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SWTOR subs dip from 1.7 Million to 1.3

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  • Games888Games888 Chicago, ILPosts: 243Member

    at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

  • iceman00iceman00 Westland, MIPosts: 1,363Member

    Originally posted by Berikai

    Originally posted by Axehilt

    This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

    Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

    Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

    Out of 2.4 mill sales they probably made 70-80 mill profit max as they only get a portion of the box sales and that's not even counting I believe %35 to LA.So maybe 50 mill profit.The first 30 days are included and when you figure 1.5mill subs at $15x3 month's = about $67 mill you're not even close to breaking even.By the time you figure server cost's and such and more sub bleed they may turn a profit by years end.

     

    Then you gotta factor in the 65 mill marketing blitz they launched, then the cut to the people outside the company who bankrolled this project (there's always a few of those)

  • PrecusorPrecusor PalmaPosts: 4,733Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Games888

    at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

    You know this.. how?

  • iceman00iceman00 Westland, MIPosts: 1,363Member

    Originally posted by Distopia

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by Distopia

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

     

    Personally, 1.3 million as of March 31 is still pretty good

    Uh, no. Not when you sold 2.3 million copies total

     

    So SWTOR lost 1 million subs AND STILL hasn't merged server.

     

    That's all that can be said about the business mantality of EA. 

    And yes, the free month was included. The report was from the end of April

    What 1.3 million isn't a decent sub base? What?

    THEY LOST

    ONE MILLION

    SUBSCRIBERS

     

    In 5 months.

    WoW, with 13 million subs, lost 1 million IN ONE YEAR

     

    SWTOR has taken a MASSIVE hit.

    Massive hit sure, but that's the norm, people could say that about just about every MMO since 05. But 1.3 mil is something many sub based games wish they had, many never even reach a million in sales.

    So, you grant the numbers are a near 50% loss, and you spin it with "so, everyone wishes they still had 1.3 mill."  I actually am not as eeyorish on the numbers.  But if I was, I wouldn't be trying to say it was okay.  That's terrible numbers, and proof more of the power of hype than anything else.  That's not something to look forward to for the future of MMOs.

  • pharazonicpharazonic LDNPosts: 860Member

    Originally posted by Precusor

    Originally posted by Games888

    at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

    You know this.. how?

    It strikes me as an obvious conjecture. 

    "Never argue with a fool; onlookers may not be able to tell the difference."

    I need to take this advice more.

  • OldMMOGamerOldMMOGamer Evans, COPosts: 100Member

    Originally posted by Precusor

    Originally posted by Games888

    at least 1/2-1/3 came back to play the free month and left so u are looking at about 600k-800k or less.

    You know this.. how?

    He doesnt know, another wonder kid pulling figures out of his.... well you know.

  • spaceportspaceport CatalunyaPosts: 405Member

    Originally posted by jacklo

    Originally posted by spaceport

    Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

    It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

    They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

     

    Looks like Axehilt "inside the industry" analysis is laughable.

    And let's not forget how LA get's 30% of the subs income :P

    image
    "Esport with tournaments is for hardcore pvp'rs that want to be competitive. Openworld PVP with ganking and griefing is for casuals that just wants their pvp mixed with pve from time to time."
    otacu

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by jacklo

    Originally posted by spaceport

    Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

    It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

    They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

     

    You know nothing about business so stop trying.  If the break even point is 500K then double that amount is definitely good news because its nearly all profit from that point on.  Lets not forget that WoW did not start at 12 million subs but built up to that.

    Way i look at it is that SWTOR has all the bases covered for an mmo with a story that none of them can compare too.  Soon they will have dungeon finder too.

  • xion12121xion12121 Palm Harbor, FLPosts: 119Member

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by xion12121

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    Thats true about every game genius so whats your point.  It also doesn't include the fact the new people might come to the game and some people on free trials might buy it.

    Lets be honest, SWTOR haters never give good reasons why they hate the game, but just hate it because thats the cool thing to do online, hate things others like. 

  • BeanpuieBeanpuie Norfolk, VAPosts: 812Member Uncommon

    they are still not under 500k ,  move the goal post another 3 months.

  • killion81killion81 A City, MIPosts: 985Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by kcypher2000

    Originally posted by jacklo


    Originally posted by spaceport

    Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

    It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

    They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

     

    You know nothing about business so stop trying.  If the break even point is 500K then double that amount is definitely good news because its nearly all profit from that point on.  Lets not forget that WoW did not start at 12 million subs but built up to that.

    Way i look at it is that SWTOR has all the bases covered for an mmo with a story that none of them can compare too.  Soon they will have dungeon finder too.

     

    How do you build up your subscriber base when you are losing subs each quarter?  23.5% drop in "active subscriptions" over the last quarter.  I'm not even sure what "active subscriptions" are, but I'll bet there is more of them than "paying subscriptions".

