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WoW's Subscription Numbers as of 31/12/2011

fivorothfivoroth LondonPosts: 3,665Member Uncommon

I am sorry to inform all those people who love preaching about the end of the WoW that the game's subscription numbers seem to have stabalised at 10.2M.

So no, WoW has not dropped to 5-8m subs and it is definitely not bleeding subs badly.

http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3312965596 - Original source 

http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=647732 - Report

Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.

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Comments

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    Just like WoW Insider, you're casting aspersions.

    WoWs subscriber numbers have NOT stabalised. Over the last 3 months, a further 100,000 subscribers have been lost. That's not stablising. That's a decline. It may only be a 1% decline, but in terms of earnings... that's around $5 million less per quarter. 

    If in the next quarterly they confirm no decline from 10.2, then the figures will have stabalised.

    World of Warcraft is still suffering a steady decline. The decline may have slowed but it's very much a decline. The interesting numbers will come with the next quarterly. That's when we'll see what the long term outlook for WoW is.

    Personally I'm expecting a further decline. I don't think it's going to be as fast and deep as most, but I don't think there is much Blizzard can do to WoW at this point in time. I don't think their efforts to market MoP at potential new players is likely to work, and I think the next quarterly will vindicate the perspective that WoW has "had its day" at peak.

    We'll have to wait and see though.

  • Jason2444Jason2444 Kingman, AZPosts: 372Member

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    Just like WoW Insider, you're casting aspersions.

    WoWs subscriber numbers have NOT stabalised. Over the last 3 months, a further 100,000 subscribers have been lost. That's not stablising. That's a decline. It may only be a 1% decline, but in terms of earnings... that's around $5 million less per quarter. 

    If in the next quarterly they confirm no decline from 10.2, then the figures will have stabalised.

    World of Warcraft is still suffering a steady decline. The decline may have slowed but it's very much a decline. The interesting numbers will come with the next quarterly. That's when we'll see what the long term outlook for WoW is.

    Personally I'm expecting a further decline. I don't think it's going to be as fast and deep as most, but I don't think there is much Blizzard can do to WoW at this point in time. I don't think their efforts to market MoP at potential new players is likely to work, and I think the next quarterly will vindicate the perspective that WoW has "had its day" at peak.

    We'll have to wait and see though.

    Dont worry! I'm sure SWTOR can take the throne!!

     

    /suicide 

    MMOs played: WoW, Star Wars Galaxies, Star Wars: The Old Republic, Guild Wars, Planetside, Global Agenda, Star Trek Online, RIFT, Everquest 2, Age of Conan, Warhammer Online, EvE online, APB
    Best MMO Companies: Trion Worlds, ArenaNet, CCP
    Worst MMO Companies: Electronic Arts

  • parrotpholkparrotpholk Leland, NCPosts: 3,275Member

    Actually with the launch of TOR I would suspect folks thought it would be much larger.  I know I expected to see a number around 9 - 9.5.  Not bad actually.

  • Jason2444Jason2444 Kingman, AZPosts: 372Member

    Originally posted by parrotpholk

    Actually with the launch of TOR I would suspect folks thought it would be much larger.  I know I expected to see a number around 9 - 9.5.  Not bad actually.

    It's because WoWclones will ALWAYS fail.

     

    If anything, all SWTOR did was show how polished and hashed out WoW is compared to SWTOR. SWTOR will probably end up being good for WoW just like WAR ended up attacting more people

    MMOs played: WoW, Star Wars Galaxies, Star Wars: The Old Republic, Guild Wars, Planetside, Global Agenda, Star Trek Online, RIFT, Everquest 2, Age of Conan, Warhammer Online, EvE online, APB
    Best MMO Companies: Trion Worlds, ArenaNet, CCP
    Worst MMO Companies: Electronic Arts

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    Actually instead of making a new thread, I'll make this comment here as well:

    Morhaime announced - with glee - that the Annual Pass has been picked up by 1,000,000 customers. I don't know if I missed it, but I didn't hear him say that was an increase on standard 1-year subscriptions prior to the Annual Pass being released. It'd be very interesting to know whether the 1,000,000 Annual Pass subscribers are newly generated, or whether the bulk are customers who moved over from 1-year subscriptions.

