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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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Comments

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,082Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Fed1

     

    I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

    Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

    Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

     

     

    Fed1: on what basis are you making your claims - about hardcore and non-hardcore players etc. First there is a relationship - that's what statistics is about; what we don't know is how good the relationship is. Saying SWTOR is a single player game and so folks hon't need something like XFire or Vent would potentially be more damming! What would that say about the long term future of SWTOR as an mmo however>

    Some valid points have been made about your example - and it is worth questoning the data.

    The fact remains however that the high average hours played in the first week or two matched EA's happy talk about how many hours SWTOR had notched up. Then EA gave an average number of hours per player and .... roll of the drums ... that matched up as well.

    Now years down the line when you have an unknown number of sleeper accounts who hardly play it will be much harder - but SWTOR is only 3 months old.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    I noticed yesterday was down nearly 10% to 3911 on the prior Sunday, possible a lack of weekend trial affected this, seems like a fair drop in 1 week.
  • GMan3GMan3 Ewa Beach, HIPosts: 2,127Member

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

    "If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  • RoshaRosha Fredericton, NBPosts: 29Member Uncommon

    So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.

    So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by GMan3

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

     

    not sure about in MMO category only but in all games highest was 4th, currently 7th

     

     

    XFIRE Game Rank : 7

     

    No change for 0 days

     

    Highest Rank: 4 on 2012-01-17

     

    Publisher : Electronic Arts

     

    Release Date : 2011-12-20

     

    Genre : Role-Playing

     

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by GMan3

        Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire?  Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

    Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

    In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

     

     




















    DAY

    DATE

    # PLAYERS

    % PREV WEEK 

    % FROM MAX

    NOTES











































































































































































































































    Monday

    05/03/12

    4582

    -19,42%

    -61,17%

     

    Tuesday

    06/03/12

    4371

    -9,37%

    -62,96%

     

    Wednesday

    07/03/12

    4398

    -6,62%

    -62,73%

     

    Thursday

    08/03/12

    4272

    -4,92%

    -63,80%

     

    Friday

    09/03/12

    4216

    -8,03%

    -64,27%

     

    Saturday

    10/03/12

    4487

    -5,68%

    -61,97%

     

    Sunday

    11/03/12

    4652

    -8,26%

    -60,58%

     

    Monday

    12/03/12

    4384

    -4,32%

    -62,85%

     

    Tuesday

    13/03/12

    4170

    -4,60%

    -64,66%

     

    Wednesday

    14/03/12

    4299

    -2,25%

    -63,57%

    free 7 day trial

    Thursday

    15/03/12

    4444

    4,03%

    -62,34%

    free week end

    Friday

    16/03/12

    4667

    10,70%

    -60,45%

     

    Saturday

    17/03/12

    4981

    11,01%

    -57,79%

     

    Sunday

    18/03/12

    5186

    11,48%

    -56,05%

     

    Monday

    19/03/12

    4237

    -3,35%

    -64,09%

     

    Tuesday

    20/03/12

    4025

    -3,48%

    -65,89%

     

    Wednesday

    21/03/12

    3950

    -8,12%

    -66,53%

     

    Thursday

    22/03/12

    4029

    -9,34%

    -65,86%

     

    Friday

    23/03/12

    3908

    -16,26%

    -66,88%

     

    Saturday

    24/03/12

    4238

    -14,92%

    -64,08%

     

    Sunday

    25/03/12

    4323

    -16,64%

    -63,36%

     

    Monday

    26/03/12

    3774

    -10,93%

    -68,02%

     

    Tuesday

    27/03/12

    3718

    -7,63%

    -68,49%

     

    Wednesday

    28/03/12

    3657

    -7,42%

    -69,01%

     

    Thursday

    29/03/12

    3638

    -9,70%

    -69,17%

     

    Friday

    30/03/12

    3508

    -10,24%

    -70,27%

    all-time low

    Saturday

    31/03/12

    3718

    -12,27%

    -68,49%

     

    Sunday

    01/04/12

    3911

    -9,53%

    -66,86%

     

     

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Rosha

    So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.
    So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

     

    You do understand the concept of statistics? 2% is a very good sample base for a large population, to put it into context political polls have in the uk for a poll taking 2000 out of 40,000,000 voters (not exact figUres) 0.005%
  • itgrowlsitgrowls newport news, VAPosts: 2,951Member

    I'm no fan, but i do have to point out that it could just be like Rift is right now, people waiting for a particular patch. Right now Rift players en masse are waiting for 1.8 it could be that SWTOR players are waiting for 1.2 (especially since it has everything that was missing).

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by itgrowls

    I'm no fan, but i do have to point out that it could just be like Rift is right now, people waiting for a particular patch. Right now Rift players en masse are waiting for 1.8 it could be that SWTOR players are waiting for 1.2 (especially since it has everything that was missing).

     

    It could be, most of us are trying not to make too many conclusions, more just watching the data and trying to predict and analyse events, although personally I can't see how big a draw 1.2 will be to those who have left, good for those still playing with the legacy stuf maybe, but there doesn't appear much to draw people back in.
  • AldersAlders Jack Burton'sPosts: 1,857Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by itgrowls

    I'm no fan, but i do have to point out that it could just be like Rift is right now, people waiting for a particular patch. Right now Rift players en masse are waiting for 1.8 it could be that SWTOR players are waiting for 1.2 (especially since it has everything that was missing).

