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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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I only have 73 pages. I suggest you increase the number of posts per page.
You guys undertand that you can play less and still have a sub right?
I mean everyone I know is waiting for 1.2 to start again. I wonder if Xfire will reflect that fact that fleet numbers will increase greatly once 1.2 comes out?
And almost everyone I know that left will not be returning for 1.2, I think that BioWare will definitely get some returning for 1.2 but I also think that they will be bitterly disappointed by how many that turns out to be.
So basically what you are saying is that this game is STILL second among MMOs and STILL has about twice the number of players (on XFire) than the MMO in third place. Not bad for a game that is now going on 4 months old. Concidering that most MMOs tend to stabilize at around the six month mark, and often grow some after that as content is added and the game smoothes out the wrinkles, I don't see any problem when following your scenario.
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
Wonder how many will come back for the 'can opener man armor set' or so they can have a force choking, lighting throwing jumping bounty hunter?
1.2 does have some good things although everyone should of been standard at launch. I love seeing 1.2 being hyped when it's all standard features. What I don't see in 1.2 is addressing the core defect which is social aspects that might actually get everyone to call it a MMO. Whatever 1.2 does bring there is still no long term hook to keep the game from bleeding subs IMO.
Second amongst subscription based games on the XFire chart - so ignoring LoL etc.
Key points: SWTOR was expensive to make and EA have said that they would not have made the investment if they didn't believe they could get/,aintain 1M subs - a number which will include recouping EA's investment. On an on-going basis - if they write off the investment - they can break even / make a profit on 500k (break even point put at c. 350k by some analysts).
One reason the numbers of subs needed is high will be because of the royalty payment to LucasArts - put at 35% by some analysts. So 300k subs in SWTOR would be equal - in profit terms - to 200k in WoW.
The game is some way off 4 months old and at that point people who opted for a 3 month sub will decide whether to renew or not; could be ugly.
Content in SWTOR will only be added slowly - the voice over stuff takes time; quarterly content drops are planned but many seem less than impressed by the new content in 1.2. That is speculation however.
Any evidence that games grow after the 6 month mark? I can think of a lot that don't appear to have done so - we don't get many official figures of course. And at a time of growing F2P, faster consumption of content, the growth of browser games etc. , lots of new games coming out - both mmo and others e.g. Star Wars Kinnect. Tough markey out there.
Well in 3 months it has lost 70% of the xFire players, so...
1.2 will probably stop the decline, otherwise it would be fighting with Aion for the 2nd MMO place in may.
About having twice the number of players of Aion, which sounds big, it depends on the magnitude of the numbers. If one game has 1 player, and another game has 2 players, it has twice. In this case it's 2.000 and 4.000. Actually, 1.879 and 3.587 today, a difference of 1.700 players. SWTOR has lost 8.000 in 3 months and it's losing around 200-300 every week now.
Also consider that SWTOR had the biggest budge in history, and was going to change MMOs forever. If xFire numbers has any relation with total number of subscriptions (i said "if"), it's not looking pretty.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Comparing any 'new' game to an 'old' one also ignores the fact that - in most cases - new games lose subs faster than old games. Like used car values; a new car may lose 40 % of its value once it is out of the show room but only another 10% or so in the following year.
I only have 73 pages. I suggest you increase the number of posts per page.
I only have 49, page numbers are not a reliable source of a threads popularity.I can not seem to access the Xfire website atm, been like this for about 24 hours. I can log into my account OK, and see my sig which links to the Xfire website, but can not access the website, including the link in the OP - Just says it is unavailable or does not exist - Weird
They did have a new Beta website, and if you did not like it, could go back to the old one - maybe the old one no longer exists, and they are just using the new site now?
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.Funny how they haven't announced subscription numbers and all the servers never go past standard or light anymore. I resubbed to see what the three servers were like that I made chars on and during peak time no more than 35 people in the fleet and only 1 person on Tatooine which was funny, especially as that was me.
They need to make it F2P.
I'll throw another cog in this wheel.
It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'?
Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.
I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.
This again... we are talking players, not hours.
An honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Fed1: your point about total hours played not being reliable is valid in and of itself however. Something that was highlighted around the end of December. Hence - as Metentso says - this thread is primarily tracking the total number of players.
Several of the points you raise also touch on the avergae hours played. Just to reiterate this thread is mainly looking at people playing however average hours were and still are I suspect bei ng tracked as well. And in this respect the data showed:
- big splurge early on, as EA and you say - check
- then average hours in line with what EA said - check
- and then broadly in line with other mmo games, after all people will broadly have the same amount of hours to play - check. (The number had fallen but is still around 4.)
