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More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

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  • PrecusorPrecusor PalmaPosts: 4,733Member Uncommon

    This has to be the best thread ever.

  • Dren_UtogiDren_Utogi OuterSpacePosts: 1,710Member Uncommon

    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....

    reviews are !@#$ing stupid. Play what you love.

  • Eir_SEir_S Argyle, NYPosts: 4,623Member

    Wait, is this the total subscribers including people who subscribed because they HAD to in order to play the game?  Because I'm seeing "Light" on a ton of servers at peak hours that were standard or high earlier this year.  You're not going to convince me that this game has been as successful as some people wanted it to be.. sorry.

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    Icant even keep up with the misinformation in this thread.

    People keep coming back spreading the same untruths every 10 pages or so. That's just sad.


    I mean I just saw someone post that they lost 85% of their customers during early access. That's insane.


    Shadow's Hand Guild
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  • MartinZMartinZ None, CAPosts: 59Member

    Originally posted by Eir_S

    Wait, is this the total subscribers including people who subscribed because they HAD to in order to play the game? 

    Yep. Every single player is automatically counted by EA as an 'active sub' just by playing the game the first time.

    EA won't give the number of actual paying subscribers.

     

  • Eir_SEir_S Argyle, NYPosts: 4,623Member

    I haven't even paid my recurring first payment yet... I signed up on like, the 10th of January.  I bet they counted me too.  Heh.

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    Originally posted by MartinZ


    Originally posted by Eir_S

    Wait, is this the total subscribers including people who subscribed because they HAD to in order to play the game? 

    Yep. Every single player is automatically counted by EA as an 'active sub' just by playing the game the first time.

    EA won't give the number of actual paying subscribers.

     

     

    Sigh, incorrect again Martin.

    People tha have unsubbed or not started playing are not counted. Confirmed by EA and Bioware.

    Didn't you post this same misinformation about 20 pages back? And didn't we correct you then? Please stop.

    1.7 million = people paying a sub (majority) + people in their free month (minority).

    Deal with it.

    Shadow's Hand Guild
    Open recruitment for

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  • MartinZMartinZ None, CAPosts: 59Member

    Originally posted by Eir_S

    I haven't even paid my recurring first payment yet... I signed up on like, the 10th of January.  I bet they counted me too.  Heh.

    Yep. Until you actually hit the cancel button EA is counting you as an 'active sub'.

     

  • Dren_UtogiDren_Utogi OuterSpacePosts: 1,710Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by I_Return


    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....


    19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

    reviews are !@#$ing stupid. Play what you love.

  • MartinZMartinZ None, CAPosts: 59Member

    How is people still can't grasp this simple math?

    EA has made it clear that they count 'active subs':

    1. People having their credit cards billed past the first month

    2. New players who have logged in to the game(and being required to enter their credit card info) but who have not yet canceled

    Group 1 + Group 2 == 1.7 million

    In your desperation to try to claim Group 1 is 'real big' you are also claiming the game has almost no new players, Group 2,  starting to play the game...

     

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    That's exactly what I just posted Martin.

    I like your cute little attempt to frame group two as people that "have not yet cancelled" though. Nice word play.

    You assume that those 300 - 500 thousand people will all cancel. Silly.


    In reality land, we know that TOR retention rate has been about 65-75 percent so far. So at least half of those trial people should stick around.

    This probably puts TOR's paying subs at 1.3-1.5 million after next month + new players.


    Of course I'm sure some people who are paying now will leave, so maybe the low end of that estimate is better.


    As it stands, based on January sales numbers, we are looking at about 1.4 million paying subs right now.

    Shadow's Hand Guild
    Open recruitment for

    The Secret World - Dragons

    Planetside 2 - Terran Republic

    Tera - Dragonfall Server

    http://www.shadowshand.com

  • dubyahitedubyahite Lincoln, NEPosts: 2,483Member
    Oh, and EA specifically said that group 1 of your two groups was the majority.

    Shadow's Hand Guild
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  • VolgoreVolgore Posts: 2,207Member Uncommon

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    Oh, and EA specifically said that group 1 of your two groups was the majority.

