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Alright let's do this - Sales predictions after two months

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  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321

     I would guess 2 million first quarter

    I miss DAoC

  • JackdogJackdog Member UncommonPosts: 6,321
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    the game hasnt been released yet. preorders are not paid off most places you put 5 dollars down

    I preordered through Arenanet and the full amount was deducted, I was surprised becasue I expected what you posted. Thankfully I enjoyed the BWE so I am not worried about it

    I miss DAoC

  • lotapartylotaparty Member Posts: 514

    5 million

  • Lord.BachusLord.Bachus Member RarePosts: 9,686
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    the game hasnt been released yet. preorders are not paid off most places you put 5 dollars down

    I preordered through Arenanet and the full amount was deducted, I was surprised becasue I expected what you posted. Thankfully I enjoyed the BWE so I am not worried about it

    Then you prepurchased and you payd the full amount of money.

     

    Firegamer seems to miss the point that from the 1.4M sales so far, most are prepurchases, that paid the full amount of money upfront.  Next to that, the game is way to good to worry about people canceling pre orders.

    Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)

  • lotapartylotaparty Member Posts: 514
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    the game hasnt been released yet. preorders are not paid off most places you put 5 dollars down

    I preordered through Arenanet and the full amount was deducted, I was surprised becasue I expected what you posted. Thankfully I enjoyed the BWE so I am not worried about it

    he is not talking about offical website buying option .he is talking about retail stores .most of them are giving option to pre order

  • OldManFunkOldManFunk Member Posts: 894
    Originally posted by Jackdog
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    the game hasnt been released yet. preorders are not paid off most places you put 5 dollars down

    I preordered through Arenanet and the full amount was deducted, I was surprised becasue I expected what you posted. Thankfully I enjoyed the BWE so I am not worried about it

    That probably means you prepurchased instead of preordered. The difference is you get beta access and a 3 day headstart (we get to start to play on Saturday instead of Monday for preorders and Tuesday for people who buy GW2 when it goes live).

  • firegamer31firegamer31 Member UncommonPosts: 26

    just wanted to let people know that my post arent intended to flame or discredit gw2.... i wont be playing it because its no longer the style mmo im into. its not at all a bad game but as with every overhyped mmo in the past couple years many people flock to the.....best mmo ever.....will topple wow and be the best ever....threads.....its been outhyped if thats even possible lol... as with all other mmos they will retain a core who love it more than any they have played i personally just dont see it reaching above 2m actives because its kinda the same tried and true method with a few minor tweaks....game on friends congrats that its finally almost here for you guys

  • firegamer31firegamer31 Member UncommonPosts: 26

    thats your opinion lord bach as with most of the recent mmos millions have bought them look at swtor but we are talking about people who remain active hense the active account predictions......a game can sell 4-5m but theres no way in hades that they will all stay and play constantly is where my 1.4m actives prediction as well as others predictions are.......also they are our guesses you are clearly a gw2 fanboy and will fight for the game to no end best game ever yadda yadda and if it is for you fine so be it and even if it only retains 1.4m thats pretty darn succesful in this mmo market

  • vmopedvmoped Member Posts: 1,708
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    just wanted to let people know that my post arent intended to flame or discredit gw2.... i wont be playing it because its no longer the style mmo im into. its not at all a bad game but as with every overhyped mmo in the past couple years many people flock to the.....best mmo ever.....will topple wow and be the best ever....threads.....its been outhyped if thats even possible lol... as with all other mmos they will retain a core who love it more than any they have played i personally just dont see it reaching above 2m actives because its kinda the same tried and true method with a few minor tweaks....game on friends congrats that its finally almost here for you guys

     

    While I do not agree with you, I understand your viewpoint. I have played all AAA mmo's since meridian 59 and quiet a few small projects and GW2 has a atmosphere and community I have not experienced in a longtime. The lack of gear grind for advancement is one of the key differences from most mmo's. I also like the up and down leveling to keep all content relevant and worthwhile. Good luck and happy hunting in your game of choice mate!

    On topic, I believe the game will see at least 2 million in sales by the end of the year.

    Cheers!

    MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S

  • vmopedvmoped Member Posts: 1,708
    Originally posted by firegamer31

    thats your opinion lord bach as with most of the recent mmos millions have bought them look at swtor but we are talking about people who remain active hense the active account predictions......a game can sell 4-5m but theres no way in hades that they will all stay and play constantly is where my 1.4m actives prediction as well as others predictions are.......also they are our guesses you are clearly a gw2 fanboy and will fight for the game to no end best game ever yadda yadda and if it is for you fine so be it and even if it only retains 1.4m thats pretty darn succesful in this mmo market

     

    it's a B2P game. Box sales are important since ther is no sub. The only impact of retention is for the cash shop and based on market trends only a minority uses the cash shop in any CS game anyways.. If someone buys the game and does not play then that is less server usage but Anet still got paid. Keep in mind personal attacks are against forum policy, and there is little benefit arguing semantics.

    Cheers!

    MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen Member UncommonPosts: 2,483

    2-3 million is a reasonable number for the first 2 months for GW2.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • firegamer31firegamer31 Member UncommonPosts: 26

    that wasnt a personal attack lol sorry if it came across as one im a fanboy too just not of gw2 nor did i once knock the game i can see why many like it just saying our fanboydom sometimes gets into the way of true reality we all want to believe our mmo is gonna be the most successful ever unfortunatly wow set the bar too high and came at a time in gaming that will probably never be replicated unless an mmo comes out that shatters the old way we play mmos

  • ResetgunResetgun Member Posts: 471

    If we are talking about physical box sales - maybe 1m (EA's Star Wars sold like 1.5m and they advertised much more, WOW has sold something like 4.7m boxes).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_PC_video_games

    "I know I said this was my last post, but you my friend are a idiotic moron." -Shadow4482

  • MrlogicMrlogic Member Posts: 178

    A wild guess would be that after two months they will have sold around 3 million but then again, who the heck knows. Needless to say, Guild Wars 2 WILL be a huge success! 

