Originally posted by SpottyGekko If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game. So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
LOL !! the game is already made -- 300k subs paying $15 per month is actually RECOVERING their initial investments. the game is done with the expensive initial investment, now is when they MAKE that money back and 300k is a healthy profit for a MMO. try making some sense when you talk. if they got 50k players, then yes keeping it up and running could be considered a loss. But at this point, any MMO will make a profit off 2-300k subs. give us a break.
I'm delighted that this game failed, i hate EA and what they stand for as a company.
I didnt want the game to fail per se, but I didnt like that SWG was shut down bascially for this game and this is what we get.... Also its yet another in a long line of MMOs that is so incredibly overhyped that there is no way anyone should ever perorder a game without playing it first.
They wont shut down SWTOR, they keep WAR going and it cant possibly have more players then TOR.
WAR does not have a huge IP/license fee associated with it.
The only way this game will stay going longterm, is if the licensing fee is re-negotiated at some point. It was not foreseen that the population of this game was going to collapse so quickly, and the "deal" with LA all but certainly reflects that. That original deal has to change.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game. So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
Remember they have to be as "surprised" as us when more factual numbers are released. Even then there will be multiple cloak and dagger approaches to finding out..
Expect some "delays" with the whole shut down. An attempt to maintain face..
PM before you report at least or you could just block.
If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
Remember they have to be as "surprised" as us when more factual numbers are released. Even then there will be multiple cloak and dagger approaches to finding out.. Expect some "delays" with the whole shut down. An attempt to maintain face..
Suuuuuuure.
The game either floats on a P2P approach, or they go F2P with the mega cash shop. Either way, TOR isnt going anywhere.
I hope it doesnt go F2P, but that seems to be the business model these days. Games like EVE double dip.....sub plus cashing in on plex sales among players. I hope we see a non P2W item shop long before they consider F2P.
If I was in charge, I would add a bunch of DLC PVE content in conjunction with kicking out as much free PVE content as possible. EQ used that route(although the free DLC was minimal), and it was top dog until WoW hit. IMO the most important thing you can do for PVE gamers is keep the new content rolling.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
If I was in charge, I would add a bunch of DLC PVE content in conjunction with kicking out as much free PVE content as possible. EQ used that route(although the free DLC was minimal), and it was top dog until WoW hit. IMO the most important thing you can do for PVE gamers is keep the new content rolling.
Dunno man, i can't be the only one who burned out of the game before even reaching socalled endgame ...
I mean after taking 3 classes to 30+ and all off the rest to atleast 20+ i could see exactly where this was going. The mere thought of doing all this shit again(gear treadmill grinding crafting etc) and again and again for the next couple years turned me off. I mean i have a like half a dozen 80s in WoW, and i so do not want a repeat of that ... I liked the dungeons i had seen, but i just knew i would be sick of them the 20th time around, and thats a low figure if you twink alot.
I think the problem was that the way to the endgame was just plain uninteresting. Yeah yeah the story was nice. Really it was. But if i want a nice story i just go and read a book. Unlocking the CS to get the story bits by doing stupid repetetive tasks(aka quests) just seemed like a waste of time. Neither the quests themselves nor the combat mechanics where in the least interesting, every class played like a hunter basically, send in pet to tank --> nuke.
It was really really boring, conceptually i mean. Never felt leveling my char being such a chore. The game was severely lacking variety imho, also it had a "on rails" feeling thats kinda above and beyond normal themeparks, what with those questcahins for companions and your ship etc. What happened to alternative ways to level? Even warhammer was conceptually further evolved(though flawed in execution).
The way i see it the only things this game added to the genre where cutscenes for quests and free pets during solo play to make combat more boring. They literally managed to devolve in almost any other regard, be it technical stuff like how many players the engine can handle, amount of classes(4 base with specialization at later point, lots of shared skills, mirror factions), or even simple things like combat logs etc. Its like 2005 all over again.
What they should do is add space combat, REAL space combat with multiplayer PvP, preferrably with guild capital ships. There's this Star Wars game, forgot the name, where you can board other cruisers, that's the kind of stuff they should add. Make it like with scenarios, where a space station needs be protected or a fleet needs to be escorted and protected while the other faction needs to sabotage and destroy it before they hyperjump, that sort of thing. Or dog fights between asteroids.
