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xFire isn't useless. It'll accurately show just how well the game is doing with xFire users.
It can definitely be used to suggest a trend amongst all users of that game, but that suggestion will not be significantly accurate. A true random sampling would include xfire users amongst non xFire users.
I think this is a case of using the wrong tool for the situation. No matter how much you want to user that hammer to crush that hex nut, you're probably better off with a socket wrench.
Originally posted by Sukiyaki Originally posted by Yamota Where is the source of information saying that XFire is created for FPS gamers? It is being bundled with all kinds of games and I have not seen or heard that it would be catering to any type of gamers. So again, source please. Also XFire is a random selection of SW:TOR players because I have not seen anything to suggest that, first what was said above, and second anything else to indicate that XFire users would be bias for or against SW:TOR. It is just a number of people who are playing, or haved played, SW:TOR and also happened to have XFire installed. It would be just as random as sending mails randomly to SW:TOR players.
Maybe you should look up by whom xfire was developed, what kind of games that person played and with what kind of community said person interacted with and what kind of functions and purpose xfire had when it was developed, before denying xfires own history to pretend its something it isnt. But considering your kind of notion towards ... or rather complete denial and ignorance about all the other previous aspects about x-fire, I doubt you will concede to the unpleasant reality in this case either. Oh wait... let me guess...! The developer of xfire just happens by pure coincidence, almost randomly, no pretty much randomly, to be a prominent now veteran e-sport star too. He could as well have been a baseball player.
So you want to keep insisting xfire just "happens" to "randomly" track only and exactly all xfire user and keep twisting the order and reasons which is tracked by whom, by what kind of selection critera and by whoms choice, just to make it sound a bit more "coincidentally" and then feign it a "random" and also still ignore the provided evidence for deviations from real surveys. Its apparent you have no intentions to stop relying on deliberate ignorance and denial and your case can be considered as closed.
But your stories are almost frightening. Maybe tommorow even I just happen to be randomly selected and suddenly have xfire installed on my computer either and from one second to another I start chatting with my non-existent xfire friends from my never existing old Quake3 clan. Damn you random selection! Damn you xfire "surveys", leaving us no choice!
Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by JoeyMMO Originally posted by Yamota *snip*
Ok I get what you are saying but we are talking about if the selection has any bearing on how representetive it is of the general population. Assuming that those who chose to install xFire does not represent any particular sub group of SW:TOR then it would be like a random selection.
It is like: I will poll SW:TOR users who were born on a specific week of the day. Assuming that the spread of days are roughly even, which it would be if you have millions of users, then your selection would be as representetive as people born in any other day. Unless you are claiming that people born in monday are less or more likely to stick with SW:TOR than those born on tuesday.
So what I am saying is that xFire users would not be more or less biased towards or for SW:TOR than any other selection of people so it is like randomly selecting SW:TOR users.
That still doesn't make it random. Some might argue that a larger percentage of hardcore gamers use Xfire compared to casual gamers. If TOR caters more to casual players you could have a reason for bias there. Being born on a given day is random, chosing to install and use Xfire isn't random.
Xfire is an indication, maybe not the best possible indication, but an indication. There's no way to know how representative they are for the general TOR population. I think it's a pretty good indication of what's going on, but it can be contested. Only actual cold hard numbers can't be contested.
For sure it can be contested but there are people who want to disregard it completely and unless I see some clear indication that xFire users are biased for/against SW:TOR I will not agree to that.
I mean just looking at the ten top of games being played on xFire you have MMORPGs, FPS and RTS games and actually 4 out of 10 are MMORPGs (two of which are considered casual, WoW and SW:TOR) so I am not buying the biased against casual MMORPGs thing.
xfire shows more people are playing Diablo 3 than AOC, DDO, COH, Everquest 2, Everquest and well, many more.
Diablo 2's at #37. Its a 2d game with horrendous graphics kicking ass on alot of newer games.
If xfire is really that accurate it's gotta scare developers like ArenaNet who are relying entirely on box sales and repeat business to pay for their big-budget Guild Wars 2.
