Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

Metentso · March 2012

Originally posted by gervaise1
They said ' vast majority' were through there 30 day period - and suggested that they were subscribers in March; however this 1.7 was not the same as the Feb' 1.7 when JR said majority and clarified in his March address that this was 'about 50%'. The reason that the March 1.7 was not the same as the Feb 1.7 is that as this was more than 30 days later 100% of the Feb 1.7 would have been through there 30 days!

Either way we agree it isn't 1.7M and it all comes down to what is now meant by vast majority ..... they could very easily have come out and said SWTOR is doing great and we have X subs!

Hmmm i had the idea it was the same piece of news that was repeated.

Anyway yes it's very vague and we can presume it has been going down. This is as much as xFire can tell IMO (if general pop goes up or down or stable).

RefMinor · March 2012

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by gervaise1

They said ' vast majority' were through there 30 day period - and suggested that they were subscribers in March; however this 1.7 was not the same as the Feb' 1.7 when JR said majority and clarified in his March address that this was 'about 50%'. The reason that the March 1.7 was not the same as the Feb 1.7 is that as this was more than 30 days later 100% of the Feb 1.7 would have been through there 30 days!
Either way we agree it isn't 1.7M and it all comes down to what is now meant by vast majority ..... they could very easily have come out and said SWTOR is doing great and we have X subs!

Hmmm i had the idea it was the same piece of news that was repeated.

Anyway yes it's very vague and we can presume it has been going down. This is as much as xFire can tell IMO (if general pop goes up or down or stable).

I basically read it as of the 1.7m subs at Dec 31st the vast majority went on past the 30 days, therefore 1.2m to 1.69m of the original subscribers purchased enough playtime to get them to at least ~20th Feb. Since 31st Dec they have added subs and lost a bunch at ~20th Feb and ~20th March.

Metentso · March 2012

Originally posted by RefMinor

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by gervaise1

They said ' vast majority' were through there 30 day period - and suggested that they were subscribers in March; however this 1.7 was not the same as the Feb' 1.7 when JR said majority and clarified in his March address that this was 'about 50%'. The reason that the March 1.7 was not the same as the Feb 1.7 is that as this was more than 30 days later 100% of the Feb 1.7 would have been through there 30 days!

Either way we agree it isn't 1.7M and it all comes down to what is now meant by vast majority ..... they could very easily have come out and said SWTOR is doing great and we have X subs!

Hmmm i had the idea it was the same piece of news that was repeated.

Anyway yes it's very vague and we can presume it has been going down. This is as much as xFire can tell IMO (if general pop goes up or down or stable).

I basically read it as of the 1.7m subs at Dec 31st the vast majority went on past the 30 days, therefore 1.2m to 1.69m of the original subscribers purchased enough playtime to get them to at least ~20th Feb. Since 31st Dec they have added subs and lost a bunch at ~20th Feb and ~20th March.

Yes that makes sense Ref.

Ok another try to paste the graph:

Not working.. i will leave just last week numbers for now:

DAY

DATE

# PLAYERS

% PREV WEEK

% FROM MAX

NOTES

Thursday	22/03/12	4029	-9,34%	-65,86%
Friday	23/03/12	3908	-16,26%	-66,88%
Saturday	24/03/12	4238	-14,92%	-64,08%
Sunday	25/03/12	4323	-16,64%	-63,36%
Monday	26/03/12	3774	-10,93%	-68,02%
Tuesday	27/03/12	3718	-7,63%	-68,49%
Wednesday	28/03/12	3657	-7,42%	-69,01%
Thursday	29/03/12	3638	-9,70%	-69,17%

Loke666 · March 2012

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

Yeah, assuming that all players have X-fire installed.

You can´t count like that. even if all players had xfire it could still just mean that people just play every third day. It is not a good sign of course and the game surely have lost some players but judging exactly how many based on xfire is impossible.

