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WoW vs. SWTOR viability - the key stat is new players

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  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by sicness277

    Originally posted by blackweb

     

    These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.

    Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.

     It is a fact that there were 20-35 characters leveling on Courscant yesterday.   It is a fact that in SWTOR yesterday on Courscant, I recruited 20 new characters, about 1/4 of whom were alts in a few hours.  While these facts may disagree with the myths and outright falsehoods spewed in this an other forums about SWTOR, they are nonetheless facts.

  • waynejr2waynejr2 Member EpicPosts: 7,769

    Originally posted by tixylix

    Originally posted by Damon

    I think there is a design flaw in SW:TOR.  The zones are planets.  On top of this, the fleet is the hub of social interaction.  So, most players do not intereact with new players and the starting areas are empty.  In contrast, WoW has starting areas just outside the major cities.  I think it is important to have starting areas around major hubs, then have the content designed to be progressively difficult the further you venture away from the hub.

    Yeh and in beta it was like that with the Capitals being used until they added fleets in which ruined the game.

    I agree, adding the fleets hurt imo.  They should have keep people on the planets.

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  • sicness277sicness277 Member UncommonPosts: 40

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by sicness277


    Originally posted by blackweb

     

    These so called 'facts' are hardly definitive though. Just because you came to a conclusion from your personal experience doesn't mean in any way that's the actual situation of these games. Your point of view is considerably more biased than anyone countering you because you're basing your 'conclusion' off extremely minimal research.

    Stop trying to write people's opinions off just because they disagree with your obviously flawed research that you claim is conclusive when it's anything but. I could just as easily make the same claims that you did in favor of WoW, but without any any logical research done it's not as definitive as you'd like it to be.

     It is a fact that there were 20-35 characters leveling on Courscant yesterday.   It is a fact that in SWTOR yesterday on Courscant, I recruited 20 new characters, about 1/4 of whom were alts in a few hours.  While these facts may not disagree with the myths and outright falsehoods spewed in this an other forums about SWTOR, they are nonetheless facts.

    Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

    Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

    The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

  • MosesZDMosesZD Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by Damon

    I think there is a design flaw in SW:TOR.  The zones are planets.  On top of this, the fleet is the hub of social interaction.  So, most players do not intereact with new players and the starting areas are empty.  In contrast, WoW has starting areas just outside the major cities.  I think it is important to have starting areas around major hubs, then have the content designed to be progressively difficult the further you venture away from the hub.

    If new characters is the measure of good design, SWTOR is clearly winning.

     

    Besides ineptly interpreted comments by incomptent game "journalists" (and I wince everytime I connect those terms) where is the evidence?    Or, in short, why are the trends so bad for SWTOR?   http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

     

    Do your trends.  Know they haven't added servers, besides the 3 Oceanic servers, since the 20th of December.  

     

    And now...   More than 80% of them spend at least 50% of their time in 'light' status, which is around 450 or fewer players.  (I know with 477 you'll get a "standard" population.)   The threads for server mergers are constantly spawning and constantly being shut down.   The 'official' server merger thread has gone over 1,000s of posts repeatedly...

     

    And now we have the desperation huge marketing campaign that didn't work (sales keep dropping, game was at 58 last week, down from 53 the week before...   The free trials haven't helped.    It's a laugher.

     

    And yet you're telling us SWTOR is kicking butt and taking names?    With Tera, GW2 and TSW coming out...  

     

    SWTOR = Warhammer by summer's end...

     

     

  • BunksBunks Member Posts: 960

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by Bunks

    http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340773 Server Merges

     http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=350700&page=71 Server  population is dropping...

     http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=375176 Is this game dying already or is it just slowing down?

    http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=340708 When will there be a "SERVER MERGE?"

     http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=374849 Give us 1.2 as it is FAST !!! Too many players leaving the game !!!



    and of course who can forget the "active" players polled http://i.imgur.com/DMObE.png

     

    Yeah, sure this game is surging! LOL

     

    and listen to the radio podcast from teh guild leader sumit. All but two guilds were crying about a severe drop in members and no new players joning, well except rerolling alts.