My youtube MMO gaming channel
Originally posted by karat76 Don't think Xfire is very valid sampling for game health. In all my years of mmos I have yet to have a guildie or meet anyone who said they used it.
lol this argument never gets old.
A honest review of SW:TOR 6/10 (Danny Wojcicki)
Originally posted by Metentso Originally posted by karat76 Don't think Xfire is very valid sampling for game health. In all my years of mmos I have yet to have a guildie or meet anyone who said they used it.
Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by William12 Originally posted by Yamota Originally posted by FrodoFragins Originally posted by Yamota ,,,
There is no design behind random polling either, it is random. XFire is a random selection of SW:TOR gamers which has X-Fire installed so I would say it is like random polling.
Now there could be some bias in this selection of people, but I have not seen any facts supporting this statement. Like XFire is used mainly by FPS gamers, young people, etc. The only known bias I know of is that it is mainly a tool for the western audience so it is very inaccurate at gauging the eastern gaming trends.
XFire isn't a random selection. XFire attracts a certain type a gamer. How many casual gamers take the time to get and create an XFire account? I was aware of it for years and never bothered. There are still tons of people that don't even know what it is. I only discovered it because of forum signatures. Considering how many people don't used forums ...
Yes I keep hearing this but not seen any hard evidence of this. Not saying it is not true but it would be like saying casual gamers would be more likely to use goggle mail over yahoo than say hardcore gamers would. That could be the case but where is the evidence for such a statement?
As for people not knowing what it is, that is irrelevant. Alot of people dont know how polling works and have never been asked in polls, that does not invalidate the polls aslong as the poll sample is large enough and XFire sample is definetely large enough as only a random selection of 1000 is needed to get a maximum error of 5-10%. Assuming no bias in the selection and since no bias has been provent either way, you cannot invalidate the trends which XFire shows about SW:TOR.
I've said it before using Xfire to say a game is going down is like polling 15 republicans and 5 democrats on the job Obama is doing and expect that poll to be what people really think.
Then you are saying that xFire users would be biased against or for SW:TOR. You have no basis for such a statement, unlike your other example where you could reasonably claim that the republicans would be biased against Obama (because he is a democrat).
Why would a majority of SW:TOR xFire users be biased against SW:TOR? xFire is not a competitor to SW:TOR so there is no reason for such bias.
You are claiming statistical significance to XFire numbers that they themselves would and could never claim.
From 70.000 (in Dez/January as far I remember) down to 16.000.......wow
But you know how you notice that a server is declining and doesnt get a lot of new players ?
On the first months on the Auction House you could buy loads of stuff on one of such servers who were high and changed to standard.
And what happened ?
In the meanwhile you almost cant find stuff for lvl 10-30 .....AH is more or less dead for lower levels.
So you are one of the 25 million that hasn't used it.
Originally posted by dubyahite Yamota, it's not random at all. Random = roll of the dice or flip of the coin xFire = someone CHOSE to install it. Not even close to random.
Yes people choose to install XFire or not but this thread is not about who uses XFire etc.
The sample is: "XFire users who choose to (buy and) play SWTOR"
And this sample is random unless you believe that EA have deliberately gone out of their way to persuade XFire users to buy/not buy SWTOR. Nor is there evidence to suggest that XFire users prefer one type of online game over another.
People have to remember that there will be an error however and larger, probably, than the 2-5% we are used to seeing in polls. What we have observered so far however suggests that the error is not so large as to render XFire 'useless' e.g. the average hours played is in line with what EA have said subscribers play. If XFire users all played 20 hours a day then .....!!! but they don't. And so on.
So this weekend - if EA's marketing campaign has had any impact - there should be an increase in the number of people who "use XFire and play SWTOR". And then a drop off after the free weekend.Now we have no way of knowing how sucessful the free weekend will be but it is reasonable to assume that some people will try SWTOR so it is reasonable to look for a blip in the XFire player numbers.
Test and retest.
Don't think Yahoo is very good for searching the internet. In all my years of using the internet I have yet to have a friend or meet anyone who said they used it.