Also, player housing would be nice, those fleet hubs were a mistake, Coruscant should be used for all kind of stuff, add player housing there a la EQ2, make the player ships more customisable too. And Ilum should be completely redesigned, territory control with bases, turrets and fighting all over a planet would be great, but it isn't working like it is right now, which is too bad, the idea is sound, to have a persistent open world area where factions can fight over bases, control points and objectives.
Originally posted by SpottyGekko If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game.
So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
LOL !! the game is already made -- 300k subs paying $15 per month is actually RECOVERING their initial investments. the game is done with the expensive initial investment, now is when they MAKE that money back and 300k is a healthy profit for a MMO. try making some sense when you talk. if they got 50k players, then yes keeping it up and running could be considered a loss. But at this point, any MMO will make a profit off 2-300k subs. give us a break.
You are right. Of course it will take them 10 years to make back the initial investment, but eventually they will get there... Unless more people quit. How many people fit on 30 servers anyway?
Are you a Pavlovian Fish Biscuit Addict? Get Help Now!
I will play no more MMORPGs until somethign good comes out!
If I was in charge, I would add a bunch of DLC PVE content in conjunction with kicking out as much free PVE content as possible. EQ used that route(although the free DLC was minimal), and it was top dog until WoW hit. IMO the most important thing you can do for PVE gamers is keep the new content rolling.
See in my view this game needs more open PVP options. There is already tons of heroics,flashpoints and operations. Plus there is a whole new planet coming .(most likely that solo planet that was talked about pre-launch)
They need to go back and fix Ilum. For all the problems it had, it was still the only place you could duke it out with a large group of people. Warzones get old after a certain point. All they have to do is keep the gear for warzones and add important resources to Ilum that are accessible to whichever side controls the planet. Then add control points at different parts of the planet.How hard is that?
If I was in charge, I would add a bunch of DLC PVE content in conjunction with kicking out as much free PVE content as possible. EQ used that route(although the free DLC was minimal), and it was top dog until WoW hit. IMO the most important thing you can do for PVE gamers is keep the new content rolling.
See in my view this game needs more open PVP options. There is already tons of heroics,flashpoints and operations. Plus there is a whole new planet coming .(most likely that solo planet that was talked about pre-launch)
They need to go back and fix Ilum. For all the problems it had, it was still the only place you could duke it out with a large group of people. Warzones get old after a certain point. All they have to do is keep the gear for warzones and add important resources to Ilum that are accessible to whichever side controls the planet. Then add control points at different parts of the planet.How hard is that?
Sorry Kt, I like ya as a poster, but PVP is toast. I think those that did stay on PVP servers did so more for SWs than anything else.
BW has done nothing but shoot themselves in the foot pertaining to PVP. Their forte was always PVE. There is already a good 1-49 base in place.....now they need to keep expanding the end game, and filling in details.I dont think you can win back PVP folks, but you can with PVE....EQ2 showed this once Hartsman took over, and it looks like he is up to his old bag of tricks with Rift.
Being as you play a heck of lot more than I do, I really hope it works out, but I just am not seeing it. If they could kick out several maps per quarter, and all would be good would be one thing.....it will be the proverbial "monkey screwing a football" though. BW and PVP just dont mix.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
-Cost $200 mil+ to make and market, maybe as much as $300 mil including all the marketing to datE
-And it showed.
-Lost at least 1 mil subs in the first 6 months
-Because they never reached a million to begin with. Most never even smelled 500k. That's like the musician that never had a hit bragging that his songs never dropped as far on the charts as the one hit wonder.
-Were hyped to the moon about being the biggest thing to hit the MMO genre, ever
-Hyperbole
Incuding the 60+ articles at this site alone
-Yes I know, you guys are still peeved about those high scores that your precious favorites never got.
-Had such high expectations, at all levels, attached to it.
-Every MMO released has high expectations. You don't invest money in a project and not have expectations.
There will not be another $200 mil MMO made for the next 5 years at least, maybe 10 years, maybe longer.
-Yeah, the future for MMOs will be great once developers stop investing so much money in them. Then you guys will be back playing by yourselves in those low cost pieces of garbage that no one but yourselves think are great games.
you ppl need to get over this starwars thing and just get ready to roll a panda, besides the next WoW xpac will probably be in space anyways.
Am I the only one who thinks its hilarious how the only thing anyone mentions about WoW is pandas?
