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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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  • ktanner3ktanner3 lakeland, FLPosts: 4,074Member

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by ktanner3

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by Kaocan

    Anyone have any stats on X-Fire yet for GW2?

    814

    http://beta.xfire.com/games/gw2

     

    Wow. The news just keeps getting better for god's gift to the MMO world.

    It was a limited beta weekend. But I think it's really cute that you're trying equate beta numbers as people who are going to buy the game.

    I think it's cute that you created your account two days ago to defend your precious game. So I guess we all our own thrills.

    Also, quit trying to deflect the fact that SWTORs numbers are at an all time low.

    I'm not the one that brought GW2 up so don't get mad when some of us express our negative views on it. If you're going to express constant negative views on TOR in the TOR forum, then don't get pissy when we express our views about your precious games. Fair is fair.

     

    Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon
    I just want to say thanks for the charts and please keep it up!  Or at least keep tracking the daily numbers in a table or something if that's easier. :)
  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by ktanner3

    It was a limited beta weekend. But I think it's really cute that you're trying equate beta numbers as people who are going to buy the game.

    I think it's cute that you created your account two days ago to defend your precious game. So I guess we all our own thrills.

    Also, quit trying to deflect the fact that SWTORs numbers are at an all time low.

    I'm not the one that brought GW2 up so don't get mad when some of us express our negative views on it. If you're going to express constant negative views on TOR in the TOR forum, then don't get pissy when we express our views about your precious games. Fair is fair.

     

    lol Oh no I created my account recently!!! You're adorable.

     

    Difference is, I've PLAYED TOR, you haven't played GW2

  • ktanner3ktanner3 lakeland, FLPosts: 4,074Member

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    I just want to say thanks for the charts and please keep it up!  Or at least keep tracking the daily numbers in a table or something if that's easier. :)

    I agree.

    Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  • ktanner3ktanner3 lakeland, FLPosts: 4,074Member

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

     

     

    Difference is, I've PLAYED TOR, you haven't played GW2

    And ? I don't need to play GW2 to know that it isn't for me. 

    You might want to save your PR spin for the GW2 forums because right now it's chaos over there.

    Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 kingman, IAPosts: 122Member

    Originally posted by ktanner3

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

     

     

    Difference is, I've PLAYED TOR, you haven't played GW2

    And ? I don't need to play GW2 to know that it isn't for me. 

    You might want to save your PR spin for the GW2 forums because right now it's chaos over there.

    AHAHHAHAHHA. Oh god, I can't breath

  • fadisfadis funkg, GAPosts: 469Member

    2958 on 4/27. 

    Setting records daily... just not the right kind.

    News getting worse and worse...

     

     

  • BigLuvinBigLuvin Somewhere, ALPosts: 11Member

    Originally posted by ktanner3

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

     

     

    Difference is, I've PLAYED TOR, you haven't played GW2

    And ? I don't need to play GW2 to know that it isn't for me. 

    You might want to save your PR spin for the GW2 forums because right now it's chaos over there.



    It actually looks really fun and it will have something I couldn't get from TOR, massive multiplayer.

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,926Member Uncommon

    I'm pretty shocked that BW hasn't been able to crank out cross server group finders and rated battlegrounds.  I think this game is just another addition to the case study of big MMOs that released incomplete.  And since they don't have them even now, they are totally hosing themselves as once they're added, many of the people that were waiting for that functionality may have latched on to GW2, TERA, D3 or TSW.

     

    This game actually has a solid foundation, but I don't see how they can stop the inevitable loss of susbcribers.  A couple of months ago I figured I'd jump back as soon as they added multiplayer space sim style combat.  I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

     

     

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    The key question for this thread is:

    Could the GW2 weekend have accounted for the drop - and the answer must be 'possibly'.

    If so then there should be a corresponding uptick when its all over.

  • ukforzeukforze LiverpoolPosts: 331Member

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    How on earth can it be accurate, when only a percentage of gamers use it!?

     

    Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

    **EDIT**

    Oh & it's also irrelivant how many user/accounts their are, i guarantee a large percentage

    are inactive or dead accounts.

    The Deathstar destroyed planets...Lucas Arts destroyed Galaxies

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  • fadisfadis funkg, GAPosts: 469Member

    Originally posted by gervaise1

    The key question for this thread is:

    Could the GW2 weekend have accounted for the drop - and the answer must be 'possibly'.

    If so then there should be a corresponding uptick when its all over.

