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Diablo 3: Analyst Predicts 5M Sales

2

Comments

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Suzie_Ford

    Trends analyst Cowen & Company is predicting that Blizzard will be able to sell five million copies of Diablo III during its first year of release. The company opines that a million of these sales will come via the World of Warcraft annual pass promotion where players receive D3 for free.

    pretty safe "opinion"

    Blizzard already stated that one million signed up for Annual pass

    http://wow.joystiq.com/2012/02/09/1-million-people-signed-up-for-the-wow-annual-pass/

     

    Blizzard stated in a August 29,2001 press release that D2 sold 4 million its first year

    http://www.gamesfirst.com/articles/diablo2_sales.htm

    Debuting in June, 2000 Diablo II has dominated PC game charts with sales of 4 million copies worldwide according to NPD INTELECT(a) and key retail accounts around the world. The game has also been awarded several accolades including the prestigious Computer Game of the Year, Computer Role Playing Game of the Year and Game of the Year for 2001 by the Academy of Interactive Arts and Sciences.

     

     

  • QSatuQSatu WarsawPosts: 1,735Member Uncommon

    nowadays selling 5m for big company, selling aaa title with big ip really isn't that hard when there are games which can sell like 10-15 milions. The games industry is growing and although selling a million or 2 is impressive it's definitly much easier for powerhouses like blizzard etc. And they already sold 1 million with WoW subs.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    I just love the no day 1 DLC, just saying

    image

  • OnomicOnomic TønsbergPosts: 196Member

    Originally posted by NightCloak

    Originally posted by DarkPony

    GW2 vs. D3: War for the casual (M)MO gamer who doesn't want to (or can't) afford a sub. Curious how the horses will run on this one.

    They are different enough from eachother that I suspect there wont be much of a "war". Even so, a significant enough portion of those interested in both will pick up both rather than just one over the other.

     

    But whatever competition may exist will only benefit us players more.

    Those bastards blizzard :) that announcement will actualy prevent gw2 sales.

    D3 is the game everyone i know in rl that play games will buy, non of em even knew that gw was makeing a new game befor i told em and i bet there is alot more people that know about d3 then gw2.

    This is actualy very bad news for gw2, another mmorpg would be much better for em to compete with, an old classic like diablo they will have a hard time with.

    I know without a doubt ill spend more time in gw2 but stil d3 is a must buy

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by Onomic

    Originally posted by NightCloak


    Originally posted by DarkPony

    GW2 vs. D3: War for the casual (M)MO gamer who doesn't want to (or can't) afford a sub. Curious how the horses will run on this one.

    They are different enough from eachother that I suspect there wont be much of a "war". Even so, a significant enough portion of those interested in both will pick up both rather than just one over the other.

     

    But whatever competition may exist will only benefit us players more.

    Those bastards blizzard :) that announcement will actualy prevent gw2 sales.

    D3 is the game everyone i know in rl that play games will buy, non of em even knew that gw was makeing a new game befor i told em and i bet there is alot more people that know about d3 then gw2.

    This is actualy very bad news for gw2, another mmorpg would be much better for em to compete with, an old classic like diablo they will have a hard time with.

    I know without a doubt ill spend more time in gw2 but stil d3 is a must buy

    The thing is Blizz could effectively deliver a one, two punch to GW2, first with D3 and then with the right timing of MoP, GW2 might have a lot of trouble. Say what you want but when WoW launches an Expansion the masses come back even if it is only for 30-60 days.

    image

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Dreadblade

    The thing is Blizz could effectively deliver a one, two punch to GW2, first with D3 and then with the right timing of MoP, GW2 might have a lot of trouble. Say what you want but when WoW launches an Expansion the masses come back even if it is only for 30-60 days.

    I think GW2 will be fine

    cmon, GW2 had 1 million beta signups in less than 50hrs

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/02/27/guild-wars-2-beta-signups-peaked-at-4-000-a-minute/

     

     

     

  • KyleranKyleran Tampa, FLPosts: 20,008Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by bronecar

    My expectations is they will sell around 10 mil copies.

    Even crappy games can go close to 5 mil.

    I for one will purchase this one :)

    Even though it's likely to be a crappy game? image

    It's true, people will buy just about anything these days.

     

     

    In my day MMORPG's were so hard we fought our way through dungeons in the snow, uphill both ways.
    "I don't have one life, I have many lives" - Grunty
    Still currently "subscribed" to EVE, and only EVE!!!
    "This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon

    I expect it to be higher, the beta was pretty amazing. Anyone who liked Diablo 2 will absolutely love Diablo 3. New people will also easily be introduced to the game as well as a bunch of new gamers. My prediction is 3m sales in first 48 hours and 7 million by 2013. 

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by Nadia

    Originally posted by Dreadblade

    The thing is Blizz could effectively deliver a one, two punch to GW2, first with D3 and then with the right timing of MoP, GW2 might have a lot of trouble. Say what you want but when WoW launches an Expansion the masses come back even if it is only for 30-60 days.