Xfire is also a lot more popular in some regions than others, here in Sweden don't I know a single person using it, we use vent instead (or Scype for really small groups) while it is very popular in the US. So for an instance if the game lost more US players than European (assuming E'the rest of EU do like Swedeb which also wont hold up in court) you would get a number far from reality.

superniceguy · March 2012

Originally posted by Sukiyaki

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Sukiyaki

Originally posted by superniceguy

Originally posted by Chieftan

Originally posted by FrodoFragins

How the hell do you come up with those numbers based on an XFire chart?

That's just idiotic.

Just a bit. [mod edit] xfire hours can be extrapolated to figure out how many subs a MMO has. The problem is they have no formula to go by. They're just pulling numbers out of their ass.

xfire shows Aion has over 4 times as much traffic as Rift. Based off that you'd think Aion was doing pretty good and Rift is circling the drain. In reality Aion is about to go completely free to play while Rift still charges a sub.

Aion and Rift are in the right positions as far as Xfire stats go

Aion is F2P, at least in EU, and only recent, that is why it is doing better than Rift.

League of legends would not be number #1 if it was P2P, nor would Minecraft be as high as it is if it was P2P. They would probably be lower than Rift, if were P2P.

According to xfire Aion (in the 1,3k-1k/after F2P in the 2k range) was played about twice as much by xfire player than Rift (in the 700-500 range) for almost half a year, long before Aion went F2P in the EU.

F2P only raised that gap.

Try explaining again.

Japanese players. Aion is more popular in Japan, Rift has not been launched in Japan. Aion just has a wider audience. It still looks P2P over there, and they are not too happy that Aion went F2P in Europe (and now NA).

However, South Korean players seemed to be a quite surprised that the NO. 1 MMO in South Korea will go f2p in Europe. They argued that excellent games should adopt the p2p model instead of f2p model. Some players even claimed that European players are "stingy" or "don't know how to appreciate such a masterpiece". And some others indicated that European players discriminate Aion because as you know NA version of Aion is still p2p.

http://news.mmosite.com/content/c/2011-12-19/aion_going_f2p_in_europe_makes_kr_player_restless.shtml

Dont make me laugh throwing random google results around yourself. You clearly have no clue about neither Aion, neither xfire, nor what you are talking about and just dont want to admit Rift was/is dead compared to Aion in the West for whatever reason, even when Aion was fully P2P. Xfire is not even relevant in this matter, even when it clearly supports this fact, despite its inaccuarcies some apologists still want to feign ignoranee over for the sake of their illinformed specualtion and beliefs. Rift only made 100 Million in revenues in its first year. Thats a joke for a game with early "1 Million subs" and at least as much boxsales.

But you want to tell me Aion was twice as popular as Rift on xfire before EU went F2P because of Japanese player? Seriously? Xfire has hardly any Asian user in first place, leave alone Japanese, now Aion all on its own is supposed to have literaly thousands of Japanese xfire user? Not only that, but most of Aions daily numbers on xfire would be from Japan either?

Get real! Rift could release in Japan and its xfire stats might likely not even go up a single digit even if it where moderately successful. Mabye two or three if they got lucky.

I could atleast follow the illinformed assumptions and claims if you blamed it on Koreans. There exist easily eigth to ten times more Korean Aion player than Japanese and its pretty well know for its popularity in Korea. It has more than ten times the numbers of server in Korea. But Japan? It makes no sense whatsoever to even bring them up, even if they where moderately using xfire. Japan is a highly profitable market, but tiny in terms of playnumbers, they are almost insignificant on the global market with about less than 2% share. Now you want to explain that huge gap away by those almost insignificant small number of player with potential access to Aion but not Rift?

Some education for you: There is just one title dominating the Japanese "MMO market" that is the FFXI and FFXIV combo. On xfire these games struggle to gain few dozen of player (because pretty much no one in Japan uses xfire), but Aion is supposed to have thousand Japanese player using xfire? Which would equate to almost the whole Japanese market potential?

