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Tor down to 200k to 300k players Left

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  • ktanner3ktanner3 lakeland, FLPosts: 4,074Member Common
    Originally posted by lizardbones

     



    I wanted to come up with a counter point or some sort of argument here but there are literally Wall Street Trader Gamers who both manage EA's stock and play their games who said the stock was worth less because of the players SWToR lost by March. EA's stock woes can be directly attributed to SWToR's recent performance.

    ** edit **
    It just seems like such a dumb thing to literally bank your companies future on one product when you have many products...dozens even.
    I agree. With all the titles EA has under their belt it doesn't make much sense to "shoot the moon" like this.

    Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  • xion12121xion12121 Palm Harbor, FLPosts: 119Member

              Yes yes and the Grizzly bears with laserz are beaming their lazers at the SWOTR players for being so gullible to still play this horrid game!!!      LOL

    I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....

  • Esquire1980Esquire1980 Stillwater, OKPosts: 529Member
    Originally posted by Aredyl
    Originally posted by snikwad
    Originally posted by Rockhide
    Originally posted by MadDemon64
    Originally posted by aesperus
    Originally posted by Fennris

    To the people calling SWTOR a financial failure/flop:  where are you getting your numbers from?

    The game isn't as successful as 1 or 2 other MMOs, yes, and it doesn't do what many players on forums like these seem to "need".  But those factors do not a "flop" make, right?

    It's been generally viewed as a poor investment. Is that enough fail for you?

    When you take the most expensive MMO 'ever' to make, and roughly break even, that is not a success. On any lvl.

    Actually, it does.  If it manages to cover the costs of production, then it is a success.  If it more than covers the cost of production, it is an even better success.  If it does not cover the costs of production, then it is not a success.

    Since you have admitted that SWTOR sold enough copies to cover the costs of production, then you have admitted that the game is a success.  It is not as successful as WoW, but since more money was not spent in creating SWTOR than was recovered through sales, then it was successful.

    Economics 101.

     

    If you're going to throw "Economics 101" in somebody's face then you would do well to mention both the relevant underlying assumption of microeconomic theory -- that firms are profit-maximizing entiities -- as well as the fundamental concept of opportunity cost: the value of everything forgone by choosing to produce option A instead of devoting those resources to produce a better (or next-best) option B. 

     

    In Econ 101 the real "cost of production," the very term you use, includes opportunity cost.  Relevant chapter of an econ textbook:

     

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/10324747/7-How-Firms-Make-Decisions-Profit-Maximization

     

     

    For comparison, $60 * 3 games * 3 million (conservatively) copies sold = $540 million in gross revenue generated by three hypothetical single-player RPGs that could have been made with the resources spent on TOR.  With those same resources TOR has generated approximately $60 * 3 million copies + $15/month subscription * 7 months * average number of subscribers (let's say a million) = $285 million in gross revenue.  Special edition sales will roughly be balanced out by sale prices in the months after release for both options. 

     

    Just to be fair, your $60 figure is off.  Retailers sell the game(s) for $60 they make X% mark up when THEY sell it to the end user for $60.00. I have no idea what the profit margins are for the retailers but clealry they make enough to warrant selling them. 

    Yes, retailers do make a % off of each game.  We could adjust the numbers for both games - estimating 10% for each game.  

     ($60 - (10% of $60)) * 3 games * 1 million per game = $162 million

    ($60 - (10% of $60)) * 3 million copies + $15/month subscription * 5 months (removing the free 30 days for both the boxed copy and the one given out around april) * 900k mil avg subs = $213.3 mil

    Two different changes to this: 

    1.) I changed both formulas to reflect 3 million games sold.

    2.) I changed the number of months subs have been paying.

    3.) I changed the number of avg subs to reflect the "free month" times that took place during higher numbers.

    I could guess more numbers out of my rear to reflect the average cost per month on a sub (purchased at a store where the retailer gets a cut, multi month plans, etc). 

    I could speculate costs associated with maintaining the servers, staff employed to handle questions and problems with the additional billing and problems associated with games, and the additional beancounters to handle the monthly subs directly.

