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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire
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The reason people are resorting to third party charts and measurements is because they are seeing a significant population decline in-game.
When they comment about it in the forums you get fanboys ridiculing every post on the subject.
It's difficult to prove the point without hard facts and these charts are just one way of adding some weight to their argument.
No they're not accurate by any means, neither do they have to be when it's easy to see just by playing the game.
Sukiyaki I think I need to clarify
1. By dividing SWTOR time played with WoW time played I get a relative number (eg. 44%)
2. The relative number will be changed by both changes in WoW and changes in SWTOR, but it should eliminate changes that affect both games equally
3. Even if XFire userbase suddenly dropped 50% or increased 100% that relative number should stay roughly the same. That is assuming that the group who stops/starts using XFire doesn't have much different MMO gaming habits from all XFire users, which I think is a reasonable assumption.
4. You complained that you hadn't seen decline in XFire userbase taken into account, so I posted and pointed out that there's been an attempt to do that.
5. I agree that my numbers don't tell SWTOR subcriber numbers. My table was intented to be an indicator of relative player activity WoW vs. SWTOR.
EDIT: The table was supposed to be titled SWTOR vs. WoW time played on XFire. It looks like the title went missing when I copied it from my previous post. I apologize for that mistake /EDIT
I find myself not wanting to log in to SWTOR any longer. It has become boring, very very boring.
So many excuses - it is what it is - the population is dropping and the trends show it. The data doesn't have to be 100% accurate to show a trend, deal with it people.
Not all people use xfire, so its not really an acuarate number. If it would be total subs and people online and for how long it would be intressting.
Not really looking at Xfire for the numbers though for actual population, but to see how well it is performing. Xfire is good, as it is compatible with virtually all latest games, whereas things like Steam only handles a select few games.
If the figures are more or less the same then it is stabilised - people quitting are then replaced by new people joining. If the figures increase then it is doing good, as not only people are still playing but more people are joining which it should be doing at this stage of the games life, but if it is dropping which it is showing atm, then people are just leaving, which for a new MMO which is supposed to keep you subbing for about 10 years, is not a good sign.
If everyone used Xfire I am sure it would still show that the number of people playing SWTOR is dropping.
During the week last week it was 7001 and below to about 6400 being the worst day, but did shoot up to 7337 for Sunday, which is natural for weekends, although Sat yesterday was about 6900, but last weekend was about 7900 on both Sat and Sun. A loss of 1000 on Sat, and a loss of about 600 for Sun.
STO is doing good atm, http://www.xfire.com/games/sto/Star_Trek_Online/ Although clearly not as many people playing as SWTOR, but it has grown and stabilised, and may grow further. Since it went F2P in Jan 17, over the month, it has been doing nothing but climbing, and now staying around the #20 position. SWTOR is just doing the opposite, and just staying at #5 as there is obviously a large gap between #5 and #6 as oppsoed to games lower in the Xfire charts
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Suki's numbers make sense, yours do not. The numbers you posted are only useful if both games have the same number of users. Suki's at least show numbers based on a per player basis.
People tend to play a lot more when leveling and then taper down after that as there's only so much to do at that point.
The most useful number is the number of players playing the game each day and tracking that.
I'm trying to track NUMBER OF HOURS PLAYED.
If I were trying to track number of people who play each day, or number of subcribers, then I would need to watch the number of players. I'm not trying to do that.
Players per day:
WOW 17,088
SWTOR 6,475
AION 871
STO(free to play) 1,111
EVE 1,141
LOTR(free to play) 908
Guild Wars(free to play) 995
Rift 495
DC Universe 548
Age of Conan(free to play) 173
Ok so SWTOR players are averaging 4.94 hours played per day.
And if Rift is doing enough business to be healthy and stay afloat with those numbers, I don't think SWTOR has anything to worry about. They're not going to pull the plug and close up shop anytime soon.
Anyway one of my friends is bugging me to get on SWTOR. Cya!
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I wish I had 4.94 hours a day to play games :-( lol
There Is Always Hope!
You and me both. Although considering how much I get to screw around on the internet at work as it is I suppose I shouldn't complain.
XD
Just wish my pc at work could handle the games I play
>_>
1. For god's sake mmo gamers, enough with the analogies. They're unnecessary and your comparisons are terrible, dissimilar, and illogical.
2. To posters feeling the need to state how f2p really isn't f2p: Players understand the concept. You aren't privy to some secret the rest are missing. You're embarrassing yourself.
3. Yes, Cpt. Obvious, we're not industry experts. Now run along and let the big people use the forums for their purpose.
The figures for SWTOR are dropping daily, last week it was 7001 for Monday. As people start to reach 50 they seem to be quitting more so than other MMOs at max level.
Also SWTOR is under licence, so would need higher numbers than other MMOs that do not, like Rift.
When they announced SWG to shut down, it had more people playing it than DC Universe. Nothing is safe where LA is concerned. They are no longer wanting to work with 3rd party developers, and Bioware is the last with SWTOR (unless they change their mind again) and unless EA sells Bioware to LA, then there will probably not be a KOTOR 3 at all.
