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Did they change the server load rating end january?

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  • FrostWyrmFrostWyrm Tempe, AZPosts: 1,036Member

    Originally posted by Majinash

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm



    Well, every game gets a large spike of subs its first month. Those are the first-triers. The drop-off after the first month is also normal. Then the numbers stabilize, again totally normal.

    The black lines are just there to manupulate the viewer into thinking people are fleeing a sinking ship.

    Honestly I find your arguments very lacking, you're simply attacking parts of the graph, saying it is somehow altering the data by drawing a line over it.  I'd say the best way to call this into question would be to find out if the data set itself is legit.  The graph is pretty meaningless if its based on faulty numbers.

     

    I'm not disputing the graph itself, just saying that the only purpose of the black line is to misdirect the viewer's focus and attempt to get them to see the data in a misleading way.

    Really, why else would you need a graph on top of a graph?

  • MajinashMajinash st louis, MOPosts: 1,320Member

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm

    I'm not disputing the graph itself, just saying that the only purpose of the black line is to misdirect the viewer's focus and attempt to get them to see the data in a misleading way.

    Really, why else would you need a graph on top of a graph?

    Drawing lines on graphs is how you show trends, its not a graph on a graph.  You really don't seem to know what you're talking about, you can't "mislead" with a graph without cheating, and showing a trend is not cheating.  If you mislable, change the scale, or omit data you can mislead, but if the graph itself is legit, any trend you can draw from it is valid.  You're grasping at straws here trying to discredit the graph with no evidence.

     

    The line is there to show the trend, and how the trend doesn't look right.  It isn't misdirecting anything.

     

    Now if you can actually show that somehow the graph itself is flawed, you'd be correct in saying it is misleading.  That is very much possible here as I really have no idea where the numbers came from or really anything about the validity of the graph.  But simply saying "They drew a line to trick us!" is downright silly.

    Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.

  • ZylaxxZylaxx Erlanger, KYPosts: 2,574Member

    Originally posted by tom_gore

    It's not rocket science. The game is losing subs all the time. They do the best to hide it until they have to take action and start merging the servers.

    Happens to all new MMOs a couple months after launch. SWTOR is not special in that sense.

    In fact, SWTOR is not special as an MMORPG in any sense.

     

    I agree but I still believe if they got off their collective arses and fix the problems and start working towards a better tomorrow they have the potential to be a great themepark MMO.  It has tons of potential but its sad that half their playerbase will have quit before they can fix it.

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  • BarCrowBarCrow Tampa, FLPosts: 2,212Member

    Originally posted by Garvon3

    Originally posted by BarCrow


    Originally posted by grapevine

    No.. drop off after the first month is only normal in overblown shallow WoW clones that fail to live up to the hype their multi million dollar ad campaigns generated.

     

    Actually sandbox games generally have a quicker decline, and tank more often.   About the only game to break that trend has been EVE Online, and that wasn't a gradual growth either.  For years (I belive) it decllinded to (and sat at) around 35k active subsciptions, then after a few years shot up to around 300k.   Which is still way less than most themepark MMOs have.

     

    Yes, its a shame sandbox games aren't more successful.

    That's what I never understand when people throw EVE out as a great MMO and the "way to do things" etc. Granted...I see EVE's appeal....the graphics have become gorgeous..full economy...political corruption and maneuvering. True double dealing and loss...as well a true comraderie and teamwork. All more or less in the same malleable universe. I see what it does right.  But its taken almost 10 yrs to this point.... Why the patience for this game but others aren't allowed the same?. .

    Because even at launch Eve was an interesting game doing something new, so it had potential to grow. WoW clones, do not, because by definition, they are clones. Reactionary at best. They'll never break new ground and grab up new players. All they can ever do is become closer and closer to WoW and more polished, in which case well.. people already have WoW.

    And to the person saying themeparks didn't exist... what you mean is that WoW clones didn't exist, thus proving my point that the WoW clone model is the only one that has tripped after launched and steadily fallen.