    I think GW2 will be fine

    cmon, GW2 had 1 million beta signups in less than 50hrs

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/02/27/guild-wars-2-beta-signups-peaked-at-4-000-a-minute/

     

     

     

    Yes we all know how well they did for a free beta, but now there is competition whereas there was none before, we will see.

    image

  • FrodoFraginsFrodoFragins Manchester, NHPosts: 2,932Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by NightCloak

    Originally posted by DarkPony

    GW2 vs. D3: War for the casual (M)MO gamer who doesn't want to (or can't) afford a sub. Curious how the horses will run on this one.

    They are different enough from eachother that I suspect there wont be much of a "war". Even so, a significant enough portion of those interested in both will pick up both rather than just one over the other.

     

    But whatever competition may exist will only benefit us players more.

    I'm just buying D3 and plan to play it into the ground.  GW2 will be the next purchase I make but likely by the time it's 50% off.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Originally posted by NightCloak


    Originally posted by DarkPony

    GW2 vs. D3: War for the casual (M)MO gamer who doesn't want to (or can't) afford a sub. Curious how the horses will run on this one.

    They are different enough from eachother that I suspect there wont be much of a "war". Even so, a significant enough portion of those interested in both will pick up both rather than just one over the other.

     

    But whatever competition may exist will only benefit us players more.

    I'm just buying D3 and plan to play it into the ground.  GW2 will be the next purchase I make but likely by the time it's 50% off.

    Agreed GW2 even if I was going to buy it was just shoved aside by D3.

    image

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by FrodoFragins

    Originally posted by NightCloak


    Originally posted by DarkPony

    GW2 vs. D3: War for the casual (M)MO gamer who doesn't want to (or can't) afford a sub. Curious how the horses will run on this one.

    They are different enough from eachother that I suspect there wont be much of a "war". Even so, a significant enough portion of those interested in both will pick up both rather than just one over the other.

     

    But whatever competition may exist will only benefit us players more.

    I'm just buying D3 and plan to play it into the ground.  GW2 will be the next purchase I make but likely by the time it's 50% off.

    Expect to wait a while for a sale like that. GW1 took a very long time to drop in price and so did each content package afterwards. Part of the reason they don't have a monthly fee is because they keep the box price at a standard retail price for much longer then the average MMO does.

  • clankyaspclankyasp sydneyPosts: 213Member

    There you go F2P Rift and swtor incoming.

  • ZeGermanZeGerman Andover, MAPosts: 197Member Uncommon

    Nice to say someone making an bold claim with absolutely no proof demonstrated isn't it.  I'll say right now i do not expect them to break 2.5 million in the first year.  There has been substantialy less interest in this game than in the other major games coming out soon.  If anything they may get a high number of initial buyers because of it is coming out first but the recuring revenue and number of users will drop substantialy as more games come out this year.

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by ZeGerman

    Nice to say someone making an bold claim with absolutely no proof demonstrated isn't it.  I'll say right now i do not expect them to break 2.5 million in the first year.  There has been substantialy less interest in this game than in the other major games coming out soon.  If anything they may get a high number of initial buyers because of it is coming out first but the recuring revenue and number of users will drop substantialy as more games come out this year.

    Yeah, because people who get paid to analyse the number of sales for a living have no proof of anything. They look at data for current and past trends,company history,statistical propability,ect in order to determine these numbers. They don't just pull stuff out of there ass. Analysts don't make predictions they think will be wrong and usually low ball it just incase so they can keep their credibility in check. If an analyst is wrong enough hes going to have some problems finding a job.

  • expressoexpresso mePosts: 2,183Member Uncommon

    Bah 2 months :p  I was hopeing for mid april at the latest.. oh well I can wait.  All the info that will appear this weekend from the WoW and D3 press events might tied me over.

  • kilunkilun Apopka, FLPosts: 709Member Common

    ZeGerman, I don't see how they won't get at least 5 million, I think that is a safe bet.  Mass Effect 3 sold 900k in first 24 hrs alone. 

    To think that Diablo III won't by the end of year is a stretch, I bet that is reached by end of summer.

    Starcraft sold over a million in first 24hrs, and over 3 million in first month alone.

    http://kotaku.com/5627224/starcraft-iis-first-month-sales-are-in

    Even if we don't count the WoW fanatics, I'd say we'll still hit five million by the end of summer.  I imagine it'll be the best selling game on the pc of the year by far.

    www.ozumgames.com

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by kilun

    Starcraft sold over a million in first 24hrs, and over 3 million in first month alone.

    http://kotaku.com/5627224/starcraft-iis-first-month-sales-are-in

    Even if we don't count the WoW fanatics, I'd say we'll still hit five million by the end of summer.  I imagine it'll be the best selling game on the pc of the year by far.

    I think D3 will sell great but is Blizzard making the same push as it did w SC2?

     

    SC2 launched in 5 continents on launch day

    http://kotaku.com/5603199/starcraft-ii-fastest-selling-strategy-game-of-all-time

    StarCraft II was released simultaneously in North America, Europe, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and the regions of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau on July 27.

