If you have played many, many MMOS you are in the minority of video gamers, and you are likely getting on in years.
TOR is marketed toward an entirely different crowd.
They didn't clone WoW's formula to try and take WoW's playerbase, nor did they do it to try and get a huge portion of the current MMO players to play their game.
They did what they did specifically to bring new people into the marketspace. It is in this they have something going for them that only WoW did before.... They have an IP/developer combo that already has a built in audience.
It can't be hard to imagine a 14 or 15 year old kid hearing about a game 'like WoW, but Star Wars' and liking the sound of it.
Just like I can't fathom why Lady Gaga or Michael Jackson is so popular, tastes vary, and the younger always replace the older.
I for 1 would like to see Tor sucessful, with at least 800k ~ 1mil subs.
This will in turn encourage more developers to come into this genre, rather than every mmo after WoW, having around 100k or less. I believe none of us want to see Blizz as the only company left right?
And hopefully soon , a company will really brings something new to the table, where most of us will have real fun and enjoy it.
That being said, i think its still too early to see how many players will truly stay. For me, im still leveling , and may take another month or so to hit 50. By than, most likely i'll not stay.
So lets give this game another 2 months and we will have a more accurate numbers in hand.
1.7 million have bought and registered the game while 300k only bought the game but have not registered yet. If i had to guess I would say gifts yet to be delivered or people still busy with the holiday season given the time period.
Guys, rea my posts in this thread. Much more than 300k have cancelled.
It's closer to a million cancels.
I believe they sold around 2.7-2.8 million copies.
That is your belief. I, however, find it hard to believe they would underinflate their sales to over inflate their retention rate. Though possible, and surely your estimate seems more resonable, I'd still get the feeling they'd be touting the nearly 3 mil a little more if it were true... after all, it is the world record.
and VGchartz..well it is what it is, and that doesn't say much.
The thing is, I know that they know that their success or failure is going to be more heavily judged on retention than box sales.
Bioware has said this publicly many times.
Everyone around here says it all the time.
I think retention is more important than box sales, and so do most who follow the genre. Bioware knows this. EA knows this. The media knows this. Every other mmo company knows this.
It's a little more than my belief too. I'm going by Vgchartz sales numbers as well as EA's claim of 40% digital.
VG shows 2 million sales of boxes. That could be way off, but add in 40% and you have 2.8 million.
Retention looms much higher if they say over 2 million as opposed to 2.8 million.
For all we know it could be 2.5 million or 2.1 million. I'm peanut towards the higher numbers though.
I seriously think they want to brush as many unsubscribers under the rug as possible and pretend they never existed.
If I were you, I'd just give it a rest. The guy you were making all this effort for isn't really interested in all that. From all of his posts it's obvious that he'll never believe that the game has sold over 2 million copies to customers no matter what, and will always keep convinced that the game has already gotten as empty and dead as a charnel house and that there never can be over a million people playing it since everyone is leaving en masse. Kind of a wishful thinking thing, I guess.
It's all lies by 'teh Haters'. The increasingly empty offical server status page, the obvious WoW fanboys who have infiltrated the offical forums who are making up lies about dead servers, entire guilds quitting, being the only player for hours on planets, the begging for server merges, the decline population/activity on every tracking site for the game...
It's all lies...
It has nothing to do with this junk WoW clone with a Star Wars skin bombing with gamers.
If I were you, I'd just give it a rest. The guy you were making all this effort for isn't really interested in all that. From all of his posts it's obvious that he'll never believe that the game has sold over 2 million copies to customers no matter what, and will always keep convinced that the game has already gotten as empty and dead as a charnel house and that there never can be over a million people playing it since everyone is leaving en masse. Kind of a wishful thinking thing, I guess.
It's all lies by 'teh Haters'. The increasingly empty offical server status page, the obvious WoW fanboys who have infiltrated the offical forums who are making up lies about dead servers, entire guilds quitting, being the only player for hours on planets, the begging for server merges, the decline population/activity on every tracking site for the game...
It's all lies...
