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GW2 - Best selling MMORPG of 2011/2012?

MeowheadMeowhead New Carlisle, INPosts: 3,716Member

Soooooo.... way back.  In the day.  Before SWTOR came out... I suggested that while SWTOR will probably be the new MMORPG with the most subscriptions, I thought that GW2 had a good chance of beating it in total box sales.

Some people seemed to think that was a wholly unreasonable proposition to make, since SWTOR was Bioware + Star Wars and hence unbeatable.

Now that SWTOR's launch has come and gone, and we have a general idea of how many boxes they've sold (More than 2 million, less than 3 million), how reasonable do you think it is that GW2 will be able to beat that?

Is there any other MMORPG that came out last year or is coming out this year that will have even higher box sales?  Tera?  TSW?  RIFT?

Alternatively, what sort of things do you think GW2 has to do by release to assure that it actually DOES sell a lot of copies?  Especially taking into account what we know so far by the Beta Weekend Event.

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Comments

  • Zeppelin5083Zeppelin5083 Fenton, MIPosts: 410Member

    Right now I think Diablo 3 is the only thing that may have a chance.

  • PivotelitePivotelite Hamilton, ONPosts: 2,167Member

    GW2 will trump SWTOR in box sales, Diablo 3 is not an MMO but will easily trump GW2 and already has.

     

    That's about all there is to say in here, rolling out.

    image

  • saurus123saurus123 nonePosts: 570Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Zeppelin5083

    Right now I think Diablo 3 is the only thing that may have a chance.

    read topic again and come back

  • Dekarx12Dekarx12 SydneyPosts: 374Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Zeppelin5083

    Right now I think Diablo 3 is the only thing that may have a chance.

    D3 isnt a mmo its a co-op rpg

    image

  • mWo4lifemWo4life pePosts: 119Member
     

    I don't think it will top up STWOR sells. Simply because SWTOR had had huge advertising campaine. So if GW2 wants to have a lot of sells in the first day/week of lunch they need to advertise a lot. This is at least how I see it.  

     

  • StrixMaximaStrixMaxima SPosts: 884Member

    The only thing that can hurt GW2 sales at this point is some sort of catastrophic launch. The stuff of legends.

    If the game has a decent/good launch, I think it will sell extremely well, especially considering just how much of the media is crazy about the game, and will more likely than not give it stellar reviews.

  • KabaalKabaal Edinburgh, ScotlandPosts: 3,012Member Uncommon

    GW2 doesn't have the franchise pull that TOR did, many of their box sales likely came from people who don't even play MMO's but just bought it because it was Star Wars. GW2 won't have that luxury.

  • FredomSekerZFredomSekerZ Long Beach, CAPosts: 1,156Member

    It think it can beat SWTOR. Mostly because players from other mmo's can still buy GW2, even if not a launch.

    However, the best selling will probably be Mist of Pandaria.

    EDIT: 3 million boxes, i'm not so sure, but can easly see over 2 million.

  • AvatarBladeAvatarBlade BucurestiPosts: 770Member Uncommon

    In the long run it will probably beat SWTOR in number of sales. For initial sales tho, I don't know. Doing an Open Beta Weekend close to release would help in that area I guess.

  • ChopsticksChopsticks chicago, ILPosts: 120Member

    It should sell real good. Swtor has sold 2.4 though, and I'm sure selling more (no one stays though).  It's going to be tough for them to catch swtor.

  • NasherUKNasherUK Secret cavePosts: 476Member Common

    But it's not really any thing new even though they have hyped it up to look that way.  It will spike at launch just like SWTOR did, but then start to decline again.

  • Ice-QueenIce-Queen USA, GAPosts: 2,451Member Uncommon

    I think word of mouth is what makes or breaks a game longterm. We'll have to see how that plays out, and we'll see 6-12 months from now. I do think GW2 has a real good chance of beating sales of SWTOR.

    image

    What happens when you log off your characters????.....
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GFQhfhnjYMk
    Dark Age of Camelot

  • Ethos86Ethos86 KortrijkPosts: 124Member

    MMO's: Yes I think it would be no surprise if GW2 sells more copies than any MMO since WoW. Just looking at my own environment reveals that to me. History has learned me that the popularity of each MMO's box sales in the western market is kinda linear with how manny people I personally know that have played the game.

    Knowing that 95% of my gaming-friends will play and mostly already bought GW2 (some of them will be touching MMO's for their first time with GW2, because they were never interested in the genre before) I can only think this game will be a massive box seller.

    I think it will innitially sell 2-3 million copies. In the longer run it will sell 5 million before it's first expantion.

     

    That's what I think, I won't lose sleep over it even if it only sold 1000 copies. As long as I can play it with my friend and as long as the servers are online... I will be having fun for some time to come. And yes I played the game like many people did already.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common

    as a new company, the original Guild Wars sold one million during its 1st 6 months

    http://www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/pressrelease-2005-09-22.php

     

    im expecting GW2 to sell at least double that with all the name recognition it has now

  • Zeus.CMZeus.CM ZagrebPosts: 1,788Member
    Originally posted by Nadia

    as a new company, the original Guild Wars sold one million during its 1st 6 months

    http://www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/pressrelease-2005-09-22.php

     

    im expecting GW2 to sell at least double that with all the name recognition it has now

    It has sold half million already before release. I'd expect 3 mill during first 6 months.