    The reason those old MMOs grew over time is because they had new ideas and good game design. Contrary to what you'd choose to believe, competition was heavy back then, and there were a lot of MMOs, you just only hear about 4-5 because those were the most successful ones. Good MMOs grow. Bad WoW clones rely on initial box sales and marketing campaigns, then ultimately fade away into nothingness. It happened to LotRO, to AoC, to WAR, and Rift.

        All good points. I'd have to disagree on a few things. Particularly the last games mentioned...aside from WAR which i know little about...I'd say the others probably have just as many subscribers as EVE. Any MMO with  sustainable populations and still makes a profit...pricing structure changes or not...I do not see as a failure.  Also..LOTRO always had a decent pop...probably comparable to EVE ...even before  F2P. Am I 100% sure...no...but I don't think I'm far off mark. They just saw what it did for DDO and figured...more money is always good ..imo. Unlike AOC which greatly needed the revamp. RIFT..I enjoy but definitely noticed the decline on many servers and even transferred my characters to a different ..busier server. I'm sure they all hoped for WOW numbers...which doesnt make them idiots..just ambitious. (and perhaps unrealistic)

    You're definitely correct...many start (and end) as WOW clones but I don't think that always need be the case. I guess I just have hope that some will make positive changes. Actual changes. lol. I'm lucky with SWTOR. I like it for what it is..hope it will make advances in the future. Since I don't PVP that much or ever raid..I have rarely run into many of the issues that bug others. My fps is great in busy areas..the game looks good to me and when I decide to  PvP I have a blast. Is it innovative .. not really..but If any company puts out the same ol' same ol'..i at least hope it looks and runs as well as SWTOR (and RIFT) has for me. If they cant change or add any further innovations..i still hold hope that we will get the full package one day.  Perhaps in vain. Fortunately I am not a one MMO person. I like to jump around according to mood with some XBOX360 multiplayer thrown in.

  • CavodCavod Brookfield, WIPosts: 295Member

    I think the lows are a more telling sign than the peaks.

     

    Also, if you want to show or prove anything, it'd be better to 'line' (lol) out both in comparison. 

     

    http://imgur.com/a/PMo56

     

     

    Lastly, burden of proof...  I only see conjecture to them changing the rating.

    We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.

  • MajinashMajinash st louis, MOPosts: 1,320Member

    Originally posted by Cavod

     

    Lastly, burden of proof...  I only see conjecture to them changing the rating.

    Offer an alternative, this is statistics, not a court of law.

    Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.

  • FrostWyrmFrostWyrm Tempe, AZPosts: 1,036Member

    Originally posted by Majinash

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm



    I'm not disputing the graph itself, just saying that the only purpose of the black line is to misdirect the viewer's focus and attempt to get them to see the data in a misleading way.

    Really, why else would you need a graph on top of a graph?

    Drawing lines on graphs is how you show trends, its not a graph on a graph.  You really don't seem to know what you're talking about, you can't "mislead" with a graph without cheating, and showing a trend is not cheating.  If you mislable, change the scale, or omit data you can mislead, but if the graph itself is legit, any trend you can draw from it is valid.  You're grasping at straws here trying to discredit the graph with no evidence.

     

    The line is there to show the trend, and how the trend doesn't look right.  It isn't misdirecting anything.

     

    Now if you can actually show that somehow the graph itself is flawed, you'd be correct in saying it is misleading.  That is very much possible here as I really have no idea where the numbers came from or really anything about the validity of the graph.  But simply saying "They drew a line to trick us!" is downright silly.

    No, you just dont seem to understand what I'm talking about. Its very easy to use a graph to mislead. It happens all the time. If I were at home right now I could take the graph and edit the black line to point out a completely different "trend" without manipulating the data at all, but its not that big of a deal, and there's no use going back and forth about it like this.

