Gw2 hit the same 2 month dip like everyone else, but for different reasons, loot junkies not being panderd to. Then steadily grows to be easily 2nd biggest mmo
Tera big flop, especially in europe
Tsw, slow start, dip due to bugginess, the steady climb, ends up overtaking eve for number 3 slot on most played western mmo (swtor long dead by then)
I still think Tera is a bit underwhelming on the immersion/lore side,
What became immediately obvious to me however when playing Tera and GW2 is how screwed older MMOs are. SWTOR, etc and even WoW look so crap and dull compared to the new crop, this year is actually really exciting for MMO players as it looks like the old guard are about to become old news.
The first part of your post I kept is why TERA is a complete non-factor. The immersion or lore rich games like EQ, EQ2, LOTRO and WoW are 100% unaffacted by TERA. GW2 has a chance to appeal, because arenanet seems to understand that this is important (unlike, for example Trion). TSW as you say is a wildcard.
But VGs f2p conversion will have a greater affect on the 'old guard' than TERA (and I dont think it will be much). The games that stand to lose the most are SWToR and Rift.
Gw2 hit the same 2 month dip like everyone else, but for different reasons, loot junkies not being panderd to. Then steadily grows to be easily 2nd biggest mmo
Tera big flop, especially in europe
Tsw, slow start, dip due to bugginess, the steady climb, ends up overtaking eve for number 3 slot on most played western mmo (swtor long dead by then)
We'll see.
GW2 is already being recieved very well, whether or not people choose to see that. So it already has a strong following. I'm sure it will still have a dip at first, as some people either get the game for the wrong reasons, or don't understand it and end up missing key features. It may grow once people get a better understanding of what type of game it actually is, though.
Tera, I'm not sure if it'll flop. I think it's a niche game, as others have said. It kinda reminds me of FFXI in that way. It has a small, die-hard fanbase that refuses to see anything bad about the game. Given the lower production cost of it as well (a lot of the assests look very much like they were stolen from the L3 project), and I think the game will survive for a while, but it won't be a game with tons of servers. (kinda like aion).
TSW, honestly... so far it reminds me too much of Age of Conan. It has some really cool ideas, and some of the environments look pretty awesome, but it doesn't feel very open. Furthermore, a lot of their features seem somewhat islotated (ie, they are cool, but it doesn't look like they designed the game from the ground up around these features. They almost look like they were designed independantly of one another). If they don't botch the launch (buggy, laggy, and not feature complete), then I think the game follow a similar trend to what most new games have. Strong start, and then a gradual fade in subs.
TERA will have the biggest interest at launch which will quickly decline shortly after. While some things are new it's still largely the same old same old.
really....TERA is at launch...go gauge its interest outside of this website. Talk to Rift and WoW players and see hw many guild members they have lost to TERA vs how many are planning to leave, or play less due to b2p, for gw2...
Not a race at all.. you got fooled to buy GW2, bye bye.. you lost you money.
lol.. have to agree here.. theres no race at all.. and i bet people who bought gw2 will be regreting it soon.
Blind leading the blind.
I'm also confused at catplay because they are saying I got fooled to buy it? How was I fooled? I played it. Not only did I play it but every feature that was there was explained in gritty detail before I even got in with professional reviews and hands-on's.
You should set a date on when soon is. I'm actually going to copy your words. I'll send you a message and encourage others to do so on the date you specify. I'll even send you pics and vids from my adventures. If you wan't I'll attatch review scores too. It'll be like a little postcard from an experience your not getting.
Not a race at all.. you got fooled to buy GW2, bye bye.. you lost you money.
lol.. have to agree here.. theres no race at all.. and i bet people who bought gw2 will be regreting it soon.
Blind leading the blind.
I'm also confused at catplay because they are saying I got fooled to buy it? How was I fooled? I played it. Not only did I play it but every feature that was there was explained in gritty detail before I even got in with professional reviews and hands-on's.
You should set a date on when soon is. I'm actually going to copy your words. I'll send you a message and encourage others to do so on the date you specify. I'll even send you pics and vids from my adventures. If you wan't I'll attatch review scores too. It'll be like a little postcard from an experience your not getting.
lol. Well you can count on this, if they are true mmorpg gamers they will be playing GW2.
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
My predictions having played all 3 (the game I've played the least is TSW having only have a few minutes of hands on time with it at PAX):
TERA will do relatively well at launch and stay steady in sub numbers for the first few months. It doesn't really have enough end game content to sustain subscribers too long (this is based on information I know about the Korean release), but it's also interesting enough that it will pick up new subscribers to balance it out and players who enjoy it's PvP. Expecting this to not break over a million subs, but have a strong enough following that it could be considered a successful game.