I'm not saying you think it sucks, but seriously its like.
"lawlz wow sux lol haz fun wit ur pandaz" as if its kung fu panda online.
I don't hate WoW, and I don't play it either. But seriously, if "lawlz panda" is all you have to diss something with, grow up..
Playing Nothing waiting for The secret world Played WoW, DCU online, star wars: the old republic, city of heroes, city of villains, everquest, plenty more I'm probably forgetting or aren't worth noting.
-Yeah, the future for MMOs will be great once developers stop investing so much money in them. Then you guys will be back playing by yourselves in those low cost pieces of garbage that no one but yourselves think are great games.
So you think playing high cost pieces of garbage is more fun than playing low cost pieces of garbage? Interesting logic.
The way i see it there is no correlation, no correlation at all, between the production costs of a game and the enjoyment people can derive from it. You think if BW had thrown another 100-200 mil into marketing or VOs(maybe by using voices of wellknown actors) the game would have been any better? I call BS on that.
All the (paid)hype in magazines and commercials during primetime(in dozens of countries) did add ABSOLUTELY nothing to the quality of the game. Satisfied customers and regular honest reviews should be all thats needed to promote a decent game, start low and keep growing because people actually like your game, you know like EvE is doing.
They not just paid millions for those commercials, the also shot themselves into the foot because they lured people into the game that have no interest in the genre. That kind of logic works for single player games where a sale is a sale, but in MMOs you actually have costs associated with people, especially if you have to provide hundreds of servers initially for a population thats down the drain later on. Then you have to deal with the bad press of server mergers etc, where in reality your population just dropped to a realistic figure without all inflation caused by your hyperactive marketing department.
-Cost $200 mil+ to make and market, maybe as much as $300 mil including all the marketing to datE
-And it showed.
And so do the empty servers, and huge population declines, not 6 months out. It is a very pretty digital oil painting, fine. But it is not fun to play an oil painting. And again, it is about expectations.
-Lost at least 1 mil subs in the first 6 months
-Because they never reached a million to begin with. Most never even smelled 500k. That's like the musician that never had a hit bragging that his songs never dropped as far on the charts as the one hit wonder.
Techincally correct, but even then, so what? On a percentage basis, TOR is doing as badly as many games, and worse. For the most expensive game ever made.
-Were hyped to the moon about being the biggest thing to hit the MMO genre, ever
-Hyperbole
EA/BW spent more on marketing TOR over the time period, than any company has spent on a title over the same period. That is not even really in doubt. And created huge expectations.
Incuding the 60+ articles at this site alone
-Yes I know, you guys are still peeved about those high scores that your precious favorites never got.
And that has anything to do with the medicrity of TOR? This site and many others hyped TOR with 5+ or more articles every week. A product that they themseles were advertising on this very site.
-Had such high expectations, at all levels, attached to it.
-Every MMO released has high expectations. You don't invest money in a project and not have expectations.
Every MMO has expectations, obviously (duh). EAs own and those they sold to investors were for multiple millions of subs, for years. Otherwise no one would have commited 200+ mil for 5 years. EA was thinking WoW numbers, or they would not have invest that much time/money.
The sales/retention/financial expectaions have not come close to being met, and by the massive player losses, I'd say player expectations have not been met either.
There will not be another $200 mil MMO made for the next 5 years at least, maybe 10 years, maybe longer.
-Yeah, the future for MMOs will be great once developers stop investing so much money in them. Then you guys will be back playing by yourselves in those low cost pieces of garbage that no one but yourselves think are great games.
Perhaps you have me confused with someone else, but I have not been playing many MMOs these last few years, because they frankly have all sucked longterm.
And it is not even that TOR is a bad game, it is simply the most expensive, most hyped, hugely anticipated MEDIOCRE game of all time. They could have made an equally mediocre game for 25% of the price and EA/BW would not have tanked the reputation by doing so.
So basically for you it all comes down to marketing and perceived expectations on failure of a game. Fair enough. Personally, I never expected this game to be the size of WOW and neither did most here when polled. You had the occasional fanatic that made the claim, but by and large most people didn't expect the second coming of WOW.#What I expected was a nicely polished game with a better leveling experience than I ever had before. That is what was being marketed and that is what I got. Since I'm still playing the game six months out and enjoying myself, the game isn't a failure. When other people pay my sub fees, then I'll start caring about who considers TOR to be a failure because in the end it is all a matter of opinion, not fact.
