My server has a lot of people on it, most come to it, rerolling on it because their servers are empty...
They need to merge fast, it`s no secret they lose a lot of subs but they said they only need 500k anyway and 500k they have i`m sure of it.
So they need to merge the servers and do it fast before they lose whatever other people they have on the low population ones...
Don't be so sure it's a long-term 500K. When Warhammer came out it sold about 800K boxes right off the bat. The population peaked at 800K. Because of the intial excitement before realizing the game was bad, people ran out and bought long-term subscriptions either via credit car or game time code. Same with SWTOR. It's what people do.
Still, the one-month people quit like crazy. So while some more units were sold, the quitters far out-weighed the influx and the population dropped to 300k. A month later the subscriptions were still at 300K, after all, just because nobody isn't using the subscription doesn't mean it's not a subscription.
Then those subscriptions ended. And by June the population was at 150K. At the one-year anniversary, the population was 100K.
Now, here's the important point: People like me pointed all this out. And people who had no skills to understand that data, interpret the data but had an emotional investment in the game screamed and yelled, screamed and held thier breaths and told us all our mulitiple, independent sources of data telling us the same exact story -- crashing server populations -- was wrong.
They told us XFire trend analysis was wrong. They told us server status trends were wrong. They told us server population counts were wrong. They told us 'active guild member counts' were wrong. Even as the game died around them, it took months for them to admit it so strong was their denial. Then they screamed for server mergers and blamed the people who quit for 'trolling the game and making it fail.' Just like they're doing right now on the BioWare boards
I see the same thing with this game. And I see it, like Warhammer, going F2P. The trends are all bad. I mean, really bad. Especially the failed marketing campaign. TV, Internet, Print... The add are everywhere and the retail sales are in the toilet. They can't even stop the weekly decline in sales. There hasn't been one single week better than the prior since the game came out. A game that sold two million copies by the end of January will be lucky to have sold an additional 150,000 in February. Despite the marketing.
The BioWare fanboys have been harvested (not me). The Star Wars fanboys have been harvested (me). Huge swaths have left, probably to never return. All they have left are the 'MMO players' who, having read, or most likely heard, about how crappy the MMO features of this game are, aren't going to play it.
Where is the market for 500K constant-level subs at $15 a month? I don't see it. I think 200K to 300K is achievable if they fix a lot of the game. If they don't... Maybe it's Tabula Rosa time...
I've seen this before, the guy made a toon for both factions on each server and goes around to each planet or zone or whatever and takes a head count. It's accurate for the instant he does it in that zone but still leaves at LOT of room for speculation.
Without EA spilling the beans on subscriptions there's just no way to know anything for certain but the lack of any bragging from EA since that 1st month leaves a LOT of speculation going towards things are not going as planned, if they were they would be bragging.
I did something similar for a few days in a more generic sense. That said, sure his info isn't totally accurate but like what I monitored it can give you a good sense of what is going on. So I wouldn't discount the data by any means, Bardus.
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
I notice the servers peak about 9:30PM on most days Sunday are very crowded.
Were the SWG General Disscusions like SWTOR's al negative and such.
Just LoL at this ¨Population Data¨ when you have people log in and log out all the time info like this is just useless. I mean, people dont play 24/7 so in 2hs you can have like 1000 different players log in and log out from the game in a single server.
Were the SWG General Disscusions like SWTOR's al negative and such.
The official forums were. I don't know what the forums here were like until after the NGE.
SWG: You definitely had the people playing the game as one crowd and the people who played the forums were another crowd. In game for me at least was pretty pleasant... the forums were just as bad as for TOR.
At least that's what I remember.. someone else may have a different perception of things.
Bioware will have to merge servers sooner or later. But chances are they are going to wait till later until some servers really do hit critically low numbers. They won't do it this soon because it will look really bad all around for such a huge AAA MMO title to have to merge so soon. Those folks that subscribed for 30 days only had their time run out I think yesterday or today. Those that got the 60 day prepaid cards won't have their time run out till the beginning of the 3rd week of March.
So while I am sure the company is looking closely at population numbers and simultaneous log ins, I don't think they will act till anytime sooner than that. If they make an announcement of merges it most likely won't happen till the end of Spring with the actual merger happening till sometime during the summer at the earliest. Granted all MMOs do have some sort of decline especially during the 1st couple of months, but let's hope it isn't a nosedive. News travel much faster today than let's say 5-10 years ago, so they need that PR balancing act.