     

    So back to Econ 101 for everybody:  we are guessing possible revenue based on sales and subs, but revenue does not equal profit.   So, unless someone can provide semi-accurate numbers on production costs for large-scale games along with maintenance costs on servers capable of hosting such a large MMO, the picture won't be complete enough to make an educated guess on which could be profitable.

    Your probably a bit off with your numbers still.  I own a manufactuing buisiness and our best selling product is sold to wholesalers, for 2.83 (or less depending upon quantity ordered) who resale for 4.00-4.25.  The product then goes to contractors who mark up the product again about another 20%-25%+.  The consumer ends up paying around 5.31 or more time it all is said and done with.

    Your 10% is a bit low in the equation dept.  The standard retail markups I see every day are more like 75% to 100%.  I would guess that a 60.00 box nets EA somewhere around the 30.00-35.00 mark.  And it was disclosed that TOR sold 2.4 million boxes, 1.7 subs at launch, 1.3 subs at the 4 month mark, and now with only 26 servers, (the same exact amount that SWG had), probably the best guesstimate is SWG's 300K subs at it's heyday.

     

  • ZippyZippy NY, NYPosts: 1,412Member

    as of 7/22 on Tor Staus we can see the results of the merger.

    Tor  gained players everyday on ToR status for the past 5 weeks.  The merger has left ToR with 16 very healthy servers (12 NA and 4 Euro).  The daily gains for weeks has left them with servers that should remain healthy for quite awhile.  The last two days they have been shown to have lost players and likely that will continue and grow larger larger each day.  But given the size of the population of the 16 servers now Tor should be able to sustain a month or two of decline before any of these 16 servers become in jeopardy of dying.

    Overall the gain was suprising and it allows BW a larger winow of time to improve the game before the entire population leaves.  With 16 pretty full servers they likely have 150k-250k total players left.  Which looks a lot better than where they were before the merger.

    For a comparison EQ2, after they did their merger down to 16 servers, peaked at 250 subs but for the most part not getting above 200k.

    While my orginal post was critisized and I agree with some of the criticism as to projecting actual numbers but from what we have seen with the mergers it seems to have validated my orginal post as to the amount of players, state of the game andthe  health of the servers left. If anything my OP overestimated the number of players still playing.  More likely ToR was down around 100-150k players before the merger.  

    Mainly what one can see from a site like Tor Status are trends and the health of servers along with momentum in gains and losses.  We can project players based on X number on each server. Although that number is debateable as it would be anywhere from 5k to 20k per server depending on the game, the server size, the health of the server and how much the average player logs in.  What generally happens with a server whether its Tor Staus Rift status or whichever is very soon after a server declines to 1.4 or 1.5 there is a mass exodus. In Rifts case it seems to swifter as players can transfer to any server whenever they wan for free so you often see multiple  guilds move one after the other over a few days.  While not as volatile as Rift it still holds true in ToR when a server declines below 1.3 the drop to 1.0 and dead status  usually happens within 2-3 weeks.

    In regards to the post above about the return on a game sold.  The traditional rule of thumb on a video game is the developer gets 25% back of the retail sales price.  That number has gone up in recent years with digital sales where the % is a lot higher.  About a year or so ago MMOs moved past the 50% threshold where over 50% of pre-orders now come form digital online sales. Which greatly increaes the return to a developer.  But all in all i would be shocked if BW/EA got more than a 40% return from total sales. Which would be about $57 million from total box sales.

  • ThebigbopperThebigbopper melbournePosts: 114Member
    Originally posted by Kakkzooka

    I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.

     

    Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.

     This game is a good game and tell me the game that is better? There is no MMORPG out at the moment that is better except WOW but i feel that was in the past.  Falling numbers or not i think it still is the second most populated game of it's type. GW2 will beat it but even then it is free to play so it should. 

     If population numbers tell a story then there is a hell of a lot of games with a worse problem.

     It definately dropped the ball and could have a lot more players now but, it still is competitive with any game thats listed on this website.