Looking at the site right now it seens The Secret World is being marketed and GW2 is being hyped big time by its fans . Will they be a failure in your eyes if they don't reach WOW numbers or have a drop off in subs post launch like every MMO since WOW has done?
Originally posted by SpottyGekko If SWTOR really has only 200-300K players left, then EA will shut it down very quickly. They shut down E&B because it wasn't "profitable enough", so they definitely won't run a loss-making game. So as long as SWTOR is open for business, it means EA are making "enough" profit, regardless of what third-party sites may say about the population
EnB was shut down because it had less than 20k subscribers at the end. TOR will survive as long as it makes a profit, the limit for that currently lies at approximately 40-50k - Depending on how updates are managed.
So basically for you it all comes down to marketing and perceived expectations on failure of a game. Fair enough. Personally, I never expected this game to be the size of WOW and neither did most here when polled. You had the occasional fanatic that made the claim, but by and large most people didn't expect the second coming of WOW.#What I expected was a nicely polished game with a better leveling experience than I ever had before. That is what was being marketed and that is what I got. Since I'm still playing the game six months out and enjoying myself, the game isn't a failure. When other people pay my sub fees, then I'll start caring about who considers TOR to be a failure because in the end it is all a matter of opinion, not fact.
Looking at the site right now it seens The Secret World is being marketed and GW2 is being hyped big time by its fans . Will they be a failure in your eyes if they don't reach WOW numbers or have a drop off in subs post launch like every MMO since WOW has done?
It is not my expectations,.
EA/BW expected millions of subs and so did their investors. They came out and said it. WoW-like numbers are what they were looking for. And the EA execs came out and said what they needed for this game to be a "success" and profitable. Those have obviously not been reached, which is why EA was downplaying TOR on the conference call, and fired 100+ people off the TOR staff, just a couple weeks after saying they were keeping everyone.
More importantly, TOR has not met player expectations for the majority of players, i.e. those that already quit. Player expectations were certainly not helped by the gaming press, including this site, that hyped the hell out of it. About 2/3 or 3/4 of all the people that bought TOR have quit or not subbed (of the 2.4 mil boxed TOR allegedly sold) , during the first 6 months. Perhaps more. That does not scream success to me.
TOR is simply mediocre. EA can't fix it (or soon enough to make any difference), and that is the end of the story.
As to those other games, they will do how they do, but it will certainly be easier for them to reach the goals the companies set, because neither cost half of what TOR did.
And gameplay aside, I think GW2 will sell a lot of boxing because of their pricing model.
Comments
LOL !! the game is already made -- 300k subs paying $15 per month is actually RECOVERING their initial investments. the game is done with the expensive initial investment, now is when they MAKE that money back and 300k is a healthy profit for a MMO. try making some sense when you talk. if they got 50k players, then yes keeping it up and running could be considered a loss. But at this point, any MMO will make a profit off 2-300k subs. give us a break.
I didnt want the game to fail per se, but I didnt like that SWG was shut down bascially for this game and this is what we get.... Also its yet another in a long line of MMOs that is so incredibly overhyped that there is no way anyone should ever perorder a game without playing it first.
WAR does not have a huge IP/license fee associated with it.
The only way this game will stay going longterm, is if the licensing fee is re-negotiated at some point. It was not foreseen that the population of this game was going to collapse so quickly, and the "deal" with LA all but certainly reflects that. That original deal has to change.
No way the game stays around otherwise.
Expect some "delays" with the whole shut down. An attempt to maintain face..
PM before you report at least or you could just block.
Suuuuuuure.
The game either floats on a P2P approach, or they go F2P with the mega cash shop. Either way, TOR isnt going anywhere.
I hope it doesnt go F2P, but that seems to be the business model these days. Games like EVE double dip.....sub plus cashing in on plex sales among players. I hope we see a non P2W item shop long before they consider F2P.
If I was in charge, I would add a bunch of DLC PVE content in conjunction with kicking out as much free PVE content as possible. EQ used that route(although the free DLC was minimal), and it was top dog until WoW hit. IMO the most important thing you can do for PVE gamers is keep the new content rolling.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
Dunno man, i can't be the only one who burned out of the game before even reaching socalled endgame ...