I'm pretty sure they were hoping not to have to merge before the 1st year is up, but things don't always go according to plan.
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
lol. Liberal arts stats? People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work. Sure, it counted as taking a stats course... But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.
That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors. Far more rigorous and demanding. And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote. We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.
No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
lol. Liberal arts stats? People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work. Sure, it counted as taking a stats course... But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.
That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors. Far more rigorous and demanding. And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote. We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.
No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.
People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology.
You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."
Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.
I tend to agree with the opinion that the subs are declining, that is based on x-fire, tor-status and mmo-junkies, and is supported by my personal view of the game. Played 60 bucks for poorly executed avarage mmo, that said to be "epic" omg best game. But i can't say that you have undisputed facts that the game is declining, and the real argument that beats all xfire-mmojunkies etc... quater report, that have shown 80% retention rate (Or something like that).
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
lol. Liberal arts stats? People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work. Sure, it counted as taking a stats course... But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.
That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors. Far more rigorous and demanding. And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote. We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.
No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.
People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology.
You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."
Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.
The biggest problem I see with this persons data collection, it that it is being done (suspiciously?) on the lowest played days of pretty much any MMO. This makes for the absolute worst looking data available. That alone is a little on the wonkie side. Add to that it is only data for three days out of a seven day week. Regardless of how you look at it, that weakens his arguement. Third, I have to agree with the first poster that the time is not, in my experience, peak playing hours by any means. Fourth, I see no comparisson being done to previous weeks for the last few months. Fifth, I see a huge problem with assuming that 6 planets and the fleet station represents 45% of the playing population. That totally ignores anyone that is traveling, engaging in Space Combat, playing a Flashpoint, playing an Operation, or playing a PvP Match. Oh and then Sixth, he is assuming that one server is representational of ALL the other servers. That alone is particularly stupid. Fif
Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information. I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night. Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years. AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread. He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless. Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics". Ouch!
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
I agree that this date collected only once, means absolutely nothing, but if this data collection is going to continue, you will see how population is doing in those areas at specific times at specific places, is it droping or growing.
I don't see how your friend mathmaticians have a point, i have math major as well, in fact I have 2 majors that are connected with mathematics, and I can say that the sample is big enough, and the conditions at which sample is taken are presistant, so this data is very viable if he continues to collect it for atleast 8+ weeks., 1 week is not enough definately... as well as 2 or three weeks, since there can be third party factors that can influence the population at given times.
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
lol. Liberal arts stats? People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work. Sure, it counted as taking a stats course... But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.
That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors. Far more rigorous and demanding. And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote. We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.
No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.
People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology.
You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."
Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.
How does this data showing a declining population when it is just one week? You are literally making no sense here.
These measurement were taken on the weekday (Monday-Tuesday-Wednesday) for one, which is incredibly laughable.
Also, the method of collection has no real ground to stand on. Peak hour for most servers is not 630 PM, so the servers measured at this time were likely 100-200+ people less than actual peak hour. I know on my server peak doesnt happen til about 1030-1100 PM. I think this is a reflection of the fact that the average player in this game is older (and more mature) than a game like WoW for example.
These numbers really show nothing, and for all we know the collector of data could be trying to match the numbers to fit with his agenda. You guys should really take a Stats or Political Science class. The accuracy of data like this is very commonly misconstrued.
lol. Liberal arts stats? People who took that couldn't pass the quantative methods test (quant-exam( needed to matriculate from lower-division (freshman/sophmore) to upper-division (junior/senior) course work. Sure, it counted as taking a stats course... But the material was so dumbed down that those that used stats from a social-sciences field ended with a huge performance penalty on the quant-exam.
That's why people like me took statistics for engineers and math majors. Far more rigorous and demanding. And had you done so, you wouldn't have written the post you wrote. We're dealing with large populations with scalable and predictible behaviors, and 6:30PM on MWF is as good a time as any AND as long as he's consistent with method, time and place of measurement his data will provide accurate trends.
No matter how much you want to live in denial and throw BS against the wall in the hopes some of it sticks.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.
People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology.
You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."
Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.
