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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2

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  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by RefMinor
    Originally posted by BadSpock
    Originally posted by MMOExposed

    Wow GW2 had a population drop in beta?


    We are really going to have a conversation about population in a game's beta?
    Really?


     
    It is good thing to keep it on the graph to show the flat earthers that XFire does mirror trends, beta weekend finishes population drops to 0. Some of them are quite stubborn because they cannot string thoughts together so well.


    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".

    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by lizardbones





    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     

    Were not looking for actual numbers, were looking for trends

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,068Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     







    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     

    100% wrong and you keep ignoring all the posts that show you otherwise lizardbones; dross frankly.

    The XFire player numbers being tracked could be used to do what you say without assuming any additional number. You use the official numbers given out by EA e.g. 1M on 23rd December, 1.7M twice, average player hours on different occasions. No assumed numbers necessary.

    The hard bit - if you do make any projections - would be deciding how accurate the projection was.

    Now you may want the total hours played yesterday to the exact second but observers of this thread just go with the trend but I haven't seen anyone of late try to use the numbers in the way you suggest. Sorry to pull you up on that point but we have gone beyond that - if there still were I would be at your side telling them why they shouldn't.

    Next week we may get more data - depends what EA say.

    Maybe EA say 450k and it turns out that XFire is a superb tool at this point in time! Maybe they say 600k - so we have a large margin of error but not that bad. Maybe they say 1.7M in which case we all scratch our heads and look to see exactly what EA said! How many trials?

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by gervaise1


    Originally posted by lizardbones
     



    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".

    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     

    100% wrong and you keep ignoring all the posts that show you otherwise lizardbones; dross frankly.
    The XFire player numbers being tracked could be used to do what you say without assuming any additional number. You use the official numbers given out by EA e.g. 1M on 23rd December, 1.7M twice, average player hours on different occasions. No assumed numbers necessary.
    The hard bit - if you do make any projections - would be deciding how accurate the projection was.
    Now you may want the total hours played yesterday to the exact second but observers of this thread just go with the trend but I haven't seen anyone of late try to use the numbers in the way you suggest. (Sorry to pull you up on that point.) 
    Next week we may get more data - depends what EA say.
    Maybe EA say 450k and it turns out that XFire is a superb tool at this point in time! Maybe they say 600k - so we have a large margin of error but not that bad. Maybe they say 1.7M in which case we all scratch our heads and look to see exactly what EA said! How many trials?


    Then do it. Anyone on these forums, do it. I would like to see it done without assuming any numbers. ** edit starting here ** Calculate a margin of error other than "large". You can't do it and neither can anyone else. There's not enough information there to do it.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by lizardbones


    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".

    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     
    Were not looking for actual numbers, were looking for trends



    Look at gervaise1's post. When you say, "We", make sure you know who you're including in the "We".

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,068Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by gervaise1





    Originally posted by lizardbones

     







    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.



     






    100% wrong and you keep ignoring all the posts that show you otherwise lizardbones; dross frankly.

    The XFire player numbers being tracked could be used to do what you say without assuming any additional number. You use the official numbers given out by EA e.g. 1M on 23rd December, 1.7M twice, average player hours on different occasions. No assumed numbers necessary.

    The hard bit - if you do make any projections - would be deciding how accurate the projection was.

    Now you may want the total hours played yesterday to the exact second but observers of this thread just go with the trend but I haven't seen anyone of late try to use the numbers in the way you suggest. (Sorry to pull you up on that point.) 

    Next week we may get more data - depends what EA say.

    Maybe EA say 450k and it turns out that XFire is a superb tool at this point in time! Maybe they say 600k - so we have a large margin of error but not that bad. Maybe they say 1.7M in which case we all scratch our heads and look to see exactly what EA said! How many trials?








    Then do it. Anyone on these forums, do it. I would like to see it done without assuming any numbers. ** edit starting here ** Calculate a margin of error other than "large". You can't do it and neither can anyone else. There's not enough information there to do it.

