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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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It could be, most of us are trying not to make too many conclusions, more just watching the data and trying to predict and analyse events, although personally I can't see how big a draw 1.2 will be to those who have left, good for those still playing with the legacy stuf maybe, but there doesn't appear much to draw people back in.That's part of the problem in my eyes. 8-9 years ago i don't recall ever just waiting on a patch to continue playing. I was on every day doing something and i'm not talking about some silly daily quests. I miss when everyone else was on every day as well. I'm disgusted by the whole log in to raid then log off shit that's going on today. It's no wonder there are no communities any longer. No community, no reason to log on.
Generally people who understand statistics and who have only had an introductory course in the subject, realize the importance RANDOM samples. And in case anyone is unsure. XFIRE is not a random sample of SWTOR players.
You do understand the concept of statistics? 2% is a very good sample base for a large population, to put it into context political polls have in the uk for a poll taking 2000 out of 40,000,000 voters (not exact figUres) 0.005%Generally people who understand statistics and who have only had an introductory course in the subject, realize the importance RANDOM samples. And in case anyone is unsure. XFIRE is not a random sample of SWTOR players.
No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.Now up to 144 pages of people arguing over whether X-Fire data is representative of overall player trends or not. Impressive.
This thread is on a loop.
Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.
To be honest most of us regulars here are using it as an experiment ourselves looking for predicted patterns and to see if they show up in the data, I am looking forward to EA telling their investors the numbers in a few weeks. Generally every couple of pages someone pipes up that XFire is totally meaningless because neither they nor their 16 guild mates use it and it sets off a flurry of posts explaining that XFire does have some statistical meaning, it is the amount that is debateable, and that we cannot use it to predict absolute population numbers but rather in population increasing or decreasing trends.Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.
That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quotedNot seeing the connection, What does one nonrandom set of data (his poll) have to do with another nonrandom set of data (XFIRE)?
Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.
That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quotedNot seeing the connection, What does one nonrandom set of data (his poll) have to do with another nonrandom set of data (XFIRE)?
It was a throw away amusing remark as indicated by the smiley face at the end of the sentance.Or it was simply to point out that not everyone uses Xfire, less than 2% of my guild does, not speaking for everyone but in our metrics we're playing and as you can see most of us don't bother with Xfire, tosses your metrics off.
There have been a couple of polls here on who uses xfire and its always been a small number (less than 20%)......You cant go by it to determine how well/poorly a game is doing.
To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments:
We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.
People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.
For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.
What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.
Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.
So are people leaving Swtor or are people leaving x-fire?
SWTOR vs. WoW time played of XFire
100% = WoW's time played, yellow bar = SWTOR's time played. All my data is taken from Saturdays
I don't know about that OP. You might want to check the official forums and see the many threads of people complaining about server merges are needed. Apparently people are having difficulty finding players online to do missions.
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Doesn't mean anyone is leaving, only shows there is a reduced amount of hours played which can be interperated as a loss of subs however it doesn't 100% mean that. Some might just be playing less of said game.
Doesn't mean anyone is leaving, only shows there is a reduced amount of hours played which can be interperated as a loss of subs however it doesn't 100% mean that. Some might just be playing less of said game.
Metentso's graph is of daily users not hours played, some might have reduced their gameplay to a point where they are playing on less and less days, but it could also be argued that that behaviour is more likely to lead to leaving the game too, either way it is not a good metric for a 3 month old game.Again for anyone who has had an introductory course in stats. In your opinion does not make it so. Try to get a paper published with without a true random sample and see what happens.
Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.
To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments:
We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.
People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.
For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.
What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.
Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.
Again for anyone who has had an introductory course in stats. In your opinion does not make it so. Try to get a paper published with without a true random sample and see what happens.
Why are XFire users who play SWTOR markedly different from other XFire users?For one, XFIRE main use was at one point for FPS fans to get together with friends. One would assume there is a disportionately large amount of FPS fans.To be sure I would have to draw a random sample :-) I am sure there are others
Fed1:
Someone persisted in arguing that it was not random. Whether it is > feel free to take your pick doesn't matter however because you end up discussing that the unknown bias and margin of error in a random sample will be different from if it is >.
As we do not know what the bias and error is so what? So it doesn't matter whether my opinion is valid or not.
You continue to try and insult people and in doing so continue to demonstrate that you don't know what you are on about. Random samples are not the be all and end all - medical research is just one obvious area.
I have 101 in statistics and a lot more besides - but, like I say, in this case it doesn't matter whether it is random or not. The fact remains that XFire continues to perform "as one would expect". Join the discussion; stop acting like a fool.
The FPS issue has been covered by the way; time moves on and you only have to look at the current mix of games that XFire tracks.
One of the good questions and way to hard for this thread
What we have is not actually 'a sample' but a series of time based observations on a shifting population. Given the unknowns it is why I suggest we stick with a "non-quantative" approach - keep applying the common sense check! And doing so continues to support that whilst we may not know how good the data is it is to good to simply dismiss.
It will be very interesting to see what EA say when they announce their results; somehow I doubt we will get a SWTOR has X subscribers however.
OMG, 146 pages of beating a dead horse. Even for nerd forums it's a bit too much.
You may like XFire or hate it but you can't deny that SWTOR peaked *there* in the late December of the last year. It's been three months since then. And about XFire being a reliable source... come on, people, it's is far from the only indicator of SWTOR popularity decline. Just look at torstatus.net. Peace.
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).