Originally posted by Crackbone X-fire has predicted the shrinking player base of many MMOs before TOR, I see no reason why TOR is any different. It's not accurate enough to give you actual subscription numbers, but it is quite accurate in displaying trends. The trend for TOR is down, and IMO, more so than it should be at this stage in the game's life. While I have no idea on TORs subscription numbers currently, X-fire combined with a ton in anecdotal evidence should be enough for anyone to see as it stands this game is both having a problem with retention and with a less active player base. Neither of this things are good.
I completely agree and so would anyone else but the blind fanboys or those without a firm grasp of statistics.
Tho, I have to say that, while Xfire does provide a good measure of the general population trend of a game, i'd be more hesitant to predict anything in terms of the number of subs, based on the xfire data at this point in time. It is well-known that most MMOs tend to drop in population during the first couple of months post launch and people tend to play less after the honey-moon effect has worn off.
To which extent the decline in swtor population is due to the expected downtrend all new MMOs exhibit or a genuine and more sever population issue is a bit 'hazy' when judging on xfire data alone. But like you said, combine all the sources of data we have (some more reputable than others), all of which mirror this downtrend i might add and they paint a pretty grim picture indeed.
* Waves at Pushkina *
Originally posted by gervaise1
Nor is there evidence to suggest that XFire users prefer one type of online game over another.
There is evidence that XFire users prefer one type of online game over another. FPS and RTS gamers have had to install XFire to stay in touch with their friends and find servers. MMO gamers, who have traditionally been bound to one server and had good communication tools in-game, haven't had similar reason to install XFire.
EDIT: Also there's 'evidence' to suggest that people who are new to multiplayer games and have previously played mostly single player games (KOTOR, Mass Effect, Dragon Age) are less likely to have XFire installed than those people who're more used to playing online games. And there's 'evidence' to suggest that fans of previous Bioware games might be playing also new Bioware games /EDIT
Originally posted by Vrika Originally posted by gervaise1
Nor is there evidence to suggest that XFire users prefer one type of online game over another.
Also there is "evidence" that people new to multiplayer games have a tendency to install xFire in the early weeks and prgressively uninstall it over the next weeks.
Originally posted by Metentso Originally posted by Vrika Originally posted by gervaise1
Nor is there evidence to suggest that XFire users prefer one type of online game over another.
Maybe, just maybe, the people who use XFire are actually people who like FPS and RTS and twitch style MMOs. These people would normally not change thier preferences and stay with a game that is none of the above, even if they tried it for a while. Maybe thats more likely that the total BS you are spitting there trying your best to be a smart ass and make a point.
At some point in time you XFire people will just have to admit that you like certain things that others may not like. And that no matter how much you try and tell those people, they are not going to like what you do. So all these numbers you have, giving trends about what you like, just are not going to be useful to trend what the other guy likes. YOU DO NOT HAVE THE SAME TASTE IN GAMES AS THEY DO, GET OVER IT, YOUR LIKES ARE NOT WHAT EVERYONE LIKES, YOUR DISLIKES ARE NOT WHAT EVERYONE DISLIKES. DO YOU GET IT YET? YOUR NUMBERS TELL US WHAT YOU LIKE AND WHAT YOU DO NOT, THEY DO NOT TELL US WHAT EVERYONE LIKES OR DISLIKES.
Just sayin ya' know. It is very well possible that the people who use Xfire use it for a reason, found it for a reason, decided to install it for a reason. And with that there might also be a reason those that dont have it, decided not to go look for it, decided not to install it. Did any of you ever stop to figure out why that was?