    QQ threads are not facts.

    Nor is your anecdotal evidence, since there is 100 times more anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

    Server status, player polling, EA using nebulous statements that can be truth from one extreme to the other, Xfire trends, falling new game sales,and even forum QQing, all add up to the game headed in one direction. The only question now is, how much.

  • Fikusthe4thFikusthe4th Member Posts: 47

    Ahh, but the key to attacting new players is your veterans or long term players. The number of new players is connected with the number of old players. The fewer you have of one, the fewer you'll have of the other.

     

  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

    On January  8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion,  one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers.     This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold.     Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard.   Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.

     

    Thanks to MosesZD for the info.

    As a guild leader, all that matters is actual characters logged in and playing the game.  When statistics disagree with what I actually see in game, I will go with what I see in game.

    There really is only one way to verify what I am saying.  Log into both games at about the same time and go to the zone in question and do a /who 1-20 or whatever you are looking for.   Those are the only statisitcs that matter to the viablity of an MMORPG.

  • gu357u53rgu357u53r Member Posts: 113

    Originally posted by sicness277

    Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

    Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

    The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

    You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?


    Originally posted by blackweb

    Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by blackweb


    Originally posted by RefMinor
     
    On January  8th, with sales at 1.88 miillion,  one week after the new year, servers were (by hours/status) approximately 30% heavy, 45% standard, 25% light and wait times were still possilble on the heaviest servers.     This weekend's peak, including TRIAL USERS was 4% heavy 44% standard and 52% light on 2.22 million units sold.     Further, over 80% of all servers now run at 50% or less time at standard.   Some servers have not gotten out of light for weeks.
     
    Thanks to MosesZD for the info.

    As a guild leader, all that matters is actual characters logged in and playing the game.  When statistics disagree with what I actually see in game, I will go with what I see in game.

     

    But what about the facts, you said you wanted facts, there they are, and they show problem for SWTOR.
  • musicmannmusicmann Member UncommonPosts: 1,095

    Originally posted by Zorgo

    I believe the industry is ripe for an innovation to keep the starter zones occupied so that entering players are not in a waste land.

    I have seen games 'attempt' various things to combat this, however they  seem to have either fallen short or created a domino effect of unintended consequences.

    For examples:

    Soloability - I believe the reason people screamed for it and the reason it was implemented in many games, including but not limited to, EQ2, WoW, Rift, WAR, etc. At last, it is possible to level an alt or enter a game after the initial crowd levels.

    Unintened consequences

    - the initial 'crowd' upon release stopped grouping to reach max level. It may have provided those trickling in with the ability to level up and join the fun at end game, but it killed a major social element for everyone.

    - leveling ceases to be the game, it becomes a process to reach the game; although soloability isn't solely responsible for end game focus, it drew a solid line between what had been a fuzzy transition before between leveling and end game.

    - the game by design, is 'lonely'. Related to the first consequence, the entire atmosphere of an mmo is forever altered by soloability.

    Mentoring:

    Now your high level friends can come help you in newbie zones and have some benefit for themselves.

    Unintended consequence:

    It formalizes 'power leveling'. Where before this was a player-driven use of skills, and totally altruistic, it became a game mechanic. All of the fun of levelling is sapped right out as it becomes a zerg fest to by-pass the game for the end game. Perhaps not so much a terrible mechanic, but definately terribly implemented.

    Fast leveling:

    It will take me as long to reach max level as it did the initial crowd, no matter how many expansions.

    Whatever time it took you to reach 60 in vanilla WoW, is very likely to be about the same amount of time it would take to max to 85 (or 90 soon) starting a new toon today. **RULE OF THUMB ; illustration of fast leveling theory/philosophy only**

    Unintended consequences:

    Too many to name but to highight:

    - Newbs at end game: people reach 85 without mastering initial content

    - Obsolete gear and questlines. Rememer that cool quest in the level 30 zone that got you that cool epic item? Yeah don't bother, a green drop from the lvl 30 zone in the new expansion will be twice as good.

