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MMO DATA: Is this info reputable?

TorvanusTorvanus edmonton, ABPosts: 17Member

http://www.mmodata.net/ 

Shows quit a drop for Swtor.

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Comments

  • noncleynoncley LondonPosts: 647Member Uncommon

    Everybody knows that subs for SWTOR are plummeting - except the marketing boys at EA can't admit that because it would mean the stock price would fall

  • Cod_EyeCod_Eye jarrowPosts: 1,016Member

    I think the drop was expected, players have already reported a drop in players during peak times.  Not as bad as I expected though.

  • SkymourneSkymourne Ruston, LAPosts: 366Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Torvanus

    http://www.mmodata.net/ 

    Shows quit a drop for Swtor.

    I can't honestly say because there really is no way to confirm or deny, but each of those charts looks suspiciously accurate.  If that is the case, i'm honestly not surprised.

    There are still quite a few folks that like it, so be careful.  This thread may get blown to hell pretty soon by Lancelots.

  • ExcessionExcession NottinghamPosts: 367Member Uncommon

    Just to answer the question asked:


    Disclaimer

    Dispite being carefull and doing the necessary research, MMOData.net cannot guarantee the validity of the information found here as it is based on various sources which could be incomplete, inaccurate or otherwise unreliable. Furthermore, all estimates are the opinion of MMOData.net and should be treated as such.

    A creative person is motivated by the desire to achieve, not the desire to beat others.

  • TorvanusTorvanus edmonton, ABPosts: 17Member

    I like the game quit a bit other than post level 50. I think they will offer previous subs a free week after update 1.2 to come and try it out.

    And thxs for the answers people. :)

  • DredphyreDredphyre Los Angeles, CAPosts: 601Member

    If you dig a bit deeper on the site, he give SWTOR an A rating as far as reliability of data. This rating is the same he gives to EVE, which I'm quite sure CCP gives him their numbers directly.

    In any event, his accuracy rating for SWTOR, within the context of his own system, is as accurate as he can be. Compare this to the C rating of most Turbine games, which means he doesn't have a solid sense of the numbers.

  • ArawulfArawulf Guest Writer Freeland, MIPosts: 520Member

    Subscription info, per se, is becoming increasinly irellevent with the rise of non-sub games.  The popularity of the genre is increasing however the sub based model is plummeting fast. SWTOR is following the same pattern as nearly every other sub based mmo.

    image

  • troublmakertroublmaker St. George''s, NFPosts: 337Member

    Apparently Rift is sub-250,000 subscribers and plumeting.

    The SWTOR numbers sounds fine.  1.3M peak subscribers sounds about right.  There may be more subs, maybe another 200,000 but they're very casual.  I myself play SWTOR 2 days a week total for 4 hours each session.  I only raid.  So if there are another 300,000 like me then that number can easily be brought up to 2M again.  Because it only tracks peak hour numbers (or tries to) it can't be terribly accurate.

    Another point of contention is Age of Conan vs Warhammer Online.  As far as I remember AoC outsold WAR.  But this website shows quite the opposite.

    Website: http://www.thegameguru.me / YouTube:

  • KholeKhole Irmo, SCPosts: 136Member Common

    Originally posted by Arawulf

    Subscription info, per se, is becoming increasinly irellevent with the rise of non-sub games.  The popularity of the genre is increasing however the sub based model is plummeting fast. SWTOR is following the same pattern as nearly every other sub based mmo.

    P2P is so 2005 companies need to get away from that model asap.

  • IsawaIsawa Middle 0 Nowhere, ORPosts: 1,051Member

    Originally posted by noncley

    Everybody knows that subs for SWTOR are plummeting - except the marketing boys at EA can't admit that because it would mean the stock price would fall

    Umm have you actually taken a second to look at the stock? It has been falling...

    https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:EA

  • MMOarQQMMOarQQ BoogalululuPosts: 636Member

    ...and the 3 month subs aren't even up yet.

    Still, I'd like to see the numbers past the 6 month mark to get a solid idea of where it's headed.

  • ArawulfArawulf Guest Writer Freeland, MIPosts: 520Member

    Originally posted by eluldor

    Originally posted by noncley

    Everybody knows that subs for SWTOR are plummeting - except the marketing boys at EA can't admit that because it would mean the stock price would fall

    Umm have you actually taken a second to look at the stock? It has been falling...

    https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:EA

    Every analyst I read says the stock is going to change considering their financial stability.  EA doesn't have all it's chickens in the SWTOR basket.  I'd be more concerned about the future of SWOTR than the future of EA - the company will be fine. The game? Only time will tell - this summit thing may be a step in the right direction depending on whether or not it's actually a 2-way dialogue or a one way PR stunt.

    image

  • William12William12 Saint paul, MNPosts: 680Member

    Originally posted by eluldor

    Originally posted by noncley

    Everybody knows that subs for SWTOR are plummeting - except the marketing boys at EA can't admit that because it would mean the stock price would fall

    Umm have you actually taken a second to look at the stock? It has been falling...

    https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:EA

    lol this site is awesome now all the people here will try and give stock advice saying EA is going down because swtor is failing lol.   Just like every stock EA goes up goes down goes up goes down its the nature of the stock market.