TSW needs a lot of work (yes, even in the brief time I've played it). I suspect it will have the same issues at launch as all of Funcom's launches. Abilities won't be balanced, bugs will be numerous, animations will need lots of work, and content gaps will be present. However, TSW is a completely unique experience and it will again get at least average (possibly high) subscribers at launch followed by a period of 6 months to a year and steep decline along with steady growth after that. This game really depends on how fast Funcom can fix the issues that will inevitability crop up with it and how bad the final cash shop really is. It could have anywhere to as iittle as 200,000 subscribers in the first year to as many as over a million.
GW2 will see a high number of purchasers at launch along with very steady growth due to word of mouth (though not having actual subscriptions make this hard to gauge). It will be highly successful. Expect GW2 to be a serious contender against WoW after several years, especially with WoW's continued sub loss. Don't get me wrong, GW2's peak will never reach the level of WoW's peak, but WoW has been in a decline lately and will continue that route.
Other contenders:
Archeage - Going to fill a very large niche and that's it. I still think it has the potential to hit a million subs, but beyond that no way. It's just not going to be popular enough here in the West. It probably won't even release in 2012 anyway.
Blade and Soul - Beyond how beautiful the game looks it's simply just too Eastern to appeal to most people's tastes. It almost certainly will not release in 2012 either.
Further comments:
I heard someone mention GW2's cash shop being expensive. It really isn't. The most I can see a cosmetic player who wants to have all the permenant account unlocks also is $100 the first year and about $40 the next and consecutive years. This is far cheaper than a subscription based MMO. It's worth noting that TSW also has a cash shop that sells very similar items to GW2's cash shop, but we'll have to wait and see for more details on that. I absolutely hate the idea of both games having a cash shop and don't like the advantages GW 2's offer (even though they are minor and most are PvE only) too, so I'm not defending the idea of the cash shop here.
Not a race at all.. you got fooled to buy GW2, bye bye.. you lost you money.
lol.. have to agree here.. theres no race at all.. and i bet people who bought gw2 will be regreting it soon.
Blind leading the blind.
I'm also confused at catplay because they are saying I got fooled to buy it? How was I fooled? I played it. Not only did I play it but every feature that was there was explained in gritty detail before I even got in with professional reviews and hands-on's.
You should set a date on when soon is. I'm actually going to copy your words. I'll send you a message and encourage others to do so on the date you specify. I'll even send you pics and vids from my adventures. If you wan't I'll attatch review scores too. It'll be like a little postcard from an experience your not getting.
lol. Well you can count on this, if they are true mmorpg gamers they will be playing GW2.
lol it'll be fun. Now I wouldn't be so adamant about it if I hadn't experienced it for myself. Believe me, it is an experience. Although the beginning zones are epic and impressive you have no idea what your talking about unless you've reached the later levels. And to think, in the beta we were only allowed up to like level 30 out of 80.
You don't know the feeling of participating in a Dynamic event that threatens the entire zone. DE's that have dire consequences if you fail. The level 20 zone I was in involved battling back hordes that, if left alone, would claim the entire zone.
All 3 are good in my opinion in their own way. It's a great year for MMOs... the first one since what, 2004? The fact that not only we have games trying to break the mold, but we have a great deal of good games (even SW:TOR and Rift can be included here) to chose from. Finally the year of the MMO. Next year looks good too!
Honestly tsw is good, tell you more in a week when nda lifts
gw2 is better though (cept on crafting, dungeons & graphics)
You better mean quantity
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
Tera can take all my money. I have waited for something "new and refreshing" for so long. To me Tera is that game. It may not be for you. Boy am I loving it though. Sitting here waiting to get off work to lvl my 47 Berserker and i can't wait to start spinning my axe!!!! ROAR!
GW2 is very fun also. The pvp is cool. The gameplay sadly feels last generation. Tera took me into the future. If you only played 1 class or even 2 to say lvl 12 in beta as most did. You didnt even play Tera imo. The game starts at 20+. Just cause you liked sorcs in one game, doesn't mean sorc is the class for u in tera. I thankfully was smart and made every class to 20 in betas and i learned what i liked and what i didnt. I learned that every class made it feel like an entirely different game i was playing despite what i was looking at. This game really has me. Fully biased opinion of a hardcore tera loving mmofo!
Hero Evermore Guild Master of Dragonspine since 1982. Playing Path of Exile and deeply in love with it.