     

    That's part of the problem in my eyes.  8-9 years ago i don't recall ever just waiting on a patch to continue playing.  I was on every day doing something and i'm not talking about some silly daily quests.  I miss when everyone else was on every day as well.  I'm disgusted by the whole log in to raid then log off shit that's going on today.  It's no wonder there are no communities any longer.  No community, no reason to log on.

  • Fed1Fed1 Roaburg, VAPosts: 167Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by Rosha

    So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.

    So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

     

    You do understand the concept of statistics? 2% is a very good sample base for a large population, to put it into context political polls have in the uk for a poll taking 2000 out of 40,000,000 voters (not exact figUres) 0.005%

    Generally people who understand statistics and who have only had an introductory course in the subject, realize the importance RANDOM samples. And in case anyone is unsure. XFIRE is not a random sample of SWTOR players.

     

     

     

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by Rosha

    So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.
    So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

     

    You do understand the concept of statistics? 2% is a very good sample base for a large population, to put it into context political polls have in the uk for a poll taking 2000 out of 40,000,000 voters (not exact figUres) 0.005%

    Generally people who understand statistics and who have only had an introductory course in the subject, realize the importance RANDOM samples. And in case anyone is unsure. XFIRE is not a random sample of SWTOR players.

     

     

     

     

    No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.
  • sirphobossirphobos Ames, IAPosts: 614Member Common

    Now up to 144 pages of people arguing over whether X-Fire data is representative of overall player trends or not.  Impressive.

  • AnkurAnkur MarrakeshPosts: 334Member

    Originally posted by sirphobos

    Now up to 144 pages of people arguing over whether X-Fire data is representative of overall player trends or not.  Impressive.

    This thread is on a loop.

  • Fed1Fed1 Roaburg, VAPosts: 167Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by sirphobos

    Now up to 144 pages of people arguing over whether X-Fire data is representative of overall player trends or not.  Impressive.

     

    To be honest most of us regulars here are using it as an experiment ourselves looking for predicted patterns and to see if they show up in the data, I am looking forward to EA telling their investors the numbers in a few weeks. Generally every couple of pages someone pipes up that XFire is totally meaningless because neither they nor their 16 guild mates use it and it sets off a flurry of posts explaining that XFire does have some statistical meaning, it is the amount that is debateable, and that we cannot use it to predict absolute population numbers but rather in population increasing or decreasing trends.
  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor


     
     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

     

    That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quoted :)
  • Fed1Fed1 Roaburg, VAPosts: 167Member

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by Fed1

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

     

    That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quoted :)

    Not seeing the connection, What does one nonrandom set of data (his poll) have to do with another nonrandom set of data (XFIRE)? 

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor



     
     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

     

    That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quoted :)

    Not seeing the connection, What does one nonrandom set of data (his poll) have to do with another nonrandom set of data (XFIRE)? 

     

    It was a throw away amusing remark as indicated by the smiley face at the end of the sentance.
  • RoshaRosha Fredericton, NBPosts: 29Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by Fed1

    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by Fed1


    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

     

    That is true, but he must have one bigg ass guild if 4 people is equal to the 0.005% I quoted :)

    Not seeing the connection, What does one nonrandom set of data (his poll) have to do with another nonrandom set of data (XFIRE)? 

     

    It was a throw away amusing remark as indicated by the smiley face at the end of the sentance.

     

    Or it was simply to point out that not everyone uses Xfire, less than 2% of my guild does, not speaking for everyone but in our metrics we're playing and as you can see most of us don't bother with Xfire, tosses your metrics off.

  • TheocritusTheocritus Gary, INPosts: 3,758Member Uncommon

         There have been a couple of polls here on who uses xfire and its always been a small number (less than 20%)......You cant go by it to determine how well/poorly a game is doing.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 .Posts: 2,082Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Fed1

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

     No one is claiming it is a completely random sample, however if you had read Rosha's post you would have seen that his argument was that only 4 out of 200 of his guild used XFire, my reply pointed out that 2% was a very healthy proportion for a sample of a large population.

    Agree 2% is a large sample for large populations. However, his poll was not a random sample either. IE people using XFIRE in his guild are more likely to respond.

    To help you understand statistics Fed1 I will repost a summary of some of my previous comments: 

    We are not looking at XFire users; the sample is XFire users who play SWTOR.

    People choose to play XFire so this can be called a self-selected sample. Within that population however the XFire users who play SWTOR are, imo, random. It wouldn't actually matter however because we end up discussing bias and margin of error. We have a sample and from it we could - if we wanted to - draw inferences.

    For an analogy think of a medical sample. People with a known condition volunteer for a trial. Some get the new treatment, some get a placebo. The fact that the sample as a whole 'self-selected' to be part of the trial does not invalidate the results. By your argument all this medical research is invalid.

    What we have is actually more complicated but I am keeping it simple for you.

    Please challenge the data however; provide input into why what we are seeing may be way off the mark.  

  • Shakes420Shakes420 Marietta, GAPosts: 23Member

    So are people leaving Swtor or are people leaving x-fire?

  • VrikaVrika FinlandPosts: 2,591Member Uncommon

    SWTOR vs. WoW time played of XFire

    100% = WoW's time played, yellow bar = SWTOR's time played. All my data is taken from Saturdays

  • MephsterMephster Tyria, NJPosts: 1,188Member

    I don't know about that OP. You might want to check the official forums and see the many threads of people complaining about server merges are needed. Apparently people are having difficulty finding players online to do missions.

    Grim Dawn, the next great action rpg!

    http://www.grimdawn.com/

This discussion has been closed.