The only thing that is going to keep SWTOR afloat for now, is that they have already made loads of content for it, and has a licence for it for a while with LA. If by the time the licence comes up for reneal and LA do not think the game is working out well, they could pull it like SWG, and then just focus on developing games themselves.
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Really? Who says? I'm sure you wouldn't be taking something a competitor said and interpreting it in your own special way.
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Because that is what happened with SWG and the reason it closed, it was under a licence. Star Wars is the IP of LA, and LA licenece the SW brand to SOE, Bioware etc It is not something that a competitor said, it is common knowledge. SWTOR is developed by Bioware and published by LA and EA, with IP under LA and licenced out to EA/Bioware. Rift is develeoped and published all by Trion Worlds, and is their IP, not licencing involved.
If LA can pull the plug on SWG, they can pull the plug on SWTOR, but who knows whet goes through LAs mind, they seem to do whatever they want, and do not seem very focussed lately, and not wanting to let 3rd party developers create their games any more, which is why there is no Battlefront 3, as doubt if LA created it it will be as good.
Licencing and SOE having to buy the SW licence, was the only reason SWG shut down. Vanguard has virtually zero population, and both the only 2 servers have been rock bottom for years, and when SOE announced the shutdown of SWG it had 4 full servers and the rest medium/light, and could have lasted a bit longer on 4 full servers like they did with DCUO, which only has 4 servers. In fact last year SOE were in discussions to merge servers further with the possibility of dropping down to four. Smedley said in of his interviews about SWG closing, that if SWG was not under a licence he would have kept it going.
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The actual numbers will be more, but It will still give the same loss of activity % even if everyone used it. It could even be worse if more Xfire users play SWTOR than other games
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No one knows that because no one knows actual numbers and retention rates. You are still making stuff up.
You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty -- Mahatma Gandhi
Only because you do not want to beleive it. STO is a game that shows it is is doing good since Jan 17 when goes F2P. It works OK for other games but not SWTOR right?
SWTOR servers are dropping, Full to Very Heavy, Very Heavy to Heavy, Heavy to Standard, Standard to Light - each day, no rise or static activity for ages
STOs servers are getting full, with more and more instances showing up, and being stuck in a queue to log into the game out of 1000-2000 players.
The stats may not be accurate but are an excellent guide
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He is extrapolating, although I think he is wrong regarding the retention rate.
I have recorded the amount of xfire-players and have for January 17. 10336 players and 6475 for February 14. (it's the same week day). It's a reduction of 38%. January 17. is long enough from launch date to not have too inflated numbers and at the same time, no subscriptions had run out.
If I take 2 million players as a starting point, we have 1,24 million active players now. The number of subscribers is probably higher, it's probably not before after 19th of february the next bunch of unsubscribes start. Personally, I think well over one million players is really really good and the retention rate if not the best is very good still.
The are several assumptions made here, for instance that the xfire-players are representative for SWTOR. It was pretty accurate for a Age of Conan, and 10.000 players is a very sizeable sample.
It is a known fact that Lucas Arts gets a hefty continuing chunk. That you don't know that speaks volumes.
Yes, yes of course. One could assume that under NORMAL circumstances that the same number of people would be playing the game on the same day of the week. Unless of course one of those dates turned out to be freakin VALENTINES DAY. What kind of fool would make thier case comparing a two days when one was a freakin holiday. And not just ANY holiday, but one that IF you chose to play your game that night, your wife would freakin divorce you. Really........you my friend are a genius.
Honestly, I am HAPPY that 3861 hardcore XFire gamers were SMART enough to spend Valentines Day with thier partner in real life and not in SWTOR.
(DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)
If I remember correcty, the deal was 30% of revenue to LA after the cost to develop the game was recovered.
35% but also LucasArts provided most of the games voice over work, so in the end, he gets paid upfront first, then 35% of every dollars profit.
Smart man
Last week figures were 7001 Monday and 6547 by Friday (with Thu at 6484) last week. No valentines last week, so what excuse is there for people not wanting to play as much last week?
Actually the figure of 6475 is for Monday 13th Feb.. The actual figure for Tue 14th Feb is 5852 users playing (recheck link in OP). If it goes back up tomorrow, then I guess people did not play because of Valentines, but if close to 6400 or below then it is still dropping, although it may get a rise as people who did not get to play last night will play tonight.
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Heh, my logging is done the day afterwards, so I as comparing february 13th vs january 16th not 14th/17th as I wrote.. I do agree that Valentines day isn't representative. I was wondering why the numbers that appeared today were so low, but you kind of explained it.
I'm actually tracking server loads for the next day, I started yesterday at 6pm PST and tracked until midnight and over all the loads weren't anything to write home about. We'll see how today goes and then I'll track Friday and Saturday and see how weekend goes. Im doing it because I got tired of all the inaccurate claims of heavy and very heavy loads or all light loads. Though I am seeing by and large that the EU servers are mostly light and then go up to standard.