Tera can take all my money. I have waited for something "new and refreshing" for so long. To me Tera is that game. It may not be for you. Boy am I loving it though. Sitting here waiting to get off work to lvl my 47 Berserker and i can't wait to start spinning my axe!!!! ROAR!
GW2 is very fun also. The pvp is cool. The gameplay sadly feels last generation. Tera took me into the future. If you only played 1 class or even 2 to say lvl 12 in beta s most. You didnt even play Tera. The game starts at 20+. Just cause you liked sorcs in one game, doesn't mean sorc is the class for u in tera. I thankfully was smart and made every class to 20 in betas and i learned what i liked and what i didnt. I learned that every class made it feel like an entirely different game i was playing despite what i was looking at. This game really has me. Fully biased opinion of a hardcore tera loving mmofo!
I love your post! I wish everyone here was more like you. I'm serious, everyone is always hating on each other and you sir have the spirit that most people are looking for. I salute you and your ambitious desire to go home and play!
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
Yes, the race for second place will be between GW2, TSW and Tera.
Mists of Pandaria will claim first place without any problem at all, none will come even close to the amount WoW sells.
Yeh .. this.
CATA sells what? 3.5M copies in the first month. Can any of these games hit 3M in a month?
To be honest. I wouldnt surprised if GW2 already did. I dont know any numbers, but how many prepurchases did GW2 already sold?
But, it isnt relevant anyway. For me a game is a success if it has a running community without a lot of server merger. And that could be with just 200k subs, hell, even 50k subs or any other number. As long as the developer gets their money back, and has some money for further developing everything is alright.
If you want number, well, than Farmville is the winner. over 60 million subs.. could WoW ever reach that?
And about the 3 games, it is all about preferences, i hope all of them do well. Because all of them look to some extent different enough to be worthwhile. I hate WoW clones. And the time of wow clones should really end rather now than tomorrow.
Originally posted by Apraxis Originally posted by nariusseldon
Originally posted by Valua
Yes, the race for second place will be between GW2, TSW and Tera. Mists of Pandaria will claim first place without any problem at all, none will come even close to the amount WoW sells.
Yeh .. this. CATA sells what? 3.5M copies in the first month. Can any of these games hit 3M in a month? To be honest. I wouldnt surprised if GW2 already did. I dont know any numbers, but how many prepurchases did GW2 already sold? But, it isnt relevant anyway. For me a game is a success if it has a running community without a lot of server merger. And that could be with just 200k subs, hell, even 50k subs or any other number. As long as the developer gets their money back, and has some money for further developing everything is alright. If you want number, well, than Farmville is the winner. over 60 million subs.. could WoW ever reach that? And about the 3 games, it is all about preferences, i hope all of them do well. Because all of them look to some extent different enough to be worthwhile. I hate WoW clones. And the time of wow clones should really end rather now than tomorrow.
Wait for NCSoft conference call and see how well is doing GW2, dont speculate.. GW1 barely can feed anything, without NCSoft money Arenanet was a dead company long time ago.
And GW2 does not gave place in this monthly fee games class.. how many you think will pay to play GW2 per month? If it was, we could have a clear state of the game, but like that..
All 3 are actually good but i prefer TERA over TSW and GW 2. TSW has the problem its from funcom and since the aoc launch days i dont trust them anymore. GW2 has the problem atm that it looks like that endgame has to few rewards and i fear they might fail if it so because they are aiming for the wow players. Thats what most current wow guilds are talking about and i dont wanna play again with the wow community.
Comments
Tera big flop, especially in europe
Tsw, slow start, dip due to bugginess, the steady climb, ends up overtaking eve for number 3 slot on most played western mmo (swtor long dead by then)
The first part of your post I kept is why TERA is a complete non-factor. The immersion or lore rich games like EQ, EQ2, LOTRO and WoW are 100% unaffacted by TERA. GW2 has a chance to appeal, because arenanet seems to understand that this is important (unlike, for example Trion). TSW as you say is a wildcard.
But VGs f2p conversion will have a greater affect on the 'old guard' than TERA (and I dont think it will be much). The games that stand to lose the most are SWToR and Rift.
How can we just disregard Diablo 3?
We'll see.
GW2 is already being recieved very well, whether or not people choose to see that. So it already has a strong following. I'm sure it will still have a dip at first, as some people either get the game for the wrong reasons, or don't understand it and end up missing key features. It may grow once people get a better understanding of what type of game it actually is, though.