    - Starter zones needing to be completely re-worked to make since with a game with twice the levels as release.

    Cross-server dungeon finders:

    At last a group for the level 12 dungeon.

    Go to any forum about mmo's and get your popcorn for the unintended consequences.

     

    -So what is next? Those either don't work, change what an 'mmo' is, or are very poorly implemented. But hey, at least they're trying.



    I believe the industry is ripe for a AAA gaming company to step out from behind the so called norm mode of building mmo's and bring back true virtual world mmorpgs once again. It's time to leave the raiding and pvp gear merry go grind with WOW and bring back indepth resource crafting and a real players economy. I can't believe people think that planets are dead in TOR because the social hub is the fleet. The game feels dead because there's no real player interdependency tools that creates a strong community. For some reason, developers have brainwashed mmo gamers into believing that the game doesn't start until max level. Everything in between is just to get to that magical number and then the fun starts, and TOR is no different. The only thing they did is diguised the path with story, but once there, it is the same old merry go gear grind through raiding and pvp.

    MMORPG's are supposed to take you to this virtual world that from the 1st sec on login, you are trying to figure out your place in it. It's about being social and coming together as a community in ways other than combat. It should give you fun right from the start and not be so easy to be able to figure it all out within a week, but not be so hard that you are still lost after a month. Developers are really in my opinion, trying to turn the genre into nothing more than a glorified console sub genre.

    It's very easy to see that almost every AAA mmo that has come after WOW has been dumbed down and made less open and virtual. If you sit and compare WOW's game world to TOR's, it doesn't take much to see how closed off and dead TOR feels compared. Name a mmo and compare, facts are facts. MMORPG's should not be about  the 1, 2 , 3 direct path approach, that is how console games are made. MMO's, should never run on a straight line and should always strive to be off beat as possble. When a developer can put all that together, in my opinion, then and only then, will have a product that is worthy of the mmorpg title.

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by gu357u53r


    Originally posted by sicness277



    Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.
    Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.
    The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

    You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?


    Originally posted by blackweb

    Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

     

    However, I would rather have a glass that leaked 10ml a minute that was filled by 9ml a minute (WoW) than one that leaked 50ml a minute but was filled with 20ml a minute (SWTOR)

  • MosesZDMosesZD Member UncommonPosts: 1,361

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by echose7en


    Originally posted by blackweb

     

    You are comparing a game that was just released to a game that has been out for 7 odd years, mmos after so long tend to be top heavy level wise.

    Just becasue thats what you encounted on that server with your guild does not making it fact across the board, one of the biggest thread on SWTOR is one complaining about their servers being dead and that is a new game thats not been released long, not a good sign.

     

    Again, just because facts disagree with your closely held beliefs does not make them wrong.  Go take a look on your server(s), prove me wrong if you can.   I think you will find a pattern across almost all WoW and SWTOR servers, SWTOR is growing, WoW is in maintenance mode at  best.

     

    Ah, ha ha hah ahaaa.....    That's rich.   The answer is NO.    

     

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

     

    No servers have been added, save three Oceania servers, since 12/20/2011.   Server-hours are now over 50% LIGHT during weekend play.  That's peak play and a doubling of this negative measurement (25% to 50%).     Server hours are now just 3% heavy on weekends (during peak playtime), down from 30% heavy on January 8th.   That's 1/10th the 'heavy status' hours of January 8th.

     

    So a doubling of time spent in light (under 450 players) and one-tenth the time spent in heavy...   And you're saying SWTOR growing?   Face the facts.   Just face 'em.   Make your peace with the upcoming server mergers and stop pretending this game is an unqualified success.   It's not.

     

    The only thing SWTOR is better at is contracting.    It's crashing and burning at a  much faster rate than WoW...

     

  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by Bunks

    Server status, player polling, EA using nebulous statements that can be truth from one extreme to the other, Xfire trends, falling new game sales,and even forum QQing, all add up to the game headed in one direction. The only question now is, how much.