Not proof that what we are seeing from XFire is a perfect indicator but again supporting that what it is showing is to good to simply dismiss.
It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0!
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
No account but have beta version web page opens ok, 3587 is the figure for April 2nd.It is all OK now. 3389 today for 3rd April! Soon will be below 3000, then 2000, then 1000, then 0!
It will be interesting to match up what we are seeing here when EA publish their financials, amazing to believe some people think they have 1.7m subscribed players. Massively now report the amount of people you can invite to he friends trial is up to 25 from 3, soon they will have a permanent free trial I guess.Point taken...but as food for thought, if players are maxed and there isn't enough content to warrant playing every day, wouldn't the player numbers drop too?
I started playing every day on release. Now I log in 2 or 3 times a week because I have a max lvl toon. I'm still subscribing, I still think it is a good game, but it is new and doesn't have years of added content, I'm not mad, just ahead of the development curve.
The above scenario is common, and you know it's true if you think about it. This too, would account for fewer people per day.
But I know it must be frustrating when you want to ignore pertinent variables and people keep bringing them up over and over.
If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December. Now there are 16-17000.
So, based on your theory about casual users:
If Xfire hours played per day for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...
Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.
We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.
Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire. Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.
The point people are making is the relative decline. Not how many subscriptions are active. There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).
Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.I'll throw another cog in this wheel.
It took folks many hours to level up. Once max, there isn't enough content to justify the same hours of play (especially as a new mmo without years of added content). Imagine Game A with 100, 000 content and happy players playing 1 hour per day = 100,000 hours. Game B has 25,000 content and happy players, and they are playing 5 hours per day - 250,000 total hours. Which game would be a 'fail'?
Therefore, in theory, we could have an equal number of players on xfire/swtor playing much fewer hours, as they are maxed.
I don't think of course this is the only answer, but just one of the many variables one has to consider. I do think many people tried SWToR and for a variety of reasons, didn't stick with it. But I also think that those who are sticking with it, are maxed and don't have nearly as much to do in game as they did leveling, thus playing less hours.
This again... we are talking players, not hours.
Point taken...but as food for thought, if players are maxed and there isn't enough content to warrant playing every day, wouldn't the player numbers drop too?
I started playing every day on release. Now I log in 2 or 3 times a week because I have a max lvl toon. I'm still subscribing, I still think it is a good game, but it is new and doesn't have years of added content, I'm not mad, just ahead of the development curve.
The above scenario is common, and you know it's true if you think about it. This too, would account for fewer people per day.
But I know it must be frustrating when you want to not have to think about pertinent variables and people keep bringing them up over and over.
Some of the drop will be people like that, but the less people play the more likely they are to stop completely and unsub.What is really frustrating is trying to treat someone with respect and they continue to attack people; be civil rather then throwing in the snide "I know it must be frustrating drivel".
What you have actually stated is that you are a pretty average user. Why?
In the beginning the average hours played was very high, typically close to 9 hours, it even peaked higher. This was people like you logging in everyday because SWTOR was new and shiny and then there was the holiday season.
Now the average hours played is 4. Less than half - so this represents people logging in about 3 times a week, Hence you are pretty average and confirm the data.
For your scenario to be true:
option 1: the number of people playing would have to remain very high - it peaked at just below 12,000 - and these 12k would have to log in less than 1 day a week. Not what you are doing and not what the data suggets.
option 2: there are the 3-4k players logging in and 8k or so players who are playing an average of 0 days a week just waiting for the next patch. Hmmm, this is a 3 month old game. If they are not logging then I would suggest that most of them have a) left b) will leave when their 3 month sub runs out.
Both of these scenarios are, I think you will agree, pretty bleak.
We are not, however, trying to be this exact however. We know that there will be a margin of error etc. Things could be better ... or worse!
First, my snarky comment was a reaction to his snarky comment, the 'this again....' is laden with inuindo and you know it - you can almost see his eyes rolling and using a droning tone while saying it. He was trying to zing me, so please be aware of the two-way street.
Second, I don't think either of us have been personally offended by each other. I admit to smart-ass comments, but it is all in good fun; I haven't personally attacked anyone for their opinion, and I don't feel personally attacked.
Third, take a spoonful of your own medicine - you jumped to a conclusion about me and felt compelled to point the gun at me; so if it's good for you goose....what about us in the gander?