    ...what can as well make 900k subbed, 800k canceled.

    image
  • MartinZMartinZ None, CAPosts: 59Member

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    That's exactly what I just posted Martin.

     What the hell?

    I'm the one who first tracked down the quote the caught EA's silly attempt to claim their 'active sub' number was actually 'active paying subs'. Glad you finally got it.

    SWTOR has most likely 1.1 million or paying subs. That's a mid-range estimate from various sources that put the number between 900k and 1.3 million or so. With about 300k people in the US and 300k people in Europe picking up the game after the first month.

    An decent number that avoided the humiliation of having been beat by WAR's 850k or so after the first month. It also fits with the cries for server merges on the offical forums and the constant drop in server populations people are seeing. 215 servers is obviously many times too many for the current population and its rapid decline.

    It's look like players are quickly abandoning the game and settling in on 15 or so active servers per region.

     

     

     

     

  • sanosukexsanosukex Los Angeles, CAPosts: 1,836Member

    Originally posted by MartinZ

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    That's exactly what I just posted Martin.

     What the hell?

    I'm the one who first tracked down the quote the caught EA's silly attempt to claim their 'active sub' number was actually 'active paying subs'. Glad you finally got it.

    SWTOR has most likely 1.1 million or paying subs. That's a mid-range estimate from various sources that put the number between 900k and 1.3 million or so. With about 300k people in the US and 300k people in Europe picking up the game after the first month.

    An decent number that avoided the humiliation of having been beat by WAR's 850k or so after the first month. It also fits with the cries for server merges on the offical forums and the constant drop in server populations people are seeing. 215 servers is obviously many times too many for the current population and its rapid decline.

    It's look like players are quickly abandoning the game and settling in on 15 or so active servers per region.

     

     

     

     

     

    server stats back up your thoughts as well http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/stats and http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends


     

  • DredphyreDredphyre Los Angeles, CAPosts: 601Member

    Originally posted by Eir_S

    Wait, is this the total subscribers including people who subscribed because they HAD to in order to play the game?  Because I'm seeing "Light" on a ton of servers at peak hours that were standard or high earlier this year.  You're not going to convince me that this game has been as successful as some people wanted it to be.. sorry.

    Well, fortunately what you believe and what the facts are don't  have to coincide. You do realize that server loads DO drop off as time goes by for NEW titles, right? And that this server load shows concurrent players, not total players on the server? And that server load in no way identifies sub numbers? You do realize all of this right?

    How many times does it have to be said that EA/BW clarified their report the next day by saying the 1.7 million figure was CURRENT as of 2.1.2012 date. Why some of you simply do not want to internalize that number is beyond me.

  • Dren_UtogiDren_Utogi OuterSpacePosts: 1,710Member Uncommon

    reviews are !@#$ing stupid. Play what you love.

  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member

    Originally posted by MartinZ

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    That's exactly what I just posted Martin.

     What the hell?

    I'm the one who first tracked down the quote the caught EA's silly attempt to claim their 'active sub' number was actually 'active paying subs'. Glad you finally got it.

    SWTOR has most likely 1.1 million or paying subs. That's a mid-range estimate from various sources that put the number between 900k and 1.3 million or so. With about 300k people in the US and 300k people in Europe picking up the game after the first month.

    An decent number that avoided the humiliation of having been beat by WAR's 850k or so after the first month. It also fits with the cries for server merges on the offical forums and the constant drop in server populations people are seeing. 215 servers is obviously many times too many for the current population and its rapid decline.

    It's look like players are quickly abandoning the game and settling in on 15 or so active servers per region.

     

    This post is factually false or factually can not be proven as we do not have the information.

    1. EA has said 'active sub' = those who are on their first free month + those who were billed.

    In other words, Active Sub = 'Gave money to EA in the last 30 days and indicated that they will continue to do so'.

     

    Rest of '1.1 Million or paying subs' are numbers that we do not have.

    I find it hilarious that you spent 7 lines out of 10 to spew numbers you randomly came up with though.

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • DredphyreDredphyre Los Angeles, CAPosts: 601Member

    Originally posted by I_Return

    Originally posted by I_Return



    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....


