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Analysts predict just a 450k drop in Subs until Q1 2013.
Monorojo
Member UncommonPosts: 411
At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2013, the analyst group is predicting a fall in subscriptions to 1.25 million.
That is an amazing retention rate when you think about it, and all the dom and gloom posts here would not lead one to believe that 1.25 out of 1.7 million would stay subbed. That would give SWTOr at 73% retention rate since Januaryy. Many here have been vehemtly stating that sub number are likely already under 1million. Guess that shuts that crowd up eh?
Anyway, good news for Bioware!
Comments
yea...i wonder how many people paid for a year subscription when the game released lol
Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!
lol you believe an analyst. Do you even know what those are?
that's what i wonder since they STILL have yet to release their real retention rate, this was only an estimate, which doesn't invalidate it at all but makes me wonder further. This comes right after the fabled 1.2 patch release no less, wonder how many people unsubbed when they broke that one? oh and people buy the larger sub packs now people even the cards from the stores are all for two months.
This is still obviously no where near what they thought, and not numbers they are happy with. I'm sure they expected millions.
Ummm... zero, given that there is no year subscription option...
Retention rate? You're forgetting the new subscribers.
I believe a real analyst over the armchair analysts you can find here at MMORPG.com (likely blizzard viral marketers). No question about that sir.
Your link does not justify the plural usage of your title.
Name one other MMO, other than WoW, which has ever had 1.2M subscribers.
You guys are all acting like 1.2M subscribers is complete crap, and meanwhile no other game in the history of MMO's has ever achieved even that. Geesh.
What about the constant use of "We" and the fact that is comes from an analyst group. A group would signify more than just one.
no other game in the US maybe
Be the Ultimate Ninja! Play Billy Vs. SNAKEMAN today!
Yep, fair point. I'll re-state.
Name one other "western MMO" that has ever had 1.2M subscribers.
Ummm, wasn't there a release somewhere recently basically stating they were on their way to a million subs? i.e. they have an undisclosed number somewhere between 500k and up?
If so how exactly is this number going to 'fall' to 1.25mil in 9 months?
*edit* or should I say under a mil and falling?
I really wouldn't put much stock into that.
From the link it looks like an analyst from from an outside company. Furthermore it sounds like their predicting this not based off of hard info, but based off the reports EA has been giving out, which many of us know to be rather BS.
Just think of it this way, the 1.7m number they keep floating around is from fairly early in their launch cycle (back when a vast majority of servers were sitting at heavy - full). Now almost no servers are sitting at heavy, let alone full, with most being at light all the time. Now if we go by some of the sites that have tried to quanitify this data, there has been a HUGE drop in population since february. We're talking ~ 50% drop or so if not a little more. The population does seem to have stabilized now. But if their starting number is around 1.7m, then cut that in half, and you have a much more accurate figure to go with.
This still means they'd be sitting at a little less than a mil, though. ~ 800-900k. Which isn't a bad population. But it does mean they are going to have to start merging stuff very soon. Another thing that most of us already know.
I'm sorry but I'll take the word of real anaylsts over armchair analysis like the above any day. Do you believe that these analyst, whose job it is to report numbers and whose credibility depends on the accuracy os said numbers, don't know about xfire and other sties that some kids on MMORPG.com know about?
They have obviously taken these into the equation, and realize like most of us that you cannot do a straight conversion that many here attempt to do.
I predict that Bioware will keep adding in things that will not have much player retention. I predict they will have way more unsubbing and leaving than more coming in. I predict that out of all those 218 servers only a handful will stay above heavy and the rest will be shut down after they make payable transfers available. I predict the game will continue on with around 250k to 300k subs. I also predict all this to start happening pretty fast once WOW's MOP hits, and the release of GW2, TSW and a few other titles. TOR just doesn't have enough staying power because at it's core is nothing more than a SPRPG with COOP features, that sells itself on the box as a mmorpg, but once opened and played the truth is very apparent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trivial_group
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Majestic_plural
A server population drop is likely also partially due to an average subscriber playing less than he used to.
This is likely in part due to people who have quit but not yet cancelled their subscriptions. By definition, there can't be very many such people on launch day.
Some analyst believe that Wow will always be the largest MMO... EAs own analysts believe TOR will have 2 million subs at the end of the year..
Frankly, those things are guesses at best. If TOR have a million subs or more when it have been out for a year it would be wonderful news but there are a lot of unknown factors here...
A lot depends on how good BWs updates are, and even more depends on how other games releasing this year do. GW2, TERA, and TSW can all potentially take a lot of players from TOR.
Let's just wait and see instead.
Losing 450k people is not good news. That is alot of money lost. Where do these people get their ideas from ?
Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!
http://www.grimdawn.com/
Sorry but there is no indication this study was done by a single analyst.
Sounds like gospel to me.
I don't need an analyst to tell me how poorly this game is doing.
There's no way you can predict what's going to happen in a year's time.
TERA and Guild Wars 2 are coming out shortly, and games like Archeage may come out. WoW has an expansion coming out which I know will suck a lot of players back from SWTOR.
The game is crap and feels and looks like a 10 year old game but uses as much system resources as a current game. It's more linear and hallwayed than Matrix Online for crying out loud, and has more instances than any game in history.
TERA may not hurt it much, but Guild Wars 2 and the WoW expansion are both going to send this game into Star Trek Online land, which is to say "basically dead" by Q1 2013.
Besides, nobody has any concrete numbers to go on, and at least half the people playing right now are playing for free.
As for a western game reaching 1 million subs, WAR came close but it botched the opening even worse than SWTOR, and then Lich King came out a month later.
If Mists came out next month I guarantee this game would also be done for. It's only a matter of time.
1.2 million is an outstanding number. So is 500k. So is 300k. Another thing those numbers all have in common is that they were pulled out of someone's ass (the last one by yours truly).