     C;mon all you SWTOR haters. what game is better?  What game had a flawless release with more content at its start and has had larger numbers play it? Rift would be the only one that is close i would feel. 

     

     

  • Esquire1980Esquire1980 Stillwater, OKPosts: 529Member
    Originally posted by Thebigbopper
    Originally posted by Kakkzooka

    I'm just wondering when the major review sites will come out of the woodwork and actually write honest articles about how shitty the game really is and how poorly it's performed, instead of perpetually shoveling bullshit.

     

    Probably when the bribe money runs out. That's my best guess.

     This game is a good game and tell me the game that is better? There is no MMORPG out at the moment that is better except WOW but i feel that was in the past.  Falling numbers or not i think it still is the second most populated game of it's type. GW2 will beat it but even then it is free to play so it should. 

     If population numbers tell a story then there is a hell of a lot of games with a worse problem.

     It definately dropped the ball and could have a lot more players now but, it still is competitive with any game thats listed on this website.

     C;mon all you SWTOR haters. what game is better?  What game had a flawless release with more content at its start and has had larger numbers play it? Rift would be the only one that is close i would feel. 

     

     

    I'm more of a self described TOR-dissappoint-er instead of a "hater", but I believe I'd have to answer your question, personaly, with a question.  Do you want the entire list or just the top 10?  Accepting that "better" is an opinion that may CHANGE from person to person.

    I left TOR to go back to STO, in fact.  Why?  "Better" space content, a boat-load more content at end-game, more and "better" PVP opportunities,  No specials I can not use in PVE or PVP, no 4 tool bars full of specials that I have to go entirely thru to find out which ones do basicly nothing and which ones to put in rotation as they actualy matter to the class, no CC fest PVP/PVE,  no having to have a seperate PVP stat/suit/load-out ( I use the same items in PVP as PVE), fully populated "worlds" (even tho it's F2P), major content dumps from developers (we just got fleet starbases and fleet shipyards of sorts), Qs that "pop" within 60 secs, and basicly a lot more "fun" and with as major an IP.

    All this in spite of end-game gear grinds, F2P with a cash shop, highly instanced, the lagging Cryptic engine (not really much "better" than the hero engine), a past "NGE" for the F2P conversion, and all the other faults that go along with the game.

    SWG was "better" and yes I'm still playing that as well.  Housing, deco, open worlds, unlocked alpha profession with penaltys, long term goals, 32 different profs, crafting system that is intricate and actualy matters at end game, no WoWified talent system, still have glo-bats, and last but not least "living" in the world instead of playing in theirs.

    I even tried WoW as a few of our TOR guildies went back to WoW and talked me into trying it as being a 7+ year vet of SWG I guess i would of qualified as a "WoW hater" and got a pal to 63 before I really got bored of just questing.  What I found there was a game very highly polished, massive content, open worlds with exploration, story that I had to read instead of watch a movie on, very well balanced with PVE (the toon there felt more like the "hero" that TOR touted before launch than the guardian that has to beat on even trash mobs forever, a tank class that can actualy heal as well (what a novel concept - of all the things that Dallas Dickerson had to copy from WoW for his BioWare "perfect NGE", why not the paladin class?) before or after the guard DPS NERFs), and basicly very good for what it was.  It just seems that questing is not quite enough for my playstyle and individual tastes.

    As for the other WoW clones you ask about, I wouldn't know.  I tend to stay away from WoW clones like the plague.  If your going to playstyle WoW, might as well play WoW.  It has more content, 8 years post launch, a larger dev team, more polish, more end game item grinds (if that's what your into), just works better, and generaly just "more and better" of everything.

    As for launch(s).  It really does not matter if a game starts with 200+ servers (that's basicly due to pre-launch hype instead of actual gameplay) and then goes down in 6 months time to 23 servers (you really can't count the 3 asian servers anylonger as they seem to be mostly dead now and the other ones are no longer "full" or even "very heavy" anylonger).  The loss in playerbase seems to be directly attributable to actual gameplay (or the lack of it).

    Hope this answers your questions.