It has nothing to do with this junk WoW clone with a Star Wars skin bombing with gamers.
Shrug. If that's what you need to believe, suit yourself. To me, it just sounded that you hope/wish for TOR to fail than actual looking at the figures in an objective manner, the way how much you try to 'debunk' the over 2 million and 1.7 million number. Even if the exact same tracking sites you refer to support the official figures more, with figures that are double what they were for other MMO's after their launch.
The thing is, I know that they know that their success or failure is going to be more heavily judged on retention than box sales.
Bioware has said this publicly many times.
Everyone around here says it all the time.
I think retention is more important than box sales, and so do most who follow the genre. Bioware knows this. EA knows this. The media knows this. Every other mmo company knows this.
It's a little more than my belief too. I'm going by Vgchartz sales numbers as well as EA's claim of 40% digital.
VG shows 2 million sales of boxes. That could be way off, but add in 40% and you have 2.8 million.
Retention looms much higher if they say over 2 million as opposed to 2.8 million.
For all we know it could be 2.5 million or 2.1 million. I'm peanut towards the higher numbers though.
I seriously think they want to brush as many unsubscribers under the rug as possible and pretend they never existed.
well, like I say, it would make sense, however I just can't put much weight into VGchart.
I would put more faith into the fact Ricatello was saying the same kind of crap when Warhammer first came out. That has a lot more to do with reality than VGcart I think.
Do I believe SWTOR has 1.7 mil people playing right now? No.
I know that BioWare has a lot of work ahead of them, and they have the luxury of having a core fanbase that wants to come back later when things are better.
When they release an expansion where you can roll a wookiee...forget about it, guilds in all MMOs everywhere are going to take a hit, and if the game is totally ironed out by then, its all gravy for EA.
Simple question, wondering if i can get some assistance;
Game Release Early Access; December 15th.
Full Live Release; December 20th.
Free 30 days start time; Decemeber 22nd. (which means ending free time, January 22nd, 2012.)
Ending of marketwatch q4 report, December 31st, 2011. (game live for 11 days, total)
Straight from the Marketwatch article:
"Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month. "
Per your own post on Dec 31st the game was live for 11 days. The figures they give specifically state "in a little over a month". Therefore it is clear those numbers are current and not from Dec 31st.
There is more to the release than just the breakdown document (I don't know the correct term). It was accompanied by a conference call where they clarified what that number meant and it means everyone as of right now who has an active account.
On Dec 27th Bioware had announced they had 1 million registered users however those numbers reflected the first THRE DAYS after launch. Those 1 million would already be in their second month.
Since they reached 2 million sold since that time as many as 1 million are in their free month, however that number is likely less since we don't know where they stood at the end of Dec.
Therefore using the maximum of 1 million first month players they have at least 700k PAID subs.
However they also state that the majority of the 1.7 is paid subs. Meaning at least 851k subs although that is taking the absolute barest definition of "most".
I have trouble understanding how people are so willing to push numbers from third party sources, that are estimating and guesstimates, as the truth but then refuse to accept numbers given in a report to share holders.
Being a share holder of a much much much (did I mention MUCH!) smaller company, it's serious business to fudge that kind of information in an official report even for a small company... like, drop and bend over serious.
I mean, some users here are more likely to hold Xfire trends as the undeniable truth vs a stock report. WHAT?
We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.
I have trouble understanding how people are so willing to push numbers from third party sources, that are estimating and guesstimates, as the truth but then refuse to accept numbers given in a report to share holders.
Being a share holder of a much much much (did I mention MUCH!) smaller company, it's serious business to fudge that kind of information in an official report even for a small company... like, drop and bend over serious.
I mean, some users here are more likely to hold Xfire trends as the undeniable truth vs a stock report. WHAT?
I have a theory on where there 1.7 million subs are. The game costs 200 million+ to make. People cant seem to grasp where all that money went into development. Maybe just maybe they took some of that money and bought themselves 1 million subs.
EA is most likely reporting 'sell through' like Microsoft does as sold to stores and not like Nintendo and Sony does where they report actual 'sold to customer' numbers.