    Id say the EA stock has more to do with mass effect 3 preorders barely reaching 1 mil.   Dont worry come August when madden sells 10 million copies and EA stock goes up ill say its because of swtor lol.

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member

    Well, the only description of their methods is on the accuracy and abbreviations page. They appear to be pretty honest about their data sources.

     

    Their claim is this:

     

    "A rating – Most or all of the datapoints come from official or other reliable sources and are in line with other numbers and information.


    B rating – Part of the datapoints come from official or other reliable sources and part of the datapoints come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information.

    C rating – Some of the datapoints may come from official or other reliable sources, many of the datapoints come from estimates, third party sources, unclear official sources or other indirect information."

     

     

     

    The bad news is that SWTOR hasn't been given a rating yet on that page.  Perhaps they haven't gotten around to it yet? It might just be to early in the games life for them to do that.

     

    Sounds like a lot of estimation might be going on there, however, it's not exactly brain surgery is it? Not too hard to be fairly accurate at estimations with a high success rate.  

     

    It's interesting that the graph peaks at 1.7 million. As that is the only official number we have received from EA, I imagine they are getting their numbers from sources like the people that are doing manual server counts, possibly xfire,  as well as general speculation that the population is declining (which it probably is).

     

     

    It may very well be accurate, but they don't even really say what their sources are. I like that they rate each game independently and are at least honest about how good their methods are for that game, but I imagine that their SWTOR data would fall under the "B" rating.  The official sources they have are the earnings call.

     

    It's not that I would say this information is unreliable, but outside of the 1.7 million number, I wouldn't say it's any more accurate than the other unofficial sources we already have (manual counts, server status checks, xfire, casual observation).

     

    Even casual observation can tell you that this game is losing subs, but I wouldn't put too terribly much faith in the exact number that is being reported.  

     

    So far, all measurement of the decline from these sources has been from measuring player activity on servers. All of the non-official numbers are a measurement of how many people are playing at any given time.

     

    It should be obvious that this drop in players doesn't necessarily mean a drop in subs.  

     

    As an entirely anecdotal example: the majority of my guild right now is enjoying the raiding content a lot. Most of them are not pvp players (some of us are) and many of them only log in on our raid days. That is only 3 days a week. They enjoy the game, but we are a pretty casual group. Most of us have jobs and families.  When we were leveling, we were all playing 5-7 days a week. 

     

    My point is this: Say that you applied these methods (xfire, manual counts, server status, etc) to my guild to see how many people unsubbed from the game. You would see a more than 50% drop in player activity.  However, if the question is how many of us have unsubbed since launch, the answer is very few. 

     

    Now, before someone jumps all over me, I am not denying the decline in population or a loss of subs for the game. What I am saying is that measuring player activity cannot give you exact numbers of how big that decline really is. Not only are people unsubbed from the game, but people who are subbed could be playing less as well.  Those people whose play habits have significantly changed could appear to be people who unsubbed when measuring like this. 

     

    Basically, the data shows a decline. There is a decline in subscriptions. This kind of data indicates that, as well as casual observation. The amount, I believe, is probably less than all of these measurements are showing.  Who knows, it could be more or exactly right. I just tend to believe that this data is slightly off.

     

    Oh, and like I said, this isn't new data. This is a combination of all of the data we already have available that someone is tacking a number to. Estimating this kind of thing isn't exactly difficult though, so they are probably fairly close. 

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  • IsawaIsawa Middle 0 Nowhere, ORPosts: 1,051Member

    Originally posted by William12

    Originally posted by eluldor


    Originally posted by noncley

    Everybody knows that subs for SWTOR are plummeting - except the marketing boys at EA can't admit that because it would mean the stock price would fall

    Umm have you actually taken a second to look at the stock? It has been falling...

    https://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:EA

    lol this site is awesome now all the people here will try and give stock advice saying EA is going down because swtor is failing lol.   Just like every stock EA goes up goes down goes up goes down its the nature of the stock market.

    Id say the EA stock has more to do with mass effect 3 preorders barely reaching 1 mil.   Dont worry come August when madden sells 10 million copies and EA stock goes up ill say its because of swtor lol.

    hahaha...Well, I was just pointing out that the stock had been in an overall decline (reached its peak in years in Nov). There is some rise at the SWTOR release, but the original statement I quote doesn't mean much when applied.

