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SWTOR subs dip from 1.7 Million to 1.3

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  • DrakxiiDrakxii Waxahachie, TXPosts: 594Member

    Wonder if all those "loyal" fans that got a free month is in these numbers or not.  I still say they will be under 500k after Aug, 7 month mark with the free month.

    I will not play a game with a cash shop ever again. A dev job should be to make the game better not make me pay so it sucks less.

  • MardukkMardukk Posts: 1,556Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Precusor

    Originally posted by Mardukk

    I don't care what the numbers say.  Log into the game, the servers are dead.  Look at the populations on the planets, down at least 50% since launch. 

     

    If their numbers are correct there are a lot of people paying a sub and never logging in.

    Happens in all MMOs.

    http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/2986509135

    Huh? I'm a "Standard" server and if it's lost this many people that should be of great concern to EA/Bioware.  This is not a case of me being on the only dead server, go look at the server list.

    Whatever, if you have people trying to defend the game at this point they may just be defending it to defend it.

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    They gave everyone a free month and STILL couldn't stop it from dropping 25%?

     

    How is that even possible?

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by Precusor

    Originally posted by colddog04

    Are you implying that the release of those two games will have no effect on SWTOR sub numbers?

    Why would they effect swtor sub numbers? 

    Can people just stop with this myth that "no sub means it won't effect other games"?

    That's absolute bullshit

     

    League of Legends has taken more WoW players than any other game in history.

    People don't quit WoW for Skyrim because Skyrim is a single player game, not because it's free to play.

     

    Now piss off with this terrible lie.

  • PrecusorPrecusor PalmaPosts: 4,733Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Can people just stop with this myth that "no sub means it won't effect other games"?

    That's absolute bullshit

     

    League of Legends has taken more WoW players than any other game in history.

    People don't quit WoW for Skyrim because Skyrim is a single player game, not because it's free to play.

     

    Now piss off with this terrible lie.

    Yore kidding.. right?

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by Myria

    Originally posted by GamerFun



    The game is dying [...]

    1.3 million paying customers, making it easily the second largest western MMO, is... Dying?

    Because, you know, it's not like newly released MMOs typically lose subscribers after a few months.

    They sold 2.3 million copies. They have 1.3 million subs.

     

    THEY LOST 1 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS IN FOUR MONTHS....

    HELLO?!

    ANYONE THERE MAVERICK?!

  • MardukkMardukk Posts: 1,556Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Vorthanion

    Originally posted by Precusor


    Originally posted by Mardukk

    I don't care what the numbers say.  Log into the game, the servers are dead.  Look at the populations on the planets, down at least 50% since launch. 

     

    If their numbers are correct there are a lot of people paying a sub and never logging in.

    Happens in all MMOs.

    http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/2986509135

    Agreed, but it's too early in the game for such a decline.  Yes, even new games will have fluctuations, but they should end up with a net gain at this stage of the cycle.  You'd expect that kind of decline well into the second year of a game.  The anecdotal evidence of lower numbers when people log in can be misleading on many levels and due to different factors, but Mardukk is obvioiusly using hyperbole when he states a 50% decline when he has absolutely no concrete proof.  In fact, If I were to go with his kind of data gathering, when I logged in a couple of weeks ago and started a baby bounty hunter, the instance never had less than 17 people.  That may not seem like much, but when I logged in and started my first toon, an agent, that was the exact number of people in the instance back on release week.  So, you can see that because it's an instanced game and because one faction is more populated than another and depending on the server you are on and at what time of day and which day of the week.....etc, you can come up with all kinds of conclusions that would be absolutely wrong in the greater picture.

    Lol yes, everyone is in an instance or has switched factions that's it!  My concrete proof are my eyes looking at the number as I've logged in every night since launch...

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member

    Originally posted by Teala

    We all know the free month give away and waht not is the only reason theyare saying they have 1. whatever subs.    Idoubt they have even 500k real subs at the moment and how many of those are 6 month subs that don't even play any longer?

    The subs were as of 3/31 they gave away the free month in april.

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by niceguy3978

    Originally posted by Teala

    We all know the free month give away and waht not is the only reason theyare saying they have 1. whatever subs.    Idoubt they have even 500k real subs at the moment and how many of those are 6 month subs that don't even play any longer?

    The subs were as of 3/31 they gave away the free month in april.

    Funny, when we said that about the December 31st report, all the fan boys kept saying "NAH BRO IT'S CURRENT!"

     

    Make up your mind

  • DrakxiiDrakxii Waxahachie, TXPosts: 594Member

    Originally posted by niceguy3978

    Originally posted by Teala

    We all know the free month give away and waht not is the only reason theyare saying they have 1. whatever subs.    Idoubt they have even 500k real subs at the moment and how many of those are 6 month subs that don't even play any longer?