    19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

    Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

     

    How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

  • jpnzjpnz SydneyPosts: 3,529Member

    Originally posted by Dredphyre

    Originally posted by I_Return


    Originally posted by I_Return



    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....


    19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

    Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

     

    How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

    Automated profit taking once a share hits a certain price is commonly used by financial institutions.

    You can see where the automated 'sell' kicked in if you look at the stock prices and the large volume of them.

    Overall, it has been a very solid earnings call so I expect a strong share performance over the next 2-3 weeks.

    Gdemami -
    Informing people about your thoughts and impressions is not a review, it's a blog.

  • smh_alotsmh_alot Area 51Posts: 976Member
    Originally posted by I_Return

    lets jump into the time machine ....

    http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/ea-warhammer-online-is-profitable

    Let's not and instead try to act as mature adults who can hold debates without making meaningless comparisons that border on trolling and misinformation


    ^_^

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly


    Originally posted by smh_alot

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly
    I'm not gonna say his statement is right but neither is yours. You are either delusional or simply clueless if you think the factions on most servers are evenly balanced.
    Seriously? You want him to do some factchecking with that line of bullshit you're trying to sell? Think you're doing anyone any favors?
    You're as bad as the poster you're trying to call out.

    Don't behave like a jerk just because I'm saying something you don't like to hear or that messes with your preconception: I was talking facts here and his are simply wrong. I don't know what your gig is or what goes through your mind why you feel the need to insult people who only want to inject some objectivity and sense of reality to counter hyperboles and sortlike extreme exaggerations. But from what other people have posted about the servers they did honest player counts on and from what I found myself, his statements are severely untrue.

     

    I'm not gonna bother to list the many examples that prove him untrue, but yes, a hell of a lot of PvE servers are fairly even balanced with a number of times even the Republic faction having more players, and when faction imbalance does occur on a server (PvP/PvE/RP) I haven't encountered 1 time that it's a 1 to 5 ratio but many times I've observed it's a 1 to 1.5 ratio. The highest I've encountered from the like 20 examples I've seen was 1 to 2.5 ratio.

     



    I seriously wish people could be more objective about things when they're making their case and simply stick to cold, hard data instead of fallacies, ridiculous hyperboles and kneejerk ad hominems.

    You did the exact same thing as him but to the opposite degree. That's the only difference between your two posts. You can get defensive about it all you want but doesn't change anything.

    Your personal experience as his does not reflect all the servers. Yet some of you seem insistant that it does.

    ...and then you want to wave it around like it's a fact for everyone. Mmkay.

    Some servers are fine and some are severely imbalanced. It isn't hard to see that if you look around on the forums to see what people are experiencing - good and bad on their servers.

    But don't let me stop you folks. Feel free to keep pulling these awesome ratios and percentages out of your butts to prove whatever case you're trying to make. Seems to be all the rage these days on both sides.

     

    Try to pay attention next time to what the discussion is about. I was talking about verifiable data that directly contradicted the claim/lie that that other poster was trying to sell. If that person hadn't resorted to lies or extreme exaggerations, my post would've been different as well. My whole point was to say that some servers were fine and that the imbalance, while present, wasn't as severe as some are making of it, certainly nowhere near the 1 to 4-5 and definitely, absolutely not all servers, far from.

    Also, it has little to do with personal experience when you're talking about 20-30 servers where the player numbers were posted from in various threads by several people and that supported what I was saying, where as no example posted supported the 1 to 5 gap for all servers that the poster I was replying on was talking about.

    That's all I was saying.

    Originally posted by Wickedjelly


    Originally posted by zakiyawow

    Good post and we both know people won't stop arguing lol. I can imagine quite a few are raging in real life as well ROFL
    btw, good signature :)

    Hehe...thanks. Yeah, gets rather amusing around here at times.

    I don't even want to imagine what some of these folks are like in real life. Quite a trip I'm sure.

    XD

    Insulting other people simply for disagreeing and inserting common sense in a discussion does indeed say something of the personality such a person has. If you're in real life like you are here, then I wish you luck, you're gonna need it.
  • KaocanKaocan Atlanta, GAPosts: 1,270Member

    Originally posted by jpnz

    Originally posted by Dredphyre


    Originally posted by I_Return


    Originally posted by I_Return



    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....