  • ThebigbopperThebigbopper melbournePosts: 114Member

     Well what you say is better i bet would be hotly contested by some, i imagine there would be Eve,Rift etc etc but it's all personal taste. I bet there are relevant arguments about what they are missing or what they did wrong as well. I never Played STO or SWG and they may be better games...... I'll lay money down there will be people who would try to shoot you down in flames for saying those games are good .

     When you get people complaining about biased reviews and calling a game shitty then he is blaming them for having an opinion differant to his own.  He is entitled to have an opinion but what gives him the right to dictate what other people should feel? I think a lot of people liked SWTOR that left it, but they just felt after maxing there was not enough to keep them subbing...fair enough

     What ever anyone names here they are bound to get shot down or called out by someone who personally hates the game. What i do not get is why they attack people on their own game forums for liking the game. I bet i get a lot of emnity for posting what i have typed here. Yeah i like the game, some people actually do like it even if you do not...get over it.

     Just thought i should add. I play on the 1 of the 3 "Asian servers" they are actually Oceanic and in Australia. These servers are not dead and neither are the remaining servers of the U.S ones. The U.S ones during peak are sometimes full, very heavy or heavy quite often except off peak times. I will clarify that i am not saying the game has not lost a lot of numbers but after cutting servers the numbers on each server are healthy.

     

     

  • Garvon3Garvon3 Worcester, MAPosts: 2,898Member

    This game had the biggest budget of any MMORPG in history.

    It was made using one of the biggest IPs in history.

    It was made by one of the best (SINGLEPLAYER) dev studios.

     

    If it were a good game, it would NOT be firing people and limping along bleeding subs.

    It just wasn't made very well, didn't do enough to make it stand out, and above all... Bioware had the delusion that they could make a singleplayer game, charge a monthly fee, and churn out enough content to keep people playing.

    The game has no community, no social side, no reason to keep playing.

  • ThorqemadaThorqemada BerlinPosts: 1,277Member Uncommon

    I played DA:O and liked it very much but even in this game the first signs were there that it is not all good at Bioware.
    DA2 was a disapointment, ME...i dont play it but my friends are upset.
    I would not even call SWTOR a good single player rpg.
    Understand me right - it is probably not bad for a srpg or coop rpg but its by far not the standard i expect from a developer like Bioware.

    Contrary to it Bethesda has delivered a Masterpiece with Skyrim, though even that has signs of some degradation, but in the overall picture they do not matter and it deserves to be called "Best RPG in a Decade".

    I dont care about SWTOR, its numbers, i only hope that the industry will learn form it.
    Like AoC SWTOR was born as one legged elephant, do not make the mistake to blame the working leg, blame the missing ones!

    PS: And mmo elephants can have more than 4 legs ;)

    "Torquemada... do not implore him for compassion. Torquemada... do not beg him for forgiveness. Torquemada... do not ask him for mercy. Let's face it, you can't Torquemada anything!"

    MWO Music Video - What does the Mech say: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF6HYNqCDLI
    Johnny Cash - The Man Comes Around: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0x2iwK0BKM

  • ThebigbopperThebigbopper melbournePosts: 114Member

    It is a good game to some people...what is a good or bad game is subjective! A lot of people did not like it or could not keep playing "not denying". I am telling you now that i could call out most games listed on this website as fails for one reason or another.

     If you look at every game on this forum, a great many people will start subjects of "this is wrong or failing numbers etc" or argue if anyone says anything positive about any of the games.  Hell, WOW had huge numbers and what is considered "success" and yet it has had more vitriol than any game probably on thse forums.

     So numbers, no numbers you name it, any game.......anything that ever has, is or will be is a failure on this website.  Guild Wars 2 will be a victim in the end too.....there can be no victor.... because here, even if you win via player count you still lose.... Yet if you do not have player numbers that will be used against you as well.

     I guess mediocrity is the real winner here...maybe you can get through pretty much unnoticed at all.

