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Predictions on TORs subs a year out

13468911

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  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

     ...with an 80% retention rate two months out is a failure?

    Wtf? Someone is actually still running around touting this? Are you insane bro or simply this blinded?

    Do you have proof stating otherwise? Preferably from EA or Bioware and not yourself.

     

    Why not? 1.5 Million subs still gives them a 75% retention rate. There has yet to be a trail period also.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • TealaTeala SomewherePosts: 7,430Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Mephster

    They said in their recent advertisment that TOR is the fastest growing mmo but soon they will be the fastest at losing subs. It is real a shame because I love Star Wars but hey this is what Bioware wanted to do. The emphasis on story, voice over  and basic mmo combat failed. 

    2 million copies sold with an 80% retention rate two months out is a failure?

     

    Where in the hell where all you people when RIFT was losing subs?

    There is now way in hell they retained 80%, no way, but you can keep believing that BS if you like.  As for Rift, it took it nearly 4 months to drop as far as SWTOR has dropped in 2.  I know...because I keep records.  

    image
  • RaysheRayshe London, ONPosts: 1,284Member

    launches are bad, all launches lose players. stop trying to claim your the exception. this drives me NUTS, seriously everyone thinks that a bad launch kills the game period end of story, or that their game is a magic exception when they are very wrong. SWTOR still has time to turn things around. Depending on the launches of the next 5 titles SWTOR will have choices. for now they need to solidify their game.

     

    however Claiming that your game is untouchable from whats coming out is very VERY ignorant. SWTOR will NOT walk out unskathed, Best case Scenario 100k-400k lost, Worst case Scenario 900k-1mil lost. and these are just estimates,  if they get the best case scenario then they can hold steady with what they are doing. if they get worst case scenario they better start looking at B2P 

    Because i can.
    I'm Hopeful For Every Game, Until the Fan Boys Attack My Games. Then the Knives Come Out.
    Logic every gamers worst enemy.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Vaultar

    My personal opinion is <500k just because I can't see it being suistainable in long-term simply for the fact that it just focuses too much on story while not giving attention to parts that give it the definition of MMOrpg. I am sure pvp will improve and more content will be added during the coming months but severe damage has already been done to the title in its initial stage. On top of it all, we still see generic gameplay mechanics and the game reportedly missing basic social functions.

    Now if you take into account probably by far the biggest factor, where we have titles like GW2, Tera and The Secret World maybe even Archeage?) being out within the next year, with each offering something unique to the genre, even if SWTOR gets an overhaul it really needs to compete, it will just be too late by that time. I doubt even expansions will save the game.

    I am just being a realist.

    My counter argument to this is that none of those games offer what is in reality on of the biggest draws for SWTOR, it being SWTOR by Bioware.

     

    Look how poor SWG was from a subjective POV, the only things to really do in it was Crafter or space combat.

     

    Sure they might lose all the people looking for something new (assuming they havn't already left), but how many people want an MMO by Bioware, or a Star Wars MMO?

    Are you kidding me SWG was 10x better then this pile of garbage, the PvP alone was better then this whole game

    Besides what were you 10 when SWG came out please stop speaking out of your ass you are really failing hard.

    image

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Teala

    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Mephster

    They said in their recent advertisment that TOR is the fastest growing mmo but soon they will be the fastest at losing subs. It is real a shame because I love Star Wars but hey this is what Bioware wanted to do. The emphasis on story, voice over  and basic mmo combat failed. 

    2 million copies sold with an 80% retention rate two months out is a failure?

     

    Where in the hell where all you people when RIFT was losing subs?

    There is now way in hell they retained 80%, no way, but you can keep believing that BS if you like.  As for Rift, it took it nearly 4 months to drop as far as SWTOR has dropped in 2.  I know...because I keep records.  

    Mind showing me?

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • TealaTeala SomewherePosts: 7,430Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Teala


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Mephster

    They said in their recent advertisment that TOR is the fastest growing mmo but soon they will be the fastest at losing subs. It is real a shame because I love Star Wars but hey this is what Bioware wanted to do. The emphasis on story, voice over  and basic mmo combat failed. 

    2 million copies sold with an 80% retention rate two months out is a failure?

     

    Where in the hell where all you people when RIFT was losing subs?

    There is now way in hell they retained 80%, no way, but you can keep believing that BS if you like.  As for Rift, it took it nearly 4 months to drop as far as SWTOR has dropped in 2.  I know...because I keep records.  

    Mind showing me?

    Why, I use xfire, you do not think xfire if viable - I do though and no I will not show you.  You or someone like you will just excuse it away and say, you use xfire so it has no value.  ::shrugs::   So no...I'll not waste my time...showing you anything.

    image
  • NaughtyPNaughtyP Edmonton, ABPosts: 793Member

    My guess is 400k. I know I know, too low, I'm evil, I must have stocks in ArenaNet, blah blah blah.