The biggest problem I see with this persons data collection, it that it is being done (suspiciously?) on the lowest played days of pretty much any MMO. This makes for the absolute worst looking data available. That alone is a little on the wonkie side. Add to that it is only data for three days out of a seven day week. Regardless of how you look at it, that weakens his arguement. Third, I have to agree with the first poster that the time is not, in my experience, peak playing hours by any means. Fourth, I see no comparisson being done to previous weeks for the last few months. Fifth, I see a huge problem with assuming that 6 planets and the fleet station represents 45% of the playing population. That totally ignores anyone that is traveling, engaging in Space Combat, playing a Flashpoint, playing an Operation, or playing a PvP Match. Oh and then Sixth, he is assuming that one server is representational of ALL the other servers. That alone is particularly stupid. Fif
Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information. I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night. Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years. AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread. He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless. Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics". Ouch!
Exactly. Underlined what people should read and get from this "data".
Can someone sum this up? I am too lazy for so many charts.
Yeah, it means that server merges are going to be incoming sooner rather than later.
I don't think there will be server mergers, not for a long time, because that would be an admission by EA that the game was haemmorhaging subscribers and EA can't afford to admit that.
Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information. I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night. Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years. AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread. He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless. Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics". Ouch!
This is going to shock you but... you having that friend is totally inconsequential. Unless your friend is willing to come into this thread and specify - in detail - WHY he laughed at the data collection methodology used, he may as well not exist. It is not a valid argument to say, "I know this guy who's qualified to do this stuff and he laughed so it must all be rubbish," unless that guy is willing to actually tell you why he laughed so that either you can, or he can, provide actually and credible feedback that we can swallow.
That in mind your entire refutal is drawn into question. It isn't credible and as such is easily dismissed. Until you're willing to specify you have very little weight in this debate.
Regarding the assertion that, "the data is collected from the three worst days of the week," I have this to say: strawman. Pure and simple. None of you have provided any data to weight your argument. You've just pulled a random "similar fact" out of the air and used it in an attempt to discredit the data collected and the information gleened from that data. If what you say is true, if those days are the weakest days, then prove it: use the same methodology to collect data on different days (or as valid methodology, at least), present it to us in the same way as the original data was presented and allow us to process it. The only reason I can think that you wouldn't do that is because you are either incapable of doing so (ergo you have no idea what you're talking about, which discredits you to the Nth degree) OR the data you've collected on the "best" days (as you claim) shows the same trend.
And regarding the, "it's not sustained data collection so it doesn't tell us anything," I can't really say anything. Sustained or not, it shows a trend that we can see based on the data collected. Whether it's sustained or not is neither here nor there. Having more data collected over a concerted period would, of course, strengthen the resulting information. I will appeal to the guy who collected the data to do another round of collection, which will put this little argument to bed.
There really isn't much else the detractors can say. The data is valid, the methodology is reasonable and the resutls speak for themselves. Combined with other data from Xfire, etc, as well as sales data, there is a clear indication that the population is shrinking. There's been no reasonable counterpoint made to disprove that, and the attempts to call into question the data collected have been weak and to no effect.
So feel free to provide reasonable counter arguments, or don't. That's the be all and end all of it.
They only do 6 planets and fleet so are missing other planets and people on personal ships, story zones, war zones, flashpoints and operations so anyone trying to use this data for anything is probably wasting their time.
The only people who know the population stats for servers is EA and they are not talking.
I've seen this before, the guy made a toon for both factions on each server and goes around to each planet or zone or whatever and takes a head count. It's accurate for the instant he does it in that zone but still leaves at LOT of room for speculation.
? Lol. Christ, are people slowly turning into idiots the past few years? Because looking at the trends of the past 10-15 years of internet, it sure seems as if the average IQ and education level on internet has been gradually dropping more and more since those early first internet years >.<
I took a quick glance at the guy's page, and it's indeed as you said, the guy only check a few planets; as a method this is just baffling. He should've used a full population head count based on class/level range, not something as flimsy and highly erratic as zone population.
-collected data is about selected zones within the game, not all zones
-45 % representation of the collected data is projecting a single servers total distribution on all other server. In short a single survey is assumed to be representative for all other servers estimations of total population.
-longspread (3.5 hours) timeframe for single surveys, diluting the results about alleged peak concurrency with results far outside of peaktimes. Timestamps may be available but are not considered.
Likely reasons for missinterpretation (i.e. considering them as concurency peaks)
-not exactly during daily peakhours of MMORPGs, 6:30 - 10:00 is atleast half an hour too early and yes thats significant with a +-5-15% errormargin pulling "peak numbers" down. And yes here torstatus.com is fine as its all about realtive hikes. And on torstatus peaks are at highest during 9:00-9:30 instead of the suggested ~8:15-8:30. So take it as "close to peakhours" not as "peakhours".