     

     

     

  • SandboxSandbox SwedenPosts: 295Member
    Originally posted by Thebigbopper

    It is a good game to some people...what is a good or bad game is subjective! A lot of people did not like it or could not keep playing "not denying". I am telling you now that i could call out most games listed on this website as fails for one reason or another.

     If you look at every game on this forum, a great many people will start subjects of "this is wrong or failing numbers etc" or argue if anyone says anything positive about any of the games.  Hell, WOW had huge numbers and what is considered "success" and yet it has had more vitriol than any game probably on thse forums.

     So numbers, no numbers you name it, any game.......anything that ever has, is or will be is a failure on this website.  Guild Wars 2 will be a victim in the end too.....there can be no victor.... because here, even if you win via player count you still lose.... Yet if you do not have player numbers that will be used against you as well.

     I guess mediocrity is the real winner here...maybe you can get through pretty much unnoticed at all.

     

     

     

    Then, if I may use some sarcasm, I can give you the same advise as the Biodrones gives people with opinions they dislike;

    "This forum is not targeted at you"

    I hope you see how constructive this is?

  • Esquire1980Esquire1980 Stillwater, OKPosts: 529Member
    Originally posted by Thebigbopper

     Well what you say is better i bet would be hotly contested by some, i imagine there would be Eve,Rift etc etc but it's all personal taste. I bet there are relevant arguments about what they are missing or what they did wrong as well. I never Played STO or SWG and they may be better games...... I'll lay money down there will be people who would try to shoot you down in flames for saying those games are good .

     When you get people complaining about biased reviews and calling a game shitty then he is blaming them for having an opinion differant to his own.  He is entitled to have an opinion but what gives him the right to dictate what other people should feel? I think a lot of people liked SWTOR that left it, but they just felt after maxing there was not enough to keep them subbing...fair enough

     What ever anyone names here they are bound to get shot down or called out by someone who personally hates the game. What i do not get is why they attack people on their own game forums for liking the game. I bet i get a lot of emnity for posting what i have typed here. Yeah i like the game, some people actually do like it even if you do not...get over it.

     Just thought i should add. I play on the 1 of the 3 "Asian servers" they are actually Oceanic and in Australia. These servers are not dead and neither are the remaining servers of the U.S ones. The U.S ones during peak are sometimes full, very heavy or heavy quite often except off peak times. I will clarify that i am not saying the game has not lost a lot of numbers but after cutting servers the numbers on each server are healthy.

     

     

    Oh, /agree with "better" is completly subjective.  There are many who "hate" on STO as well and I called out just some of the faults with STO in the above.  SWG had it's own "haters" mostly due to the CHANGES that SOE made to the game to try and "WoWify" the complexities of the original SWG gameplay.  They made 3 of these attempts, CU, NGE, and C6CD trying to draw those WoW players away.  All of these attempts have the same conclusion as the attempt at making a Star Wars WoW clone with TOR.  Depleating playerbase, very angry vocal "haters", and a reputation right up there with spoiled molded potato salad.

    Could they "fix" TOR enough for me to come back?  Surely!  But, to be honest, it almost would require another NGE to do it and that would be as fair to the existing TOR playerbase as the original 1 was to SOE patrons altho in this case, they could tact on all the CHANGES that it would take to regain my sub.  I'm sitting here with 2 150.00 boxes as the wife and I both pre-ordered and got each other a large box for anniversary presents. 

    BioWare made a very nice leveling system and then, it appears, just tried to tack on some end-game grinds and it really, really shows.  When asked the question of end-game before launch, they replied "re-roll".  They knew the problems, they simply chose to disregard them as they just knew they made the "perfect NGE".  Another point that really bothers me to no end is the specific developers that are associated with the project.  A bunch of these guys were hired from SOE Austin and they are directly responsible for the original NGE to SWG.  It seems they kept ALL their mindsets in the move and are operating TOR the exact same way they operated the NGE.  "It's great, ask us, we'll tell you, if you don't like what we done, you've got the perverbial tin-foil hat on, and we just won't talk to you anylonger".  This is beyond hubris, it's complete and utter arrogance.  However, it seems that the good Drs are now rectifing that problem and starting to let a few of these guys go.  There are some more in that lead dev dept. that this is needed as well.  New blood and creativity can only be a good thing for TOR.

