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1.7 million subscribers x $15 =

2

Comments

  • KarahandrasKarahandras Sible HedinghamPosts: 1,673Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.

     

    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.

     

    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

     

    All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.

    Wasn't there a title etc they had to bring in for anyone who continued after the free month? 

  • Zeus.CMZeus.CM ZagrebPosts: 1,788Member

    2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

    1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

    Total= 222 000 000$

     

    So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

  • QuenchsterQuenchster Monroe, MIPosts: 450Member

    Originally posted by thedarkess

    2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

    1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

    Total= 222 000 000$

     

    So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

    It was over $200 million according to the times and $300 million according to a disgruntled ex-employee, so the costs to make the game is somewhere in between those two numbers.

    There's actually less than 1,700,000 paying subscribers. They used the word "active" to discribe people who were on their free month or were paying. They said that most of those were paying their subscription, which could be any number above 850,000.

    I think it is safe to assume that they are below those numbers.

  • BizkitNLBizkitNL Posts: 2,280Member

    How do estimates add up to a factual number?

    10
  • ThorkuneThorkune Eastern, KYPosts: 1,828Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

    Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

  • HricaHrica Mocksville, NCPosts: 1,125Member Uncommon

    does anyone still posting here still play?

     

    and what I mean by play is not just have a sub where you log in and log out, but play hours daily?

    I am just cursios that is all

    My family quit...I really think if Bioware paired with a old school Mythic employees and pushed it themselves they would be better off. O I forgot about uncle Lucas...it's usually his way or high way.

  • avalon1000avalon1000 Kihei, HIPosts: 754Member

    Originally posted by Quenchster

    Originally posted by thedarkess

    2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

    1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

    Total= 222 000 000$

     

    So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

    It was over $200 million according to the times and $300 million according to a disgruntled ex-employee, so the costs to make the game is somewhere in between those two numbers.

    There's actually less than 1,700,000 paying subscribers. They used the word "active" to discribe people who were on their free month or were paying. They said that most of those were paying their subscription, which could be any number above 850,000.

    I think it is safe to assume that they are below those numbers.

     

    $265,325.543.23

  • HamrtimeHamrtime o''fallon, MOPosts: 200Member

    The free 30 days is for active subs AND if you have a character at lvl 50. After patch 1.2 hit Thursday I hit the cancel button. 10 minutes after, they released the news on the free 30 days so I subscribed again. The 30 days kicks in on the next billing cycle (for me its the 18th) so once it kicks in, I will be hitting the cancel button again.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,064Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by thedarkess

    2 000 000 boxes sold (each 60$) = 120 000 000$

    1 700 000 subscribers (15$) x 4 months = 102 000 000$

    Total= 222 000 000$

     

    So how much did it cost to make swtor? Is it 200 000 000$ or 300 000 000$ I don't see much profit yet. Maybe by the end of the year.

    Difficult to correct all the poor numbers / observations in this thread but I will do a few:

    1. 2M boxes sold @ $60 does not equal $120M for EA; last I heard people who make the boxes want paying and people like Amazon who sell the boxes - yep they want paying as well. Funcom reported that for AoC they got c. 20%. Now EA do there own distribution and it will depend on how much they got from retailers + how many Origins sales they had but I was OK with the analysts estimates of $60M for 2M copies sold.

    2. 1.7M x 4 months.

    -  the 4 months includes the 30 days included - so it would be 3 months.

    - as mentioned by RefMinor etc. we have no idea how many have been subbed for '4 months' in fact as only about half were subbed when EA first mentioned the 1.7M number we know it is far less. And then there are the discounts for multi-month subs.

    - EA pay LucasArts, some analysts have put this figure at 35% (that would be $5 of the $15 gone). Put another way for every 2 subs that a game like WoW or Rift has SWTOR needs 3 subs to bring in the same money.

    3. The 30 day promotion isn't really costing EA anything - I am ignoring running costs and what they may / may not still have to pay LucasArts. What it amounts to is lost revenue.

    4. Lots of posts early on about what SWTOR cost. a) what it cost Bioware/EA Bioware b) what it cost EA - which includes a part of the $620M takeover cost c) what it cost EA shareholders who also absorbed the $240M stock options. Analysts may well use c) but for us b) is a better number. Not going to go over old ground but $200M is a very easy number to get to. JR, EA's CEO himself said that they would not have made the investment if they did not expect 1M subs (on a on-going basis).

    Anyway offering 30 days free at this stage in a game that is supposed to pay back the investment primarily via subs is a huge roll of the dice. And if most people are on 7 days or 30 days or a free trial or free weekend then the game has close to zero subs.

  • BloodyVikingBloodyViking TrondheimPosts: 132Member

    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

    Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

    I might have been unclear in that regard. What I meant was that SWG wasnt a big enough cashcow for LucasArt to keep it going at the expense of SW:TOR. So they demanded more money from Sony to keep SWG alive than it was worth in order to shut it down.

    Hence, when SW:TOR isnt a big enough cashcow for LucasArt and a new tempting SW MMO project surfaces my bet is on a "rince-repeat" style corporate play.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Karahandras


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.
     
    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.
     
    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

     

    All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.

    Wasn't there a title etc they had to bring in for anyone who continued after the free month? 

     

    Sucker
  • nikoliathnikoliath YPosts: 1,154Member

    Originally posted by BizkitNL

    How do estimates add up to a factual number?

    they don't. here is my estimate to counter the OP's;

     

    Potato 1 RAM = cheeselicking

    money found in hedge = 200,000,000,000,000

    money spent on surfing slugs = 500,000,000,000,000

     

    ...not doubt in my mind, SWTOR is in financial trouble.

     

    It's a well know fact that any MMORPG released in the last 47 years has failed hard if they haven't made a 20 digit profit within 3  months of launch.