I mean after taking 3 classes to 30+ and all off the rest to atleast 20+ i could see exactly where this was going. The mere thought of doing all this shit again(gear treadmill grinding crafting etc) and again and again for the next couple years turned me off. I mean i have a like half a dozen 80s in WoW, and i so do not want a repeat of that ... I liked the dungeons i had seen, but i just knew i would be sick of them the 20th time around, and thats a low figure if you twink alot.
I think the problem was that the way to the endgame was just plain uninteresting. Yeah yeah the story was nice. Really it was. But if i want a nice story i just go and read a book. Unlocking the CS to get the story bits by doing stupid repetetive tasks(aka quests) just seemed like a waste of time. Neither the quests themselves nor the combat mechanics where in the least interesting, every class played like a hunter basically, send in pet to tank --> nuke.
It was really really boring, conceptually i mean. Never felt leveling my char being such a chore. The game was severely lacking variety imho, also it had a "on rails" feeling thats kinda above and beyond normal themeparks, what with those questcahins for companions and your ship etc. What happened to alternative ways to level? Even warhammer was conceptually further evolved(though flawed in execution).
The way i see it the only things this game added to the genre where cutscenes for quests and free pets during solo play to make combat more boring. They literally managed to devolve in almost any other regard, be it technical stuff like how many players the engine can handle, amount of classes(4 base with specialization at later point, lots of shared skills, mirror factions), or even simple things like combat logs etc. Its like 2005 all over again.
You are right. Of course it will take them 10 years to make back the initial investment, but eventually they will get there... Unless more people quit. How many people fit on 30 servers anyway?
Are you a Pavlovian Fish Biscuit Addict? Get Help Now!
I will play no more MMORPGs until somethign good comes out!
See in my view this game needs more open PVP options. There is already tons of heroics,flashpoints and operations. Plus there is a whole new planet coming .(most likely that solo planet that was talked about pre-launch)
They need to go back and fix Ilum. For all the problems it had, it was still the only place you could duke it out with a large group of people. Warzones get old after a certain point. All they have to do is keep the gear for warzones and add important resources to Ilum that are accessible to whichever side controls the planet. Then add control points at different parts of the planet.How hard is that?
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
You're looking at non-peak times. There were like 8 full servers yesterday and 2 heavy's.
you ppl need to get over this starwars thing and just get ready to roll a panda, besides the next WoW xpac will probably be in space anyways.
To be fair,that OP was done before the recent transfers.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
Um...no thanks . WOW just isn't my cup of tea. But by all means, enjoy the pandas.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
Sorry Kt, I like ya as a poster, but PVP is toast. I think those that did stay on PVP servers did so more for SWs than anything else.
BW has done nothing but shoot themselves in the foot pertaining to PVP. Their forte was always PVE. There is already a good 1-49 base in place.....now they need to keep expanding the end game, and filling in details.I dont think you can win back PVP folks, but you can with PVE....EQ2 showed this once Hartsman took over, and it looks like he is up to his old bag of tricks with Rift.
Being as you play a heck of lot more than I do, I really hope it works out, but I just am not seeing it. If they could kick out several maps per quarter, and all would be good would be one thing.....it will be the proverbial "monkey screwing a football" though. BW and PVP just dont mix.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
Didn't we have a thread like this already ?
Where you can't actually guess the numbers..because there are no numbers to extrapolate anything from ?
Besides the point though,
When did 300k become a failure ? At eq's peak, arguably the second-most succesful MMO in the brief history of the genre..it had 550k subs.
UO, the first major success, had less then 200k.
Would you call either of these failures ? (Or call them failures now ? hovering around 100-250k pop each, and still making money..)
If WoW hadn't cornered the Asian market, would 300k look that bad compared to 900k-1 mil ?
As long as WZ's pop, and people are around to talk to, quest with. SWTOR is fine with me, and with the server transfers, it's exactly that.
None of those other games:
-Cost $200 mil+ to make and market, maybe as much as $300 mil including all the marketing to date.
-Lost at least 1 mil subs in the first 6 months
-Were hyped to the moon about being the biggest thing to hit the MMO genre, ever. Incuding the 60+ articles at this site alone.
-Had such high expectations, at all levels, attached to it.
There will not be another $200 mil MMO made for the next 5 years at least, maybe 10 years, maybe longer.
