Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Fuzzy Avatars Solved! Please re-upload your avatar if it was fuzzy!

Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

1565759616273

Comments

  • Ambros123Ambros123 Neverneverland, TNPosts: 877Member

    Originally posted by Shakes420

    So are people leaving Swtor or are people leaving x-fire?

    Doesn't mean anyone is leaving, only shows there is a reduced amount of hours played which can be interperated as a loss of subs however it doesn't 100% mean that.  Some might just be playing less of said game.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Ambros123


    Originally posted by Shakes420

    So are people leaving Swtor or are people leaving x-fire?

    Doesn't mean anyone is leaving, only shows there is a reduced amount of hours played which can be interperated as a loss of subs however it doesn't 100% mean that.  Some might just be playing less of said game.

     

    Metentso's graph is of daily users not hours played, some might have reduced their gameplay to a point where they are playing on less and less days, but it could also be argued that that behaviour is more likely to lead to leaving the game too, either way it is not a good metric for a 3 month old game.
  • Fed1Fed1 Roaburg, VAPosts: 167Member

    Originally posted by gervaise1

    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

    To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments: 

    We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.

    People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.

    For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.

    What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.

    Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.  

    Again for anyone who has had an introductory course in stats. In your opinion does not make it so. Try to get a paper published with without a true random sample and see what happens.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by gervaise1


    Originally posted by Fed1



    Originally posted by RefMinor



     
     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

    To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments: 

    We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.

    People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.

    For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.

    What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.

    Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.  

    Again for anyone who has had an introductory course in stats. In your opinion does not make it so. Try to get a paper published with without a true random sample and see what happens.

     

    Why are XFire users who play SWTOR markedly different from other XFire users?
  • Fed1Fed1 Roaburg, VAPosts: 167Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by Fed1

    Originally posted by gervaise1


    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

    To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments: 

    We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.

    People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.

    For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.

    What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.

    Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.  

    Again for anyone who has had an introductory course in stats. In your opinion does not make it so. Try to get a paper published with without a true random sample and see what happens.

     

    Why are XFire users who play SWTOR markedly different from other XFire users?

    For one,  XFIRE main use was at one point for FPS fans to get together with friends. One would assume there is a disportionately  large amount of FPS fans.To be sure I would have to draw a random sample :-)  I am sure there are others

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Fed1:

    Someone persisted in arguing that it was not random. Whether it is > feel free to take your pick doesn't  matter however because you end up discussing that the unknown bias and margin of error in a random sample will be different from if it is >.

    As we do not know what the bias and error is so what? So it doesn't matter whether my opinion is  valid or not.

    You continue to try and insult people and in doing so continue to demonstrate that you don't know what you are on about.  Random samples are not the be all and end all -  medical research is just one obvious area.

    I have 101 in statistics and a lot more besides - but, like I say, in this case it doesn't matter whether it is random or not.  The fact remains that XFire continues to perform "as one would expect". Join the discussion; stop acting like a fool.

     

    The FPS issue has been covered by the way; time moves on and you only have to look at the current mix of games that XFire tracks.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Shakes420

    So are people leaving Swtor or are people leaving x-fire?

    One of the good questions and way to hard for this thread :) What we have is not actually   'a sample'  but a series of time based observations on a shifting population. Given the unknowns it is why I suggest we stick with a "non-quantative" approach - keep applying the common sense check! And doing so continues to support that whilst we may not know how good the data is it is to good to simply dismiss.

     It will be very interesting to see what EA say when they announce their results; somehow I doubt we will get a SWTOR has X subscribers however.

  • wowfan1996wowfan1996 NonePosts: 719Member

    OMG, 146 pages of beating a dead horse. Even for nerd forums it's a bit too much.

    You may like XFire or hate it but you can't deny that SWTOR peaked *there* in the late December of the last year. It's been three months since then. And about XFire being a reliable source... come on, people, it's is far from the only indicator of SWTOR popularity decline. Just look at torstatus.net. Peace.

    MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).

  • RasputinRasputin gnaf, AKPosts: 604Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by wowfan1996

    OMG, 146 pages of beating a dead horse. Even for nerd forums it's a bit too much.

    You may like XFire or hate it but you can't deny that SWTOR peaked *there* in the late December of the last year. It's been three months since then. And about XFire being a reliable source... come on, people, it's is far from the only indicator of SWTOR popularity decline. Just look at torstatus.net. Peace.

    I only have 73 pages. I suggest you increase the number of posts per page.

  • MonorojoMonorojo San Diego, CAPosts: 411Member

    You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

     

    I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

  • SkuzSkuz WorcesterPosts: 1,034Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Monorojo

    You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

     

    I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

    And almost everyone I know that left will not be returning for 1.2, I think that BioWare will definitely get some returning for 1.2 but I also think that they will be bitterly disappointed by how many that turns out to be.

  • GMan3GMan3 Ewa Beach, HIPosts: 2,127Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Originally posted by GMan3

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

    Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

    In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

        So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

    "If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  • BardusBardus Cornet, ALPosts: 460Member

    Originally posted by Skuz

    Originally posted by Monorojo

    You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?

     

    I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?

    And almost everyone I know that left will not be returning for 1.2, I think that BioWare will definitely get some returning for 1.2 but I also think that they will be bitterly disappointed by how many that turns out to be.

    Wonder how many will come back for the 'can opener man armor set' or so they can have a force choking, lighting throwing jumping bounty hunter? 

