Rift has sold close to 2 million boxes to be honest. It is not hard when they price the game at $5. Pay to play games are about the sub fee. Buy to play games are about th box sales and cash shop.
It is pretty damn easy to estimate to be honest considering Guild Wars sold close to 7 million. Take a game that is hyped up to be UO 2.0, DAoC 2.0 + free to play after you buy the box and my guess would be 2-3million sold easily.
The original Guild Wars did not sell close to 7 millions. That number counts the major "content packs" individually. You are welcome to though to show me how many bought Guild Wars Prophecies (the original).
Edit:
Buying the "content packs" is analogous to buying expansion packs and paying subscription. It measures how much players they have retained.
The original Guild Wars did not sell close to 7 millions. That number counts the major "content packs" individually. You are welcome to though to show me how many bought Guild Wars Prophecies (the original).
Edit:
Buying the "content packs" is analogous to buying expansion packs and paying subscription. It measures how much players they have retained.
Absolute possible minimum for each individual type of Guild Wars (Guild Wars Prophecies/Factions/Nightfall) would be 2.3 million, assuming they sold equal amounts (Which isn't true)
im expecting GW2 to sell at least double that with all the name recognition it has now
It has sold half million already before release. I'd expect 3 mill during first 6 months.
I think you're on the right track in numbers. The game will do well, because the NDA is lifted and there is nothing but good to say about it so far. Word of mouth is going to sell a game like crazy. I remember that's what happened with WoW. I was in the beta, but didn't feel like testing another game at the time so I let one of my husbands friend play it. He played it and loved it. Word got around to everyone how good the game was, it sold so much that there were no copies in stock anywhere we could buy it. We had to wait til they had more copies to even buy the game. Now with being able too buy digitally, that won't happen with running out of copies though.
The original Guild Wars did not sell close to 7 millions. That number counts the major "content packs" individually. You are welcome to though to show me how many bought Guild Wars Prophecies (the original).
Edit:
Buying the "content packs" is analogous to buying expansion packs and paying subscription. It measures how much players they have retained.
Absolute possible minimum for each individual type of Guild Wars (Guild Wars Prophecies/Factions/Nightfall) would be 2.3 million, assuming they sold equal amounts (Which isn't true)
Still a hefty number.
Yeah, I would agree that 2.3 millions is a very good number in the MMORPG scene.
Nothing but stellar reviews & hype throughout the MMOG press, continuing after a jam-packed beta & everyone + their uncle writing postively glowing reviews and posting GW2 love video online ... and no subscription???!!!!
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.
Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
I think GW2 will have over a million players 6 months after release and box sales should be 5 million over the years easily.
You could very well be correct but I would probably bet your way under on the numbers there... Has been a lot of talk that they already sold close to a million prepurchases based on the size of the BWE and Stress Test recently.
For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is. Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.
This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away
For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is. Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.
This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away
I really hope so, and hopefully the naysayers will atleast give it a shot. =P
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.
Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.
One thing you have to remember any time you are looking at a Blizzard product is that every single number they release publicly is grossly exxagerated due to shady bookkeeping. Just like they claim there is 10+million people subscribed to WoW... But their numbers include both the free to lvl 20 guest accounts and the 6+ million players in China who only spend about 2 - 5$ US per month to play. Because their definition of subscription is any active account... Which includes the pay per hour accounts(chinese), free game time accounts, guest accounts, and regular subscriptions.
GW2 will trump SWTOR in box sales, Diablo 3 is not an MMO but will easily trump GW2 and already has.
That's about all there is to say in here, rolling out.
lol, love that you had to tell the OP to read his own comment.
At first I said this
I still think that the IP an marketing of EA is going to make SWTOR the winner of box sales (or who has already). I think their at 3 or 4 miillion, whether they have that many subscribers, that's going to be doubtful.
Thinking about the recent layoffs and EA's placement of SWTOR in their strategy, i don't think they will have the total average players on lock for long.
There are going to be a half dozen games that are going to outsell guild wars this year. I can't see any MMOs on the horizon that is going to have the power behind it. I even think that SWTOR and TSW are going to encourage many studios to use their extra funding to make sure the game is as polished as Rift upon release . I think some games go off the case that they will eventually make it up and underestimated what people are willing to accept.