TOR is shaping up to be an example of what not to do in the MMO space, all its own.
There are many ways to be considered a failure, and TOR certainly qualifies in several catagories.
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
Am I the only one who thinks its hilarious how the only thing anyone mentions about WoW is pandas?
I'm not saying you think it sucks, but seriously its like.
"lawlz wow sux lol haz fun wit ur pandaz" as if its kung fu panda online.
I don't hate WoW, and I don't play it either. But seriously, if "lawlz panda" is all you have to diss something with, grow up..
Playing
Nothing
waiting for
The secret world
Played
WoW, DCU online, star wars: the old republic, city of heroes, city of villains, everquest, plenty more I'm probably forgetting or aren't worth noting.
So you think playing high cost pieces of garbage is more fun than playing low cost pieces of garbage? Interesting logic.
The way i see it there is no correlation, no correlation at all, between the production costs of a game and the enjoyment people can derive from it. You think if BW had thrown another 100-200 mil into marketing or VOs(maybe by using voices of wellknown actors) the game would have been any better? I call BS on that.
All the (paid)hype in magazines and commercials during primetime(in dozens of countries) did add ABSOLUTELY nothing to the quality of the game. Satisfied customers and regular honest reviews should be all thats needed to promote a decent game, start low and keep growing because people actually like your game, you know like EvE is doing.
They not just paid millions for those commercials, the also shot themselves into the foot because they lured people into the game that have no interest in the genre. That kind of logic works for single player games where a sale is a sale, but in MMOs you actually have costs associated with people, especially if you have to provide hundreds of servers initially for a population thats down the drain later on. Then you have to deal with the bad press of server mergers etc, where in reality your population just dropped to a realistic figure without all inflation caused by your hyperactive marketing department.
" The Titantic is sinking and its almost entirely under water now"
you know,the whole titanic thing got old a week after the cool kids started that phrase
And that is why they/you fail.
So basically for you it all comes down to marketing and perceived expectations on failure of a game. Fair enough. Personally, I never expected this game to be the size of WOW and neither did most here when polled. You had the occasional fanatic that made the claim, but by and large most people didn't expect the second coming of WOW.#What I expected was a nicely polished game with a better leveling experience than I ever had before. That is what was being marketed and that is what I got. Since I'm still playing the game six months out and enjoying myself, the game isn't a failure. When other people pay my sub fees, then I'll start caring about who considers TOR to be a failure because in the end it is all a matter of opinion, not fact.
Looking at the site right now it seens The Secret World is being marketed and GW2 is being hyped big time by its fans . Will they be a failure in your eyes if they don't reach WOW numbers or have a drop off in subs post launch like every MMO since WOW has done?
Currently Playing: World of Warcraft
EnB was shut down because it had less than 20k subscribers at the end. TOR will survive as long as it makes a profit, the limit for that currently lies at approximately 40-50k - Depending on how updates are managed.
Playing: WF
Played: WoW, GW2, L2, WAR, AoC, DnL (2005), GW, LotRO, EQ2, TOR, CoH (RIP), STO, TSW, TERA, EVE, ESO, BDO
Tried: EQ, UO, AO, EnB, TCoS, Fury, Ryzom, EU, DDO, TR, RF, CO, Aion, VG, DN, Vindictus, AA
It is not my expectations,.
EA/BW expected millions of subs and so did their investors. They came out and said it. WoW-like numbers are what they were looking for. And the EA execs came out and said what they needed for this game to be a "success" and profitable. Those have obviously not been reached, which is why EA was downplaying TOR on the conference call, and fired 100+ people off the TOR staff, just a couple weeks after saying they were keeping everyone.
More importantly, TOR has not met player expectations for the majority of players, i.e. those that already quit. Player expectations were certainly not helped by the gaming press, including this site, that hyped the hell out of it. About 2/3 or 3/4 of all the people that bought TOR have quit or not subbed (of the 2.4 mil boxed TOR allegedly sold) , during the first 6 months. Perhaps more. That does not scream success to me.
TOR is simply mediocre. EA can't fix it (or soon enough to make any difference), and that is the end of the story.
As to those other games, they will do how they do, but it will certainly be easier for them to reach the goals the companies set, because neither cost half of what TOR did.
And gameplay aside, I think GW2 will sell a lot of boxing because of their pricing model.