     

    Last time you said this I told you I had already done it and the answer came out at c. 20%. Again you ignored the post. Now on Monday we get more data and we can all have more fun. When EA announce that subs are 3M and rising you can come and say how right you were. 

    Edit: And sorry about the we - I mean those people who are not after absolutes, happy now? (Probably not).

    And because I obviously need to be super accurate I had better say that what we have is more complicated than "simple" polling but the analogy is 'good enough' for this forum. Just so you know however.  

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,583Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones



    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     

    Tabula Rasa has 0 subcribers and actual played hours 0.  http://www.xfire.com/games/tr/Tabula_Rasa/

    It'll be intresting to see if you can refute that.

  • BlackbrrdBlackbrrd KongsbergPosts: 811Member

    Originally posted by lizardbones



    Then do it. Anyone on these forums, do it. I would like to see it done without assuming any numbers. ** edit starting here ** Calculate a margin of error other than "large". You can't do it and neither can anyone else. There's not enough information there to do it.

    I have to agree that you can't use the SWTOR numbers to calculate a margin of error, it would end up being so large that a random guess would have a bigger chance of getting the number of players correct.

    I have been following the xfire numbers for AoC for a couple of years and if you get one anchor point that isn't in the middle of a large change in population, you can use that to get a nice ballpark number. Funcom haven't released any actual number of players since ... forever, and I was more interested in the income, so I just calculated the income pr xfire player.

    Anyway, what I discovered was that if you correct the xfire numbers for the number of total xfire players you could predict the income within maybe 20% margin of error for AoC. The xfire numbers after F2P and large changes in the AoC population has made this pretty unreliable.

    My conclusion is that even with a really small number of xfire players for AoC I got a pretty reliable number, the same should be true for SWTOR which has a much larger sample. To me it looks like SWTOR has at least 500k players. The maximum I feel is a bit harder to calculate, so I can only guess that is about 1 million players. The number of subscribers can be higher due to longer subscriptions.

  • digirossdigiross Rocky Mount, VAPosts: 4Member

    I have characters on Shadow Hand which ranks #13 out of 123 North American servers on www.torstatus.net

    The first month SWTOR launched, during primetime the Sith Fleet would have 250+ players.  The current Sith Fleet population during primetime is 110+ players which is a loss of 56% of the playerbase.  Rebel Fleet went from 80+ to 30+.  My guild would have 20+ members online and now just me or 1 other person.  ALL FACTS

    Based on the above statistics SWTOR would have a subscriber base of roughly 750k.

    Yes the naysayers will say, "not all servers will reflect the same statistics."  True, but we can atleast get a close approximation based on a popular server.

    I cannot speak to xfire margin of error, etc. as previously mentioned, but the overall trend is a significant decline in subscriptions.  Bioware/EA is completely full of it to say they have retained 1.7 million subscribers.  Story after story on the boards at MMORPG.com and SWTOR.com of complete guilds and servers as ghost towns.

    Just my 2 cents, and very worried about SWTOR's future.  Why can't anyone come out with a great sci-fi mmo, we have way too many fantasy based.  jeesh.  peace out.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Oh, a continuation of a useless thread claiming the useless data from a useless application has meaning. How useless. Seriously is there anything left to be said?

     

    Yes, what a useless comment.

    Hey Ref, did you like GW2? I was looking for your opinion on it. All I saw was something about Salem 

     

    I restrict my GW2 comments to its collective of fans "The Hivemind". I don't actually comment on the game because I haven't played it, looks reasonably fun, I don't have a total rejection of cash shops on principle so I may play it in future but I doubt it will be the second coming of Jebus. I am currently doing a couple of small beta's, one of which is Salem. awaiting ArcheAge and WoD and an Alpha of an old friend.
  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by RodimusPrime

    wow it's the same three to four haters pounding this horse into sludge. Wouldn't it be easier to take it to PM since tis basically the 4 of you bumping your on thread.  