     

    1.2 does have some good things although everyone should of been standard at launch. I love seeing 1.2 being hyped when it's all standard features.  What I don't see in 1.2 is addressing the core defect which is social aspects that might actually get everyone to call it a MMO. Whatever 1.2 does bring there is still no long term hook to keep the game from bleeding subs IMO.

    image

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by GMan3

    Originally posted by Metentso


    Originally posted by GMan3

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

    Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

    In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

        So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

    Second amongst subscription based games on the XFire chart - so ignoring LoL etc.

    Key points: SWTOR was expensive to make and EA have said that they would not have made the investment if they didn't believe they could get/,aintain 1M subs - a number which will include recouping EA's investment. On an on-going basis - if they write off the investment - they can break even / make a profit on 500k (break even point put at c. 350k by some analysts).

    One reason the numbers of subs needed is high will be because of the royalty payment to LucasArts - put at 35% by some analysts. So 300k subs in SWTOR would be equal - in profit terms - to 200k in WoW.

    The game is some way off 4 months old and at that point people who opted for a 3 month sub will decide whether to renew or not; could be ugly.

    Content in SWTOR will only be added slowly - the voice over stuff takes time; quarterly content drops are planned but many seem less than impressed by the new content in 1.2. That is speculation however.

    Any evidence that games grow after the 6 month mark? I can think of a lot that don't appear to have done so - we don't get many official figures of course. And at a time of growing F2P, faster consumption of content, the growth of browser games etc. , lots of new games coming out - both mmo and others e.g. Star Wars Kinnect. Tough markey out there.

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by GMan3

    Originally posted by Metentso


    Originally posted by GMan3

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

    Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

    In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

        So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place.  Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old.  Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.

    Well in 3 months it has lost 70% of the xFire players, so...

    1.2 will probably stop the decline, otherwise it would be fighting with Aion for the 2nd MMO place in may.

    About having twice the number of players of Aion, which sounds big, it depends on the magnitude of the numbers. If one game has 1 player, and another game has 2 players, it has twice. In this case it's 2.000 and 4.000.  Actually, 1.879 and 3.587 today, a difference of 1.700 players. SWTOR has lost 8.000 in 3 months and it's losing around 200-300 every week now.

    Also consider that SWTOR had the biggest budge in history, and was going to change MMOs forever. If xFire numbers has any relation with total number of subscriptions (i said "if"), it's not looking pretty.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Comparing any 'new' game to an 'old' one also ignores the fact that - in most cases - new games lose subs faster than old games. Like used car values; a new car may lose 40 % of its value once it is out of the show room but only another 10% or so in the following year.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Rasputin


    Originally posted by wowfan1996

    OMG, 146 pages of beating a dead horse. Even for nerd forums it's a bit too much.
    You may like XFire or hate it but you can't deny that SWTOR peaked *there* in the late December of the last year. It's been three months since then. And about XFire being a reliable source... come on, people, it's is far from the only indicator of SWTOR popularity decline. Just look at torstatus.net. Peace.

    I only have 73 pages. I suggest you increase the number of posts per page.

     

    I only have 49, page numbers are not a reliable source of a threads popularity.
  • superniceguysuperniceguy AnchorheadPosts: 2,278Member Uncommon

    I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird image

    They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by superniceguy

    I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird image
    They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

     

    No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.
  • tixylixtixylix gfff, TNPosts: 1,208Member Uncommon

    Funny how they haven't announced subscription numbers and all the servers never go past standard or light anymore. I resubbed to see what the three servers were like that I made chars on and during peak time no more than 35 people in the fleet and only 1 person on Tatooine which was funny, especially as that was me.

    They need to make it F2P.

  • ZorgoZorgo Deepintheheartof, TXPosts: 2,226Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Originally posted by rguilbert

    Originally posted by Fed1

     

    I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

    Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

    Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

     

     

    If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

     

    So, based on your theory about casual users:

    If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

    Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

    We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

    Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

     

    The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

     

    Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

    I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

    It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

    Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

    I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

     

     

     

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by Zorgo

    Originally posted by Metentso


    Originally posted by rguilbert


    Originally posted by Fed1

     

    I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

    Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

    Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

     

     

    If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December.  Now there are 16-17000.

     

    So, based on your theory about casual users:

    If Xfire hours played per day  for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

    Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

    We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

    Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire.  Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

     

    The point people are making is the relative decline.  Not how many subscriptions are active.  There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

     

    Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

    I'll throw another cog in this wheel.

    It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'? 

    Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.

    I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.

    This again...  we are talking players, not hours.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,065Member Uncommon

    Fed1: your point about total hours played not being reliable is valid in and of itself however. Something that was highlighted around the end of December. Hence - as Metentso says - this thread is primarily tracking the total number of players.

    Several of the points you raise also touch on the avergae hours played. Just  to reiterate this thread is mainly looking at people playing however average hours were and still are I suspect bei ng tracked as well. And in this respect the data showed: 

    - big splurge early on, as EA and you say - check

    - then average hours in line with what EA said - check

    - and then broadly in line with other mmo games, after all people will broadly have the same amount of hours to play - check. (The number had fallen but is still around 4.)

    Not proof that what we are seeing from XFire is a perfect indicator but again supporting that what it is showing is to good to simply dismiss.

     

  • superniceguysuperniceguy AnchorheadPosts: 2,278Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by superniceguy

    I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird image

    They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

     

    No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.

    It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0! image

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by superniceguy


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by superniceguy

    I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird image
    They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?

     

    No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.

    It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0! image

     

    It will be interesting to match up what we are seeing here when EA publish their financials, amazing to believe some people think they have 1.7m subscribed players. Massively now report the amount of people you can invite to he friends trial is up to 25 from 3, soon they will have a permanent free trial I guess.
This discussion has been closed.