Tera, I'm not sure if it'll flop. I think it's a niche game, as others have said. It kinda reminds me of FFXI in that way. It has a small, die-hard fanbase that refuses to see anything bad about the game. Given the lower production cost of it as well (a lot of the assests look very much like they were stolen from the L3 project), and I think the game will survive for a while, but it won't be a game with tons of servers. (kinda like aion).
TSW, honestly... so far it reminds me too much of Age of Conan. It has some really cool ideas, and some of the environments look pretty awesome, but it doesn't feel very open. Furthermore, a lot of their features seem somewhat islotated (ie, they are cool, but it doesn't look like they designed the game from the ground up around these features. They almost look like they were designed independantly of one another). If they don't botch the launch (buggy, laggy, and not feature complete), then I think the game follow a similar trend to what most new games have. Strong start, and then a gradual fade in subs.
Although a great game, its not an MMO and is not competing here. I will be playing both D3 and GW2.
http://www.wix.com/guardiansofthegarter/home
Blind leading the blind.
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
really....TERA is at launch...go gauge its interest outside of this website. Talk to Rift and WoW players and see hw many guild members they have lost to TERA vs how many are planning to leave, or play less due to b2p, for gw2...
Remember the hype for swtor - tsw is swtor done right (but with side note of 2nd best themepark pvp after Gw2)
I'm also confused at catplay because they are saying I got fooled to buy it? How was I fooled? I played it. Not only did I play it but every feature that was there was explained in gritty detail before I even got in with professional reviews and hands-on's.
You should set a date on when soon is. I'm actually going to copy your words. I'll send you a message and encourage others to do so on the date you specify. I'll even send you pics and vids from my adventures. If you wan't I'll attatch review scores too. It'll be like a little postcard from an experience your not getting.
http://www.wix.com/guardiansofthegarter/home
lol. Well you can count on this, if they are true mmorpg gamers they will be playing GW2.
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
wait, tsw is a star wars game?
My predictions having played all 3 (the game I've played the least is TSW having only have a few minutes of hands on time with it at PAX):
TERA will do relatively well at launch and stay steady in sub numbers for the first few months. It doesn't really have enough end game content to sustain subscribers too long (this is based on information I know about the Korean release), but it's also interesting enough that it will pick up new subscribers to balance it out and players who enjoy it's PvP. Expecting this to not break over a million subs, but have a strong enough following that it could be considered a successful game.
TSW needs a lot of work (yes, even in the brief time I've played it). I suspect it will have the same issues at launch as all of Funcom's launches. Abilities won't be balanced, bugs will be numerous, animations will need lots of work, and content gaps will be present. However, TSW is a completely unique experience and it will again get at least average (possibly high) subscribers at launch followed by a period of 6 months to a year and steep decline along with steady growth after that. This game really depends on how fast Funcom can fix the issues that will inevitability crop up with it and how bad the final cash shop really is. It could have anywhere to as iittle as 200,000 subscribers in the first year to as many as over a million.
GW2 will see a high number of purchasers at launch along with very steady growth due to word of mouth (though not having actual subscriptions make this hard to gauge). It will be highly successful. Expect GW2 to be a serious contender against WoW after several years, especially with WoW's continued sub loss. Don't get me wrong, GW2's peak will never reach the level of WoW's peak, but WoW has been in a decline lately and will continue that route.
Other contenders:
Archeage - Going to fill a very large niche and that's it. I still think it has the potential to hit a million subs, but beyond that no way. It's just not going to be popular enough here in the West. It probably won't even release in 2012 anyway.
Blade and Soul - Beyond how beautiful the game looks it's simply just too Eastern to appeal to most people's tastes. It almost certainly will not release in 2012 either.
Further comments:
I heard someone mention GW2's cash shop being expensive. It really isn't. The most I can see a cosmetic player who wants to have all the permenant account unlocks also is $100 the first year and about $40 the next and consecutive years. This is far cheaper than a subscription based MMO. It's worth noting that TSW also has a cash shop that sells very similar items to GW2's cash shop, but we'll have to wait and see for more details on that. I absolutely hate the idea of both games having a cash shop and don't like the advantages GW 2's offer (even though they are minor and most are PvE only) too, so I'm not defending the idea of the cash shop here.
I almost miss the days of eve being the only thing worth playing
tsw will most likely fail based on funcoms track record, funcome is in serious need of new management
gw2 is better though (cept on crafting, dungeons & graphics)
lol it'll be fun. Now I wouldn't be so adamant about it if I hadn't experienced it for myself. Believe me, it is an experience. Although the beginning zones are epic and impressive you have no idea what your talking about unless you've reached the later levels. And to think, in the beta we were only allowed up to like level 30 out of 80.