    I left wow because I could no longer maintain a viable guild there due to decreasing numbers of new players coming to the game.  I concluded that wow is in fact a dying game.   In SWTOR I have found the opposite.   My guild has continued to grow and gain new members.  What is more, the quality of the new members is much higher.   In SWTOR, about half of new members stay and become active, contributing guild members.   In WoW, I found that only about 1 in 20 recruits become active, contributing guild members.  Yes, wow is moving in one direction, down and MoP will not save it.   For us on our SWTOR server, the game is moving in one direction, up.

  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    Ah, ha ha hah ahaaa.....    That's rich.   The answer is NO.    

     

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

     

    No servers have been added, save three Oceania servers, since 12/20/2011.   Server-hours are now over 50% LIGHT during weekend play.  That's peak play and a doubling of this negative measurement (25% to 50%).     Server hours are now just 3% heavy on weekends (during peak playtime), down from 30% heavy on January 8th.   That's 1/10th the 'heavy status' hours of January 8th.

     

    So a doubling of time spent in light (under 450 players) and one-tenth the time spent in heavy...   And you're saying SWTOR growing?   Face the facts.   Just face 'em.   Make your peace with the upcoming server mergers and stop pretending this game is an unqualified success.   It's not.

     

    The only thing SWTOR is better at is contracting.    It's crashing and burning at a  much faster rate than WoW...

     

    Sever stats on websites dont mean anything.  All that matters is players in game.   The wow leveling zones are deserted while the SWTOR leveling zones, at least on my server are bustling.

  • sicness277sicness277 Member UncommonPosts: 40

    Originally posted by gu357u53r

    Originally posted by sicness277



    Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.

    Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.

    The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

    You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?


    Originally posted by blackweb

    Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

    His information may have a valid claim, but again it's hardly as conclusive as he's making it out to be considering the minimal research done. Not to mention the fact that his information is solely from his point of view and could be completely made up for all we know. (I'm not saying it actually is, just that he's providing no proof of his research, just claims of it).

    I could go even further pointing out how one game is in it's infancy while the other is nearing an expansion, a point where most people in the game will be at level cap. There are several other factors that make his 'research' incoclusive and likely completely biased for all we know. And I'm sorry, but I'm not going to just take someone's word that game A is doing better than game B just because the minimal research they did makes it look that way.

  • jtcgsjtcgs Member Posts: 1,777

    it does not make a difference if 500 million people are playing a game.

    If the game is shallow, lacking in depth and has poorly implimented ideas...the entire planet can be playing it and wont make it even a little bit better.

    Seriously...go log into hello kitty online and play it alone...then have 30 of your friends log in and play with them and come back here and tell me that hello kitty online is actually a good game with the right people playing it.

     

    Yeah...thats what I thought.

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  • sicness277sicness277 Member UncommonPosts: 40

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    Ah, ha ha hah ahaaa.....    That's rich.   The answer is NO.    

     

    http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

     

    No servers have been added, save three Oceania servers, since 12/20/2011.   Server-hours are now over 50% LIGHT during weekend play.  That's peak play and a doubling of this negative measurement (25% to 50%).     Server hours are now just 3% heavy on weekends (during peak playtime), down from 30% heavy on January 8th.   That's 1/10th the 'heavy status' hours of January 8th.

     

    So a doubling of time spent in light (under 450 players) and one-tenth the time spent in heavy...   And you're saying SWTOR growing?   Face the facts.   Just face 'em.   Make your peace with the upcoming server mergers and stop pretending this game is an unqualified success.   It's not.

     

    The only thing SWTOR is better at is contracting.    It's crashing and burning at a  much faster rate than WoW...

     

    Sever stats on websites dont mean anything.  All that matters is players in game.   The wow leveling zones are deserted while the SWTOR leveling zones, at least on my server are bustling.

    Server stats mean nothing compared to your personal experience? And you have the audactiy to claim that other people are biased when they disagree with you?

  • gu357u53rgu357u53r Member Posts: 113

    Originally posted by RefMinor

    However, I would rather have a glass that leaked 10ml a minute that was filled by 9ml a minute (WoW) than one that leaked 50ml a minute but was filled with 20ml a minute (SWTOR)

    I would rather have a glass that never leaked to begin with.