    3043 on 4/28.  Typically the 2nd most active day of the week and barely cracks 3000... surely the GW2 beta had a part in the drop, but I still think you're looking at a slowing, but steady decline.  The thing to worry about for TOR - this was only the beta... when GW2 actually launches, I'd expect a much greater impact.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ukforze


    snip

    How on earth can it be accurate, when only a percentage of gamers use it!?

     

    Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

    **EDIT**

    Oh & it's also irrelivant how many user/accounts their are, i guarantee a large percentage

    are inactive or dead accounts.

    Sigh. This has been covered. It is called statistics. It is 'accurate' with a margin of error. Now the margin of error might be 20% but it is not 'out of the ballpark' from what we have observed. And I had better say that the data being tracked is primarily the number of users not the XFire graph you see which is hours played.

    The 'neither I nor any of my friends use Yahoo - so it doesn't exist' argument is meaningless.

    If you want to challenge why the data post something constructive. Others have and so far it stands up. One poster came up with "XFire can't be right because it still has SWG users". A good point - and someone posted that there were unofficial servers out there (which I didn't know).

    So far XFire has tracked. From the Early Access ramp up; a peak that tied in to extra sales that EA reported; every single promotion that EA have run; low numbers that tie into a massive marketing campaign.

    Challenge the data by all means but "I'm a luddite this can't be right" approach - leave it at home.

    No one is claiming that because the XFire number is c. 25% of its highest point SWTOR has lost 75% of its users. It isn't that simple - see posts above. The only people claiming 'absolutes' are people claiming its useless.

     

    Inactive or dead accounts

    I could ask you to prove this but we know you can't. What I will point out however is that SWTOR is a new game. 4 months old. Sleeper accounts used to happen when there were very few games around. Today I don't think they are that common - but other than pointing out that games that report subs / those we can guesstimate from financial reports like Funcom it is difficult to prove either way.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by ukforze

    Originally posted by Thillian

    Originally posted by jmcdermottuk

    Or maybe less people are using Xfire? I don't. I've always thought Xfire is the worst way of tracking MMO populations because not everyone uses it. It's irrelevant.

    Noone uses it? It says 20.000.000 accounts registered and currently there're 130.000 players online. That IS A GARGANTUAL SAMPLE SIZE, in terms of statistics. This is far more accurate than any "election estimates, which are made on 1.000 sample size". Xfire operates at maybe 0.02% deviation,  it is as accurate as mathematics can be. There might be a discussion about what sort of players tend to use x-fire more often than others, but for what it is, it is extremely accurate.

    How on earth can it be accurate, when only a percentage of gamers use it!?

     

    Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

    **EDIT**

    Oh & it's also irrelivant how many user/accounts their are, i guarantee a large percentage

    are inactive or dead accounts.



    Hmmmmmm the force in this one strong is.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ukforze

    snip

     Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

     

    Forgot to add explicitly that the whole concept of 'a margin of error' is that this allows for 'not every gamer using it'. This is behind every shopping survey, the research of new drugs involving patients (some get the new drug, some don't - oh deary me how can the results be accurate we didn't test it on every person with the disease it might not work on Fred ...) 

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Flat week, slightly above 3000. Lowest sunday.

    WoW and Aion seem to be on a descending trend too.

     



  • TheLizardbonesTheLizardbones Arkham, VAPosts: 10,910Member


    Originally posted by gervaise1

    Originally posted by ukforze


    snip


     Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless
    every gamer used it, simple.
     
     


    Forgot to add explicitly that the whole concept of 'a margin of error' is that this allows for 'not every gamer using it'. This is behind every shopping survey, the research of new drugs involving patients (some get the new drug, some don't - oh deary me how can the results be accurate we didn't test it on every person with the disease it might not work on Fred ...) 



    Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.

    It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.

    I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Possible future scenarios and consequences:

     

    SWTOR has offcially 3.000.000+ paying subscribers -> xFire is very worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 2.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 1.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is good to show a descending or ascending trend.

    SWTOR has officially -500.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is a good indicator of general population.

     

    There you have it. We just have to sit and wait.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    3173 today
  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by gervaise1





    Originally posted by ukforze








    snip








     Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

     






    Forgot to add explicitly that the whole concept of 'a margin of error' is that this allows for 'not every gamer using it'. This is behind every shopping survey, the research of new drugs involving patients (some get the new drug, some don't - oh deary me how can the results be accurate we didn't test it on every person with the disease it might not work on Fred ...) 







    Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.



    It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.