  • evictonevicton Warren, PAPosts: 398Member

    Looking at their charts I wanna know how wow east takes like a 5 million sub dive between 2009-2010 and Wow global shows no sign, did everyone but 1 million people in asia switch to wow west for a few months?  Tors numbers look about right. How does warhammer have as many subs as everquest, i know its old but its still better then warhammer.

  • bartoni33bartoni33 Southern IllinoisPosts: 1,080Member Uncommon

    Of course it's reputable! It's showing a decline silly! We all know that TOR has a negative player base now! It's just bots and a few Chineese political prisoners playing now! Everyone left the SS Tortanic a week before the first Beta began! Gosh! Why even ask?

    Torfailtic!

    Biofail!!

    Faildrone!!!

    Also EA just sold all their stocks for a bus ticket out of Austin! TOR is now owned by Bain Capital!

    image

  • nyxiumnyxium ManchesterPosts: 1,220Member Uncommon

    I don't think the quit rate or caution to stay away from SWTOR has anyting to do with the game really, but the austerity in the real world economy is pretty bad and mad and other things ending in 'ad' like, er, dead? Anyway austerity is playing its part all over the world and economy's are shrinking. That is not only an opinion, that is not just information, that is fact. And it will have a knock on effect on sub based business models.

    image
  • huntersamhuntersam OckleyPosts: 152Member

    i believe the big drop in wow-east was because china stopped allowing wow due to some licencing issue or something .Could be totally wrong but i do remeber reasding something about it

    image

  • MosesZDMosesZD Kirkwood, MOPosts: 1,383Member

    Originally posted by Torvanus

    http://www.mmodata.net/ 

    Shows quit a drop for Swtor.

     

    He is very dedicated to accurate results and only takes numbers from verifiable public sources, like financial statements.   Nothing is made up.  And, if he makes an error, he corrects it and explains it.

  • MosesZDMosesZD Kirkwood, MOPosts: 1,383Member

    Originally posted by huntersam

    i believe the big drop in wow-east was because china stopped allowing wow due to some licencing issue or something .Could be totally wrong but i do remeber reasding something about it

     

    There was some change in servicers or some such...   I don't remember the exact details, but that temporary drop was correct.

  • MosesZDMosesZD Kirkwood, MOPosts: 1,383Member

    Originally posted by bartoni33

    Of course it's reputable! It's showing a decline silly! We all know that TOR has a negative player base now! It's just bots and a few Chineese political prisoners playing now! Everyone left the SS Tortanic a week before the first Beta began! Gosh! Why even ask?

    Torfailtic!

    Biofail!!

    Faildrone!!!

    Also EA just sold all their stocks for a bus ticket out of Austin! TOR is now owned by Bain Capital!

     

    Despite this laughable attempt at sarcasm, the number is right.   He got it from EA.    He doesn't make these numbers up.  They all come straight from the developer's mouth.

  • itgrowlsitgrowls newport news, VAPosts: 2,951Member

    Originally posted by Khole

    Originally posted by Arawulf

    Subscription info, per se, is becoming increasinly irellevent with the rise of non-sub games.  The popularity of the genre is increasing however the sub based model is plummeting fast. SWTOR is following the same pattern as nearly every other sub based mmo.

    P2P is so 2005 companies need to get away from that model asap.

    image

    how many companies have stirred the myth that companies only go F2P when their sub only system fails to keep the revenue coming in?Too many to count.

  • RefMinorRefMinor MyTownPosts: 3,452Member
    Originally posted by bartoni33

    Of course it's reputable! It's showing a decline silly! We all know that TOR has a negative player base now! It's just bots and a few Chineese political prisoners playing now! Everyone left the SS Tortanic a week before the first Beta began! Gosh! Why even ask?
    Torfailtic!
    Biofail!!
    Faildrone!!!
    Also EA just sold all their stocks for a bus ticket out of Austin! TOR is now owned by Bain Capital!

     

    I have seen this post somewhere before, oh your last one.
  • MosesZDMosesZD Kirkwood, MOPosts: 1,383Member

    Originally posted by biggarfoot

    I think the drop was expected, players have already reported a drop in players during peak times.  Not as bad as I expected though.

     

    Subs aren't active players.   Take WarHammer for example:

     

    Month 1:  800K  units sold.   Plus a bunch of 60-day time cards.   800K subs.

    Month 2:  300K subs.

    Month 3: 300k subs.

    Month 4: 150k subs.

     

    This game is no different for two reasons:   First, lots of people were optimistic and bought 60-day time cards before they even played it.    Second, if you didn't have a credit card, you had to use a 60-day card to activate your account.   Sure, it came with a 30-day subscription, but EA/BioWare didn't let you actually activate it without a time-card or credit-card.

     

    It will take until June to determine a solid view of the active player base.

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