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
Originally posted by Kaocan Maybe, just maybe, the people who use XFire are actually people who like FPS and RTS and twitch style MMOs. These people would normally not change thier preferences and stay with a game that is none of the above, even if they tried it for a while. Maybe thats more likely that the total BS you are spitting there trying your best to be a smart ass and make a point. At some point in time you XFire people will just have to admit that you like certain things that others may not like. And that no matter how much you try and tell those people, they are not going to like what you do. So all these numbers you have, giving trends about what you like, just are not going to be useful to trend what the other guy likes. YOU DO NOT HAVE THE SAME TASTE IN GAMES AS THEY DO, GET OVER IT, YOUR LIKES ARE NOT WHAT EVERYONE LIKES, YOUR DISLIKES ARE NOT WHAT EVERYONE DISLIKES. DO YOU GET IT YET? YOUR NUMBERS TELL US WHAT YOU LIKE AND WHAT YOU DO NOT, THEY DO NOT TELL US WHAT EVERYONE LIKES OR DISLIKES. Just sayin ya' know. It is very well possible that the people who use Xfire use it for a reason, found it for a reason, decided to install it for a reason. And with that there might also be a reason those that dont have it, decided not to go look for it, decided not to install it. Did any of you ever stop to figure out why that was?
I certainly doubt people who are into twitch based games are going to like a game like TOR. Those that like to rush to endgame are best playing something else. That should have been obvious the very moment STORY was advertised as the major selling point of the game.
Currently Playing: Star Wars The Old Republic
Why don't people use common sense?
We know SWTOR population is declining by the statement of the game having 1.7million subs however amount of time after they announced 2 million sold, we know in the difference of time the game would have sold at least a few hundred thousand more.
We also know that the server list has gone from mostly heavy to mostly standard. The three servers I made characters on all went from full to standard and the population on each planet dropped over the months and the population on the fleet went from 200ish to 40-80 during peak. So i don't believe Bioware have kept on increasing the server limit after Jan as the population has clearly dropped. There are still probably a lot of people playing, maybe around 1.5 million now but there are far too many servers and they need to start merging them or more people will quit on low populated servers.
Originally posted by Kaocan Originally posted by Metentso Originally posted by Vrika Originally posted by gervaise1
Nor is there evidence to suggest that XFire users prefer one type of online Mgame over another.
Merging servers will definitely need to be done at some point for at least some servers, all MMO lose subs after the initial launch "honeymoon" & SWTOR is no different, the weekend Pass & Friend Trials - along with a big advertising campaign should up the ante a bit but may not put boots on the ground on the servers most needing fresh blood.
The past week on my server has seen the first real decline in numbers, I think the players hit 50 faster & in larger numbers than BioWare had planned for & the future focus will need to put a much bigger emphasis on creating stuff for the maxed players to do, harder difficulty raids are 1 part of that but they will need to step up to the plate & pump out a pretty large amount of content in the game's 1st year to have a chance of remaining successful, 2012 is going to be a fearsomely competitive year for MMO's & a bunch of high-profile titles are on the way:
Project Copernicus (MMO in same setting as Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning)
& that's just the ones that spring to mind.
I could point to XFires current /recent 'top' games e.g. WoW and LoL, other mmos along with those that 'charted' highly (Rift, WAR, AoC etc. ). Maybe XFire is really an mmo tracker! Suggesting mmos have/have had good ingame tools speaks volumes however.
I could ask for a link to the evidence about the makeup of the current XFire users population - but we know there are no studies; not the 'what XFire was developed for population but the current population'. But this isn't about XFire.
HOWEVER you can call the sample self-selected by all means. Which would make it - a sample with an unknown margin of error.
Either way all we haveis a sample of XFire users who play SWTOR. Tracking them suggests certain things about SWTOR with an unknown margin of error. The key question, covered pages back is: is the margin of error 'good enough' - and so far it has 'matched' what we know e.g. during EGA. Now if XFire users had increased when EA said that follow on subs had gone down serious questions would be the order of the day.
We should still challenge what we see however: there is a free weekend - will XFire reflect this? And next week sees another sub-renewal point, the end of 60 day timecards etc.
But I think I might just go and play that well known mmo, or is it FPS, called Minecraft. Ranked 5 on XFire today is it?
Two days having an increase from same day in previous week, after months of constant decrease. If it wasn't that xFire "doesn't mean shit", I'd say it has a relation to the free trial.