     

    We are not sure. That is what this thread is about. You seem to want people to ignore it because it's not perfect, we will see if it is a poor tool or not when EA issue more numbers, it has mirrored trends in other games so it is better than no tool at all (which appears to be your preferred option).

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,578Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones



    Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.



    It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.

     

    Statistical margin of error is: 2,58 * ((p - p ^ 2) / n) ^ 0,5, where

      n = total hours played on X-Fire

      p = presentage of total hours used to play SWTOR

    Counting from X-Fire statistics, n is more than 680 000, p = 2,5555%, and margin of error is 0,05%.

    Calculating that was totally useless since there's a good reason to believe that the sample isn't representative of overall SWTOR's playerbase.

     

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by gervaise1





    Originally posted by ukforze








    snip








     Not a single person in our TS/Guild uses it, so it can never be truely accurate unless

    every gamer used it, simple.

     

     






    Forgot to add explicitly that the whole concept of 'a margin of error' is that this allows for 'not every gamer using it'. This is behind every shopping survey, the research of new drugs involving patients (some get the new drug, some don't - oh deary me how can the results be accurate we didn't test it on every person with the disease it might not work on Fred ...) 







    Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.



    It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.

     

    I did 'have a go' a while - an estimate of the margin of error obviously because the EA data is a) scarce and b) fuzzy. It also depends on what you assume etc. but, if I recall correct;y, I looked at end of year numbers and the February numbers. Came out to about 20%. Is it right - no idea.

    Does this - if it was correct - make it a poor tool. Arguably so - but a tool nevertheless that seems to reflect what is happening.

    Before SWTOR launched it was going to have 2M subs on day 1 rising to 3M by summer etc. EA have not said anything to suggest this is not so - their actions suggest otherwise but they haven't said anything. The poor XFire tool suggests that numbers have tanked however; and that numbers are lower than last week that the patch + promotion hasn't hacked it. Now if you want to know the exact number - sorry wrong thread. 

     

    Edit: Total hours are not very useful but the average hours played, as recorded by XFire, matched the numbers pushed out by EA as well - another example (as covered in this thread) that XFire is 'OK'.  

  • wowfan1996wowfan1996 NonePosts: 719Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Possible future scenarios and consequences:

     

    SWTOR has offcially 3.000.000+ paying subscribers -> xFire is very worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 2.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 1.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is good to show a descending or ascending trend.

    SWTOR has officially -500.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is a good indicator of general population.

     

    There you have it. We just have to sit and wait.

    XFire isn't worthless. SWTOR isn't the first video game that is tracked there and in the past XFire trends for other games were in line with numbers that came from other sources. XFire doesn't count subs. It counts players and hours played. Day-to-day deviations in XFire figures don't reflect changes in subs. But most people don't stay subscribed to games they don't play anymore so in the long term both trends correlate quite well.

    MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member

    Originally posted by Vrika

    Originally posted by lizardbones



    Please calculate the margin of error for XFire. Anyone please calculate a margin of error for XFire. Calculate anything really. There's too much guesswork involved with it. Even the statement "there are fewer players now than three weeks ago" has to be qualified with probably because you can't prove anything with it.



    It's just a poor tool to use to make any sort of point.

     

    Statistical margin of error is: 2,58 * ((p - p ^ 2) / n) ^ 0,5, where

      n = total hours played on X-Fire

      p = presentage of total hours used to play SWTOR

    Counting from X-Fire statistics, n is more than 680 000, p = 2,5555%, and margin of error is 0,05%.

    Calculating that was totally useless since there's a good reason to believe that the sample isn't representative of overall SWTOR's playerbase.

     

    We are not using hours but unique users. 

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by wowfan1996

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Possible future scenarios and consequences:

     

    SWTOR has offcially 3.000.000+ paying subscribers -> xFire is very worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 2.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is worthless.

    SWTOR has officially 1.000.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is good to show a descending or ascending trend.

    SWTOR has officially -500.000 paying subscribers -> xFire is a good indicator of general population.

     

    There you have it. We just have to sit and wait.

    XFire isn't worthless. SWTOR isn't the first video game that is tracked there and in the past XFire trends for other games were in line with numbers that came from other sources. XFire doesn't count subs. It counts players and hours played. Day-to-day deviations in XFire figures don't reflect changes in subs. But most people don't stay subscribed to games they don't play anymore so in the long term both trends correlate quite well.

    That makes sense yes.

    In past experiences, how did it correlate? A 50% drop for instance, in xFire, would be also a 50% drop in the game, after a while?

This discussion has been closed.