-again longspread (3.5 hours) timeframe for single surveys even reaching outside peaktimes. Peaktimes vs surveystart at 6:30 can be off by another missed 15-25%. The average results of about 2.5-3.0 hours before and 0.5-1 hour after is of course also lower than the plain peakhour itself. I doubt even one respects any of this. So take it as "almost peakhours" not as "peak".
-surveys are done during workdays from Monday till Wednesday, not at weekends. its common sense and knowledge weekdays populations of games are weaker on activity than weekends. Asking for proof of that, is like asking for proof that many would prefer chocolate over spelt bread. Its almost childish, to insist on evidence for that one. So take it as weekdays results not as peakresults.
-its a single time survey not about trends at all. You'd need atleast two points to start speculation about trends, now this is just one for each server. If you insist on argueing about "trends" you should atleast then name the at least the first datapoint you are based it on.
But I am shure our usual desperate and willfully ignorant doomsdaypreacher and hater will just hang themself up at "them numberz!", without even bothering to check out, nor understanding(but of course feigning great knowledge about statistics) what kind of "numberz" they are even looking at in first place, as long asthey can twist them to fit their agenda and will not just happily delude themself to feel "affirmed", but openly pretend and boast they where "proven right" "again" and spout these numbers far out of their context in future topics.
The hilarious part. Average population of PvE/RP was estimated at more than 900 per server at peaktime... which is about 60% (or potentially more) of the average of a certain overrated popular MMORPGs peaks (if we average the 6:30-10:00 result too for that game). Now do TORs surveys again with more tester at actual peaktimes and I am certain the average concurrency would likely be actually still "fine" or even better, even two weeks later.
I can see where you're coming from but at the same time all you're saying is your opinion of primetime is different then what you pointed out.While you may be closer to what I'd consider primetime,you've actually proven even more that the game is dropping like a brick I just tossed in a lake,unless you play during a specific 2:30-3:30 hr window!!
That is pretty lame if you ask me.I've read many many post's on their forums asking for merges or xfers,it's bad on many servers even during primetime.
Take a long look at the guys numbers and how a handful of servers look great,Then look at the numerous one's that are in the crapper.
Comments
Don't be so sure it's a long-term 500K. When Warhammer came out it sold about 800K boxes right off the bat. The population peaked at 800K. Because of the intial excitement before realizing the game was bad, people ran out and bought long-term subscriptions either via credit car or game time code. Same with SWTOR. It's what people do.
Still, the one-month people quit like crazy. So while some more units were sold, the quitters far out-weighed the influx and the population dropped to 300k. A month later the subscriptions were still at 300K, after all, just because nobody isn't using the subscription doesn't mean it's not a subscription.
Then those subscriptions ended. And by June the population was at 150K. At the one-year anniversary, the population was 100K.
Now, here's the important point: People like me pointed all this out. And people who had no skills to understand that data, interpret the data but had an emotional investment in the game screamed and yelled, screamed and held thier breaths and told us all our mulitiple, independent sources of data telling us the same exact story -- crashing server populations -- was wrong.
They told us XFire trend analysis was wrong. They told us server status trends were wrong. They told us server population counts were wrong. They told us 'active guild member counts' were wrong. Even as the game died around them, it took months for them to admit it so strong was their denial. Then they screamed for server mergers and blamed the people who quit for 'trolling the game and making it fail.' Just like they're doing right now on the BioWare boards
I see the same thing with this game. And I see it, like Warhammer, going F2P. The trends are all bad. I mean, really bad. Especially the failed marketing campaign. TV, Internet, Print... The add are everywhere and the retail sales are in the toilet. They can't even stop the weekly decline in sales. There hasn't been one single week better than the prior since the game came out. A game that sold two million copies by the end of January will be lucky to have sold an additional 150,000 in February. Despite the marketing.
The BioWare fanboys have been harvested (not me). The Star Wars fanboys have been harvested (me). Huge swaths have left, probably to never return. All they have left are the 'MMO players' who, having read, or most likely heard, about how crappy the MMO features of this game are, aren't going to play it.
Where is the market for 500K constant-level subs at $15 a month? I don't see it. I think 200K to 300K is achievable if they fix a lot of the game. If they don't... Maybe it's Tabula Rosa time...