300k would be the number of units not yet sold.
NPD reported about 550k for December. Double that for Europe. Add 40 percent or so for online sales and you are close to 1.7 million.
And since EA forces you to enter your credit card and start a subscription even if you plan on or eventually do cancel in the first month, that is where the 1.7 million active subs would come from.
Not that I am an insider or anything, but this sounds right to me.
On my server I have never seen less than 150 people on the fleet, even at non-peak times. Ilum and Belsavis often have 2-3 instances, where 1-2 are full.
I have a theory on where there 1.7 million subs are. The game costs 200 million+ to make. People cant seem to grasp where all that money went into development. Maybe just maybe they took some of that money and bought themselves 1 million subs.
/sarcasm
Haha, good post. Very funny.
They did say that all of their employees are required to play the game....
Comments
If you have played many, many MMOS you are in the minority of video gamers, and you are likely getting on in years.
TOR is marketed toward an entirely different crowd.
They didn't clone WoW's formula to try and take WoW's playerbase, nor did they do it to try and get a huge portion of the current MMO players to play their game.
They did what they did specifically to bring new people into the marketspace. It is in this they have something going for them that only WoW did before.... They have an IP/developer combo that already has a built in audience.
It can't be hard to imagine a 14 or 15 year old kid hearing about a game 'like WoW, but Star Wars' and liking the sound of it.
Just like I can't fathom why Lady Gaga or Michael Jackson is so popular, tastes vary, and the younger always replace the older.
I for 1 would like to see Tor sucessful, with at least 800k ~ 1mil subs.
This will in turn encourage more developers to come into this genre, rather than every mmo after WoW, having around 100k or less. I believe none of us want to see Blizz as the only company left right?
And hopefully soon , a company will really brings something new to the table, where most of us will have real fun and enjoy it.
That being said, i think its still too early to see how many players will truly stay. For me, im still leveling , and may take another month or so to hit 50. By than, most likely i'll not stay.
So lets give this game another 2 months and we will have a more accurate numbers in hand.
RIP Orc Choppa
1.7 million have bought and registered the game while 300k only bought the game but have not registered yet. If i had to guess I would say gifts yet to be delivered or people still busy with the holiday season given the time period.
1.7 million can play now... doesn't mean they all do, but there are 1.7 million accounts active right now.
TOR has sold "through" over 2 million copies.
300k have cancelled their accounts, and there are about 300k-400k still in their free month.
It's closer to a million cancels.
I believe they sold around 2.7-2.8 million copies.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
That is your belief. I, however, find it hard to believe they would underinflate their sales to over inflate their retention rate. Though possible, and surely your estimate seems more resonable, I'd still get the feeling they'd be touting the nearly 3 mil a little more if it were true... after all, it is the world record.
and VGchartz..well it is what it is, and that doesn't say much.
The thing is, I know that they know that their success or failure is going to be more heavily judged on retention than box sales.
Bioware has said this publicly many times.
Everyone around here says it all the time.
I think retention is more important than box sales, and so do most who follow the genre. Bioware knows this. EA knows this. The media knows this. Every other mmo company knows this.
It's a little more than my belief too. I'm going by Vgchartz sales numbers as well as EA's claim of 40% digital.
VG shows 2 million sales of boxes. That could be way off, but add in 40% and you have 2.8 million.
Retention looms much higher if they say over 2 million as opposed to 2.8 million.
For all we know it could be 2.5 million or 2.1 million. I'm peanut towards the higher numbers though.
I seriously think they want to brush as many unsubscribers under the rug as possible and pretend they never existed.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
Fanboy projection at its finest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
It's all lies by 'teh Haters'. The increasingly empty offical server status page, the obvious WoW fanboys who have infiltrated the offical forums who are making up lies about dead servers, entire guilds quitting, being the only player for hours on planets, the begging for server merges, the decline population/activity on every tracking site for the game...
It's all lies...
It has nothing to do with this junk WoW clone with a Star Wars skin bombing with gamers.