    But with all the AAA MMOs (not to mentione all the AAA single player games coming out), and SWTOR fighting an uphill battle right now to plug some of the holes on the boat, I think it will shrink pretty fast.

    Enter a whole new realm of challenge and adventure.

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Do you have proof stating otherwise? Preferably from EA or Bioware and not yourself.

     

    Why not? 1.5 Million subs still gives them a 75% retention rate. There has yet to be a trail period also.

    First of all the only ones that came out with a retention rate percentage...ever...were wackos on forums.

    Secondly, if they had an 80% retention rate not only would BW be singing from the rafters about it but so would every media outlet that covered business news in any shape or form that also covered game companies because that is simply unheard of. Not to mention game sites in general.

    You guys came up with that magical 80% all on your own with your magical mathematics and ridiculous assumptions as to how many of the 1.7 were subbed.

    ...and even then that was goofballs stating it from the time of the conference call which has no bearing whatsoever even in Candyland as to where the retention rate stands now.

     

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • ComfyChairComfyChair BirminghamPosts: 758Member

    I remember there's a server tracker somwhere that shows concurrent players (which obviously plummeted over the course of the first month, but that's to be expected, people play like crazy for the first few days), but that doesn't state people 'still subscribed' at all. I mean, i stopped playing ages ago but i'll have only been unsubcribed last week or so.

    I don't think there's any way to say how many people are still playing ToR. All i know is that no-one ever seemed to be playing in Europe :/ Seeing Hoth with 5 players at 6PM GMT was the final straw for me.

    Also, Teala, xfire is kind of useless XD

  • FratmanFratman Bumpkinville, WYPosts: 344Member

    Christ, it feels like TOR has been out for about 5 years already. The game is old and predictable. I don't even play it and I can probably tell you what the upcoming patch notes say. Bioware is trying so hard to copy what Blizzard does and they're failing so, so bad. It's actually sad to watch.

    A year from now there will be around 600k subscribers. Biodrones will be copying and pasting some quote from Bioware that says the game is profitable at 500k subs as proof TOR is a smashing success. Titan will come out a year later and TOR will start merging servers and transition into F2P. Next we will hear rumors about a Mass Effect mmo and how Bioware can't mess it up because it's their own IP and they learned from TOR what not to do, blah, blah, blah.  Meanwhile, no one will care anyway because the themeparkers will be too busy playing Titan, and the rest of us will be in Archeage or World of Darkness.

     

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Do you have proof stating otherwise? Preferably from EA or Bioware and not yourself.

     

    Why not? 1.5 Million subs still gives them a 75% retention rate. There has yet to be a trail period also.

    First of all the only ones that came out with a retention rate percentage...ever...were wackos on forums.

    Secondly, if they had an 80% retention rate not only would BW be singing from the rafters about it but so would every media outlet that covered business news in any shape or form that also covered game companies because that is simply unheard of. Not to mention game sites in general.

    You guys came up with that magical 80% all on your own with your magical mathematics and ridiculous assumptions as to how many of the 1.7 were subbed.

    ...and even then that was goofballs stating it from the time of the conference call which has no bearing whatsoever even in Candyland as to where the retention rate stands now.

     

    I asked for proof, here is MMODATA.net a third party tracker thingy.

    http://mmodata.net/

     

    Pretty non-bais.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • VaultarVaultar adelaidePosts: 339Member


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Vaultar

    My personal opinion is <500k just because I can't see it being suistainable in long-term simply for the fact that it just focuses too much on story while not giving attention to parts that give it the definition of MMOrpg. I am sure pvp will improve and more content will be added during the coming months but severe damage has already been done to the title in its initial stage. On top of it all, we still see generic gameplay mechanics and the game reportedly missing basic social functions.

    Now if you take into account probably by far the biggest factor, where we have titles like GW2, Tera and The Secret World maybe even Archeage?) being out within the next year, with each offering something unique to the genre, even if SWTOR gets an overhaul it really needs to compete, it will just be too late by that time. I doubt even expansions will save the game.

    I am just being a realist.

    My counter argument to this is that none of those games offer what is in reality on of the biggest draws for SWTOR, it being SWTOR by Bioware.

     

    Look how poor SWG was from a subjective POV, the only things to really do in it was Crafter or space combat.

     

    Sure they might lose all the people looking for something new (assuming they havn't already left), but how many people want an MMO by Bioware, or a Star Wars MMO?

    Yes that is true. However, even given THAT fact, we see ppl complaining saying "what do I do after reaching 50?" or "The world is generic and lifeless" or "so much cinematics i skip thru them. Spacebar is my favourite feature in game (sorry couldnt resist that last part :P)" or "its not really MMO. I feel like im playing single player with social hubs attached" or "PvP is lacking and exploitable" or "These issues havent been fixed since the time I reported them back during beta" ..and the list continues.