Bad news for you: Aion was still P2P in the U.S. when it had four times the numbers of Rift on xifre. Its still P2P in the U.S either. The gap will only widen and will likely pan out at four to five times the number of Rift in a few months after the peak, unless Rift goes F2P or shuts down before.

I know what I am talking about. I have no clue what you are talking about though.

Ambros123 · March 2012

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

Not to mention Tera, TSW and possibly Game of Thrones and DDO's xpac (doubful of the latter two but never know).

As far as the arguement of the validity of X-Fire, while it can't perdict exact numbers it does however show the trend of decreasing activity which is safe to assume that it applies to the population. X-Fire is a legitimate sample like it or not, all what a sample is is a selection from the population which it is like it or not.

cutthecrap · March 2012

I think that everyone in their right mind knows how limited the value of things like xfire, raptr or steam numbers. However, it isn't completely useless: in the weekend, you can see a peak which makes sense, and when there is long maintenance of an MMO, you see also a dip. But that's as far as it goes, I think.

I don't know why Korean players would be shocked about Aion going F2P in Europe since Aion has never been sub based P2P in Korea in the first place, but I've learnt to distrust mmosite in any case when it comes to news reporting. Too many vague, iffy news items and too much reminding of tabloid reporting.

But it's easy to compare revenues: Aion made I think 200-300 million dollar revenues worldwide even in its second and third year. Most MMO's, not even the newly launched ones, cannot come even close. That's a number that's impossible to do if it'd just be the population of a handful of servers. So worldwide, outside of EU/NA, there must be a whole lot more Aion players.

Metentso · March 2012

Originally posted by Loke666

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

Yeah, assuming that all players have X-fire installed.

You can´t count like that. even if all players had xfire it could still just mean that people just play every third day. It is not a good sign of course and the game surely have lost some players but judging exactly how many based on xfire is impossible.

Xfire is also a lot more popular in some regions than others, here in Sweden don't I know a single person using it, we use vent instead (or Scype for really small groups) while it is very popular in the US. So for an instance if the game lost more US players than European (assuming E'the rest of EU do like Swedeb which also wont hold up in court) you would get a number far from reality.

Actually it would be assuming that xFire is representative of the general population. It doesn't need to all players to have it installed to be the same %. But I don't think it is representative. I think xFire players are hardcore, more likely to go from game to game to try it and flee if it's not up to their high expectation in regards of PVP mainly.

So maybe the drop is half of that of xFire for the general population, that would be around 800.000 players.

Could be something completely different. Who knows.

Zorgo · March 2012

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by Loke666

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

Yeah, assuming that all players have X-fire installed.

You can´t count like that. even if all players had xfire it could still just mean that people just play every third day. It is not a good sign of course and the game surely have lost some players but judging exactly how many based on xfire is impossible.

Xfire is also a lot more popular in some regions than others, here in Sweden don't I know a single person using it, we use vent instead (or Scype for really small groups) while it is very popular in the US. So for an instance if the game lost more US players than European (assuming E'the rest of EU do like Swedeb which also wont hold up in court) you would get a number far from reality.

Actually it would be assuming that xFire is representative of the general population. It doesn't need to all players to have it installed to be the same %. But I don't think it is representative. I think xFire players are hardcore, more likely to go from game to game to try it and flee if it's not up to their high expectation in regards of PVP mainly.

So maybe the drop is half of that of xFire for the general population, that would be around 800.000 players.

Could be something completely different. Who knows.

Bioware knows.

Metentso · March 2012

Originally posted by Zorgo

Originally posted by Metentso

Originally posted by Loke666

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

Yeah, assuming that all players have X-fire installed.

You can´t count like that. even if all players had xfire it could still just mean that people just play every third day. It is not a good sign of course and the game surely have lost some players but judging exactly how many based on xfire is impossible.

Xfire is also a lot more popular in some regions than others, here in Sweden don't I know a single person using it, we use vent instead (or Scype for really small groups) while it is very popular in the US. So for an instance if the game lost more US players than European (assuming E'the rest of EU do like Swedeb which also wont hold up in court) you would get a number far from reality.