    If the former is the case - if the 1 mil is mostly new customers to the long term subscription plan - then that is surely good news for Blizzard. If the latter is true - if the 1 mil is merely those that have "switched over" - then it means very little. In fact... it simply means Blizzard have gained little in the way of additional income, or guaranteed income.

    Of course... I'm sure investors will likely see this as a boon, and it will have a positive effect on Activision Blizzard's share price, regardless of the actuality behind those numbers.

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

     I don't know if I missed it, but I didn't hear him say that was an increase on standard 1-year subscriptions prior to the Annual Pass being released. It'd be very interesting to know whether the 1,000,000 Annual Pass subscribers are newly generated, or whether the bulk are customers who moved over from 1-year subscriptions.

    blizzard does not offer 1 year subs - so theres no standard

    longest sub blizzard available is 6 months

    http://us.battle.net/support/en/article/subscription-options

     

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    Originally posted by parrotpholk

    Actually with the launch of TOR I would suspect folks thought it would be much larger.  I know I expected to see a number around 9 - 9.5.  Not bad actually.

    What people have to realise is that no game previously has managed to effect WoWs subscription numbers negatively. If the decline is due to Star Wars The Old Republic - which I personally don't think it is - then it's a big boon for Bioware, and EA.

    As I said... I think the decline has little to do with Star Wars The Old Republic. People presume that in order for an MMO to succeed it must steal players from World of Warcraft. This is a misguided presumption at best. It is entirely possible for a new release to generate new players to the MMO market.

    Then of course there are the "former" WoW players that haven't played the game in months or years. They're certainly a hell of a lot of them.

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    Originally posted by Nadia

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

     I don't know if I missed it, but I didn't hear him say that was an increase on standard 1-year subscriptions prior to the Annual Pass being released. It'd be very interesting to know whether the 1,000,000 Annual Pass subscribers are newly generated, or whether the bulk are customers who moved over from 1-year subscriptions.

    blizzard does not offer 1 year subs - so theres no standard

    longest sub blizzard available is 6 months

    http://us.battle.net/support/en/article/subscription-options

     

    So were the 6 month subs down, or up?

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    What people have to realise is that no game previously has managed to effect WoWs subscription numbers negatively. If the decline is due to Star Wars The Old Republic - which I personally don't think it is - then it's a big boon for Bioware, and EA.

    Blizzard has said WOW has stopped growing for the last 3 years  (since late 2008)

    http://www.vg247.com/2010/02/10/morhaime-confirms-the-unthinkable-wows-stopped-growing/

     

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    So were the 6 month subs down, or up?

    its hard to quantify

    to be eligible for the 1 year plan - you dont have to pay in advance

    you only have to declare intent to pay for the next year   (monthly, quarterly, etc)

     

    if you have a lapse in your payments, you are removed from the "annual pass" agreement and lose your goodies

     

    related thread

    http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/338806/Annual-pass-no-money-taken.html

  • ste2000ste2000 londonPosts: 4,706Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by fivoroth

    I am sorry to inform all those people who love preaching about the end of the WoW that the game's subscription numbers seem to have stabalised at 10.2M.

    So no, WoW has not dropped to 5-8m subs and it is definitely not bleeding subs badly.

    http://eu.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3312965596 - Original source 

    http://investor.activision.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=647732 - Report

    Playing SWTOR for a month made me want to resubscribe to WoW after 6 months break.................I just wanted to play a well made Themepark

  • dotdotdashdotdotdash Llandrindod WellsPosts: 364Member

    Originally posted by Nadia

    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    What people have to realise is that no game previously has managed to effect WoWs subscription numbers negatively. If the decline is due to Star Wars The Old Republic - which I personally don't think it is - then it's a big boon for Bioware, and EA.