I think GW2 will have over a million players 6 months after release and box sales should be 5 million over the years easily.
You could very well be correct but I would probably bet your way under on the numbers there... Has been a lot of talk that they already sold close to a million prepurchases based on the size of the BWE and Stress Test recently.
Ohyeah sure, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 million people would play 6 months after release.
For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is. Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.
This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away
It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.
Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.
One thing you have to remember any time you are looking at a Blizzard product is that every single number they release publicly is grossly exxagerated due to shady bookkeeping. Just like they claim there is 10+million people subscribed to WoW... But their numbers include both the free to lvl 20 guest accounts and the 6+ million players in China who only spend about 2 - 5$ US per month to play. Because their definition of subscription is any active account... Which includes the pay per hour accounts(chinese), free game time accounts, guest accounts, and regular subscriptions.
So when they say they sold 3.5 million copies in the first 24 hours, that really means.......................what? You'll have to use your tinfoil hat to decifer that one for me.
I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil
I'm sure GW2 will do pretty well at it's initial release, but I don't imagine it going much beyond 1-2 million copies it's first year as a high estimate. I'm guessing like GW1, it'll really shine where other games fail - in the long run.
Where most sub based MMOs sell an initial amount of boxes and then rely on subs soon after as primary income, often dropping box price to a few dollars in many cases or even offer a free client, GW1 and it's expansions went on to sell over 6 million units since it's release without ever drastically reducing the price (although the bundle deals could be figured in to some degree I'm sure).
I'd bet that in the same amount of time GW2 will at least match the sales of GW1 if not surpass it (and other MMOs, possibly by quite a bit as word of mouth regarding it's overall quality spreads).
I think if Arenanet hits us with the tv commercials like blizzard did with D3 then I'm going with 3.5 - 4million in the first month, if just the usual website ads and word of mouth then yea 2 - 2.5mil.
For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is. Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.
This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away
I'm with you.
And forum naysayers or cheerleaders don't matter in the grand scheme of things. The only way you can tell how a game is doing is by checking cold hard facts. For example, SWTOR seems to be floundering not because of all the forum hate, but because of the fact that EA just laid off a bunch of Bioware folks and they publicly stated that SWTOR isn't really that important to them anymore.
Comments
The original Guild Wars did not sell close to 7 millions. That number counts the major "content packs" individually. You are welcome to though to show me how many bought Guild Wars Prophecies (the original).
Edit:
Buying the "content packs" is analogous to buying expansion packs and paying subscription. It measures how much players they have retained.
Absolute possible minimum for each individual type of Guild Wars (Guild Wars Prophecies/Factions/Nightfall) would be 2.3 million, assuming they sold equal amounts (Which isn't true)
Still a hefty number.
I think you're on the right track in numbers. The game will do well, because the NDA is lifted and there is nothing but good to say about it so far. Word of mouth is going to sell a game like crazy. I remember that's what happened with WoW. I was in the beta, but didn't feel like testing another game at the time so I let one of my husbands friend play it. He played it and loved it. Word got around to everyone how good the game was, it sold so much that there were no copies in stock anywhere we could buy it. We had to wait til they had more copies to even buy the game. Now with being able too buy digitally, that won't happen with running out of copies though.
What happens when you log off your characters????.....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
Dark Age of Camelot
Yeah, I would agree that 2.3 millions is a very good number in the MMORPG scene.
I fully expect GW2 to slay it in box sales.
Nothing but stellar reviews & hype throughout the MMOG press, continuing after a jam-packed beta & everyone + their uncle writing postively glowing reviews and posting GW2 love video online ... and no subscription???!!!!
It's a slam-dunk.
One thing I will predict right now:
Neither Tera nor TSW will come even remotely close to GW2 when it comes to box sales.
See you in December so I can tell you "told you so"
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
Not once you add in refunds and the game doesn't release until Q1 2013.
If you manage to get a refund for a GW2 prepurchase, I want you to scan the receipt and post it here as proof.
Take your time, I'm not holding my breath
Respect, walk
Are you talkin' to me? Are you talkin' to me?
- PANTERA at HELLFEST 2023
I know it shouldn't be compared to D3 but it looks like they have sold around 6.3 mil in a week, atleast thats what blizzard is saying I guess.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
I think GW2 will have over a million players 6 months after release and box sales should be 5 million over the years easily.