    You asked what was "better".  And even with ALL the problems associated with WoW, STO, and SWG, I can honestly state those are "better" IMHO.  I'm sure EVE players would have their own opinions and I would imagine you'll see that mentioned as well.  EVE, with only 26 origin servers left iN TOR, could very well be larger than TOR right now.  SWG had 26 servers also and the numbers released via SOE, in SWG's hayday, was 300,000 subs top.  So, I would imagine that TOR is somewhere around that mark with the same amount of servers, altho SWG had server capps well above the 4K mark that TORstatus has figured out.  BTW, even the TORstatus lady who is keeping track says she doesn't know whats going on with the drop in population to the asian pacific servers.  But, we shouldn't have long to wait till the EA investor calls go out and we should know for sure then.  If they now refuse to give numbers to their investors, you can be well assured that the number is dismal at best.

    If you would like to try STO, look me up,  Oamore@Esquire and I can get you started, in a great "fleet" with older (over age 30 players), and it's F2P.

  • Loke666Loke666 MalmöPosts: 17,949Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Thebigbopper

     This game is a good game and tell me the game that is better? There is no MMORPG out at the moment that is better except WOW but i feel that was in the past.  Falling numbers or not i think it still is the second most populated game of it's type. GW2 will beat it but even then it is free to play so it should. 

     If population numbers tell a story then there is a hell of a lot of games with a worse problem.

     It definately dropped the ball and could have a lot more players now but, it still is competitive with any game thats listed on this website.

     C;mon all you SWTOR haters. what game is better?  What game had a flawless release with more content at its start and has had larger numbers play it? Rift would be the only one that is close i would feel. 

    The problem is not that TOR is bad, it does what it does good, which is KOTOR but larger and you can team up with your friends at times.

    The problem is that that ain´t enough for most people wanting to pay monthly fees for it. The "massive" in massive multiplayer roleplaying game is rather important for people to decide to pay their monthly fees.

    So either the game need to focus a lot more on social and PvP content or it needs to stop charging monthly fees for it.

    That is why DDO failed as P2P game as well but works fine as F2P.

  • Sora2810Sora2810 New Columbia, PAPosts: 567Member

    EA doesn't believe in 'saving' franchises. They dump, and move on while the body's still warm. TSW's out now, why should EA care about SWTOR. Some smiles, some handshakes, and then heading home to bed funcom.

    Played - M59, EQOA, EQ, EQ2, PS, SWG[Favorite], DAoC, UO, RS, MXO, CoH/CoV, TR, FFXI, FoM, WoW, Eve, Rift, SWTOR, TSW.
    Playing - PS2, AoW, GW2

  • ThebigbopperThebigbopper melbournePosts: 114Member
    Originally posted by Sandbox
    Originally posted by Thebigbopper

    It is a good game to some people...what is a good or bad game is subjective! A lot of people did not like it or could not keep playing "not denying". I am telling you now that i could call out most games listed on this website as fails for one reason or another.

     If you look at every game on this forum, a great many people will start subjects of "this is wrong or failing numbers etc" or argue if anyone says anything positive about any of the games.  Hell, WOW had huge numbers and what is considered "success" and yet it has had more vitriol than any game probably on thse forums.

     So numbers, no numbers you name it, any game.......anything that ever has, is or will be is a failure on this website.  Guild Wars 2 will be a victim in the end too.....there can be no victor.... because here, even if you win via player count you still lose.... Yet if you do not have player numbers that will be used against you as well.

     I guess mediocrity is the real winner here...maybe you can get through pretty much unnoticed at all.

     

     

     

    Then, if I may use some sarcasm, I can give you the same advise as the Biodrones gives people with opinions they dislike;

    "This forum is not targeted at you"

    I hope you see how constructive this is?


      If you are saying that that a lot of posts on thse forums are unconstructive and are serving little purpose to what  the subject is.......i am with you 100 percent.

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