     

    Thank you for your comment, you seem to be getting to be quite a regular here, I guess it's like when you drive past a car crash, you can't help but slow down to have a look. It's a free forum, no one one makes you click, the title tells you what you are clicking on, there's no excuse.
  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by lizardbones

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by lizardbones


    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".

    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.

     
    Were not looking for actual numbers, were looking for trends



    Look at gervaise1's post. When you say, "We", make sure you know who you're including in the "We".

     

    He can include me, he talks sense.
  • RodimusPrimeRodimusPrime dickson, TNPosts: 114Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by RodimusPrime

    wow it's the same three to four haters pounding this horse into sludge. Wouldn't it be easier to take it to PM since tis basically the 4 of you bumping your on thread.  

     

    Thank you for your comment, you seem to be getting to be quite a regular here, I guess it's like when you drive past a car crash, you can't help but slow down to have a look. It's a free forum, no one one makes you click, the title tells you what you are clicking on, there's no excuse.

    Wow impressed you bumped the thread 3 times in a row. 

  • BigHatLoganBigHatLogan Bellingham, WAPosts: 688Member

    This thread is great, nothing like a little schadenfreude.  +1

    Are you a Pavlovian Fish Biscuit Addict? Get Help Now!
    image
    I will play no more MMORPGs until somethign good comes out!

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by BigHatLogan

    This thread is great, nothing like a little schadenfreude.  +1

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3_DjiLLDfo

  • RasputinRasputin gnaf, AKPosts: 604Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by gervaise1





    Originally posted by lizardbones

     







    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.



     






    100% wrong and you keep ignoring all the posts that show you otherwise lizardbones; dross frankly.

    The XFire player numbers being tracked could be used to do what you say without assuming any additional number. You use the official numbers given out by EA e.g. 1M on 23rd December, 1.7M twice, average player hours on different occasions. No assumed numbers necessary.

    The hard bit - if you do make any projections - would be deciding how accurate the projection was.

    Now you may want the total hours played yesterday to the exact second but observers of this thread just go with the trend but I haven't seen anyone of late try to use the numbers in the way you suggest. (Sorry to pull you up on that point.) 

    Next week we may get more data - depends what EA say.

    Maybe EA say 450k and it turns out that XFire is a superb tool at this point in time! Maybe they say 600k - so we have a large margin of error but not that bad. Maybe they say 1.7M in which case we all scratch our heads and look to see exactly what EA said! How many trials?








    Then do it. Anyone on these forums, do it. I would like to see it done without assuming any numbers. ** edit starting here ** Calculate a margin of error other than "large". You can't do it and neither can anyone else. There's not enough information there to do it.

     

    XFire is the best we got. Almost the only thing we got.

    But seeing its earlier history, where it has predicted the trends of competitors, in spite of their own grossly untrue statements, I am pretty confident in it.

    But then again, I don't want to know the exact number of subscribers down to single-digits, I only want a trend. Whether the current number is 100.000 more or less, doesn't matter to me, when the game claims a number almost 2 millions.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

     

    What on earth is happening to WoW.

  • RusqueRusque Las Vegas, NVPosts: 2,228Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Metentso

     

    What on earth is happening to WoW.

     

     

    Looks like the lull before next xpac comes out. Lots of people are playing on the MoP test server, didn't blizz sell something like 1.4 million annual passes? That's a lot of people who have access to beta.

    Also, pretty much all the lines are trending downward, everyone's just waiting for some of the new stuff to hit. D3 comes out in 11 days, GW2 is on the horizon, Tera is out there. Lots of options + people have leveled and geared their alts means they're waiting or doing something else until MoP.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by Rusque

    Originally posted by Metentso

     

     

    What on earth is happening to WoW.