I did something similar for a few days in a more generic sense. That said, sure his info isn't totally accurate but like what I monitored it can give you a good sense of what is going on. So I wouldn't discount the data by any means, Bardus.
I notice the servers peak about 9:30PM on most days Sunday are very crowded.
Were the SWG General Disscusions like SWTOR's al negative and such.
Ajax
Just LoL at this ¨Population Data¨ when you have people log in and log out all the time info like this is just useless. I mean, people dont play 24/7 so in 2hs you can have like 1000 different players log in and log out from the game in a single server.
You want real info about the population? http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats that is.
The official forums were. I don't know what the forums here were like until after the NGE.
SWG: You definitely had the people playing the game as one crowd and the people who played the forums were another crowd. In game for me at least was pretty pleasant... the forums were just as bad as for TOR.
At least that's what I remember.. someone else may have a different perception of things.
Bioware will have to merge servers sooner or later. But chances are they are going to wait till later until some servers really do hit critically low numbers. They won't do it this soon because it will look really bad all around for such a huge AAA MMO title to have to merge so soon. Those folks that subscribed for 30 days only had their time run out I think yesterday or today. Those that got the 60 day prepaid cards won't have their time run out till the beginning of the 3rd week of March.
So while I am sure the company is looking closely at population numbers and simultaneous log ins, I don't think they will act till anytime sooner than that. If they make an announcement of merges it most likely won't happen till the end of Spring with the actual merger happening till sometime during the summer at the earliest. Granted all MMOs do have some sort of decline especially during the 1st couple of months, but let's hope it isn't a nosedive. News travel much faster today than let's say 5-10 years ago, so they need that PR balancing act.
I'm pretty sure they were hoping not to have to merge before the 1st year is up, but things don't always go according to plan.
Yikes so much wrong with this post. It wasnt MWF it was MThFfor one. Second you dont have to take a more rigorous course to be aware of the fundamental problems with this kind of data collection from an untrusted third party source.
You don't have to take such a course to be aware of the inherent strengths of this kind of data collection either.
People like you really do baffle me. Every metric available to us suggests that the game's active population is declining, which invariably suggests that the number of active subscriptions is declining. There are no metrics available that tell us anything different. You can draw attention to the weaknesses inherent to those metrics, but it doesn't change the fact that they offer valuable and insiteful information supported by very reasonable and acceptable data collection methodology.
You can muddy the water all you want. It's a favoured tactic of those that have no counterpoint. It's best to discredit the testimony of the "other side" to the Nth degree, rather than offer your own data or information that suggests anything different to the above. You obviously have no meaninful counterpoint to make, so it's best to just blow hot air endlessly. And whilst those you detract have gone to great lengths to be as transparent as possible, you refuse to move beyond the vagueries of your argument because - when it comes down to it - you don't actually have a point beyond, "well regardless of what the data says, it may be wrong."
Yeah... it may be wrong. That's always a possibility. It's not a good foundation for an argument however, and It's not the death nail you seem to think it is.
I tend to agree with the opinion that the subs are declining, that is based on x-fire, tor-status and mmo-junkies, and is supported by my personal view of the game. Played 60 bucks for poorly executed avarage mmo, that said to be "epic" omg best game. But i can't say that you have undisputed facts that the game is declining, and the real argument that beats all xfire-mmojunkies etc... quater report, that have shown 80% retention rate (Or something like that).
The biggest problem I see with this persons data collection, it that it is being done (suspiciously?) on the lowest played days of pretty much any MMO. This makes for the absolute worst looking data available. That alone is a little on the wonkie side. Add to that it is only data for three days out of a seven day week. Regardless of how you look at it, that weakens his arguement. Third, I have to agree with the first poster that the time is not, in my experience, peak playing hours by any means. Fourth, I see no comparisson being done to previous weeks for the last few months. Fifth, I see a huge problem with assuming that 6 planets and the fleet station represents 45% of the playing population. That totally ignores anyone that is traveling, engaging in Space Combat, playing a Flashpoint, playing an Operation, or playing a PvP Match. Oh and then Sixth, he is assuming that one server is representational of ALL the other servers. That alone is particularly stupid. Fif
Keep in mind, I am not suggesting the population is not making a downward trend, but half baked data collection and figures based on it can supply only the worst possible information. I had an old friend of mine check out this thread last night. Math Major in college and currently working as a statistician for the last 20 years. AFTER he got done laughing at the original source pages methods, he then had a rather rousing time with most of the armchair mathematician supports in this thread. He then surprised me when he told me he plays the game as well and is seeing a drop in players, but the information gleaned from this "data" is so far off as to be useless. Even went so far as to call it "Politician Statistics". Ouch!