And finally,
You need to clearly understand what my argument is vs. what this thread is trying to insinuate
The theme of this thread is:
1. SWToR is bleeding subs because it is a bad game.
2. Xfire proves it is losing subs.
My argument is:
1. SWToR is losing subs.
2. SWToR's sub loss percentage has been the 'norm' since after WoW; therefore, loss of subs does not indicate a bad game but rather normal market trends.
3. There are other variables to consider
a. rather than basing theory on one set of statistics one should use critical analysis of other games' current sub patterns. I.E. are we seeing similar percentage shifts with other mmo's?
b. theories should also look at this graph in context to other games first months of release - this would certainly show that the SWToR trend is normal and not an aboration.
b. holidays, other game releases, running out of content for daily play, more players using less hours, less players using more hours - these should all be considered before arriving at a conclusion.
4. There are so many variables to consider when making a critical analysis of what statistics mean that I believe it warrents a smart ass remark when people say some version of 'you're beating a dead horse' when you mention variables we don't want to consider in our analysis"
I just find it difficult to swallow that SWToR is a failure. It arguably had one of the smoothest launches. It arguably had a high level of polish relative to the industry. It factually released with a higher number than any mmo ever relased. It is factually still second only to WoW in subs. These are accomplishments which any person in the industry would be proud of. But it seems that people want to say that its retention rate is the sure-fire, one and only variable to indicate 'fail' or 'not fail', which is odd when by all indications the retention rate for this game is the 'norm' for the vast majority of mmos. It just seems short-sighted.
I am not claiming that SWToR didn't piss off a lot of people who quit and think it is an awful game. But it is the same percentage that did the same with Rift, DCUO, STO, etc. etc. etc.
All I am saying is that you are looking at normal market fluctuations and patterns and are crying, 'the sky is falling'.
I'm happy to eat crow if I'm wrong, but my guess is that SWToR will be a top mmo for years to come. Are any of you detractors willing to say you f'd up your analysis if 3 years down the road SWToR is still one of the top populated mmos? I kinda doubt it.
And what is amazing, is that I may be the only one in this thread with an opposing opinion who isn't arguing against Xfire as being a useful tool. Most people are, and rightly so, questioning the validity of xfire as an indicator of anything. All I am saying is that it has to be critically analyzed against multiple variables to make it a 'useful' tool for analysis.
The bigger they are the harder they fall!
The difference with SWTOR and other MMOs, is that it sold 2 million copies at launch, which no other MMO has done. If the game was good it would not have dropped so much and so quick. SWTOR is only good for a couple of months, other MMOs keep you playing and subbing for a lot longer.
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012
Read my edited post....I hit enter by mistake ).
But to egg on conversation:
Is Rift a bad game? It had a similar percentage drop in population.
Is DCUO a bad game? It had a similar percentage drop in population.
Is LoTRO a bad game? It had a similar percentage drop in population.
Is DDO? It had a similar drop in population.
Is Aion a bad game? It had a similar percentage drop in population - and it's #3.
Or how about EQ? AC? DAoC? What is their population now? I dare you to say that EQ is a fail game because it has fewer subs than it did in 2001.
All of the games in your sig, which you say are > than SWToR had the exact same trend happen to them.
Or here is some real food for thought. We know how many people are playing WoW - 10 to 12 million right? Well, do you know how many people have tried it and not subbed? What if it is 30 million who tried it and only 10 million remain, would you then say that it shows that WoW is a 'fail'?
Lots and lots to consider before arriving at conclusions about a video game market which has hundreds and hundreds of games and millions and millions of players.
We keep saying that the graph shows how bad the games are. I am starting to think what the graph is telling developers is that f2p is the wave of the future and subs have had their heyday. Because, what happened to DDO, LoTRO, DCUO, etc. after f2p.....all of a sudden they are gaining subs and not bleeding them. Turns out it wasn't the game at all. It was the price structure.
SWTOR is certainly dropping faster than other MMOs, because it simply does not keep people playing for a long time. Other MMOs may have had similar drops, but after longer periods, except perhaps DCUO. LOTRO has constantly been getting awards since its release, and none of the servers seem lacking in population, as much as SWTOR is. As far as I could tell LOTRO went F2P to fall in line with DDO after WB bought it out, as opposed to it bleeding subs. LOTRO F2P worked well and other companies followed.
In SWG, even Valcyn in Oct 2009, just before it got shut down, has been more active than SWTOR this week!
SWTOR is a fail as P2P MMO, but could be a success as a single player game.
Star Trek Online - Best Free MMORPG of 2012