  • xion12121xion12121 Palm Harbor, FLPosts: 119Member

    Originally posted by kcypher2000

    Originally posted by xion12121

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    Thats true about every game genius so whats your point.  It also doesn't include the fact the new people might come to the game and some people on free trials might buy it.

    Lets be honest, SWTOR haters never give good reasons why they hate the game, but just hate it because thats the cool thing to do online, hate things others like. 

                 The point is that those people are being counted even though they are not actively playing! to explain it in terms you can understand because you are not understanding me right now! 

                 If people who bought 6 months that are currently stuck in a subscription and don't play could remove their subscription they would do so instantly! Meaning the number currently reported at 1.3 million would be reduced by 1/3 or more! If you can understand this now pls respond! 

    I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by killion81

    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by jacklo


    Originally posted by spaceport

    Didn't EA said that they needed 1m subs for a year to break even?

    It was actually 500k subs over 12 months to break even.

    They also said 1 million over 12 months would be a good profit but nothing to write home about, the investors would not be happy!

     

    You know nothing about business so stop trying.  If the break even point is 500K then double that amount is definitely good news because its nearly all profit from that point on.  Lets not forget that WoW did not start at 12 million subs but built up to that.

    Way i look at it is that SWTOR has all the bases covered for an mmo with a story that none of them can compare too.  Soon they will have dungeon finder too.

     

    How do you build up your subscriber base when you are losing subs each quarter?  23.5% drop in "active subscriptions" over the last quarter.  I'm not even sure what "active subscriptions" are, but I'll bet there is more of them than "paying subscriptions".

     

    I can name every other mmo out there that has lost subs especially after its launch.  SWTOR is not perfect and not for everyone. Subs go down and they also go up.   All you naysayers out there just want to see it fail regardless of the fact that its a solid mmo that many people do in fact enjoy. 

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by xion12121

    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by xion12121

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    Thats true about every game genius so whats your point.  It also doesn't include the fact the new people might come to the game and some people on free trials might buy it.

    Lets be honest, SWTOR haters never give good reasons why they hate the game, but just hate it because thats the cool thing to do online, hate things others like. 

                 The point is that those people are being counted even though they are not actively playing! to explain it in terms you can understand because you are not understanding me right now! 

                 If people who bought 6 months that are currently stuck in a subscription and don't play could remove their subscription they would do so instantly! Meaning the number currently reported at 1.3 million would be reduced by 1/3 or more! If you can understand this now pls respond! 

    Can you not understand that you are ASSUMING.  I put it in bold for you since you obviously aren't too bright.  You have no basis on anything you are posting and do not know if new people will sub or how many will unsub. 

  • xion12121xion12121 Palm Harbor, FLPosts: 119Member

    Originally posted by kcypher2000

    Originally posted by xion12121


    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by xion12121

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    Thats true about every game genius so whats your point.  It also doesn't include the fact the new people might come to the game and some people on free trials might buy it.

    Lets be honest, SWTOR haters never give good reasons why they hate the game, but just hate it because thats the cool thing to do online, hate things others like. 

                 The point is that those people are being counted even though they are not actively playing! to explain it in terms you can understand because you are not understanding me right now! 

                 If people who bought 6 months that are currently stuck in a subscription and don't play could remove their subscription they would do so instantly! Meaning the number currently reported at 1.3 million would be reduced by 1/3 or more! If you can understand this now pls respond! 

    Can you not understand that you are ASSUMING.  I put it in bold for you since you obviously aren't too bright.  You have no basis on anything you are posting and do not know if new people will sub or how many will unsub. 

                    You are still not understanding what I'm saying though! We won't know the real numbers because people who bought 6 month  subs that ARE NOT CURRENTLY PLAYING, are still being counted when they shouldn't be! If you are understanding this pls respond! 

    I would give you a guest pass to SWOTR, but then I wouldn't be able to find a way to live with myself afterwards....

  • SouldrainerSouldrainer Elmer, NJPosts: 1,857Member

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

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  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by xion12121

    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by xion12121


    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by xion12121

              Question for everyone responding to this thread about boasting about numbers??? Does this 1.3 million they showed include the people who signed up for 6 months game time by being noobs and not knowing what they were doing??? 

              Because i feel that in those numbers maybe 1/3 or more are stuck with a 6 month subscription and I'm pretty sure they got counted regardless whethere they are playing or not!  So in Actuality we won't know the real effect until the next quarter, considering 6 month subscriptions probably will all end in late April , Early May! I wouldn't be exicted on those numbers as of yet till we see the numbers then! 

    Thats true about every game genius so whats your point.  It also doesn't include the fact the new people might come to the game and some people on free trials might buy it.

    Lets be honest, SWTOR haters never give good reasons why they hate the game, but just hate it because thats the cool thing to do online, hate things others like. 

