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1.7 million subscribers x $15 =

hh33hh33 chicago, ILPosts: 55Member

My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

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Comments

  • Cthulhu23Cthulhu23 Tempe, AZPosts: 994Member

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by hh33

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    i doubt EA will go f2p -- their other mmos UO, DAOC, Warhammer are not f2p

  • Don-QuixoteDon-Quixote Sant Pol de MarPosts: 87Member

    How was it?

    Oh, yeah:

     

    SW:TOR, the only MMO with 100% retention rate.

  • hh33hh33 chicago, ILPosts: 55Member

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    Ok, I'll entertain you then. 

    SWTOR production cost (best estimates) = $200 million

    SWTOR box sales estimated at 2.1 million @ $50 avg price = $105,000,000

    1.7 million subs @ $15 from Jan 20 - March 20 (1st month was free) = $51,000,000

    Now go ahead and figure in capital gains, payroll, advertising, production, operational and about 250 other costs that will have easily cost around 60% of that $51 million they banked. Im being extremely generous with that estimate since the best large scale businesses in the world run at a profit margin of around 6-8% when the dust settles.

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

  • Cthulhu23Cthulhu23 Tempe, AZPosts: 994Member

    Originally posted by hh33

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

    Or....they feel pretty good about their odds of turning a profit, so they're showing their subscribers that they appreciate having them.  Considering they stated before launch that they need to have 500k active subs to make a profit on this game, and are sitting around 1.7 million, I'd say there's a good chance that this is a "thank you" more than a move out of panic.  

    Or do you have some kind of inside info for all this BS you are spouting?   Either way, there's one way to find out who's right and who's wrong:  You predicted the game would be F2P by December.  I'm marking that prediction right now.  Let's see if you're right.  If you aren't, will you come back here and admit your prediction was wrong?  Somehow, I doubt it.

    Also, if they were really in panic mode about recouping their money and turning a profit, would they really be willing to give up 22.5 million?  C'mon...be at least a little bit logical.

     

  • troublmakertroublmaker St. George''s, NFPosts: 337Member

    Originally posted by hh33

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    Ok, I'll entertain you then. 

    SWTOR production cost (best estimates) = $200 million

    SWTOR box sales estimated at 2.1 million @ $50 avg price = $105,000,000

    1.7 million subs @ $15 from Jan 20 - March 20 (1st month was free) = $51,000,000

    Now go ahead and figure in capital gains, payroll, advertising, production, operational and about 250 other costs that will have easily cost around 60% of that $51 million they banked. Im being extremely generous with that estimate since the best large scale businesses in the world run at a profit margin of around 6-8% when the dust settles.

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

    The game did not cost $200M to make.  $200M includes the cost of advertising.

    All of the infrastructure for the game is wrapped into that $200M number.  The only real costs they have now are taxes and payroll.  With a studio of 100 people with an average salary of $100,000/year their costs up to March would be $4,000,000/// mot $51M.

    EA has been in panic about the game since launch when they didn't do the 5M sales numbers they thought they were getting.

    Edit: To further elaborate the big gaming corporations always have to make hits.  Each game they make has to exceed $300M in sales or the company as a whole risks a free fall.  If they have two failures in a row they are done in.  THQ had two misses in a row, Space Marine and Red faction.  The company free fell.

    Website: http://www.thegameguru.me / YouTube:

  • hh33hh33 chicago, ILPosts: 55Member

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    Originally posted by hh33

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

    Or....they feel pretty good about their odds of turning a profit, so they're showing their subscribers that they appreciate having them.  Considering they stated before launch that they need to have 500k active subs to make a profit on this game, and are sitting around 1.7 million, I'd say there's a good chance that this is a "thank you" more than a move out of panic.  

    Or do you have some kind of inside info for all this BS you are spouting?   Either way, there's one way to find out who's right and who's wrong:  You predicted the game would be F2P by December.  I'm marking that prediction right now.  Let's see if you're right.  If you aren't, will you come back here and admit your prediction was wrong?  Somehow, I doubt it.

     

    They feel good about their odds? That is called speculation and EA/Bioware is entitled to operate as they please if they think that is what is going to best serve their business model for sucess.