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by jtcgs

    it does not make a difference if 500 million people are playing a game.
    If the game is shallow, lacking in depth and has poorly implimented ideas...the entire planet can be playing it and wont make it even a little bit better.
    Seriously...go log into hello kitty online and play it alone...then have 30 of your friends log in and play with them and come back here and tell me that hello kitty online is actually a good game with the right people playing it.
     
    Yeah...thats what I thought.

     

    Hello Kitty Online never recovered from the removal of FFA full loot PvP with permadeath in my opinion. Doesn't matter how mny people ply with you these days you can't bring back that rush.
  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by sicness277

    Server stats mean nothing compared to your personal experience? And you have the audactiy to claim that other people are biased when they disagree with you?

    Please read before you post.  When sever stats disagree with what I see in game, yes, they mean nothing.

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by gu357u53r


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by gu357u53r


    Originally posted by sicness277




    Again though, while they are facts they're hardly conclusive enough to make the claims that you're making. If you want to actually have a more definitive result then you must do much more research than random recruiting information from 2 servers.
    Your entire 'research' is the problem here. You think it's enough to make a valid conclusion that SWTOR is doing better than WoW when it's not even remotely close. You would need to do much more, unbiased, research.
    The facts may support your point of view, but they hardly define it in the way you're trying to claim.

    You failed to read his original post it is easy to come to the conclusion that his information has a valid claim, and proves his point. Without players, where is the game?


    Originally posted by blackweb

    Why are starting zone numbers so important to MMORPG viability?  Because without new players it is very difficult for guilds to recruit and form new guilds or replace losses due to attrition in existing guilds.   New blood is the key to guild and MMORPG viability.

     

    However, I would rather have a glass that leaked 10ml a minute that was filled by 9ml a minute (WoW) than one that leaked 50ml a minute but was filled with 20ml a minute (SWTOR)

    I would rather have a glass that never leaked to begin with.

     

    Unfortunately the best you get with that analogy is a 10million litre size glass that's not yet full being filled more than it leaks.
  • sicness277sicness277 Member UncommonPosts: 40

    Originally posted by blackweb

    Originally posted by sicness277

    Server stats mean nothing compared to your personal experience? And you have the audactiy to claim that other people are biased when they disagree with you?

    Please read before you post.  When sever stats disagree with what I see in game, yes, they mean nothing.

    You do realize there's more than the one server you play on don't you?

    Server stats are actual proof here, while your opinion of the game is going to be viewed from an extremely narrow point of view, yet you still claim that those stats are wrong and you're right?

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by blackweb


    Originally posted by sicness277
    Server stats mean nothing compared to your personal experience? And you have the audactiy to claim that other people are biased when they disagree with you?

    Please read before you post.  When sever stats disagree with what I see in game, yes, they mean nothing.

     

    http://www.torstatus.net/ven-zallow/history/7d#!/ven-zallow/trends/60d

     

    Here's the server stats for your particular server, it used to get to heavy, feel free, bury your head in the sand, just don't expect to be taken seriously.
  • blackwebblackweb Member UncommonPosts: 24

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

    Unfortunately the best you get with that analogy is a 10million litre size glass that's not yet full being filled more than it leaks.

    WoW does not have anywhere near 10 million paying subscribers.   WoW lost 2 million subs in 2011 alone.     Activision blizzard reported their first loss ever in 4th qtr 2011 due primarily to the loss of wow subs.Most subscribers are outside of EU and NA and pay much less to play than those in EU and NA do.   WoW is down to 2-3 million in EU and NA combined, if that.   WoW is no longer the behemoth it once was.

  • gu357u53rgu357u53r Member Posts: 113

    Originally posted by RefMinor

     

    Unfortunately the best you get with that analogy is a 10million litre size glass that's not yet full being filled more than it leaks.

    If your game is great, people will play.  If not they won't.  It happens all the time, things fail.  I would rather have a glass that didn't leak though.  The best you get with your analogy is a game that doesn't want players.  If it can't hold water, why should I play it?

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