Actually it would be assuming that xFire is representative of the general population. It doesn't need to all players to have it installed to be the same %. But I don't think it is representative. I think xFire players are hardcore, more likely to go from game to game to try it and flee if it's not up to their high expectation in regards of PVP mainly.

So maybe the drop is half of that of xFire for the general population, that would be around 800.000 players.

Could be something completely different. Who knows.

Bioware knows.

I know

70% loss today. Seems there is no stop.

gervaise1 · March 2012

Originally posted by Minny

69 % loss from maximum numbrr of XFire players.
So 69 % loss of 1.7 million max would be 500 k ...

500 k was the bear minimum to break even !

with diablo 3, GW2 and MoP incoming, I see further cuts from EA to control the damage. Forget voice overs in expansion packs and probably huge cuts in support and server numbers.

XFire players who also play SWTOR are representative of SWTOR players i n general what we don't know is how representative. There will be bias - fewer people in Sweden using XFire maybe ; there will be a margin of error.

Suggesting 100% correlation will upset some people!

Fed1 · March 2012

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

rguilbert · April 2012

Originally posted by Fed1

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December. Now there are 16-17000.

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire. Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

The point people are making is the relative decline. Not how many subscriptions are active. There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

Ubel12 · April 2012

All I know is simply this. Bioware ( I love you btw Bioware ), is that they can spin a great story no matter which way you look at it. This game, the one we are all talking about has a great story, and that story is translated through all classes. Take a momnent and appreciate the story they are tyring to telll. Enjoy the game for what it is. I respect Bioware for what they made us, what they worked so hard to accomplish. All I have to do is thank Bioware. They are truely gamers best friends.

Fed1 · April 2012

Originally posted by rguilbert

Originally posted by Fed1

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December. Now there are 16-17000.

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire. Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

The point people are making is the relative decline. Not how many subscriptions are active. There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

Except that the ratio of hardcore to casual is different now than it was in December. The hardcore that bought and played the 1st month have mostly moved on.

itgrowls · April 2012

was shocked to see that a december thread was still alive in here....(brushes the cobwebs from his shoulders).

Metentso · April 2012

Originally posted by rguilbert

Originally posted by Fed1

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.
Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.
Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

If I remember right, there were 80,000 per day played in December. Now there are 16-17000.

So, based on your theory about casual users:

If Xfire hours played per day for TOR accurately shows people playing 2-3 hours per week...

Then we should interpret the 120,000 hours played per week as there being 48,000 casual players playing TOR now on Xfire.

We can also interpret the earlier 560,000 hours played per week (during the first month) as there being 224,000 casual players playing TOR per week in December on Xfire.

Seems like 176,000 casual players have quit playing TOR on Xfire. Any way you slice it...a decline is a decline.

The point people are making is the relative decline. Not how many subscriptions are active. There is no way to spin this (no matter how much you like the game).

Actually it's from 12000 (max in 2th january) to 4000 (now) xFire players, per day. Would be 84000 and 28000 per week.

gervaise1 · April 2012

Originally posted by Fed1

I hope all realize that a drop in people playing per day or hours per day has nothing to do with the number of people subscribed. Especially in a story content driven MMO like SWTOR geared towards the more casual.

Example Casual games can have the bulk of players playing 2-3 days a week vs Hardcore where players play 6-7 days a week. So, a casual game with 500k playing a day would 1.5+ million subs. OTHO, A hardcore game with 500k would have 500k subs.

Unfortunately, XFIRE does not provide data on subs or even the relative hardcorness of its users.

Fed1: on what basis are you making your claims - about hardcore and non-hardcore players etc. First there is a relationship - that's what statistics is about; what we don't know is how good the relationship is. Saying SWTOR is a single player game and so folks hon't need something like XFire or Vent would potentially be more damming! What would that say about the long term future of SWTOR as an mmo however>

Some valid points have been made about your example - and it is worth questoning the data.