The disposition of xfire users towards certain genres do not matter, since we do not compare SWTOR to Call of Duty series numbers or anything like that, we are comparing it to the other MMOs which are tracked by xfire. Infact we are not even talking about the xfire population as such, we are only talking about the rather small subset of it that bought and installed SWTOR.
A continuing decline on ANY kind of statistic is bad in the absence of others showing a different trend. Even with faulty data(non changing source) there shouldn't be a steady decline. The poll mentioned above about asking 5 democrats and 15 rebublicans about Obama is an excellent example, yes it would be skewed and show a wrong result in the context of general population, but if repeated daily it wouldn't show a downward trend. Infact it would be less likely to show a downward trend as it would require one of the democrats to "switch sides"(provided the result was black and white for republic vs democrats votes) which likely would require a current negative event associated with obama.
Arguing wether a poll of xfire population is within 5% or within 50% of general population is meaningless until the xfire population of SWTOR has stabilized. Because whatever the delta is between general population and xfire users, it should be constant(if they prefer FPS it will be skewed, but its unlikely that more and more xfire users would begin to prefer FPS every day, unless SWTOR converted them somehow, and well that would be even worse for the game/genre). And a constant can not change the outcome of a downward or upward trend.
Saying the decline xfire shows is not really happening is essentially saying that the gap between general populace and xfire is growing rapidly every day, and that makes little sense.
Originally posted by Metentso DAY DATE # PLAYERS % PREV WEEK % MAXIMUM NOTES Thursday 01/03/12 4493 -12,69% -61,92% real Friday 02/03/12 4584 -10,63% -61,15% real Saturday 03/03/12 4757 -10,02% -59,69% real Sunday 04/03/12 5071 -7,97% -57,03% real Monday 05/03/12 4582 -19,42% -61,17% real Tuesday 06/03/12 4371 -9,37% -62,96% real Wednesday 07/03/12 4398 -6,62% -62,73% real Thursday 08/03/12 4272 -4,92% -63,80% real Friday 09/03/12 4216 -8,03% -64,27% real Saturday 10/03/12 4487 -5,68% -61,97% real Sunday 11/03/12 4652 -8,26% -60,58% real Monday 12/03/12 4384 -4,32% -62,85% real Tuesday 13/03/12 4170 -4,60% -64,66% real Wednesday 14/03/12 4299 -2,25% -63,57% real Thursday 15/03/12 4444 4,03% -62,34% start free trials Friday 16/03/12 4667 10,70% -60,45% real Two days having an increase from same day in previous week, after months of constant decrease. If it wasn't that xFire "doesn't mean shit", I'd say it has a relation to the free trial.
Another 10% increase from last saturday.
Isn't it amazing how variations in the general population are reflected in xFire despite the fact that xFire does not represent in any way the general population?
Amazing; 4981 XFire users playing SWTOR on the 17th March another 10%+ jump on the previous Saturday. Of course this can't possibly have anything to do with the free trial because if it does that would suggest some correlation between XFire and SWTOR players.....
So predictions for next week, well:
1. The free trial ends so a drop obviously; some of those trying the game may purchase but these are people who gave the game a miss at launch of course. The end of EA's fiscal quarter approaches however - will EA offer an fiscal incentive next week?
2. The 19th March - start of the new renewal period for EGA folks; end of 60 day time cards etc. Obviously some will have activated on the 25th Dec etc. but 1M+ was announced in EA's press release. Now some folk will have stopped playing already but there will surely be some who play to the end.
3. What about the 7 day free trials? EA pushed out a potential 6M+ trials. Given that XFire has gone up as a result of the free weekend it seems reasonable to assume that the impact of the 7day trials have shown up in the numbers .... no uptick though (and 6M+ is a lot) maybe a flattening out but no way of knowing whether that is the trials. It does suggest a reason why EA have launched the free weekend so soon after launch however.
So I think next week will see numbers below last week; Saturday 31st below Saturday 17th etc. Wouldn't be surprised if the drop got sharper either for a couple of weeks.