It could probably be done through a chargeback, but from ANet themselves it won't.
They havent sold 6.3 million in a week. They have sold 6.3 million in the last year ever since they first offered the free DIablo 3 with purchase of annual WoW pass crap... Also every WoW player who purchased a Annual pass without any intention of playing D3 is considered a Diablo 3 purchase.
D3 doesn't constitute an mmorpg, imo
There are times when one must ask themselves is it my passion that truly frightens you? Or your own?
Ahh I see ok thanks for the clarification.
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
You could very well be correct but I would probably bet your way under on the numbers there... Has been a lot of talk that they already sold close to a million prepurchases based on the size of the BWE and Stress Test recently.
For the first time in a very long time, I actually expect GW2 to grow post-release as word of mouth gets out about just how good the game is. Few MMOs have managed that over the past decade as most fight merely to retain current subcribers.
This, of course, doesn't mean the naysayers will go away
I really hope so, and hopefully the naysayers will atleast give it a shot. =P
The truth may be puzzling. It may take some work to grapple with. It may be counterintuitive. It may contradict deeply held prejudices. It may not be consonant with what we desperately want to be true. But our preferences do not determine what's true.
Carl Sagan-
One thing you have to remember any time you are looking at a Blizzard product is that every single number they release publicly is grossly exxagerated due to shady bookkeeping. Just like they claim there is 10+million people subscribed to WoW... But their numbers include both the free to lvl 20 guest accounts and the 6+ million players in China who only spend about 2 - 5$ US per month to play. Because their definition of subscription is any active account... Which includes the pay per hour accounts(chinese), free game time accounts, guest accounts, and regular subscriptions.
lol, love that you had to tell the OP to read his own comment.
At first I said this
I still think that the IP an marketing of EA is going to make SWTOR the winner of box sales (or who has already). I think their at 3 or 4 miillion, whether they have that many subscribers, that's going to be doubtful.
Thinking about the recent layoffs and EA's placement of SWTOR in their strategy, i don't think they will have the total average players on lock for long.
There are going to be a half dozen games that are going to outsell guild wars this year. I can't see any MMOs on the horizon that is going to have the power behind it. I even think that SWTOR and TSW are going to encourage many studios to use their extra funding to make sure the game is as polished as Rift upon release . I think some games go off the case that they will eventually make it up and underestimated what people are willing to accept.
Ohyeah sure, I wouldn't be surprised if 2 million people would play 6 months after release.
It's very rare for general video games even to grow much after release, not to meantion mmo's. It's not that it's not possible, but mostly it's the people who are really into the game. The word of mouth thing only works, IMO, if the game is really unkown. GW2 is already well known in the mmorpg community and alot in pc community, but i just don't see it growing into the overall market, like console players and all around people like casual players.
So when they say they sold 3.5 million copies in the first 24 hours, that really means.......................what? You'll have to use your tinfoil hat to decifer that one for me.
I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil
I'm sure GW2 will do pretty well at it's initial release, but I don't imagine it going much beyond 1-2 million copies it's first year as a high estimate. I'm guessing like GW1, it'll really shine where other games fail - in the long run.
Where most sub based MMOs sell an initial amount of boxes and then rely on subs soon after as primary income, often dropping box price to a few dollars in many cases or even offer a free client, GW1 and it's expansions went on to sell over 6 million units since it's release without ever drastically reducing the price (although the bundle deals could be figured in to some degree I'm sure).
I'd bet that in the same amount of time GW2 will at least match the sales of GW1 if not surpass it (and other MMOs, possibly by quite a bit as word of mouth regarding it's overall quality spreads).
I think if Arenanet hits us with the tv commercials like blizzard did with D3 then I'm going with 3.5 - 4million in the first month, if just the usual website ads and word of mouth then yea 2 - 2.5mil.
I'm with you.
And forum naysayers or cheerleaders don't matter in the grand scheme of things. The only way you can tell how a game is doing is by checking cold hard facts. For example, SWTOR seems to be floundering not because of all the forum hate, but because of the fact that EA just laid off a bunch of Bioware folks and they publicly stated that SWTOR isn't really that important to them anymore.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?