  • eyeswideopeneyeswideopen Fresno, CAPosts: 2,414Member

    It's nothing but a smoke screen to keep investors from bailing after seeing a massive exodus.

    "No, noone is leaving. Look, everyone is still subbed another month!!"

     

    -Letting Derek Smart work on your game is like letting Osama bin Laden work in the White House. Something will burn.-
    -And on the 8th day, man created God.-

  • red_cruiserred_cruiser Milwaukee, WIPosts: 472Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by zimboy69

    you know if star wars  had of gone the b2p model they probably had doubled  the  box  sales  

     

    and be in a better situation than they are now

    Especially considering the way the game ended up playing out.

  • grimfallgrimfall Missouri City, TXPosts: 1,155Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by gervaise1

     

    Difficult to correct all the poor numbers / observations in this thread but I will do a few:

    1. 2M boxes sold @ $60 does not equal $120M for EA; last I heard people who make the boxes want paying and people like Amazon who sell the boxes - yep they want paying as well. Funcom reported that for AoC they got c. 20%. Now EA do there own distribution and it will depend on how much they got from retailers + how many Origins sales they had but I was OK with the analysts estimates of $60M for 2M copies sold.

    2. 1.7M x 4 months.

    -  the 4 months includes the 30 days included - so it would be 3 months.

    There is no 4 months.  The 1.7 million is for the end of period report, which was December 31, 2011.  At that point they had not received any suscription money. They also had already sold 300K (roughly) more games, assuming that there wasn't a big rash of players that bought the game and cancelled it within a week.  Maybe it's 6 weeks (Feb 1st), not 100% sure on their responsibilities for the timing of comments.

     

    Unfortunately the industry isn't in the habit of reporting the # of subscribers for MMO's, so unless the number is seen as "good news" by EA, it's unlike they will report it again.
  • grimfallgrimfall Missouri City, TXPosts: 1,155Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by bigsmiff

    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

    Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

    because... it wasn't good enough.  Metacritic average of the game and it's expansions was a 72 (rounded up).  TOR = 85.

  • BloodyVikingBloodyViking TrondheimPosts: 132Member

    Originally posted by grimfall

    Originally posted by bigsmiff


    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough

    Wrong. They shut down SWG because it was a competitor to the new kid in town.

    because... it wasn't good enough.  Metacritic average of the game and it's expansions was a 72 (rounded up).  TOR = 85.

    This is not at its basis about good or bad. It's about making "some" money or "shitloads" of money. SWG might have a worse score than TOR, but that in itself was not what made them flush the toilet. It's all about the money or a lack thereof.

  • IlayaIlaya BochumPosts: 417Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by hh33

    My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

    1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

    Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    They stated more than 1 time:

     "We need 500.000 subcribers to keep the Game alive and healthy"

    Now....

    Calculate again. And....again perhaps....and you have proof of your fail mate.

  • tixylixtixylix gfff, TNPosts: 1,208Member Uncommon

    Funny how people forget how much staff cost.

  • GravargGravarg Harker Heights, TXPosts: 3,332Member Uncommon

    yay for doom and gloom...If you like the game play it, if not stfu and go play something else....I think people forget when it comes to games, especially MMOs almost everything is opinion, not fact.  If you don't LIKE something that's an opinion, not a fact.  If you do like something, that's and opinion too.  Only thing with facts about games is if something is broken or soemthing like that.  Whether YOU like it or not is totally irrelevant.  I've played numerous games that "critics" and alot of people hated, but I absolutely loved...Play it, if you like it, play it.  If you don't like it, stfu and go play something you do like.  /rant :)

  • XthosXthos Columbus, OHPosts: 2,628Member

    Well pro or con, you gotta remember they gotta pay Lucas, someone had that at 30%, but i don't know if that is real or just pulled out of no where....Either way it isn't cheap though, I guarantee that.

     

  • Ambros123Ambros123 Neverneverland, TNPosts: 877Member

    Originally posted by Ilaya

    Originally posted by hh33

    My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

    1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

    Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    They stated more than 1 time:

     "We need 500.000 subcribers to keep the Game alive and healthy"

    Now....

    Calculate again. And....again perhaps....and you have proof of your fail mate.

    I could have sworn they said 200k subs to keep the game going and healthy, this was a pre-release statement.

  • CorehavenCorehaven Colorado Springs, COPosts: 1,538Member

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    What are you talking about.  He's referencing the free month.  And what they are giving up by doing it.  So his math is absolutely entirely sound except for the fact I dont believe the game probably has 1.7 million. 

     

    Box subs wouldnt factor into that.  Nor would every single month.  Because he's just talking about the one month. 

     

    Its hilarious when people try to be sarcastic with "nice math. lol " when they're entirely off in left field themselves, not the other way around.

  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,899Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by hh33

    My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

    1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

    Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    What exactly are you trying to say? If I read it one way you seem to be saying 25 mil a month is bad (if so image), if I read it another you're saying they lost 1.7 mil of their customers. Again the same emote seems fitting.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

  • DistopiaDistopia Baltimore, MDPosts: 16,899Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Corehaven

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    What are you talking about.  He's referencing the free month.  And what they are giving up by doing it.  So his math is absolutely entirely sound except for the fact I dont believe the game probably has 1.7 million. 

     

    Box subs wouldnt factor into that.  Nor would every single month.  Because he's just talking about the one month. 

     

    Its hilarious when people try to be sarcastic with "nice math. lol " when they're entirely off in left field themselves, not the other way around.

    The op didn't mention the free month at all, how is anyone supposed to know what he's talking about, when he doesn't even mention the most important part of what he's talking about?

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson

    It is a sign of a defeated man, to attack at ones character in the face of logic and reason- Me

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