Fanboy projection at its finest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection
It's all lies by 'teh Haters'. The increasingly empty offical server status page, the obvious WoW fanboys who have infiltrated the offical forums who are making up lies about dead servers, entire guilds quitting, being the only player for hours on planets, the begging for server merges, the decline population/activity on every tracking site for the game...
It's all lies...
It has nothing to do with this junk WoW clone with a Star Wars skin bombing with gamers.
Shrug. If that's what you need to believe, suit yourself. To me, it just sounded that you hope/wish for TOR to fail than actual looking at the figures in an objective manner, the way how much you try to 'debunk' the over 2 million and 1.7 million number. Even if the exact same tracking sites you refer to support the official figures more, with figures that are double what they were for other MMO's after their launch.well, like I say, it would make sense, however I just can't put much weight into VGchart.
I would put more faith into the fact Ricatello was saying the same kind of crap when Warhammer first came out. That has a lot more to do with reality than VGcart I think.
Do I believe SWTOR has 1.7 mil people playing right now? No.
I know that BioWare has a lot of work ahead of them, and they have the luxury of having a core fanbase that wants to come back later when things are better.
When they release an expansion where you can roll a wookiee...forget about it, guilds in all MMOs everywhere are going to take a hit, and if the game is totally ironed out by then, its all gravy for EA.
The over 2 million is vague and I'm aware that Vgchartz is not perfect either.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
Straight from the Marketwatch article:
"Star Wars(R): The Old Republic(TM) has generated 1.7 million active subscribers and sold through more than 2 million units in a little over one month. "
Per your own post on Dec 31st the game was live for 11 days. The figures they give specifically state "in a little over a month". Therefore it is clear those numbers are current and not from Dec 31st.
There is more to the release than just the breakdown document (I don't know the correct term). It was accompanied by a conference call where they clarified what that number meant and it means everyone as of right now who has an active account.
On Dec 27th Bioware had announced they had 1 million registered users however those numbers reflected the first THRE DAYS after launch. Those 1 million would already be in their second month.
Since they reached 2 million sold since that time as many as 1 million are in their free month, however that number is likely less since we don't know where they stood at the end of Dec.
Therefore using the maximum of 1 million first month players they have at least 700k PAID subs.
However they also state that the majority of the 1.7 is paid subs. Meaning at least 851k subs although that is taking the absolute barest definition of "most".
1.7 million active subs is hardly a stretch.
Those are the facts.
I have trouble understanding how people are so willing to push numbers from third party sources, that are estimating and guesstimates, as the truth but then refuse to accept numbers given in a report to share holders.
Being a share holder of a much much much (did I mention MUCH!) smaller company, it's serious business to fudge that kind of information in an official report even for a small company... like, drop and bend over serious.
I mean, some users here are more likely to hold Xfire trends as the undeniable truth vs a stock report. WHAT?
We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.
They cant lie for legal reasons, but they will push everything as far as they legally can. Every failing MMO has had their own Baghdad Bob.
This man speaks the truth.
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com
I think you mean: "Every MMO except WoW had had a Bhagdad Bob".
I'm sure even WoW has one, he just haven't been needed so far.
Lets just wait for servers to level out and that make assunptions, as currently they still seem to be bleeding playtime.
http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends
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I have a theory on where there 1.7 million subs are. The game costs 200 million+ to make. People cant seem to grasp where all that money went into development. Maybe just maybe they took some of that money and bought themselves 1 million subs.
/sarcasm
Not that I am an insider or anything, but this sounds right to me.
On my server I have never seen less than 150 people on the fleet, even at non-peak times. Ilum and Belsavis often have 2-3 instances, where 1-2 are full.
I fail to see any FACTS in OP.
*shrugs*
You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops of the ocean are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty -- Mahatma Gandhi
Haha, good post. Very funny.
They did say that all of their employees are required to play the game....
Shadow's Hand Guild
Open recruitment for
The Secret World - Dragons
Planetside 2 - Terran Republic
Tera - Dragonfall Server
http://www.shadowshand.com