    Massive investement, poor return = failure.

    Yes sir i know about returns on investment but MMOS are long term business. SWTOR has been out for what 7 months now? that is too short of a time to except return on 100 million dollar budget. Unrealistic expectations are un realistic.

  • Crazy_StickCrazy_Stick Privacy Preferred, NCPosts: 1,059Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

    Since when is SWTOR the second largest MMO on the market? 

     

    Since we compare similar products operating on same market.

    SL is not even a game, it is a virtual world, a social network with 3D interface.
    Runescape is browser F2P game operating on global market.

    You need to compare MMOs with downloadable client operating at western market. Sorry if that wasn't clear in my first post.

     

    Eh, not to be a jerk but I don't feel it's fair to skip Aion or Lineage from the discussion (both with more paying population than SWTOR globally) just because  they are successful enough to compete in both the East and West. That puts SWTOR at number four. LOL... :)

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Crazy_StickEh, not to be a jerk but I don't feel it's fair to skip Aion or Lineage from the discussion (both with more paying population than SWTOR globally) just because  they are successful enough to compete in both the East and West. That puts SWTOR at number four. LOL... :)

    Cut out eastern numbers from Aion and Lineage and then we can proceed, it will be very quick, I promise :)

  • lifeordinarylifeordinary AgadirPosts: 646Member
    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

    Since when is SWTOR the second largest MMO on the market? 

     

    Since we compare similar products operating on same market.

    SL is not even a game, it is a virtual world, a social network with 3D interface.
    Runescape is browser F2P game operating on global market.

    You need to compare MMOs with downloadable client operating at western market. Sorry if that wasn't clear in my first post.

     

    Eh, not to be a jerk but I don't feel it's fair to skip Aion or Lineage from the discussion (both with more paying population than SWTOR globally) just because  they are successful enough to compete in both the East and West. That puts SWTOR at number four. LOL... :)

    Is SWTOR released in Asia yet? if yes your argument makes sense if not then nope sorry.

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 18,775Member Rare
    Originally posted by busdriver

    ...You mean 'what other $200+ million game did not lose subs after launch in similar pattern?'

    None....

    EA said it was their most expensive game ever, which means it cost more than $115M to make, that is the only official source about it as far as I know so stop inventing or guessing things, it makes your whole post seems fishy even if you otherwise are right.

  • IstavaanIstavaan CorkPosts: 1,350Member
    Originally posted by Gdemami

     


    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

    Eh, not to be a jerk but I don't feel it's fair to skip Aion or Lineage from the discussion (both with more paying population than SWTOR globally) just because  they are successful enough to compete in both the East and West. That puts SWTOR at number four. LOL... :)

     

    Cut eastern numbers from Aion and Lineage and then we can proceed, it will be very quick, I promise :)

    yet no one ever cuts eastern numbers from wow, love the hypocrisy.

  • busdriverbusdriver nyPosts: 859Member
    Originally posted by jpnz
    Originally posted by busdriver
     

    Do the math and explain how EA has made back their initial investment (200-500 million dollars) + running costs, then we stop calling it a failure.

    And while you're at it, explain how a game that was destined to kill WoW, but has now lost at least 60% of its playerbase and heading F2P... all that in less than a year, is not to be considered a failure?

    Fanboism sure is a weird thing, it's like a virus that switches off that part of human brain where logical thinking resides.

    Lets have a look at this post! :)

    1st paragraph is speculation based upon nothing substantial other than 'I read it on this blog which sourced this totally legit and not shady anonymous internet person's uncle's former husband's roommate!'

    2nd paragraph is some sort of the posters opinion of 'SWTOR was suppose to kill WoW'.

    3rd is an attack but uses the word 'logical' in a non-irony way.

     

    So what we have is an attack post based upon the posters opinion and speculation rather than 'FACTS' (500k+ sub).

    And uses the word 'logical'.

    How.....wha..... /facepalm


    Lets have a look at this post! :)

    - Ignores the questions asked and focuses on other things instead.

    - Tries to use funny words here and there to fill the otherwise useless post.

    - Throws around a subnumber, but ignores the time EA needs those subs to break even.

    - Uses a word FACT around a number given by one of the most distrusted gaming companies in the industry.

    Keep it up!

  • GdemamiGdemami Beau VallonPosts: 9,045Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Istavaan

    yet no one ever cuts eastern numbers from wow, love the hypocrisy.

    Well, WoW has so fat market share that 5M or 10m makes no difference :)

  • NadiaNadia Topsham, MainePosts: 11,866Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Istavaan
    Originally posted by Gdemami

    Originally posted by Crazy_Stick

    I don't feel it's fair to skip Aion or Lineage from the discussion (both with more paying population than SWTOR globally) just because  they are successful enough to compete in both the East and West. That puts SWTOR at number four. LOL... :)

    Cut eastern numbers from Aion and Lineage and then we can proceed, it will be very quick, I promise :)

    yet no one ever cuts eastern numbers from wow, love the hypocrisy.

    but.. but.. 10 millionzzz

    agree, considering around 60% of WOWs subs are from the East

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