    Blizzard has said WOW has stopped growing for the last 3 years  (since late 2008)

    http://www.vg247.com/2010/02/10/morhaime-confirms-the-unthinkable-wows-stopped-growing/

     

    That... I don't get what your point is. If you have one, make it...

  • NadiaNadia Canonsburg, PAPosts: 11,866Member Uncommon

    my point is no game is having an effect on wow

    WOW was not growing and losing  subs -- long before TOR launched

  • slickbizzleslickbizzle Matthews, NCPosts: 464Member

    10.2 million.   So, basically that means 2.2 million people on NA/EU servers.   There may be a lot of life in the old girl yet! 

  • azmundaiazmundai St Louis, MOPosts: 1,417Member


    Originally posted by dotdotdash

    Originally posted by Nadia

    Originally posted by dotdotdash
    What people have to realise is that no game previously has managed to effect WoWs subscription numbers negatively. If the decline is due to Star Wars The Old Republic - which I personally don't think it is - then it's a big boon for Bioware, and EA.
    Blizzard has said WOW has stopped growing for the last 3 years  (since late 2008)
    http://www.vg247.com/2010/02/10/morhaime-confirms-the-unthinkable-wows-stopped-growing/
     


    That... I don't get what your point is. If you have one, make it...

    His point seems to be that everyone knows Blizzard is still losing subs, but only forum trolls seem to -know- that wow is dieing, or "bleeding subs" .. which makes me wonder .. what was your point in this thread exactly?

    LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
    I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already :)

  • VyethVyeth Fayetteville, NCPosts: 1,459Member

    If Rift and SWTOR can manage even medium Pop servers, WoW must have lost something...

    These aren't players just pulled out of the ass of nowhere.. I think the fans of the industry have stabilized, and what you see is more than likely what you get..

    Of course WoW still has the most, but with Rift and SWTOR being down the same alley as WoW, the players that honestly stopped playing WoW (which people don't even if they say they are) are playing one of those..

     

    Basically, in order for the newer MMO's to have populations, WoW has to lose some.. Just how it works..

    image

  • azmundaiazmundai St Louis, MOPosts: 1,417Member


    Originally posted by Vyeth
    If Rift and SWTOR can manage even medium Pop servers, WoW must have lost something...
    These aren't players just pulled out of the ass of nowhere.. I think the fans of the industry have stabilized, and what you see is more than likely what you get..
    Of course WoW still has the most, but with Rift and SWTOR being down the same alley as WoW, the players that honestly stopped playing WoW (which people don't even if they say they are) are playing one of those..
     
    Basically, in order for the newer MMO's to have populations, WoW has to lose some.. Just how it works..

    Theres no way the overall mmo player base has stabalized. Most people were 20-30, when wow expanded the market. Which means most of them are still here .. in theory .. and every day a new set of kids meets that age where games like MMOs become accessible.

    The other reason wow doesn't have to lose a bunch of new customers for other games to find markets is because they already have lost a bunch of customers over the years. Those customers have probably been biding their time with things like Eden Eternal or some crap .. until "the next big thing"

    LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
    I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already :)

  • VyethVyeth Fayetteville, NCPosts: 1,459Member

    Originally posted by azmundai

     




    Originally posted by Vyeth

    If Rift and SWTOR can manage even medium Pop servers, WoW must have lost something...

    These aren't players just pulled out of the ass of nowhere.. I think the fans of the industry have stabilized, and what you see is more than likely what you get..

    Of course WoW still has the most, but with Rift and SWTOR being down the same alley as WoW, the players that honestly stopped playing WoW (which people don't even if they say they are) are playing one of those..

     

    Basically, in order for the newer MMO's to have populations, WoW has to lose some.. Just how it works..




     

    Those customers have probably been biding their time with things like Eden Eternal or some crap .. until "the next big thing"

    We could grasp straws all day trying to figure out "where" these customers have gone, but from my experiences in both Rift and SWTOR, a good majority of them have been previous (and steady) WoW players.. They always make it a point to let you know that through chat.. In every game during the post WoW-era..

    image

  • azmundaiazmundai St Louis, MOPosts: 1,417Member

    well the only other logical conclusion I can come up with is that they are paying for 2 games at the same time.

    LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
    I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already :)

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon

    Blizzard losing 100k subs during the holiday quarter is NOT a good sign. They did not lose subs to other games, they lost subs because the game has become stale,boring, and predictable.  This is the best quarter for them usually and they lost subs. This quarter includes the biggest content patch they have had this expansion, the annual pass, and the usual sub gain during the holidays. With all that said, they lost subs. It is pretty obvious the game is bleeding and that any big MMO releases that takes potential subs/returning subs will really hurt them. I suspect the next quarter is going to be bigger then any loss in a single quarter thus far as far as subs. 

    MoP is coming out probably in Q2, but that won't save them considering there are atleast 2-3 other MMOs coming out that can take potential subs away. (Tera,GW2,Secret World) WoW won't take a huge hit from one MMO, it will multiple MMOs taking a few hundred thousand subs-a million subs that really hurt it and bring it down to the few million sub level that no MMO will surpass again. 

    WoW as a game has peaked both in gameplay and challenge. The game won't get anymore interesting then it already is and the main thing in WoW's favor is that people have invested so much time into it and are unwilling to part with it because of that. Even with all that, if friends start quitting for other MMOs they will quit as well. We have already seen Blizzard's unwillingness to add elements like dynamic content,world pvp, and housing. They are probably saving most of the stuff like that for Titan. 

  • tyrannistyrannis Norcross, GAPosts: 198Member

    They can gain or lose a million or more subs and guess what? They still need an amy or mules to move the money to the Bank. Find something interesting to talk about. 

    ##Best SWTOR of 2011
    Posted by I_Return - SWTOR - "Forget the UI the characters and all ofhe nitpicking bullshit" "Greatest MMO Ever Created"

    ##Fail Thread Title of 2011
    Originally posted by daveospice
    "this game looks like crap?"

  • CelciusCelcius Posts: 1,001Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by tyrannis

    They can gain or lose a million or more subs and guess what? They still need an amy or mules to move the money to the Bank. Find something interesting to talk about. 

    Considering this is an MMO website, and the amount of MMO subs related to the top MMO on the market has a direct impact on where the industry goes from here...I would say it is something interesting to talk about.

  • XiaokiXiaoki White Pigeon, MIPosts: 2,609Member Uncommon


    Originally posted by Celcius
    Blizzard losing 100k subs during the holiday quarter is NOT a good sign. They did not lose subs to other games, they lost subs because the game has become stale,boring, and predictable.

    So, you dont think the release of Star Wars: The Old Republic, the most hyped MMO release since WoW had anything to do with the drop in subscribers?


    Considering the "success" of SWTOR I can see WoW gaining 100,000 subs next quarter.

  • snoop101snoop101 Calgary, ABPosts: 398Member

    I wonder how many people resubbed in Jan or Feb. 

     

  • GameOvrGameOvr Phoenix, AZPosts: 55Member

    Q3 GAAP Net Revenues by Segment/Platform Mix



    Activision and Blizzard:



    Online subscriptions (wow subs and sales)



    for 3 months $336 mil



    Q4 same line which now also includes Call of duty elite memberships



    $268 mil



    Awesome, somehow they made $68 million less in Q4 wow sales and subs, and that includes holiday sales and COD elite memberships, than they did in Q3 and lost only 100k subs which is $4.5 mil in revenue?

     

    ________________________

     

    Between Q2 and Q3 they lost 800,000 subs, and wow revenue declined by $23 million.

    Between Q3 and Q4 they lost 100,000 subs, and wow revenue declined by $68 million.

    They lost 2.95 times more income with losing 1/8 of the subs that they did in Q3. That's pretty amazing.

    What seems more likely, is they lost a ton of high income US/EU subs and gained 100,000 less low income asia subs.

    Hey look! We only lost 100,000 subs!

     

     

    http://investor.activision.com/results.cfm

     

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