  • mindw0rkmindw0rk Member UncommonPosts: 1,356

    3 mil first month

  • BadSpockBadSpock Member UncommonPosts: 7,979

    I think 1-2 million in first few weeks, and the reviews and word of mouth after 3-4 weeks is going to catch on and by Christmas we'll see 3-4 million purchases.

    After that, who knows?

    Depends on how aggressive Anet is after launch with new content and patches and how long the current content "lasts" before people start to get that "time to move on" feeling.

    Of course MoP release later this year will have some effect on ALL MMORPGs...

    I think GW2 is going to be installed on a LOT of hard drives, even if players take a break for a while and only come back for new content and such or take a break to play another game.

    GW2 is far, far more "mass appeal" friendly than GW1 was, so 6-7 million in the first year or so is not unrealistic.

    How many stick around and keep playing long term is anyone's guess, and we'll probably NEVER know as there are no subs to track.

    We'll have to look at server load and such, but Anet recently proved they can slide player caps up and down at will without having to reboot the servers even, so they'll likely (although somewhat insidious) make sure no matter what the populations are they'll show as medium-high.

     

  • hikaru77hikaru77 Member UncommonPosts: 1,123
    Originally posted by gestalt11

    Throw your hat in the ring and make a predication.

     

    Total box sales after two months including pre-purchases.

     

    I am gonna say 4 million.

     

     

     

    Less than 2 mill. The panda expansion is coming a few days after gw2 release, i dont play WoW, i dont care about a Pokemon expansion but we should be realistic, everyone here knows whats happen with a WoW exp. 

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Member, Newbie CommonPosts: 4,990

    Two months? Tough call but I would say at least 3+ million

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • dellirious13dellirious13 Member Posts: 205
    Originally posted by hikaru77
    Originally posted by gestalt11

    Throw your hat in the ring and make a predication.

     

    Total box sales after two months including pre-purchases.

     

    I am gonna say 4 million.

     

     

     

    Less than 2 mill. The panda expansion is coming a few days after gw2 release, i dont play WoW, i dont care about a Pokemon expansion but we should be realistic, everyone here knows whats happen with a WoW exp. 

    Only problem is MoP is alienating many original WoW player. My guild has over 100 unique people in it (300+ counting alts, etc)...Im waiting for my free game time from selling in game gold for game cards to finish (in March), and the times I log on at peak times, we have maybe 3-4 people on...ever. Some people quit MMOs for good atm because of MoP, some went to TSW, some awaiting GW2, some to FPSes and such. We were mostly players who have played since vanilla or BC....and I'm sure there are many people that share our feelings. MoP is like a slap in the face, unfortunately.

  • suu141suu141 Member Posts: 249
    Originally posted by dellirious13
    Originally posted by hikaru77

    Less than 2 mill. The panda expansion is coming a few days after gw2 release, i dont play WoW, i dont care about a Pokemon expansion but we should be realistic, everyone here knows whats happen with a WoW exp. 

    Only problem is MoP is alienating many original WoW player. My guild has over 100 unique people in it (300+ counting alts, etc)...Im waiting for my free game time from selling in game gold for game cards to finish (in March), and the times I log on at peak times, we have maybe 3-4 people on...ever. Some people quit MMOs for good atm because of MoP, some went to TSW, some awaiting GW2, some to FPSes and such. We were mostly players who have played since vanilla or BC....and I'm sure there are many people that share our feelings. MoP is like a slap in the face, unfortunately.

     

    I agree, MoP is gonna end up turning WoW into a Disney game or "Toontown clone"(If it isn't already) just to cover up thier new black market.

     

    I'm more worried about when SWTOR goes F2P in a few months(just a little) effecting sales.

     

    "When you're born you're naked, when you die you're naked again, and in-between all we do is work, eat, and play MMOs." ~Forum Warrior #141

  • ChuvarHramaChuvarHrama Member UncommonPosts: 88
    Originally posted by minime2

    More than 9000 .

    It's Over 9000... Just sayin.

    image

  • LokomotivLokomotiv Member Posts: 106

    More than 800k...

  • BigAndShinyBigAndShiny Member Posts: 176

    Hey, no offense meant, but Aion had 900,000 pre-orders before launch.     SW:TOR had over a million too.  

    Also, GW2 is aimed mainly at the core MMO playerbase, rather than those new to the genre.  Therefore it's possible that the pre-purchases are more like 70-80% of sales instead of the usual 20-30%

  • UOvetUOvet Member Posts: 514

    I would be more worried about active players after the first few months. I can see a lot of things turning people off pretty quickly.

     

    People like their shinies, people don't like waiting in WvW lines. I mean, those are just two main things. You could go on about optimisation among other things. You better hope GW2 doesn't "succeed" like D3 did. Sure, it sold a ton..but..the game is pretty horrible if you ask most, especially considering it took them like 7 years to make it. What a joke...

  • JustsomenoobJustsomenoob Member UncommonPosts: 880

    5 million.

     

    Think of all the disappointed Diablo 3 players that are going to break down and buy this game, even the ones that bash it and haven't even played it yet.

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