  • MajinashMajinash st louis, MOPosts: 1,320Member

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm

    No, you just dont seem to understand what I'm talking about. Its very easy to use a graph to mislead. It happens all the time. If I were at home right now I could take the graph and edit the black line to point out a completely different "trend" without manipulating the data at all, but its not that big of a deal, and there's no use going back and forth about it like this.

    Yes, you could draw a black line pointing up, but it wouldn't match the graph and would be meaningless.  This line matches data points (peak hours every week) and shows them declining at a rate that can be expressed as the slope of the line.  Any attempt to refute that is stubborn ignorance.

     

    It's ok to admit you don't understand how graphs work, statistics is a shifty field to begin with.  But simply re-stating "the graph is misleading" over and over is... stupid.

     

    Yes it is very easy to make a graph that can mislead, the LINE is not a graph, it is derived from the graph.  But you have yet to point out what is wrong with the graph itself, so all you've done is yell and moan at some data points that seem to offend you somehow.

    Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.

  • jacklojacklo BlackpoolPosts: 570Member

    image

    Feel better now? :P

    Now that's mis-leading.

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    So basically what this proves (if true) is that this sites measurement methods are deeply flawed.

    It further reinforces the fact that we don't know how many people standard or heavy or light means.

    They attach a number of players to the server status, if the server capacity changes then this numbers are now invalid, yet the graph doesn't change the population numbers.


    If anything, this post goes to show how deeply flawed this sites metrics are.


    We can all stop linking their data now, because it doesn't mean squat.

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  • jacklojacklo BlackpoolPosts: 570Member

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    So basically what this proves (if true) is that this sites measurement methods are deeply flawed.



    It further reinforces the fact that we don't know how many people standard or heavy or light means.



    They attach a number of players to the server status, if the server capacity changes then this numbers are now invalid, yet the graph doesn't change the population numbers.





    If anything, this post goes to show how deeply flawed this sites metrics are.





    We can all stop linking their data now, because it doesn't mean squat.

    But the trend remains the same no matter what. You just ignore the numbers.

  • YamotaYamota LondonPosts: 6,620Member

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Look at this image:

     

    See how the two lines show a similar rate of descent. But there is a sudden rise in end january / start february.

    Did they change the rating? So for instance a "Light" server would be a "Standard" server, and so on?

    Don't have data of that period on xFire to compare with. Would be interesting if anyone had.

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  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    @jacklo

    I'm not ignoring anything.

    I'm fully aware of a decline in players.

    What I'm saying is that this sites attempts to attach a number o players to theserver status has always been an always will be deeply flawed.


    The other thing is that these numbers only report on concurrency, NOT total subscribers. As much as you would like to believe otherwise, it isn't true.

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  • MajinashMajinash st louis, MOPosts: 1,320Member

    Originally posted by jacklo

    image

    Feel better now? :P

    Now that's mis-leading.

    Kinda, it still gives correct information, just in a less than intuitive way.  If you had to express that trend you would say that peak populations increase as you go back in time.  Weird way of putting it, but still legit.  I get what you're saying, but from a technical standpoint, still acceptable.

    Everything creates huge amounts of negativity on the internet, that's what the internet is for: Negativity, porn and lolcats.

  • TealaTeala SomewherePosts: 7,430Member Uncommon
    This game is bleeding players way faster than Warhammer ever did.

    image
  • KostKost Vancouver, BCPosts: 1,975Member

    Originally posted by Teala

    This game is bleeding players way faster than Warhammer ever did.

    Proof?

  • FrostWyrmFrostWyrm Tempe, AZPosts: 1,036Member

    Originally posted by Majinash

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm



    No, you just dont seem to understand what I'm talking about. Its very easy to use a graph to mislead. It happens all the time. If I were at home right now I could take the graph and edit the black line to point out a completely different "trend" without manipulating the data at all, but its not that big of a deal, and there's no use going back and forth about it like this.