You don't know the feeling of participating in a Dynamic event that threatens the entire zone. DE's that have dire consequences if you fail. The level 20 zone I was in involved battling back hordes that, if left alone, would claim the entire zone.
http://www.wix.com/guardiansofthegarter/home
All 3 are good in my opinion in their own way. It's a great year for MMOs... the first one since what, 2004? The fact that not only we have games trying to break the mold, but we have a great deal of good games (even SW:TOR and Rift can be included here) to chose from. Finally the year of the MMO. Next year looks good too!
zomg 3 games with literally no end game I am sooooooooooooooooo scared for the future of themeparks
You better mean quantity
I might get banned for this. - Rizel Star.
I'm not afraid to tell trolls what they [need] to hear, even if that means for me to have an forced absence afterwards.
P2P LOGIC = If it's P2P it means longevity, overall better game, and THE BEST SUPPORT EVER!!!!!(Which has been rinsed and repeated about a thousand times)
Common Sense Logic = P2P logic is no better than F2P Logic.
Tera can take all my money. I have waited for something "new and refreshing" for so long. To me Tera is that game. It may not be for you. Boy am I loving it though. Sitting here waiting to get off work to lvl my 47 Berserker and i can't wait to start spinning my axe!!!! ROAR!
GW2 is very fun also. The pvp is cool. The gameplay sadly feels last generation. Tera took me into the future. If you only played 1 class or even 2 to say lvl 12 in beta as most did. You didnt even play Tera imo. The game starts at 20+. Just cause you liked sorcs in one game, doesn't mean sorc is the class for u in tera. I thankfully was smart and made every class to 20 in betas and i learned what i liked and what i didnt. I learned that every class made it feel like an entirely different game i was playing despite what i was looking at. This game really has me. Fully biased opinion of a hardcore tera loving mmofo!
Hero Evermore
Guild Master of Dragonspine since 1982.
Playing Path of Exile and deeply in love with it.
I love your post! I wish everyone here was more like you. I'm serious, everyone is always hating on each other and you sir have the spirit that most people are looking for. I salute you and your ambitious desire to go home and play!
Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.
Three games will be played by the majority in 2012.
World of Warcraft: MoP, Guild Wars 2 & Diablo 3.
Tera, TSW & "Archeage" or whatever its called are small potatoes and overall meaningless to the overall picture.
Yes I know D3 isn't a MMO but it will pull many players of this genre so it should be included.
Playing: Nothing
Looking forward to: Nothing
To be honest. I wouldnt surprised if GW2 already did. I dont know any numbers, but how many prepurchases did GW2 already sold?
But, it isnt relevant anyway. For me a game is a success if it has a running community without a lot of server merger. And that could be with just 200k subs, hell, even 50k subs or any other number. As long as the developer gets their money back, and has some money for further developing everything is alright.
If you want number, well, than Farmville is the winner. over 60 million subs.. could WoW ever reach that?
And about the 3 games, it is all about preferences, i hope all of them do well. Because all of them look to some extent different enough to be worthwhile. I hate WoW clones. And the time of wow clones should really end rather now than tomorrow.
Yeh .. this.
CATA sells what? 3.5M copies in the first month. Can any of these games hit 3M in a month?
To be honest. I wouldnt surprised if GW2 already did. I dont know any numbers, but how many prepurchases did GW2 already sold?
But, it isnt relevant anyway. For me a game is a success if it has a running community without a lot of server merger. And that could be with just 200k subs, hell, even 50k subs or any other number. As long as the developer gets their money back, and has some money for further developing everything is alright.
If you want number, well, than Farmville is the winner. over 60 million subs.. could WoW ever reach that?
And about the 3 games, it is all about preferences, i hope all of them do well. Because all of them look to some extent different enough to be worthwhile. I hate WoW clones. And the time of wow clones should really end rather now than tomorrow.
Wait for NCSoft conference call and see how well is doing GW2, dont speculate.. GW1 barely can feed anything, without NCSoft money Arenanet was a dead company long time ago.
And GW2 does not gave place in this monthly fee games class.. how many you think will pay to play GW2 per month? If it was, we could have a clear state of the game, but like that..
All 3 are actually good but i prefer TERA over TSW and GW 2. TSW has the problem its from funcom and since the aoc launch days i dont trust them anymore. GW2 has the problem atm that it looks like that endgame has to few rewards and i fear they might fail if it so because they are aiming for the wow players. Thats what most current wow guilds are talking about and i dont wanna play again with the wow community.