  • khelbonkhelbon plaquemine, LAPosts: 102Member

    They probally got 1 million sold so far.

    One thing you have to see is that D3 is gonna have a LOT of people who played D1 or D2 and will buy D3 just for the sake that it is Diablo and its new. I mean hell, there is still thousands of D2 sites out there with plenty people still playing. I just see the game doing well in raw sale numbers. And sometimes a name can simply sell a game. Now a days it seems companies can make a game and sell 2 million copies simply by using a proven game name. Hell, Blizzard could make the next Xpac with flying monkeys who throw poop at you and robot pandas who shoot laser charged noodles at you in it and they would sell 5 million copies just cause it is World of Warcraft and people just gotta have it.

    Some people will buy anything cause of the name or how well the last item did not knowing anything. So yes, they will sell 5 million copies no doubt.

    Plus not having a sub fee means someone can buy it and play it when they want to and not worry about any sub fees and what not.

    Personally, I played D2 a TON back then but I will not be one of the mass people who buy it simply cause there is wayyy to many new games coming out this year and i do not have the time to play like I did back in 2002.

    Oh and for goodness sake, I am NOT a Blizzard fanboi. They could shut down tommorrow and I would care less. Just facing facts here.

    image

  • EricDanieEricDanie Rio de JaneiroPosts: 2,238Member

    Originally posted by Nadia




    Originally posted by kilun

    Starcraft sold over a million in first 24hrs, and over 3 million in first month alone.

    http://kotaku.com/5627224/starcraft-iis-first-month-sales-are-in



    Even if we don't count the WoW fanatics, I'd say we'll still hit five million by the end of summer.  I imagine it'll be the best selling game on the pc of the year by far.


    I think D3 will sell great but is Blizzard making the same push as it did w SC2?



    SC2 launched in 5 continents on launch day

    http://kotaku.com/5603199/starcraft-ii-fastest-selling-strategy-game-of-all-time

    StarCraft II was released simultaneously in North America, Europe, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and the regions of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Macau on July 27.


     

    Why wouldn't it receive the same push, if not a bigger push? Considering the profitable regions, they probably maintained their logistics for future simultaneous releases. 



    Edit - Sorry about ridiculous line spacing, dunno what happened.

     




     




     

  • AryasAryas LondonPosts: 337Member

    I've had Dildo III on pre-order for months now, and despite some of the lame things I've heard I'll still get it even if it's just for nostalgia value. To me it looks like cack - basically a proper dated game that's been tarted up in the graphics dept and not much else - but I'm willing to take a chance. As it stands right now, I'll probably 'try' and play it once through then uninstall. Then I'll fire up Guildwars 2, which I will also definitely pre-order.

     

    That said, if I was broke and could only get one game it would be Guildwars 2. I never got into the original GW mainly because I was too lazy to learn how to play it properly due to having already succumbed to the all-conquering WOW. But GW2 looks incredible and since I'm basically playing Triple Town and not much else right now, I'm going to really make a go of it this time around. I've never been more excited about a computer game until Guildwars 2, period. If it bombs, I'll likely knock gaming on the head altogether.

     

    Aryas



    EDIT: I'll just add that I've got a lot of respect for the A-Net/NCSoft/GW2 whatever people. They seem dedicated to making a really good game that genuinely represents a step-change in the genre. Given the amount of sub-par wank that comes out these days, that approach defo wins my money.









     




     

    Playing: Ableton Live 8
    ~ ragequitcancelsubdeletegamesmashcomputerkillself ~

  • RazeeksterRazeekster Solon, MEPosts: 2,201Member Uncommon

    Those of you talking about Guild Wars 2 vs. D3, I'm fairly sure Guild Wars 2 will win. From what I've seen people are by far much more excited for Guild Wars 2 then they are for D3.

    Smile

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by Razeekster

    Those of you talking about Guild Wars 2 vs. D3, I'm fairly sure Guild Wars 2 will win. From what I've seen people are by far much more excited for Guild Wars 2 then they are for D3.

    I think you really underestimate the number of people that both like the series and are also Blizz fans, I would ventiure to say when the dust settles GW2 won't come close to D3 in sales.

    image

  • EladiEladi ArnhemPosts: 1,100Member Uncommon

    i predict a huge sales at start 2 mill or so and then a huge cryout and drop , D3 is is hype only game, its not that good in reality, can compare it to Sw:tor hype and sales, all yay first month, then it will drop fast. 

  • gaeanprayergaeanprayer Somewhere Out There, PAPosts: 2,320Member Uncommon

    Don't know why people are talking about GW2, Rift, SWToR, etc., as if D3 was an MMO that could compete with MMOs. As popular as Diablo 2 was and still is, not even in its prime did it hurt the sale and sub numbers of the games of its time, like EQ. And that was before it became popular to hate Blizzard based on principle.

     

    But, kay. Whatever.

    "Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."

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