     

     

    Looks like the lull before next xpac comes out. Lots of people are playing on the MoP test server, didn't blizz sell something like 1.4 million annual passes? That's a lot of people who have access to beta.

    Also, pretty much all the lines are trending downward, everyone's just waiting for some of the new stuff to hit. D3 comes out in 11 days, GW2 is on the horizon, Tera is out there. Lots of options + people have leveled and geared their alts means they're waiting or doing something else until MoP.

     

    But it lost 1/4 of players in 3 days... something happened 1-2 may.

  • SonicTHISonicTHI -Posts: 149Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Originally posted by Rusque


    Originally posted by Metentso

     

     

    What on earth is happening to WoW.

     

     

    Looks like the lull before next xpac comes out. Lots of people are playing on the MoP test server, didn't blizz sell something like 1.4 million annual passes? That's a lot of people who have access to beta.

    Also, pretty much all the lines are trending downward, everyone's just waiting for some of the new stuff to hit. D3 comes out in 11 days, GW2 is on the horizon, Tera is out there. Lots of options + people have leveled and geared their alts means they're waiting or doing something else until MoP.

     

    But it lost 1/4 of players in 3 days... something happened 1-2 may.

    The GW2 effect.

    Edit:

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/349411

    Also i heard that you had to manually add GW2 to xfire for it to register. I dont use xfire myself so i wouldnt know but if true, that s a lot of people that went trough the hassle.

  • obiiobii WienPosts: 779Member Uncommon

    Summer?

    We had 30° here :P

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by obii

    Summer?

    We had 30° here :P

     

    Are you implying that WoW players are the most outdoor-loving persons in all MMO players? :)

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,068Member Uncommon

    Just over 2500 - it will be very interesting to see what EA have to say next week.

     

    As for WoW could it be D3 early access? Those that took up the offer will still be WoW subscribers even if they are playing D3.

    And financially Blizzard are probably happy to have 12 months @ $7.50 and a D3 sale vs. 6 months (or 2 lots of 3 months) @ $15 less discount and maybe a D3 sale.

    To put it in perspective 24M customers playing an average 6 months = a headline 12M subs. 24M customers playing an average 5 months = headline figure of 10M. i.e. customers burning through content quicker. So getting the equivalent of 6 months from people probably makes good business sense. (It will be way more complicated than this but they seem to be seeking to shift the business model away from a pure 'monthly sub' type basis. More like SoE's old access pass.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by Minny

    Originally posted by Metentso


    Originally posted by obii

    Summer?

    We had 30° here :P

     

    Are you implying that WoW players are the most outdoor-loving persons in all MMO players? :)

    Xfire had a huge patch on May 2 2012 om 19:29:46

    All games always loose 10% to 20% a few days after such a patch.

    The mmorpg's don't recuperate the numbers as fewer and fewer MMO players prefer to install the patch and give admin rights to Xfire.

    The last patch happened on Feb 29th and had a similar trend.

    The decline of Xfire has been going on for years now.

    So after a patch some players stop using xFire forever?

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by gervaise1

    Just over 2500 - it will be very interesting to see what EA have to say next week.

     

    As for WoW could it be D3 early access? Those that took up the offer will still be WoW subscribers even if they are playing D3.

    And financially Blizzard are probably happy to have 12 months @ $7.50 and a D3 sale vs. 6 months (or 2 lots of 3 months) @ $15 less discount and maybe a D3 sale.

    To put it in perspective 24M customers playing an average 6 months = a headline 12M subs. 24M customers playing an average 5 months = headline figure of 10M. i.e. customers burning through content quicker. So getting the equivalent of 6 months from people probably makes good business sense. (It will be way more complicated than this but they seem to be seeking to shift the business model away from a pure 'monthly sub' type basis. More like SoE's old access pass.

    I know exactly what they're going to say.

     

    "Most of the 1.7 million as mentioned is still with us and were in a good position to grow after patch 1.2"

This discussion has been closed.