                 The point is that those people are being counted even though they are not actively playing! to explain it in terms you can understand because you are not understanding me right now! 

                 If people who bought 6 months that are currently stuck in a subscription and don't play could remove their subscription they would do so instantly! Meaning the number currently reported at 1.3 million would be reduced by 1/3 or more! If you can understand this now pls respond! 

    Can you not understand that you are ASSUMING.  I put it in bold for you since you obviously aren't too bright.  You have no basis on anything you are posting and do not know if new people will sub or how many will unsub. 

                    You are still not understanding what I'm saying though! We won't know the real numbers because people who bought 6 month  subs that ARE NOT CURRENTLY PLAYING, are still being counted when they shouldn't be! If you are understanding this pls respond! 

     You have no clue how many people are PLAYING.  Every game counts all subs genius so you are only assuming on the amount.    Wow do i need to use puppets for you to understand something so simple.......

  • killion81killion81 A City, MIPosts: 985Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

     

    It seems like the minority opinion is subs massively increase and it becomes the next WoW... or maybe even the fabled WoW-killer? 

     

    Edit:  I should probably make a note that the above statement is full of sarcasm and that I do not agree with or believe in this minority opinion.

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    I am predicting that Tera will also have a population decline and so will GW2 if they counted subs....  Then again every mmo has a decline because nothing goes up forever.  Not to mention WoW had a few dips before it exploded and even now is proof that all games face down trends.

  • killion81killion81 A City, MIPosts: 985Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by kcypher2000

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    I am predicting that Tera will also have a population decline and so will GW2 if they counted subs....  Then again every mmo has a decline because nothing goes up forever.  Not to mention WoW had a few dips before it exploded and even now is proof that all games face down trends.

     

    It's a little off topic, but I was wondering how you type with your hands over your eyes and fingers in your ears?  Seems like it would be hard to do.

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by killion81

    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    I am predicting that Tera will also have a population decline and so will GW2 if they counted subs....  Then again every mmo has a decline because nothing goes up forever.  Not to mention WoW had a few dips before it exploded and even now is proof that all games face down trends.

     

    It's a little off topic, but I was wondering how you type with your hands over your eyes and fingers in your ears?  Seems like it would be hard to do.

    Nice try at an insult but you still haven't made any kind of point at all.  Oh i get it you are just one of those whiny gamers who hates anything popular.  I bet you never even tried SWTOR and just hate it because its the sheep like thing to do on these sites. 

  • SouldrainerSouldrainer Elmer, NJPosts: 1,857Member

    Originally posted by kcypher2000

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    I am predicting that Tera will also have a population decline and so will GW2 if they counted subs....  Then again every mmo has a decline because nothing goes up forever.  Not to mention WoW had a few dips before it exploded and even now is proof that all games face down trends.

    Perhaps, but hopefully Bioware will take notice of the major things people disliked about 1.2:

    * Gear Changes

    * Expensiveness of Legacy rewards

    * Sweeping rebalance of classes

    *  Decreased Time-to-kill in PVP

    I will be around to see what happens come 1.3 at least.  I still have a lot of fun playing, but BW needs to reflect on this drop in subs or they will be sunk.

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  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    Merge some goddamn servers for one thing. Should have been done months ago seeing as how there were always too many to begin with.

    Actually put forth some serious effort into the lfg mechanics. That should have also been done months ago.

    Try to organize some community events for those still playing and incorporate some things in game for this.

    Get some new management.

    Really there is only so much they can do. The game is what it is. It just appears for some it isn't going to be a long term deal. Given enough time though with some future updates if they keep at it and actually put an effort into trying to build a player community they could be fine. Nothing stellar but certainly not a failure like some think. I don't know though. They did so little in this game to try and have one to begin with. Not sure what the hell they were thinking.

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • kcypher2000kcypher2000 california, CAPosts: 116Member

    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    Originally posted by kcypher2000


    Originally posted by Souldrainer

    I have been saying for months that the population decline needed proof.  Well, here it is.  1.2 was a flop!  Where does SWTOR go from here?

    I am predicting that Tera will also have a population decline and so will GW2 if they counted subs....  Then again every mmo has a decline because nothing goes up forever.  Not to mention WoW had a few dips before it exploded and even now is proof that all games face down trends.

    Perhaps, but hopefully Bioware will take notice of the major things people disliked about 1.2:

    * Gear Changes

    * Expensiveness of Legacy rewards

    * Sweeping rebalance of classes

    *  Decreased Time-to-kill in PVP

    I will be around to see what happens come 1.3 at least.  I still have a lot of fun playing, but BW needs to reflect on this drop in subs or they will be sunk.

    Expensiveness?  I think they are too cheap, do your dailies man money is too easy to come by in SWTOR.  I am not a fan of big changes to classes but as a veteran MMO player I have learned that comes with the territory.  Hell I can't think of an mmo that hasn't pulled this stunt before. 

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