The fact remains however that the high average hours played in the first week or two matched EA's happy talk about how many hours SWTOR had notched up. Then EA gave an average number of hours per player and .... roll of the drums ... that matched up as well.

Now years down the line when you have an unknown number of sleeper accounts who hardly play it will be much harder - but SWTOR is only 3 months old.

RefMinor · April 2012

I noticed yesterday was down nearly 10% to 3911 on the prior Sunday, possible a lack of weekend trial affected this, seems like a fair drop in 1 week.

GMan3 · April 2012

Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire? Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

Rosha · April 2012

So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.

So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

RefMinor · April 2012

Originally posted by GMan3

Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire? Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

not sure about in MMO category only but in all games highest was 4th, currently 7th

XFIRE Game Rank : 7

No change for 0 days

Highest Rank: 4 on 2012-01-17

Publisher : Electronic Arts

Release Date : 2011-12-20

Genre : Role-Playing

Metentso · April 2012

Originally posted by GMan3
Can someone tell me if SWTOR is still the second highest played MMO tracked by XFire? Last I knew it was second only to WoW and for obvious reasons.

Yes it is, but it's much closer to Aion than to WoW. Wow has 18.000 players, SWTOR 4.000, Aion 2.000, Eve 1000.

In january SWTOR had 12.000, so you can guess where this is going if things don't change. It's losing 2-4% every week.

DAY

DATE

# PLAYERS

% PREV WEEK

% FROM MAX

NOTES

Monday	05/03/12	4582	-19,42%	-61,17%
Tuesday	06/03/12	4371	-9,37%	-62,96%
Wednesday	07/03/12	4398	-6,62%	-62,73%
Thursday	08/03/12	4272	-4,92%	-63,80%
Friday	09/03/12	4216	-8,03%	-64,27%
Saturday	10/03/12	4487	-5,68%	-61,97%
Sunday	11/03/12	4652	-8,26%	-60,58%
Monday	12/03/12	4384	-4,32%	-62,85%
Tuesday	13/03/12	4170	-4,60%	-64,66%
Wednesday	14/03/12	4299	-2,25%	-63,57%	free 7 day trial
Thursday	15/03/12	4444	4,03%	-62,34%	free week end
Friday	16/03/12	4667	10,70%	-60,45%
Saturday	17/03/12	4981	11,01%	-57,79%
Sunday	18/03/12	5186	11,48%	-56,05%
Monday	19/03/12	4237	-3,35%	-64,09%
Tuesday	20/03/12	4025	-3,48%	-65,89%
Wednesday	21/03/12	3950	-8,12%	-66,53%
Thursday	22/03/12	4029	-9,34%	-65,86%
Friday	23/03/12	3908	-16,26%	-66,88%
Saturday	24/03/12	4238	-14,92%	-64,08%
Sunday	25/03/12	4323	-16,64%	-63,36%
Monday	26/03/12	3774	-10,93%	-68,02%
Tuesday	27/03/12	3718	-7,63%	-68,49%
Wednesday	28/03/12	3657	-7,42%	-69,01%
Thursday	29/03/12	3638	-9,70%	-69,17%
Friday	30/03/12	3508	-10,24%	-70,27%	all-time low
Saturday	31/03/12	3718	-12,27%	-68,49%
Sunday	01/04/12	3911	-9,53%	-66,86%

RefMinor · April 2012

Originally posted by Rosha

So in a quick guild poll, 202 guildies responsed and only 4 of our people use Xfire - not a great representation, that's not even a "good" representation.
So personally I can't harken that Xfire is a be all end all of anything as more than half of those players spend their time pvping.

You do understand the concept of statistics? 2% is a very good sample base for a large population, to put it into context political polls have in the uk for a poll taking 2000 out of 40,000,000 voters (not exact figUres) 0.005%

itgrowls · April 2012

I'm no fan, but i do have to point out that it could just be like Rift is right now, people waiting for a particular patch. Right now Rift players en masse are waiting for 1.8 it could be that SWTOR players are waiting for 1.2 (especially since it has everything that was missing).

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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire

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