    Yes, you could draw a black line pointing up, but it wouldn't match the graph and would be meaningless.  This line matches data points (peak hours every week) and shows them declining at a rate that can be expressed as the slope of the line.  Any attempt to refute that is stubborn ignorance.

     

    It's ok to admit you don't understand how graphs work, statistics is a shifty field to begin with.  But simply re-stating "the graph is misleading" over and over is... stupid.

     

    Yes it is very easy to make a graph that can mislead, the LINE is not a graph, it is derived from the graph.  But you have yet to point out what is wrong with the graph itself, so all you've done is yell and moan at some data points that seem to offend you somehow.

    I've already made my point. As I said, you just didn't seem to understand it. Considering your hostile reply after I was the one that said it's not a big deal and not worth going back and forth over, I'd say I'm not the one thats somehow offended here.

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Teala

    This game is bleeding players way faster than Warhammer ever did.

    I don't know how you can come to that conclusion. I think the population is on the decline too but how did come to this observation?

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • grapevinegrapevine PeterboroughPosts: 1,927Member

    Originally posted by Garvon3

    That's what I never understand when people throw EVE out as a great MMO and the "way to do things" etc. Granted...I see EVE's appeal....the graphics have become gorgeous..full economy...political corruption and maneuvering. True double dealing and loss...as well a true comraderie and teamwork. All more or less in the same malleable universe. I see what it does right.  But its taken almost 10 yrs to this point.... Why the patience for this game but others aren't allowed the same?. .

    Because even at launch Eve was an interesting game doing something new, so it had potential to grow. WoW clones, do not, because by definition, they are clones. Reactionary at best. They'll never break new ground and grab up new players. All they can ever do is become closer and closer to WoW and more polished, in which case well.. people already have WoW.

    And to the person saying themeparks didn't exist... what you mean is that WoW clones didn't exist, thus proving my point that the WoW clone model is the only one that has tripped after launched and steadily fallen.

    The reason those old MMOs grew over time is because they had new ideas and good game design. Contrary to what you'd choose to believe, competition was heavy back then, and there were a lot of MMOs, you just only hear about 4-5 because those were the most successful ones. Good MMOs grow. Bad WoW clones rely on initial box sales and marketing campaigns, then ultimately fade away into nothingness. It happened to LotRO, to AoC, to WAR, and Rift.

     

    Not really.   300k is not a lot of players these days, but it is a lot for a sandbox MMO and many actualy hate EVE Online.

     

    1st / 2nd generation MMOs also had "new ideas" by default, as either nothing had come before them or very few.   Just like WoW borrowed from other games, other have borrowed from that and others.   Just because a MMO is a themepark one, does not make it a WoW clone.   In fact the majority aren't close.   Although the most common mechanic they do borrow is its end game style, which is a shame for sure.

     

    Calling a themepark game a WoW clone is little different from calling EVE Online an Microsoft Excel clone.  If WoW clones actually existed, Blizzard would have their developers in court and the game shutdown.  As for LOTRO, if you look at its trend, for a very long while all it saw was increasing subs.  Rift is also concidered by many to be a good themepark MMO.

  • MonorojoMonorojo San Diego, CAPosts: 411Member

    If they changed the server load, it was to increase population required for heavy and very heavy and not the other way around.

     

    The Harbringer is standard atm, there are constantly 80+ on the sith starter planet, and 100+ right now on the 2nd planet. There are 300~ in the imp fleet, and this server is currently only at standard. Empire is said to be about even population wise with Republic on this server also.

     

    Population isn't even close to dying on this server or on Dark Reaper. While not nearly as popular, I see the same thing. I have  a 50 sent (republic ) and population in the fleet has actually increased over the past month since when i first quit the game (Back now cuz WoW is just in a horrible state).

    So on two different servers, both standard normally now (Harbringer gets heavy every now and then), population is very consistent. Seems like this points to Bioware upping the requirement for Full / Very Heavy and that would make sense since they said the improved server load recently.