    The subs were as of 3/31 they gave away the free month in april.

    So... before the three month subs were up?

    I will not play a game with a cash shop ever again. A dev job should be to make the game better not make me pay so it sucks less.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member

    Originally posted by Drakxii

    Originally posted by niceguy3978


    Originally posted by Teala

    We all know the free month give away and waht not is the only reason theyare saying they have 1. whatever subs.    Idoubt they have even 500k real subs at the moment and how many of those are 6 month subs that don't even play any longer?

    The subs were as of 3/31 they gave away the free month in april.

    So... before the three month subs were up?

    Yup

     

  • CalmOceansCalmOceans BergenPosts: 2,273Member

    Every MMO seem to drop subs after the first months though. GW2 will do it, Tera will do it, the only MMO I didn't see it happen with was WoW, they kept having to add servers. But then there's only one Blizzard.

  • niceguy3978niceguy3978 Gainesville, FLPosts: 2,000Member

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by niceguy3978


    Originally posted by Teala

    We all know the free month give away and waht not is the only reason theyare saying they have 1. whatever subs.    Idoubt they have even 500k real subs at the moment and how many of those are 6 month subs that don't even play any longer?

    The subs were as of 3/31 they gave away the free month in april.

    Funny, when we said that about the December 31st report, all the fan boys kept saying "NAH BRO IT'S CURRENT!"

     

    Make up your mind

    Erm ok.  Since you quoted me, I'm assuming you think I'm somehow a fanboy since I pointed out something?

     

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by CalmOceans

    Every MMO seem to drop subs after the first months though. GW2 will do it, Tera will do it, the only MMO I didn't see it happen with was WoW, they kept having to add servers. But then there's only one Blizzard.

    Guild Wars 2.

    Drop in Subs.

     

    HAH you a funny guy!

  • CecropiaCecropia The Great White North, ONPosts: 3,471Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by gilgamesh42

    Originally posted by CalmOceans

    I haven't played SWTOR so I could be completely missing the ball here, but I never understood SWTOR's focus on the storyline. Games that tend to focus on story are great games, but they tend to lack replay value, since once you've done it once, you've done it all.

    you sir  just figured out what a team of stuck up over paid game developers could not

    The moment BW started talking about the creation of alts being a big contributor to the game's longevity I knew there was going to be a problem. Some never make alts in mmos and for those that do, how many times can you through the same damn stories over and over again?

    It wasn't until I participated in some of the beta and jumped in on day three of the early access that I could clearly see just how big of a problem BW had on their hands. Piss poor foresight on their part.

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • AxehiltAxehilt San Francisco, CAPosts: 8,682Member Uncommon

    This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

    Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

    Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

    "Joe stated his case logically and passionately, but his perceived effeminate voice only drew big gales of stupid laughter..." -Idiocracy
    "There is only one good, knowledge, and one evil, ignorance." -Socrates

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by Axehilt

    This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

    Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

    Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

    Considering they just lost about 20 million by giving EVERYONE a free month I would say EA isn't very happy right now.

     

    Let's also not forget that they included that free month in these numbers. Diablo 3 comes out on the 15th, Guild Wars 2 following that.... It doesn't look too good for Bioware right now. 

     

    And let's be honest.... Warhammer made a profit....

     

    Oh also, you're not taking into considering the cost of continued development and advertising so... Yeah...

  • PrecusorPrecusor PalmaPosts: 4,733Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Considering they just lost about 20 million by giving EVERYONE a free month I would say EA isn't very happy right now.

     

    Let's also not forget that they included that free month in these numbers. Diablo 3 comes out on the 15th, Guild Wars 2 following that.... It doesn't look too good for Bioware right now. 

     

    And let's be honest.... Warhammer made a profit....

     

    Oh also, you're not taking into considering the cost of continued development and advertising so... Yeah...

    If i recall correctly.. they didn't give everyone a free month and how do you know they added the free month subs into their numbers?

     

    proof plx

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Blackwater56



    Let's also not forget that they included that free month in these numbers. Diablo 3 comes out on the 15th, Guild Wars 2 following that.... It doesn't look too good for Bioware right now. 

    The free month wasn't included in these numbers ...

     

    Personally, 1.3 million as of March 31 is still pretty good.  It sounds like lots of people bought 3 or 6 month game cards and so by next Augst/September things are likely to be much more dire.