    19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

    Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

     

    How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

    Automated profit taking once a share hits a certain price is commonly used by financial institutions.

    You can see where the automated 'sell' kicked in if you look at the stock prices and the large volume of them.

    Overall, it has been a very solid earnings call so I expect a strong share performance over the next 2-3 weeks.

    And lets not forget the 'experts' saying the jobs report would say 130,000 when you pulled your numbers, and the market fell for 4 days before then. Or about the 200,000 reported in January and the market fell some more. Or how about Greece, and the market fell some more. Hmmm...nope I guess you are right, nothing in the world has affected EAs stock prices BUT SWTOR. 

    Please.......

    Hell with how bad everyone says it is out there I'm fraking amazed 2 million people had an extra $60 to drop at Christmas time on this game..or for that matter ANY game. But they did.

    (DISCLAIMER - The use of the word YOU in the above post is not directed at any one person in particular, but towards those who fall into the category itself - there is no personal attack here, neither intentional nor implied.)

  • DaRoamerDaRoamer Toronto, ONPosts: 249Member

    Originally posted by MartinZ

    Originally posted by dubyahite

    That's exactly what I just posted Martin.

     What the hell?

    I'm the one who first tracked down the quote the caught EA's silly attempt to claim their 'active sub' number was actually 'active paying subs'. Glad you finally got it.

    SWTOR has most likely 1.1 million or paying subs. That's a mid-range estimate from various sources that put the number between 900k and 1.3 million or so. With about 300k people in the US and 300k people in Europe picking up the game after the first month.

    An decent number that avoided the humiliation of having been beat by WAR's 850k or so after the first month. It also fits with the cries for server merges on the offical forums and the constant drop in server populations people are seeing. 215 servers is obviously many times too many for the current population and its rapid decline.

    It's look like players are quickly abandoning the game and settling in on 15 or so active servers per region.

     

     

     

     

    No one in this thread said they had 1.7 million paying subs, stop making straw man arguments.

    They have 1.7 million active subs.  Everyone understand this is a mix of people who are in their second month and therefore paying and people who are in their first month still and are using their time they PAID FOR when they bought the game. 

    Based on their first week sales, and even by your own estimate of 1,1 million paying subs, they had 80-85% retention rate after the first month for people who started at launch.  This is a phenomenal number.  Why are you then assuming 100% of people who are still in their first month will quit when 80-85% who are in their second month didn't?

    I'm not sure how you're trying to spin these numbers into a negative at all.

  • MartinZMartinZ None, CAPosts: 59Member

    Originally posted by Dredphyre

    Originally posted by I_Return


    Originally posted by I_Return



    19.26  -0.31 (-1.56%)


     


    So much for that theory .....


    19.24 -0.33 (-1.66%) closing. SWTOR continues to drag the stock down.

    Have to quote yourself because nobody pays attention to your silly presumptions?

     

    How about EA stock soaring a few days ago ( up 6%) after the earnings report and conference call regarding SWTOR? 

    EA's stock is down 20% in the past three months. Around 10% since SWTOR was release. And back down another 1.66% today on a 11 year record high for the NASDAQ.

    EA was outperforming the NASDAQ this year until almost exactly when SWTOR was released where it suddenly dropped like mad.

    Even worse EA warned in their conference call that their revenue and profits and revenue for this coming quarter are going to be below expectations.

    Looks like EA knows this game is dying rapidly and won't be the WoW killer they spent all this money hoping to be.

     

     

  • TealaTeala SomewherePosts: 7,430Member Uncommon

    There is no way in hell they retained 85% of their playbase.  I'd bet mylife on that.   In fact I'd bet right - today as of now, this game has more like 1.2 million subs and has lost upwards of 750k since release.   That means they have seen 45% loss in players since the games release. 

    Tag this...and in 2 months we'll come back to these words  I typed, because I am about to make another prediction.  I predict within 2 more months this game is going to be nearing 500k subs.

    image
This discussion has been closed.