    I know you guys are gonna hate on this game no matter what so dont mind me though.

  • WickedjellyWickedjelly Yahoo, COPosts: 4,990Member

    Originally posted by Monorojo

    If they changed the server load, it was to increase population required for heavy and very heavy and not the other way around.

     

    The Harbringer is standard atm, there are constantly 80+ on the sith starter planet, and 100+ right now on the 2nd planet. There are 300~ in the imp fleet, and this server is currently only at standard. Empire is said to be about even population wise with Republic on this server also.

     

    Population isn't even close to dying on this server or on Dark Reaper. While not nearly as popular, I see the same thing. I have  a 50 sent (republic ) and population in the fleet has actually increased over the past month since when i first quit the game (Back now cuz WoW is just in a horrible state).

    So on two different servers, both standard normally now (Harbringer gets heavy every now and then), population is very consistent. Seems like this points to Bioware upping the requirement for Full / Very Heavy and that would make sense since they said the improved server load recently.

    I know you guys are gonna hate on this game no matter what so dont mind me though.

    Yeah, I know. You're another one that thinks your server is the status quo for all of them. We got that memo a long time ago. That's okay though. Time will tell better than anything any poster here can try and state what is going on with this game one way or the other. We'll see soon enough...well within a couple months anyways.

     

    1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.

    2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.

    3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.

  • GMan3GMan3 Ewa Beach, HIPosts: 2,127Member

        Tinfoil hat arguments?  Getting old.

    "If half of what you tell me is a lie, how can I believe any of it?"

  • MetentsoMetentso BarcelonaPosts: 1,436Member Common

    Originally posted by FrostWyrm

    No, you just dont seem to understand what I'm talking about. Its very easy to use a graph to mislead. It happens all the time. If I were at home right now I could take the graph and edit the black line to point out a completely different "trend" without manipulating the data at all, but its not that big of a deal, and there's no use going back and forth about it like this.

    Please, do.

  • DistasteDistaste Lancaster, PAPosts: 667Member

    I posted the same thing the other day using a different graph and horrible paint skills.

     

    Feb 4th and after the overall server loads increased for no apparent reason. Bioware also did a hotfix/patch that night Feb 3rd into the 4th. Coincidence? Maybe but I've yet to hear a plausible explanation. That patch didn't contain anything that would cause a lot of people to hop on and stay hopped on. The Ilum patch was a week earlier so that wasn't the draw.

  • RavenspenRavenspen ., WAPosts: 104Member

     

    Here's a monthly graph showing the last 4 weeks of population statistics compiled by mmo-junkie.  One important thing to note is that it's based on a somewhat flawed method of using the server's light/standard/heavy/very heavy with a weighted numerical to asign value to gauge population. 

    This actually isn't a very good method as if all the servers were at the very light edge of their category you would have a vastly diffrent population than if they were at the very upper edge, but it would appear the same on this graph.

    The iniitial launch window posted earlier suffers from a number of flaws.  First there was an increase in the "capacity" for each of these categories sometime near the end of December.  The other issue is you have a large number of people who tried it and didn't care for the game play and quit in fairly short order.

    This makes an outlier point that makes it difficult to gauge accurate population trends, if such things are important to you.

    The weekly graph does indicate a slight drop in weekend trafic over the last 4 weeks, with a fairly flat weekday traffic.  10% week on week declines are no where in evidence, though again this is a highly flawed metric.  There isn't a good way to get accurate population data unless someone figures out how to write a bot to get population numbers from each instance on each server and compile them.

    Xfire tends to favor a certain segment of gamers and therefor is also a biased population set.

    Server populations on my particular server have been increasing slightly, but it is allways possible that is due to people moving off of low pop servers and onto higher pop servers instead of a true global population increase.  I can say that I'm seeing alot more players new to the MMO market than in most games I've played save for early WoW.

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