  • BerikaiBerikai Columbus, OHPosts: 162Member

    Originally posted by Axehilt

    This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

    Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

    Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

    Out of 2.4 mill sales they probably made 70-80 mill profit max as they only get a portion of the box sales and that's not even counting I believe %35 to LA.So maybe 50 mill profit.The first 30 days are included and when you figure 1.5mill subs at $15x3 month's = about $67 mill you're not even close to breaking even.By the time you figure server cost's and such and more sub bleed they may turn a profit by years end.

     

  • BerikaiBerikai Columbus, OHPosts: 162Member

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Originally posted by Blackwater56





    Let's also not forget that they included that free month in these numbers. Diablo 3 comes out on the 15th, Guild Wars 2 following that.... It doesn't look too good for Bioware right now. 

    The free month wasn't included in these numbers ...

     

    Personally, 1.3 million as of March 31 is still pretty good.  It sounds like lots of people bought 3 or 6 month game cards and so by next Augst/September things are likely to be much more dire.

    The report says on page 7 the 1.3 is as of end of April,which would be after the 30 days reactivation.

     

    Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:

    Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

    call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

    have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

    cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1675578999x0x566984/c10f605c-3487-488e-ad86-b5bb74fe2408/Q4_FY12_Script.pdf

  • PyrateLVPyrateLV Las Vegas, NVPosts: 1,096Member Common

    Originally posted by Berikai

    Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

    call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

    have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

    cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.

    How does the "cycling out" of Casual players from the subscriber base drive up the overall percentage of the paying subscribers?

    That makes no sense at all

     

    Good try at a spin there Mr. Viral Marketerman

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  • vmopedvmoped Athens, GAPosts: 1,708Member

    Originally posted by Berikai

    Originally posted by Axehilt

    This blows my earlier model out of the water in terms of subscriber retention.

    Running the numbers I think I used 1.6m as a baseline and assumed a 30% bleed in customers every month.  Even with that ultra-conservative "the game is dying zomg" style of customer loss, the game broke even after only 3-4 months against their $200MM cost to produce it.

    Sounds like they're doing way better than that and probably broke even on the 2nd or 3rd month and unless they're still running the full team (extremely doubtful) they're swimming in profits.

    Out of 2.4 mill sales they probably made 70-80 mill profit max as they only get a portion of the box sales and that's not even counting I believe %35 to LA.So maybe 50 mill profit.The first 30 days are included and when you figure 1.5mill subs at $15x3 month's = about $67 mill you're not even close to breaking even.By the time you figure server cost's and such and more sub bleed they may turn a profit by years end.

     

    If I recall correctly, the LA portion is 1/3 of net profit.  So the game must make profit for them to collect.  I may be wrong, but this is what I remember.

    Back on topic.  I fail to see how 1.3 million customers is considered a bad thing around here.  Anyone who things any MMO failing is a good thing has little understanding of how these games typically gather funding through investors.  Any game that "fails" (and by that I mean financially, not in the vocal minorities minds) is another blow to investor confidence and thus the potential capitol for the next project.

    Cheers!

    MMO Vet since AOL Neverwinter Nights circa 1992. My MMO beat up your MMO. =S

  • BerikaiBerikai Columbus, OHPosts: 162Member

    Originally posted by PyrateLV

    Originally posted by Berikai

    Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

    call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

    have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

    cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.

    How does the "cycling out" of Casual players from the subscriber base drive up the overall percentage of the paying subscribers?

    That makes no sense at all

     

    Good try at a spin there Mr. Viral Marketerman



    Yea I know,i'm trying to figure that one out myself.I mean didn't they focus on casuals with the game and now they're saying the casuals are cycling out,I mean wtf?

  • Gabby-airGabby-air surrey, BCPosts: 3,440Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Berikai

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins


    Originally posted by Blackwater56





    Let's also not forget that they included that free month in these numbers. Diablo 3 comes out on the 15th, Guild Wars 2 following that.... It doesn't look too good for Bioware right now. 

    The free month wasn't included in these numbers ...

     

    Personally, 1.3 million as of March 31 is still pretty good.  It sounds like lots of people bought 3 or 6 month game cards and so by next Augst/September things are likely to be much more dire.

    The report says on page 7 the 1.3 is as of end of April,which would be after the 30 days reactivation.

     

    Let me provide you with an update on Star Wars:

    Through the end of the quarter, approximately 2.4 million units have sold through. In our last

    call we indicated that we had 1.7 million active subscribers, and as of the end of April we now

    have 1.3 million, with a substantial portion of the decrease due to casual and trial players

    cycling out of the subscriber base, driving up the overall percentage of paying subscribers.http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ERTS/1675578999x0x566984/c10f605c-3487-488e-ad86-b5bb74fe2408/Q4_FY12_Script.pdf

    That's rather odd considering the financial statements are for the period before March 31st. So I guess the free reactivation had a purpose for shareholders. 

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