"If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"
I agree that this date collected only once, means absolutely nothing, but if this data collection is going to continue, you will see how population is doing in those areas at specific times at specific places, is it droping or growing.
I don't see how your friend mathmaticians have a point, i have math major as well, in fact I have 2 majors that are connected with mathematics, and I can say that the sample is big enough, and the conditions at which sample is taken are presistant, so this data is very viable if he continues to collect it for atleast 8+ weeks., 1 week is not enough definately... as well as 2 or three weeks, since there can be third party factors that can influence the population at given times.
Sorry for poor english.
How does this data showing a declining population when it is just one week? You are literally making no sense here.
Exactly. Underlined what people should read and get from this "data".
I don't think there will be server mergers, not for a long time, because that would be an admission by EA that the game was haemmorhaging subscribers and EA can't afford to admit that.
There is one universal truth for MMOs:
There are no miracle patches.
You can ruin an MMO with one rotten patch, but you can never save one with a good patch.
This is going to shock you but... you having that friend is totally inconsequential. Unless your friend is willing to come into this thread and specify - in detail - WHY he laughed at the data collection methodology used, he may as well not exist. It is not a valid argument to say, "I know this guy who's qualified to do this stuff and he laughed so it must all be rubbish," unless that guy is willing to actually tell you why he laughed so that either you can, or he can, provide actually and credible feedback that we can swallow.
That in mind your entire refutal is drawn into question. It isn't credible and as such is easily dismissed. Until you're willing to specify you have very little weight in this debate.
Regarding the assertion that, "the data is collected from the three worst days of the week," I have this to say: strawman. Pure and simple. None of you have provided any data to weight your argument. You've just pulled a random "similar fact" out of the air and used it in an attempt to discredit the data collected and the information gleened from that data. If what you say is true, if those days are the weakest days, then prove it: use the same methodology to collect data on different days (or as valid methodology, at least), present it to us in the same way as the original data was presented and allow us to process it. The only reason I can think that you wouldn't do that is because you are either incapable of doing so (ergo you have no idea what you're talking about, which discredits you to the Nth degree) OR the data you've collected on the "best" days (as you claim) shows the same trend.
And regarding the, "it's not sustained data collection so it doesn't tell us anything," I can't really say anything. Sustained or not, it shows a trend that we can see based on the data collected. Whether it's sustained or not is neither here nor there. Having more data collected over a concerted period would, of course, strengthen the resulting information. I will appeal to the guy who collected the data to do another round of collection, which will put this little argument to bed.
There really isn't much else the detractors can say. The data is valid, the methodology is reasonable and the resutls speak for themselves. Combined with other data from Xfire, etc, as well as sales data, there is a clear indication that the population is shrinking. There's been no reasonable counterpoint made to disprove that, and the attempts to call into question the data collected have been weak and to no effect.
So feel free to provide reasonable counter arguments, or don't. That's the be all and end all of it.
They only do 6 planets and fleet so are missing other planets and people on personal ships, story zones, war zones, flashpoints and operations so anyone trying to use this data for anything is probably wasting their time.
The only people who know the population stats for servers is EA and they are not talking.
? Lol. Christ, are people slowly turning into idiots the past few years? Because looking at the trends of the past 10-15 years of internet, it sure seems as if the average IQ and education level on internet has been gradually dropping more and more since those early first internet years >.<
I took a quick glance at the guy's page, and it's indeed as you said, the guy only check a few planets; as a method this is just baffling. He should've used a full population head count based on class/level range, not something as flimsy and highly erratic as zone population.I can see where you're coming from but at the same time all you're saying is your opinion of primetime is different then what you pointed out.While you may be closer to what I'd consider primetime,you've actually proven even more that the game is dropping like a brick I just tossed in a lake,unless you play during a specific 2:30-3:30 hr window!!
That is pretty lame if you ask me.I've read many many post's on their forums asking for merges or xfers,it's bad on many servers even during primetime.
Take a long look at the guys numbers and how a handful of servers look great,Then look at the numerous one's that are in the crapper.
It isn't rocket science.