    It is really testing out and shaking Bioware foundations in the mmorpg world. People are beginning to realise that it is just not enough to have Star Wars and Bioware in the same line when the game is having problems in dozens of areas.

    IMHO, only the most hardcore Star Wars fans will stay in game.

     

    Looking forward to EQL and EQN.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    So lets look at this from a completely objective point of veiw, we have one camp that says we have 1.7 million players and we have camp two that says no way.

    So where can we go to sorta confirm this hummm lets check the server status on Prime Time Sunday night, so we did and there was get ready Johnny one full server, while 1 month ago there were 15-20, there was not one single very heavy and 19 heavy. In the mean time behind door number two there were 20 light hummmmmm what can we deduce from all this????

    Anyone in the audience care to guess, yes you sir with the Star Wars shirt, The game is growing I mean it does not matter that the servers are showing less people everyday because EA/Bioware told me we have 1.7 million poeple playing!!!

    Well there you have it folks nope the game is growing because EA/Bioware have said so, please don't believe the official server status because it is broken atm and not showing very full servers.....................

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  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Vaultar


    Originally posted by Snaylor47


    Originally posted by Vaultar

    My personal opinion is <500k just because I can't see it being suistainable in long-term simply for the fact that it just focuses too much on story while not giving attention to parts that give it the definition of MMOrpg. I am sure pvp will improve and more content will be added during the coming months but severe damage has already been done to the title in its initial stage. On top of it all, we still see generic gameplay mechanics and the game reportedly missing basic social functions.

    Now if you take into account probably by far the biggest factor, where we have titles like GW2, Tera and The Secret World maybe even Archeage?) being out within the next year, with each offering something unique to the genre, even if SWTOR gets an overhaul it really needs to compete, it will just be too late by that time. I doubt even expansions will save the game.

    I am just being a realist.

    My counter argument to this is that none of those games offer what is in reality on of the biggest draws for SWTOR, it being SWTOR by Bioware.

     

    Look how poor SWG was from a subjective POV, the only things to really do in it was Crafter or space combat.

     

    Sure they might lose all the people looking for something new (assuming they havn't already left), but how many people want an MMO by Bioware, or a Star Wars MMO?

    Yes that is true. However, even given THAT fact, we see ppl complaining saying "what do I do after reaching 50?" or "The world is generic and lifeless" or "so much cinematics i skip thru them. Spacebar is my favourite feature in game (sorry couldnt resist that last part :P)" or "its not really MMO. I feel like im playing single player with social hubs attached" or "PvP is lacking and exploitable" or "These issues havent been fixed since the time I reported them back during beta" ..and the list continues.

    It is really testing out and shaking Bioware foundations in the mmorpg world. People are beginning to realise that it is just not enough to have Star Wars and Bioware in the same line when the game is having problems in dozens of areas.

    IMHO, only the most hardcore Star Wars fans will stay in game.

     

    Theres plenty to do at end game, Granted its more of the same but that doesn't take away from the fact thats its still there. http://www.swtor.com/community/showthread.php?t=225858, I'm on jedi convanat and spend 90% of my time talkin on /1 and Do not hear any major complaining and I find thta the complaining on the forum is inconsistant with the complaining in the actually game (If you where around doing WAR's launch you'd see what I mean). 

     

    I actually have to yell at people to hit spacebar during cinimatics.

     

    I am honestly not trying to sound fanboish here but I just don't see these things outside of the TOR Gen forums or here.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VascyLfpNrI (Play it) Im sorry Im not seeing any of this, and I am by no means saying that this game is going to have millions of subs tomorrow. But to say that this game will have less then 400k subs is redonculus RIFT still has about 300k subs, SWG managed 300k subs pre-NGE (AKA When the game was slightly more playable.). With the SW IP and Bioware being a rather competant developer I see no reason how this game can't get at least 800k subs, I fail to how that is a failure.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    I asked for proof, here is MMODATA.net a third party tracker thingy.

    http://mmodata.net/

     

    Pretty non-bais.

    Oh yeah, you mean another quack that assumes the 1.7 million are actual paying subbed people even though this statement was made:

    SWTOR has 1.7 million active subscribers. "The majority of these subscribers are paying customers already." Eric Brown 

    Which leaves it up in the air yet magically, somehow, those with the 80% retention rate knew exactly how many were and compared it to the overall sales to get their figure.

    Not to mention your own site says it appears to be "going downward". I guess to you that means they dropped to 79% then...eh?

     

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    I asked for proof, here is MMODATA.net a third party tracker thingy.

    http://mmodata.net/

     

    Pretty non-bais.