    Dont get me wrong, I dont want the venture to fail since it will cripple indie developers with an original product looking for investment capital. If SWTOR goes down the drain quickly then investors at the institutional level are going to bail out of the sector in droves.

    However, my numbers are probably not that far off and sorry to say it, but you do not hand over a substantial revenue amount like this unless your company, project or whatever is in dire straits.

  • zimboy69zimboy69 chicargo, FLPosts: 378Member Uncommon

    you know if star wars  had of gone the b2p model they probably had doubled  the  box  sales  

     

    and be in a better situation than they are now

    image

  • davestr1zldavestr1zl MelbPosts: 218Member

    Originally posted by hh33

    My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

    1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

    Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    You seriously think if they were in that much trouble they would willingly quite literally throw away 25 million dollars? Yeh.. no


    Originally posted by hh33

    However, my numbers are probably not that far off and sorry to say it, but you do not hand over a substantial revenue amount like this unless your company, project or whatever is in dire straits.

    If your company, project or whatever is in such dire straits, throwing away an additional 25 million dollars wouldnt even be close to being considered as an option.

  • cloud8521cloud8521 Toronto, ONPosts: 878Member

    its a marketing move meant to  keep the declines from happening so people think they have a feree extra so they feel more relaxed and are elss likely to unsub later meaning  that  they will retain  more  subs.  and even possibly gain some though looking generous.

     

    you guys may see it as  oh they are    not getting 25,000,000 this month... but  maybe they will get more in thelong run because of this

  • mikahrmikahr ZagrebPosts: 1,066Member

    Originally posted by davestr1zl

    Originally posted by hh33

    My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.

    1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.

    Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.

    F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.

    You seriously think if they were in that much trouble they would willingly quite literally throw away 25 million dollars? Yeh.. no


    Originally posted by hh33



    However, my numbers are probably not that far off and sorry to say it, but you do not hand over a substantial revenue amount like this unless your company, project or whatever is in dire straits.

    If your company, project or whatever is in such dire straits, throwing away an additional 25 million dollars wouldnt even be close to being considered as an option.

    And this is the point where natural answers arise:

    a) they dont have nearly that amount of subs, and their projection of what number of subs they will have after 4 months mark (1+3) is not looking good at all

    b) they number crunched that after 1+3 months mark its less loss to give everyone still playing 30 free days, even retain some people that woulndt retain sub/play otherwise in the process than go on marketing campaign to aquire new customers

    c) so no, they are not really trowing 25 million away, number is much much less

    d) they still lose money which doesnt really bode well for future

    e) that loss will show up as marketing cost in their report anyway, but its not really fooling anyone any more

  • karmathkarmath Posts: 829Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by hh33

    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    Ok, I'll entertain you then. 

    SWTOR production cost (best estimates) = $200 million

    SWTOR box sales estimated at 2.1 million @ $50 avg price = $105,000,000

    1.7 million subs @ $15 from Jan 20 - March 20 (1st month was free) = $51,000,000

    Now go ahead and figure in capital gains, payroll, advertising, production, operational and about 250 other costs that will have easily cost around 60% of that $51 million they banked. Im being extremely generous with that estimate since the best large scale businesses in the world run at a profit margin of around 6-8% when the dust settles.

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

    Dont forget interest on monies used from investors/banks for development and tax. Those two items alone would of ate the box sales by a massive amount if not entirely when we are talking 200 million +. 

  • AbrexusAbrexus Harrisburg, PAPosts: 39Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by karmath

    Originally posted by hh33


    Originally posted by Cthulhu23

    What in the hell are you talking about?  You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw.  And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.  

    Nice math.  lol.

     

    Ok, I'll entertain you then. 

    SWTOR production cost (best estimates) = $200 million

    SWTOR box sales estimated at 2.1 million @ $50 avg price = $105,000,000

    1.7 million subs @ $15 from Jan 20 - March 20 (1st month was free) = $51,000,000

    Now go ahead and figure in capital gains, payroll, advertising, production, operational and about 250 other costs that will have easily cost around 60% of that $51 million they banked. Im being extremely generous with that estimate since the best large scale businesses in the world run at a profit margin of around 6-8% when the dust settles.