  • IPolygonIPolygon ViennaPosts: 707Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by thedarkess
    Originally posted by Nadia

    as a new company, the original Guild Wars sold one million during its 1st 6 months

    http://www.guildwars.com/events/press/releases/pressrelease-2005-09-22.php

     

    im expecting GW2 to sell at least double that with all the name recognition it has now

    It has sold half million already before release. I'd expect 3 mill during first 6 months.

    Do you have a source for this claim?

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Common

    i havent seen any preorder claims beyond ANET saying they had a few hundred thousand playing the beta

    http://www.neogamr.net/news/guild-wars-2-already-generating-high-pre-order-sales

  • fenistilfenistil GliwicePosts: 3,005Member

    I could bet quite alot of money that after a year GW2 will have much more sold boxes than Swtor will have after a year. 

    Anyone willing to bet with me?  

     

    So yeah it will be best selling mmorpg title propably at least till Titan get releaed.

  • OziiusOziius Baltimore, MDPosts: 1,388Member Uncommon
    Originally posted by Meowhead

    Soooooo.... way back.  In the day.  Before SWTOR came out... I suggested that while SWTOR will probably be the new MMORPG with the most subscriptions, I thought that GW2 had a good chance of beating it in total box sales.

    Some people seemed to think that was a wholly unreasonable proposition to make, since SWTOR was Bioware + Star Wars and hence unbeatable.

    Now that SWTOR's launch has come and gone, and we have a general idea of how many boxes they've sold (More than 2 million, less than 3 million), how reasonable do you think it is that GW2 will be able to beat that?

    Is there any other MMORPG that came out last year or is coming out this year that will have even higher box sales?  Tera?  TSW?  RIFT?

    Alternatively, what sort of things do you think GW2 has to do by release to assure that it actually DOES sell a lot of copies?  Especially taking into account what we know so far by the Beta Weekend Event.

    I am buying it for sure.. but I don't think it will be as strong as many others do. I think that this game will grow over the first 6 months instead of declining like TOR. This is gonna be a word of mouth mover instead of killer. In my opinion of course. 

  • OldManFunkOldManFunk BFE, KSPosts: 894Member

    They got 1 million beta registrations in 2 days time with very little advertising. They've sold a couple hundred thousand copies before the game even has a release date. It costs as much as Diablo 3 but has much more content. I think once the game is close to release and ANet starts advertising it'll sell so well that they'll have to limit sales while they setup new servers during the initial rush.


    But that said I don't think it really matters if it breaks records. It has very little to do with whether or not the game is fun to play... although I guess it does help to fund future content if it's popular, plus the more people the more likely your friends will be playing which also makes it more fun... so I guess it is a good thing to be popular.

  • TwoThreeFourTwoThreeFour Virginia, VAPosts: 2,131Member
    Originally posted by Dekarx12
    Originally posted by Zeppelin5083

    Right now I think Diablo 3 is the only thing that may have a chance.

    D3 isnt a mmo its a co-op rpg

     

    Besides, GW2 would not have a chance even if they were to compete. They are both multiplayer Buy-To-Play games, so there is merit in comparing, but not in this thread.

  • ChopsticksChopsticks chicago, ILPosts: 120Member
    Originally posted by OldManFunk

    They got 1 million beta registrations in 2 days time with very little advertising. They've sold a couple hundred thousand copies before the game even has a release date. It costs as much as Diablo 3 but has much more content. I think once the game is close to release and ANet starts advertising it'll sell so well that they'll have to limit sales while they setup new servers during the initial rush.


    But that said I don't think it really matters if it breaks records. It has very little to do with whether or not the game is fun to play... although I guess it does help to fund future content if it's popular, plus the more people the more likely your friends will be playing which also makes it more fun... so I guess it is a good thing to be popular.

    Really? I don't know a lot about D3. I thought it had massive amounts of content.

  • Zeppelin5083Zeppelin5083 Fenton, MIPosts: 410Member
    Originally posted by Dekarx12
    Originally posted by Zeppelin5083

    Right now I think Diablo 3 is the only thing that may have a chance.

    D3 isnt a mmo its a co-op rpg

    Whoops, my bad. 

     

    I think that GW2 will have no problem beating SWTOR in terms of box sales simply because it's B2P.

  • PuremallacePuremallace Phoenix, AZPosts: 1,856Member

    Rift has sold close to 2 million boxes to be honest. It is not hard when they price the game at $5. Pay to play games are about the sub fee. Buy to play games are about th box sales and cash shop.

     

    It is pretty damn easy to estimate to be honest considering Guild Wars sold close to 7 million. Take a game that is hyped up to be UO 2.0, DAoC 2.0 + free to play after you buy the box and my guess would be 2-3million sold easily.

  • RodimusPrimeRodimusPrime dickson, TNPosts: 114Member

    I am estimating it will sell 1.5 million at release and then build up. I don't think it will beat SWTOR initially, but will overtake it in the long term.

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