    Oh yeah, you mean another quack that assumes the 1.7 million are actual subbed people even though this statement was made:

    SWTOR has 1.7 million active subscribers. "The majority of these subscribers are paying customers already." Eric Brown 

    Which leaves it up in the air yet magically, somehow, those with the 80% retention rate knew exactly how many were and compared it to the overall sales to get their figure.

    Not to mention your own site says it appears to be "going downward". I guess to you that means they dropped to 79% then...eh?

     

    How many subs do then have then? Numbers to back said claim up would be nice.

     

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • RobokappRobokapp Dublin, OHPosts: 5,205Member Uncommon

    2 billion.

    image

  • TealaTeala SomewherePosts: 7,430Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly


    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    I asked for proof, here is MMODATA.net a third party tracker thingy.

    http://mmodata.net/

     

    Pretty non-bais.

    Oh yeah, you mean another quack that assumes the 1.7 million are actual subbed people even though this statement was made:

    SWTOR has 1.7 million active subscribers. "The majority of these subscribers are paying customers already." Eric Brown 

    Which leaves it up in the air yet magically, somehow, those with the 80% retention rate knew exactly how many were and compared it to the overall sales to get their figure.

    Not to mention your own site says it appears to be "going downward". I guess to you that means they dropped to 79% then...eh?

     

    How many subs do then have then? Numbers to back said claim up would be nice.

     

    Want me to give you my best guestiment??

    image
  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    How many subs do then have then? Numbers to back said claim up would be nice.

     

    I don't know. Unlike some around here I don't pull percentages and numbers out of my behind. What's your point anyways? Your own site didn't say either so...

    Yeah, feel free to think it still has an 80% retention rate. By all means...

    I can only attest to what I have seen in game and the overall sentiment I get from those playing or have played. It doesn't bode well. Not doom and gloom but nothing like it appears some of you want to see either.

    I have no idea how you guys can think you have your pulse on this game and honestly feel it is growing or retaining players at an 80% rate.

     

     

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    How many subs do then have then? Numbers to back said claim up would be nice.

     

     

    I have no idea how you guys can think you have your pulse on this game and honestly feel it is growing or retaining players at an 80% rate.

     

     

    You see this is were you are wrong about me I think this game is losing subs no doubt.

     

    You seem to think they are losing them willy nilly, I am showing you evidance that shows otherwise.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    March 20th is the date to watch, the fall of started in the beginning of Feb whether you want to believe that or not, but those people like me  were probably subbed at least until Feb 20th and the ones just recently leaving until March.

    image

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

     

    You seem to think they are losing them willy nilly, I am showing you evidance that shows otherwise.

    Dude, that evidence shows nothing except what we all already know. Feel free to check my post hstory to see if I ever questioned the 1.7 million statement. I never have.

    What I question is the magical retention rate percentage that posters came up with on their own and was never said by Bioware. Because it is simply ridiculous and they had no set number to base it off of. Pure assumption and conjecture.

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • DreadbladeDreadblade Phila, PAPosts: 384Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

     

    You seem to think they are losing them willy nilly, I am showing you evidance that shows otherwise.

    Dude, that evidence shows nothing except what we all already know. Feel free to check my post hstory to see if I ever questioned the 1.7 million statement. I never have.

    What I question is the magical retention rate percentage that posters came up with on their own and was never said by Bioware. Because it is simply ridiculous and they had no set number to base it off of. Pure assumption and conjecture.

    This is the whole point of contention here, no one here has ever said that they did not have 1.7 million, what we are saying is that there is no way there are now 1.7 million playing. The server loads do not reflect this in any way shape or form, people are bailing quick and as more hit 50 the more that will leave.

    image

  • Snaylor47Snaylor47 Des Moines, IAPosts: 962Member

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

     

    You seem to think they are losing them willy nilly, I am showing you evidance that shows otherwise.

    Dude, that evidence shows nothing except what we all already know. Feel free to check my post hstory to see if I ever questioned the 1.7 million statement. I never have.

    What I question is the magical retention rate percentage that posters came up with on their own and was never said by Bioware. Because it is simply ridiculous and they had no set number to base it off of. Pure assumption and conjecture.

    According to VG Charts the game sold  2.1 million copies.

     

    Unless you want a 100% exact estiment.

    I don't care about innovation I care about fun.

  • channel84channel84 CyberjayaPosts: 585Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly


    Originally posted by Snaylor47

    How many subs do then have then? Numbers to back said claim up would be nice.

     

     

    I have no idea how you guys can think you have your pulse on this game and honestly feel it is growing or retaining players at an 80% rate.

     

     

    You see this is were you are wrong about me I think this game is losing subs no doubt.

     

    You seem to think they are losing them willy nilly, I am showing you evidance that shows otherwise.

    Evidance.....wow

    ToR gonna be the twin brother of WAR.....f2p by years end or continue with <200k sub

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