    I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.

    Dont forget interest on monies used from investors/banks for development and tax. Those two items alone would of ate the box sales by a massive amount if not entirely when we are talking 200 million +. 

    Also, don't forget about Uncle George!

    • Take care, young ladies, and value your wine.
    • Be watchful of young men in their velvet prime.
    • Deeply they'll swallow from your finest kegs,
    • Then swiftly be gone, leaving bitter dregs.
  • MackehMackeh LondonPosts: 164Member

    When it goes F2P some people will still argue that it has been a total success, it's pointless arguing, I meet people like this all the time, they just don't have the mental capacity to look at situations and see the reality of them.

    It's clear as day that SWTOR has failed in a massive way and EA are in full on panic mode trying to keep the numbers up for the next shareholders report. 

  • n3v3rriv3rn3v3rriv3r NowherePosts: 349Member Uncommon

    1.7 mil is not a fact - we cannot confirm this numbers with empirical data and I think it is only a marketing strategy. This last is a speculation too btw.

  • DignaDigna City, CTPosts: 2,014Member Uncommon

    If they still had 1.7M active and paying subs, they would not be giving away a free month at this stage of the game (pun intended)

  • BloodyVikingBloodyViking TrondheimPosts: 132Member

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.

     

    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.

     

    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

  • Twisted77Twisted77 Bear, DEPosts: 75Member
    Forgot royalties, typically they run 6% of Gross revenue for a consumer brand (eg putting brand logo on your phyisical product). Lucas probably takes 10-20%.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.
     
    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.
     
    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

     

    All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.
  • donpopukidonpopuki Dearborn, MIPosts: 591Member

    Has it occured to anyone that the time span they expect to recup their money and plan to make a profit is longer than 3 months? 

  • DeeweDeewe Long Beach, CAPosts: 1,965Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.

     

    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.

     

    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

     

    All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.

    I seriously doubt they have even one million subs by now:

     

     Star Wars: The Old Republic was built to thrive in a WoW world






    Quote:







    Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.

    Ahem: aren't you supposed to have 1.7 million subscribers?

  • wowfan1996wowfan1996 NonePosts: 719Member


    Originally posted by Deewe
    Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.
    I lol'd. 1.2 and giving free time to everyone and their dog barely helped at all. Just look at torstatus.net - total light trend might be back to where it was a month ago but total heavy/full trends haven't rebounded at all.
     
    If that's 1m active subs then their average subscriber plays the game 10 minutes a day.
     

    MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).

  • AdamTMAdamTM Frankfurt Am MainPosts: 1,376Member

    An interesting observation is that the metacritic user score has been steadily falling since January (6.1) untill now (5.7).

    Apparently people are dedicated (angry?) enough to vote on metacritic 3 months down the line.

     

    With most games the trend is that the score stabilizes past month one as the initial wave of 10/0-trolls ebbs off.

    image
  • davestr1zldavestr1zl MelbPosts: 218Member

    Originally posted by Deewe

    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by BloodyViking

    Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.

     

    Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.

     

    SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.

     

    All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.

    I seriously doubt they have even one million subs by now:

     

     Star Wars: The Old Republic was built to thrive in a WoW world







    Quote:







    Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.

    Ahem: aren't you supposed to have 1.7 million subscribers?

    The stated goal there is long-term. The 1.7 million subscribers (whether true or not) is in the very short term.

  • altair4altair4 SkelleftePosts: 158Member

    Originally posted by wowfan1996

     




    Originally posted by Deewe

    Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.





    I lol'd. 1.2 and giving free time to everyone and their dog barely helped at all. Just look at torstatus.net - total light trend might be back to where it was a month ago but total heavy/full trends haven't rebounded at all.

     

    If that's 1m active subs then their average subscriber plays the game 10 minutes a day.

     

     

    The trends on Torstatus get messed up when servers are down cause it then registers a drop in light status since it says offline instead of light. It's not noticeable on heavy and full of course, since they are at the bottom already. :)

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